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marc__1

6,967 karma · joined October 24, 2019

Ichi-go ichi-e 一期一会,

“Be curious, not judgmental” – Walt Whitman

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marc__1··on My love-hate affair with technology
But still eats genetically modified food, uses airplanes and electric vehicles, his home is (probably powered by the utility grid) and uses the internet to work.

I hate how technology only relates to his personal computer

marc__1··on Berlin, a divided city. The events of 60 years ago
> the idea of a city split into two

We see this more often than not. The modern version just omit the walls

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/2020-electio...

> physical barrier could affect the spread of information Don't you think that there is a component of physical barrier in today's internet? while this may sound odd for the Americans, this is very typical in many parts of the world (East Europe, Asia and parts of Africa and Latin America)

marc__1··on Unity to acquire Parsec for $320M
Unity can always cross-sell their services

from the press release

"Parsec has become a go-to solution for hybrid work models among gaming companies such as Electronic Arts, Ubisoft and Square Enix and is integrated in many of the industry verticals where Unity sells solutions, including media and entertainment, architecture and design, and more. Together, Unity sees an opportunity to drive shared momentum with these customers through targeted cross-selling and bundled solutions."

marc__1··on Show HN: Alias – Google Alerts for your favorite people
Can't you build workflows for auto addition? This way, your platform would have exponential more content and therefore interest

- if more than x ppl searching for a person then add

- if more than x followers on twitter

- if more than x citations on google scholar

You get the point.

marc__1··on Facebook users said no to tracking, and now advertisers are panicking
there are some reasons behind that, including liability on Apple's side

https://9to5mac.com/2021/04/27/what-does-ask-app-not-to-trac...

https://www.reddit.com/r/ios/comments/ma7gwx/why_does_it_say...

marc__1··on Ever Given: Egypt agrees deal to release ship that blocked Suez Canal
For those curious, the list of books that cover the geopolitics of the Suez Canal (way before the current one) is extensive and include:

Blood and Sand: Suez, Hungary, and Eisenhower's Campaign for Peace

The Suez Crisis: The History of the Suez Canal’s Nationalization by Egypt and the War that Followed

1948: The First Arab-Israeli War

marc__1··on Launch HN: Flowly (YC S21) – Manage pain using VR and biofeedback
How to do compare your approach with the likes of Sana Health?

Congrats for the launch!

marc__1··on Off the Grid Messenger
You are pretty much describing pager 2.0. Interesting how the world goes around
marc__1··on South African Brothers Vanish, and So Does $3.6B in Bitcoin Exit Scam
you don't need to go that far back in time to find banking issues basically in every major geography, with different kinds of currencies, digital or not.

Case in point:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danske_Bank_money_laundering_s...

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/21/europe/vatican-bank-money-lau...

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/bank-julius-baer-agrees-pay-m...

marc__1··on Towing a Tesla at 70 MPH replenishes battery at fast charger rates
@Peloton, here is your next big idea
marc__1··on What would you pay for autonomous driving? Volkswagen hopes $8.50 per hour
This pricing strategy is as common for the auto industry as in any other: [1] "If one company bundles products, its competitors are always better off not bundling; the thing to avoid is a head-to-head competition wherein the only way to get an edge is by cutting prices"

If/when VW unbundles their pricing, another auto player will come up with a alternative version of that, and it is to consumers/gov. To decide if this is fair and advantageous.

[1] https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/bundling/

marc__1··on Etsy to buy fashion reseller Depop for $1.63B
Apparently there were many other billion dollar acquisition bids turned down

Mark Zuckerberg Turned Down Yahoo's $1 Billion https://www.inc.com/allison-fass/peter-thiel-mark-zuckerberg...

Discord reportedly rejects Microsoft's $12 billion acquisition offer https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/business/microsoft-12-bill...

Amazon and Alibaba have approached 5-year-old startup Wish, but the CEO seems to want more than $10 billion https://www.businessinsider.com/wish-rumored-to-reject-acqui...

marc__1··on Apple Watch Likely to Gain BP, Blood Glucose, and Blood Alcohol Monitoring
You can check out the claims that Rockley Photonics (Apple sensor supplier for the watch) made in their SPAC presentation or their patents

https://rockleyphotonics.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Rock...

https://patents.justia.com/assignee/rockley-photonics-limite...

marc__1··on Darktrace Jumps 40% on IPO
You have to download the Darktrace Prospectus @ their IR website https://ir.darktrace.com
marc__1··on Darktrace Jumps 40% on IPO
> Have these guys filed for any patents?

