ncallaway

> But for the US, there's no question like that. It produces a lot lot more than it consumes anyway. There can't be a shortage.

It's a global commodity. The reason there likely won't be a shortage in the U.S. has little to do with our production volumes, and has more to do with the fact that we're rich enough to be able to afford the higher prices when many other countries will have to forgeo using oil.

But if we weren't a rich country and we couldn't afford to pay a higher price for oil than many other nations on earth, we would produce and export oil to people that can pay more.

Ireland during the famine produced enough food to feed every person. But much of it was exported to other places, that could afford to pay a higher dollar amount to survive.

Yea, I'm in this boat. My 13 mini has been dropped a couple of times. The screen is still functional, but it's on its last legs.

I spent a few hours researching the other night on what replacement phone I'd buy, and.... the answer was a refurbished 13 mini.

> I really tend to dislike when people outside e.g. the EU comment on our politics

We, uh… started a war that we’re trying to drag many European countries into, and we spent a good chunk of the last year threatening to invade a member of the EU. We’re on and off about trying to start a trade war with the EU.

At this point, you have absolutely every right to comment on our politics, pretty much however you want.

The concept of having a limit doesn't seem too crazy to me, but yea, 5 hours is just so restrictive.

Like, if it doesn't have aggressive idle-detection, I'd eat my entire 5-hours on a pause menu while dealing with an upset-baby.

5-hours/month just seems like it would be totally useless for someone with frequent interruptions.

Ah, and if that person has split their post into several messages, I can definitely read all of them from a direct link to the first message, right?

If I have a link to a local emergency department twitter handle, I can view all of their recent posts, right?

I think the only thing I’d add is some kind of open and standard syndication system like RSS

I mean, I think a small website/blog with an RSS feed would be fine. If they really want it in social media format they could host an at proto PDS.

The context of the thread is public institutions.

I promise you, most public institutions are capable of hosting a web site or running a bluesky account

Yes, "quickly" is obviously industry-dependent. If they were fabricating something extremely easy to manufacture, "quickly" might mean months-to-a-year. Fabricating something very complicated like memory "quickly" might mean years.

That said, even though we might have to wait years for new supply to hit there market, we probably don't have to wait years to see signals of that. We will likely know that manufacturers are starting to build new supply long before we see the chips hit the market.

> There was no way for them to serve the AI demand without reducing supply given to everyone else in the short run

I didn't say that there was a way to do it in the short run. I laid out what the test is to determine if there's cartel-like behavior or competitive-market-like behavior.

I will say, in a market with only 3 players and very high cap-ex cost, my prior is that you're likely to see more cartel-like behavior than competitive-market-like behavior, but that's still to be determined.

I didn't say the build out time was months.

I said:

> the test isn't "how much is price going up" it's "how aggressively are the RAM producers expanding supply production"

> If you have a massive excess of demand ready to pay any price, and a limited supply, of course the sellers will take advantage, that's how any market work

The question is how quickly the supply adjusts. In a free market, the suppliers would respond to the price signal by quickly expanding their production to meet the elevated demand.

But a market captured by a cartel will be much slower to expand the supply.

So, the test isn't "how much is price going up" it's "how aggressively are the RAM producers expanding supply production"

Will they do that for the IRS? I’d love that. Hopefully they can do it for Treasury Direxf too

> Glad I don't actually need to login to my irs account lately.

I still pay my taxes by physical check, because they won’t let me pay digitally unless I sign in with ID.me.

Under the prior administration things were moving slowly toward login.gov for every federal service.

I’m really sad to see that’s yet another thing the current administration is destroying

They didn’t. The federal government has login.gov which things were slowly consolidating towards.

ID.me is a private third party system, that I won’t ever use.

My understanding (based on my memory of a leaked DSP contract that I’m having trouble finding again) is that if you’re a branded DSP, then you must lease the vehicle from Amazon, and you may not use the Amazon vehicle for any purposes other than Amazon deliveries.

