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orwin

4,775 karma · joined August 17, 2017

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orwin··on More than 100k people in Japan are now aged 100 or older
Japan is very much still jingoistic today, and Jingoism is what drove the Lugou bridge incident and the seconds sino-japanese war. While it was imperialism that drove the invasion of Korea and Manchuria in 1931, with a real need for resources and to give land and slave to industrialists, the 1937 war was totally dumbfuckery from jingoist sentiments. Basically Trump, but supported by 85% of the population.

That's why fascism doesn't work btw. They end up believing their own lies and do the most egregiously idiotic shit.

orwin··on Iran school bombing: grounds to believe US was behind atrocity, UN finds
The double tap to me is really what is cruel. I understand americans don't want to hear it, because they need to believe their military is moral, but a double tap to me show cruelty and willingness to target doctor, nurses, firemen and any person courageous enough to help.

The US military and its sailors already showed me everything i wont to know about them when i saw the report on them shooting torpedoes at capsized boats.

orwin··on Iran school bombing: grounds to believe US was behind atrocity, UN finds
The double tap to me is really what is cruel. I understand americans don't want to hear it, because they need to believe their military is moral, but a double tap to me show cruelty and willingness to target doctor, nurses, firemen and any person courageous enough to help.

The US military and its sailors already showed me everything i wont to know about them when i saw the report on them shooting torpedoes at capsized boats. Like i said before, if any US person is on a boat and need help, i will still do it, because anybody not helping on the sea is an inhuman piece of shit, but i will keep my distance.

orwin··on Monsanto's Cruel, and Dangerous, Monopolization on American Farming (2008)
depends on the product and when its applied. for potatoes sprout inhibitors, the old product you definitely needed to remove the skin and every touched part. For the new stuff (i think its ethylène or something like that), washing it is enough (so you can now eat potato skin in europe). I would still wash my fruits just because of the transport though.
orwin··on The Return of Sail Power: Cargo Ships Are Turning Back to the Wind
I think it's up to 24% for rotor sails,no?
orwin··on I can't stop thinking about Papua New Guinea
Yes, I think you're overall right on your description of what is happening, but I disagree somehow with your analysis. My reading of that is that social media 'accelerate' culture, and some of it is towards hateful, violent way. It's not that we come 'back' to animal instincts, it's that some new, emergent cultures push towards violence.

To your other point, I have a friend who thinks social media and online porn drive fetishism, and that fetishism drive a lot of the new 'illiterate' political movements. I don't think I totally agree with him on the illiterate part (I mean, Renaud Camus certainly managed to read Maurras before paraphrasing him, in an objectively worse way, sure, but still), but I have trouble arguing against his other points. He also thinks that this fetishism taken too far will push people towards a death cult, and kill millions

orwin··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
The _only_ illegal move a human might make as a beginner is a failed en passant or a bad castle. And yes, a few hundred games is all it takes to be better than any publicly available LLM at the moment.
orwin··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
That's quite untrue. I taught my (adult) brother the moves, the only illegal move he ever tried against me (over his 6 first games) was a castle with a rook that already moved twice. Within a few hundred games (less than 500 for sure, he played 3 minutes blitz but always took at least 10 minutes analyzing his games) he was rated 1100 on lichess (which is like 1050 on chess.com and unranked in the real world).
orwin··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
A week. My brother learned and was above 1100 online within 12 hours, after a few hundred games.
orwin··on Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes
1100 lichess/chess.com does not represent real elo. I'm around 1400 online, I would still be unranked in the real world. The fact that I easily beat any model publicly available is not a great look for AGI.
orwin··on How much oil-market buffer is left?
The issue is that they never expended the infrastructure, never exploited new fields, their old oil field started giving less, so they pumped more water in, which probably lowered the quality of oil, and made it harder on the refineries.

Venezuela oil also need a lot of refinement in any case, and this is where the US made a mistake, because they could just have insisted on refining Venezualan oil rather than directly taking a cut, which will be seen worse by the locals. Basically help more venezualan crude oil to get out of the field than their refinment capacity can afford, and loan them tankers to sell the crude to US refineries. US corpos could have profited a lot more (and if the US could tax them, the US government could have taken a cut) than this weird, dumb and aggressive position of taking a cut.

orwin··on How much oil-market buffer is left?
Some countries rely on oil imports to produce agricultural products, and suddenly cutting them off the global market would kill hundreds of millions from hunger over the next year. Look at what happened in Cuba. Without china giving them old solar panels and used batteries, they would have revolted already. They still have a huge food insecurity issue for next year, especially if the huricane season gets bad.
orwin··on Israeli Minister Threatens Filmmakers' Citizenship over Gaza Documentary
its a bit above 80% really.
orwin··on I can't stop thinking about Papua New Guinea
Yeah, i'm pretty sure observational studies after natural disasters (those who followed up Katerina especially) showed that it wasn't really the case. Yes, you have looters everywhere (Even in Japan), but most people help their neighbours (or even strangers if those looks non-threatening). Only when you have a central authority figure present and a lot of people you see riot and aggression, hence the reason why in most countries that need help, aid distribution is as decentralized as possible nowadays (centralized distribution is a _really_ good way of having people killed in the mass anyway).
orwin··on I can't stop thinking about Papua New Guinea
You don't really need to go that far. Alimentation changes are enough to force genetic change. Or if you want to go the darwinist/anthropologic way: "https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/yes-homo-mammals-keep-evolvi..."
orwin··on I can't stop thinking about Papua New Guinea
In my opinion,it is more about culture than it is genetics, although I do think genetics are modified by culture in the long term.
orwin··on Oil Executives Say the Great Fuel Crisis Is Here
Houthis were in a weird truce with Saudis and Yemeni government for the last few months. Without US war in Iran destabilising the area, I am pretty sure houthis diplomats wouldn't have been bombed by Saudi Arabia. They might have broken the truce anyway, Houthis still claim south Yemen (wrongly imho, South Yemen is probably the most secularised area of the middle east, probably due to its high literacy rates and Marxist leanings, this would be a really hard sell. Also, Houthis, like Saudis, and former north Yemen leaders, has a clan-based leadership, which isn't a thing at all in South Yemen).