From their IPO Prospectus:

As of 31 December 2020, the Group had 10 issued patents, with the majority granted in the United States. As of 31 December 2020, the Group had also applied for a further 52 patents, which are pending. The majority of filings are primarily machine learning and AI focused. Of the Group’s patent portfolio, many of the patents are related to multiple focuses, and are related to cyber security tools and AI augmented workflows, mathematics and autonomous response, email security, cloud and SaaS, industrial and endpoint security

marc__1··on Darktrace Jumps 40% on IPO
There are some very interesting nuggets from their IPO prospectus, which if misleading could eventually turn to 'securities fraud' [1] [2]

> Approximately 74% of Darktrace’s trial deployments in 2020 detected serious vulnerabilities that very often had evaded other defences and quickly demonstrate to prospective customers the comprehensive nature of the AI driven technology.

>The Cyber AI Platform’s average set up time is one hour and the machine learning gains visibility through software sensors that analyse raw, real-time data.

>The Enterprise Immune System and Industrial Immune System use self-learning AI technology to spot the subtle signals of sophisticated attacks and do not rely on traditional rules and signatures to help detect attacks and defend against them. The Cyber AI Analyst product augments human cyber security teams, by automatically triaging, interpreting and reporting on security incidents. The Directors believe Darktrace Antigena is the first solution to use autonomous response to interrupt detected attacks

[1] https://ir.darktrace.com [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-26/everyt...

marc__1··on Stripe will acquire TaxJar to help internet businesses with tax compliance
Interesting target. Curious to why they haven't gone after Avalara (who has greater depth in tax compliance and more customers)?

Now, what is the next acquisition? AR/AP, billings, loans?

And any insight into potential regulatory scrutiny or the regulator only 'care' about what big tech does (and Stripe is $100b+)

marc__1··on Spotify is killing the open podcast ecosystem (2020)
Will offer some data points from Spotify's Investor Relations [1] that add some additional color to the anecdotes from previous comments:

- Total MAUs grew 27% Y/Y to 345 million in the quarter (...) Based on the behavior we see when users first join Spotify, we are confident that podcast usage has been a factor in the accelerated net additions.

- The strength in Ad-Supported revenue was led by our Podcast, Direct, and Ad Studio channels, with Podcast and Ad Studio both growing over 100% on a Y/Y basis. Podcast performance benefited from strong underlying demand from advertisers with a 50% increase in the number of companies spending in this channel vs. Q3

- As of Q4, we had 2.2 million podcasts on the platform (up from more than 1.9 million podcasts in Q3). Of note, 25% of our Total MAUs engaged with podcast content in Q4 (up from 22% of MAUs in Q3 2020

So the short answer is that podcasts help increase usage of the platform (and with better margins than music, probably due to copyright and leverage of artists vs. content creators)

[1] https://investors.spotify.com/financials/default.aspx

marc__1··on Proposed acquisition of ARM Limited by NVIDIA: public interest intervention
Public-traded companies are independent, so no merger or consolidation applies. Here is what the U.K. regulatory body defines a 'relevant merger' (regardless if U.K. or internationally-based):

the creation of a relevant merger situation as defined in section 23 of the Enterprise Act 2002 (“the Act”), in that:

(a) two or more enterprises will cease to be distinct;

(b) in the course of the enterprises ceasing to be distinct, a person or group of persons will bring a relevant enterprise (as defined in section 23A of the Act) under their ownership or control; and

(c) the value of the turnover in the United Kingdom of the enterprise being taken over exceeds £1 million.

marc__1··on Time flies in Google Earth’s biggest update in years
in this case you should definitely read Vaclav Smil book Growth.

It covers how similar growth patterns can be identified, from cities, vegetation, motors and human life.

It is a long book, but recommended by none other than gates [1]

[1] https://www.gatesnotes.com/Books/Growth

marc__1··on A skeptic’s take on Neuralink and other consumer neurotech
"It takes 20 years to become an overnight success." - Eddie Cantor

SpaceX took nearly fifteen years to become the beast it is and Tesla took eight to increase deliveries from 2,600 to 500,000. Don't underestimate what these companies achieve in the long-term and we are always terrible to predict exponential growth (from pandemics, to EV, to space flights)

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/science/spacex-falc...