My memory is the DSP itself is not required to be exclusive to Amazon, but an Amazon branded vehicle can’t be used for purposes other than Amazon deliveries.

Does Amazon require the contractor to have the contractors drivers wear Amazon branded vests?

What if the DSP is a single-person company? Then the DSP and the driver are the same person. In that case, is it Amazon or the DSP requiring the driver to wear Amazon livery?

How big was the savings from delaying pension contributions and how big was the budget deficit?

Yes, delaying pension contributions was absolutely a fudge, but it’s not like that was 100% of the gap for going from a large deficit to a balanced budget.

Amazon has already consolidated that power. They’ve just done it in a way where they are able to shirk some liability and maintenance costs onto their employees.

They’ve problem is that most of these are not really small businesses, in the same way that most Uber drivers aren’t really a small business.

They don’t drive a generic truck, they drive an Amazon branded truck, often an Amazon financed truck, often a vehicle specific to Amazon deliveries.

Can they use the Amazon-truck they financed from Amazon for non-Amazon deliveries?

This video isn’t an attempt to get elected, since he’s six months into a term.

It’s an attempt to build political support for passing a specific piece of legislation. It’s not “vaguely defined”, it refers to a specific bill that he wants to pass that has legislative text available on the internet.

Fireworks.ai has ZDR and hosts Kimi K3

I've found I can get quite a bit of use out of it as a basically ever-present rubber duck.

Using a cheap model, I usually spend < $1-$2 per day (on API billing) using it a model like.

- here's the problem I'm trying to solve:

- here's my initial plan for the design:

- is there anything I'm not thinking about or my plan is missing?

It'll occasionally pop out a suggestion that I like more than my original plan, or it'll give me some new angles to think through the original plan.

The link beat you to it:

> It is not fast — about 16 seconds per token on our M1 Max

Well, R&D costs are able to make their way into the pricing due to the artificial supply restriction.

If supply was not artificially restricted (through patents), then competitors would be able to manufacture the drug, supply would expand, the price would collapse, and the original inventor would not be able to recover their R&D costs.

Okay? Does that disagree with anything I wrote?

My point was to whether it was artificial not whether it was bad.

We can have artificial interventions in markets, and that can be a net benefit and a good thing.

I’m not sure why everyone is responding as if “artificial” and “bad” are the same thing

The government backed monopoly to ensure that supply remains artificially restricted to ensure that the market will support the higher prices is

And were those risks adequately communicated to the people taking them? According to the story, they weren't.

That's a Big Fucking Deal, and is absolutely a significant part of the story.

Was that in the headline?

> Headline is the whole story.

That's just not true.

From the article:

> According to official documents and accounts provided by the girl’s parents, the hospital had allowed Qiu’s experimental treatment to proceed under a regulatory provision that does not require approval from national regulators. After the child’s death, the hospital paid a modest fine to a local health authority but Qiu was not publicly sanctioned.

That's not in the headline, but is an important part of the story. Also from the article:

> Seven experts in fields including genetics, virology, and bioethics who reviewed details of the Nature study and the clinical trial for Science and Retraction Watch expressed concern that Qiu and his team downplayed the trial’s risks in describing them to the parents, overlooked safety signals in animal studies, and proceeded even though success was unlikely.

Also not in the headline, but also an important part of the story. Finally:

> The girl’s parents, who requested that Science use pseudonyms for them and their daughter for privacy reasons, have decided to tell her story now because they are angry about what they feel is a lack of accountability by the researchers and the institutions. “Learning the reality of these missing safeguards has fundamentally changed how we now view the entire project,” says the father, a software engineer. He asked that he be called Jason, his wife Linda, and their daughter Mei (Chinese for “beautiful”). “We did not realize how unusual and dangerous many of the arrangements were.”

Also not in the headline, also an important part of the story.

I mean, yes, but also won't publicly tell people about that. There's never going to be a marketing page for that advertising program.