>> To be clear, Google does use AI. They use it so heavily that they've designed four generations of training accelerators.
This +100
Somehow there is a perception that chat bots are the only example of AI research or product that matters and all AI organisations ability will be judged by their ability to create chatbots.
This is not a typical VC based company. According the HN crowd this is the one company who can execute on AI and challenge Google and all other trillion dollar AI labs. In my opinion they themselves are aware of the fact they are one trick pony. Given how astute a VC SamAltman is, if there was any thing remotely innovative and defensible about the product they would have never done that.
Generative AI at its current state is still a very new area of research with many issues including hallucination, bias and legal baggage. So for the first few version we are looking at many new startups like open ai, stability, anthropic etc. It is yet to be seen if any of the new breed of startups actually starts to make sizeable revenue. But again there is nothing defensible here unless all the major labs stop publishing paper.
Outside world is looking at AI innovation only in recent times forgetting the entire journey of last decade. If there was any remotely defensible technology in OpenAI they wouldn't have sold 50% of their company for 10B.
Product based on no fundamental innovation is also a path to irrelevance. If there was even something remotely defensible in GPTs then OpenAI would not have sold 50% of company for 10B dollar. Only a matter of time and large about of human in the loop will bring any large transformer model into the same space as shown by recent models like alpaca and vicuña are showing that. Only thing the whole thing has done is no labs will open source any major breakthroughs anymore
>> Overall, I am not convinced this will be massively beneficial. I don't trust Google's ability to execute at scale in this area.
Yes the team which literally created transformer and almost all the important open research including Bert, T5, imagen, RLHF, ViT don't have the ability to execute on AI /s. Tell me one innovation OpenAI bought into the field. They are good at execution but i havent seen anything novel coming out of them.
I agree with this. Last decade was golden age of AI where all major players including Google brain, deepmind, FAIR, Microsoft Research contributed a lot. To honest OpenAI had the least intellectual contribution of them all except of few marketing material masquerading as papers. From now on we can expect all labs to secretive and not publish anything. This is really bad considering all this models are black box and research is needed to understand them better. Hope government comes into picture and forces this labs to explain details of each model
A company like google or microsoft can easily be thought off as conglomeration of 5 or more companies. Mostly in such cases job of ceo is resource allocation and strategic thinking. If those companies can have a ceo then elon can also try
>> Mass unemployment is a likely outcome, but modern states already have amazing safety nets in place and they're not far away from a universal basic income.
very few western and east asian nation have that. 80% of population dont have safety net
Meta can be a extremely significant player in generative AI. Meta owns few of the largest interface of chat UI through Whatsapp, Messengar and Insta. Inserting a chatbot can hook more people in the eco system. You can book your cab or order your groceries through a simple chat in whatsapp. A primitive version is already there but with introduction of LLM Meta can actually build a app store for whatsapp. Moreover Meta has a data moat which is out of access from Microsoft and Google. It has access to 70% of all human chat conversations in the last 10 years
Yes and tech was so path breaking and innovative that the company sold its 49% share for 10 billion dollar /s. Sam Altman is extremely experienced in the VC world and could have easily raised billions for potential value. He wouldn't have sold half of his company within 6 months of releasing chatGPT if there was any thing remotely defensible in the product
How exactly will ChatGPT will revolutionize economy. The best it is doing is summarisation of search result. And search engines exist from 2000s. Yes instead of visiting wikipedia now we get the result directly. At max it can decrease the number of links to click. It is going to change the economy as googles answer box has changed economy, On the other hand the way they hallucinate you still need to double check any thing they tell you. So we can not automate the decision making. Best of luck to you if you want to replace a lawyer or doctor by LLM where they have accuracy of 80%
In that case llm are summarisation tool which exist in every major search engine. I dont see any use case where the search query for black dress or ticket to paris is going to change. Those require fundamental change in either computer vision or 3d vr. Listing the result in text is not a great experience. Those were the queries where search engine earns money. No one earns money in explaining quantum mechanics in rap
I dont think that is a product. Google have created dar more important products including kubernetes, go, flutter as well many ML architecture including transformer
There is no margin for any company for providing solution to coding snippets. Search engines earn money through travel, shopping and digital products. All of them are highly real time, visaul with deep integration to supply chain. Hallucinating LLMs with only text are years behind providing any viable alternative
Microsoft have not shown innovation. They have bought innovative companies at regular interval including github and openAI which is op's point. Otherwise they have blatantly copied alternative and forced them to enterprise companies like Team. Only innovative product from Microsoft itself in last 20 years is VSCode. Contributed significantly less to deep learning and distributed system research compared to google, meta or amazon
This like a great step to moving DL away from Nvidia chokehold. Given large LLMs can take upto few cents per token in cloud Nvidia GPUs, this looks like a great way to bring the cost down
Open AI selling itself to Microsoft is last nail in the coffin for actual useful AI. Microsoft is no different than Google in its lust for squeezing the last extra bit of money.
Even now answers are not reliable. Now we have an extra bit of complexity to understand if the answer is correct , wrong or actually an advertisement.
Google's sole purpose now is to increase profit by > 15% till eternity. No innovative tech can give >15% growth in profit every year like a clockwork. So they attracted bunch of number pushers who kept on putting more and more ads in youtube and search. They started chasing Amazon or Apple in Cloud or Phone hardware. They became 100% competition focussed and completely ignored their strength.
They completely forgot that they are sitting on the next goldmine like LLM. It baffles me the the company which invented Transformer and has the worlds largest index can not build something like ChatGPT. But that is not going increase their profit in the next quarterly earning.
A major advantage Google has is youtube. Most of the content in web for Indian/Asian language is present inside youtube videos. If that content can be transcribed with decent precision youtube can be huge content booster for such language models.