[2]https://www.statista.com/chart/8547/teslas-vehicle-deliverie...

marc__1··on Coinbase Independent Directors Have Close Company Ties
A company cannot identify an independent board member randomly. There are laws for that as well:

e.g. * When determining whether the members of a committee of the board of directors are independent, the registrant's definition of independence that it uses for determining if the members of that specific committee are independent in compliance with the independence standards applicable for the members of the specific committee in the listing standards of the national securities exchange or inter-dealer quotation system that the registrant uses for determining if a majority of the board of directors are independent. If the registrant does not have independence standards for a committee, the independence standards for that specific committee in the listing standards of the national securities exchange or inter-dealer quotation system that the registrant uses for determining if a majority of the board of directors are independent.*

https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/229.407

marc__1··on Google’s copying of the Java SE API was fair use [pdf]
Oracle's response[1]:

"The Google platform just got bigger and market power greater — the barriers to entry higher and the ability to compete lower. They stole Java and spent a decade litigating as only a monopolist can. This behavior is exactly why regulatory authorities around the world and in the United States are examining Google's business practices."

- Dorian Daley, Executive Vice President and General Counsel, Oracle

[1]https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oracle-statement-re...

marc__1··on Ask HN: How do you grow a pod?
Hey Justin,

I see podcasts just like businesses and I am not as successful in either as you are, so you can take my advice with a grain of salt, so here are my basic 2 cents:

- You currently target a very specific target audience with your 'happiness beyond success' tagline (I personally liked the Cuban episode a lot). I suspect that the 1% of the 1% currently thinks about this important topic on a constant basis, and this may limit your 'TAM'.

- Your guests are focused on business and tech so people who don't know who Laura Wu or Emmett Shear are may not be enticed to listen to the episodes. Thus, you could expand your guests from other industries who also speak their minds about mental health, success and life beyond success (e.g. Michael Phelps in sports, Demi Lovato in music, the Kardashian family in entertainment/business).

- you can explore shorter versions for different platforms (speculative, but maybe Spotify users listen to longer pods compared to Youtubers who prefer shorter videos)

marc__1··on Tesla Q1 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries
I believe they don't have yearly production goals, but Musk has stated that they aim at growing at 50% over the long-term [1]. These are some snippets for short-term forecasting from Tesla Q4 Earnings:

'Over the past few weeks, we have been upgrading our Freemont Factory to launch the new Model S and Model X'

'Gaga Shanghai has demonstrated the ability to sustain Model 3 production at or above a run rate of 250,000/year'

[1]https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020....

[2]https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/1LRLZK_2020_Q4_Quarterly_...

marc__1··on The American Jobs Plan
The focus here should be in the supply side by improving the potential GDP of the country and overall productivity. These investments are by nature long-term and will help the country build a lot of things, regardless of short-term jobs that will be created
marc__1··on Rents for the rich are going down, rents for the poor are going up. Why?
That is a great question and one that the book speaks about. Some points to consider without going too deep:

- Italians and other European communities also faced with xenophobia and racism. Italians even founded 'the bank of Italy' (which is now BofA) because there were lack of institutions who financed and provided debt to them. Some laws have deliberately pushed to integrate white europeans to 'white american' society.

- Blacks had and still have to face systemic ('redlining' districts, 'G.I Bill, 'Civil Rights', etc) and unofficial racism. As a result, Black-owned banks typically face larger cost of debt, have larger liquidity requirements (small deposits and shorter withdraw periods) and more strict mortgage rules. We all know what happened.

PS: there is still a lot of poverty traps for other immigrants and minority groups. We are still far away from what needs to be done

marc__1··on Discord exploring sale that could be worth more than $10B
There are so many 'good fits' as you can fit almost any narrative in a ppt

Potential acquirers I could think: Roblox, Elic, SalesForce (Slack), Twilio (Segment CRM), Twitter, Zoom, Peloton (?)

marc__1··on Rents for the rich are going down, rents for the poor are going up. Why?
A book that goes deeper into this conversation is The Color of Money: Black Banks and the Racial Wealth Gap

Well worth the read, the story had a lot of nuances

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34758210

marc__1··on SoftBank-backed Greensill Capital is on the brink. 50k jobs could be at risk
> can sustain an unsustainable business model much longer

What is the data you have to back that any of these business are unsustainable: Uber, Guardant Health, Doordash, 10X Genomics, Slack, Opendoor, Seer, Beike?

I don't and the broader market neither. If you do, shorting is a great strategy to give you an outsize payoff

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