Imho a peace over the old borders could have been possible without additional destabilisation from the US. The Iran war made that impossible. Hopefully a peaceful resolution can still be found, quickly.

orwin··on US diplomat secretly flown home ‘had child abuse images at flat’
I mean, putting your penis in someone who didn't agree is rape. The fact that you use threats instead of using violence doesn't really change what it is.
orwin··on Europe's "Less" Is Doing More Than Anyone Gives It Credit For
Pretty sure it's edited AI. Honestly for dry stuff like this it's okay, if a bit tiring at the end.
orwin··on US diesel hits record $6 a gallon on Iran supply shock
It really depends on the context and the country. In practice, most people in my country live within 100 km of a commercial harbor (river or sea), so 320km for most foreign imports it seems enough. Grocery store chains have to be within 2 hours from the packing center, so for food too, 320km seems enough. Barely, but enough).
orwin··on Teen reading slumps to worst this century due to surge in screen time
Weirdly, what hit me at 14 wasn't the big brother stuff, it was the romance and how sentiments, emotions were a danger in that world.
orwin··on Teen reading slumps to worst this century due to surge in screen time
The best memories I have as a child are 'inappropriate' books (especially 'when I was five I killed myself' at ~12yo and 1984 at ~14.). I always had issues (disliked being touched, difficulties to empathize), but those books emotionally shook me, moved me so much, so hard I like to think I became a better version of me after reading them.

Started doing theater at 12 after Buten, started working as after school counselor for 6 to 8 yo kids and help them do their homework after reading 1984, ultimately becoming a youth camp counsellor at 17. Which were terribly outside my comfort zone, but Buten showed me how to improve myself, and Orwell how to improve the world (or at least try my best).

orwin··on US refuses payout for soldiers who died in Iran 'because it isn't a war'
You ought to remember that 40% of french voted communist in 48. Without heavy involvement of CIA and MI6 to curb the movements (including assassinations), the sentiment would probably have grow, which would have stopped the war (also, now that I think about it, it also means that the soviet are even biggest culprits on this as they did kill more french leftist in 5 years than everyone else combined). The more centrist government also would have tried to get out by 49 without the heavy British investment, and later USA support. And during the peace deal in 54, the milk toast also known as Mendes France accepted a first peace deal that the US then refused, and the division of Vietnam was probably US decision too.
orwin··on A Tesla ran a stop sign and killed a man, Full Self-Driving/Autopilot was on
But, even as everyone talk about morality as an ideal, no one really cares about it (else the world would be very, very different). What most people care about is feeling that things are 'fair', at least the appearance of fairness. I guarantee you that if a company accepts that it's board (or executives) get jailed if their car makes a mistake that kills someone, like any random driver, people will accept it.
orwin··on Carmakers Have a New Idea to Boost EV Range: Add a Gas Engine
Isn't it very old tech? Like WW1 tanks used this, no?
orwin··on My business partner sent a 5K vibe-coded PR that he didn't even test
Exactly what happened in a PR from a few months ago, from the beginning it felt wrong, pytest was moved from the dev group to the main import section. Then imported in our models. To add ignores everywhere.
orwin··on A Tesla ran a stop sign and killed a man, Full Self-Driving/Autopilot was on
Ok, in my country, you actually get your license removed and jail time if you kill someone (usually 2 years, up to 10 if you're drinking).

Let's say Tesla kill 50% less than a human driver, I'd agree to give Tesla's board 50% of the sentence for each person autopilot kills. As an incentive to make the cars kill less.

orwin··on De-Brainrot Vacations
I quit paris to work on the coast to sail at least every two weekends (and took up foiling for the evenings), I'd say I now need way, way less vacations than I used to.
orwin··on US refuses payout for soldiers who died in Iran 'because it isn't a war'
> you blame the US for Vietnam (instead of the french)

I'm all for saying french caused a lot of death and destruction, but the Vietnam war was clearly created by the US during the 1954 Geneva Conference. Also, US-British involvement in France politics during the Indochina war (under Truman: Roosevelt didn't had to deal with Dixiecrats and give racist idiots a new enemy) probably made the 'sale guerre' last way longer that it had to.

orwin··on Americans without degrees are having one of the best job markets in years
They are probably older physiotherapists, or you have particular issues that requires it (parastesias, displaced muscles or ligaments, dropping organs). Modern physiotherapy tries to limit body manipulation to a minimum and will always prefer to give you exercises if possible (sources: 5 of my cousins are physiotherapists, those who couldn't become doctor mostly)
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