lowdest

Not 100% true. It's a small market full of inexperienced investors. It's easy enough to play it as such and come out a winner. For example, all the price movements are exaggerated because novice investors lack emotional control -- they get too greedy when the price is going up (magnifying the upward trend) then sell in a panic when the trend starts to reverse.

I often make better returns in a sideways crypto market than buy-and-hold gives me in the stock market.

Anecdote: I self-experimented with binaural beats some years ago. I did not notice anything regarding concentration, but I did find that tones starting in the normal awake/aware range and sliding linearly down to the slower, deep sleep range over 15-20 minutes would reliably cause me to fall asleep.

I ultimately layered that audio behind a guided meditation relaxation track I found online and used the combination as a sleep aid for a few years.

> since anyone with even a fleeting interest in "life extension" or "anti aging" would have a comprehensive, extremely intense exercise regimen ... Right ?

Absolutely. And my adherence to it is at least as fleeting.

If this is interesting to you, I highly recommend "Science & Futurism with Isaac Arthur" available on Youtube and in other formats.

Thanks. This is what I would have liked to write the first time, but I was about 12 hours late with the follow up and missed the front page activity.

I was also disappointed that this article made it to publishing on Bloomberg for the same reason.

That's basically my guess. Since volume is comparatively low on Kraken USD-USDT, an algorithmic trader with a large bankroll clearly stands out. It might be one of the parties with a financial interest in maintaining the USD parity, or it could just be someone placing bets that the parity will continue.

What I meant was that my code makes hundreds or thousands of trades with the exact same extended decimal number. I'll use that trade size for several days and hundreds of trades per day before I update to another trade size.

I'm suggesting one or more of the authors and whoever proofread this article before publication do not understand limit order books, and they therefore don't understand this particular market at the micro level.

Everything they have highlighted in the red and green graphs in the latter half of the article can be explained by a completely ordinary order flow. Much weirder stuff happens in the order books every day: iceberg orders that appear small but are bottomless, giant walls that retreat as soon as they're touched, spoof orders that are placed and canceled repeatedly. None of that funny stuff is in evidence here.

Let's focus on one particular error from the article and I'll explain the misunderstanding behind it. Take a look at the diagram titled "Tether-USD Trades on May 9 From 20:59:13 to 21:01:00 GMT." If you don't understand the two prices of a limit order book, you might think that diagram shows 7 different price movements. But in fact, there are only two price movements: when the Ask price moves from .9991 to .9992, and when the Ask price moves from .9992 back to .9991. Something to remember about limit order books: market buy orders will execute at the Ask price, which is at least one increment higher than the Bid price. Market sell orders will execute at the Bid price, which is at least one increment lower than the Ask price. Why can't the Ask and Bid prices be the same? If you had a limit buy order on the books at $100 and a limit sell order on the books also at $100, they match to each other, cancelling each other out until only one type of order (buy or sell) is left at the contested price. When looking at a price history graph like this, what is actually plotted is the Last Executed Price. If the Bid and Ask prices are completely static, the price history will show oscillation between the Bid and Ask prices as market buy orders and market sell orders are executed in turn. The gap between the Bid and Ask prices at a point in time in the order book is called the Bid-Ask Spread. An important point is that when the Bid and Ask are not moving, the Last Price graph will still show oscillation across the Bid-Ask Spread.

So now look again to the diagram caption: "Multiple sell orders of exactly 13,076.389 are executed, and the price didn’t budge..." What this means is that there was more than 183,076.46 in buy limit orders at the Bid price of $0.9990, which is fairly typical to witness. Certainly not evidence of manipulation or even out of the ordinary. The second caption "...but a buy order of just 75 moved the price up .0001" is more problematic. Neither the Bid price nor Ask price has actually moved in response to the size 75 order, this is just the normal oscillation across the Bid-Ask Spread. Furthermore the minimum price increment on Kraken is 0.0001, so the minimum any buy order following a sell order can move the Last Price is 0.0001 (barring a simultaneous drop in the Ask price.) Let me repeat: Unless the Ask price drops, any and all buy orders following a sell must move this price graph upward by at least .0001 by definition. This appears to be lost on the authors, who highlight the .0001 move upward as something notable, an outsized price move for such a small order. They might be shocked to discover that a size 0.01 order would also move the price graph upward as much as the size 75 order.

>He can’t wrap his mind around why orders for 13,076.389 Tethers keep popping up on Kraken. “No human would enter that order,” he said. “It doesn’t make sense.”

I'm a small time automated trader, and I've made many thousands of orders that extend out to 5 or more decimal places. There's nothing unusual about this to me. My code will take a single uneven dollar amount and make X equal trades out of it. Every few days I add an uneven amount of profit back into the original amount and then I'm trading a new 5+ decimal place dollar amount.

>On May 9, eight sell trades for 13,076.389 Tethers each occurred in succession over 16 seconds, yet Tether’s price was unchanged at 0.999. The next trade—for just 75 Tethers—pushed the price up 0.0001.

Is this not just the bid-ask spread? Of course sell trades and buy trades execute at different prices, that's how a limit order book works.

The concern around Tether may well be justified, but some of the things I've seen presented as evidence suggest a lack of understanding about what normal exchange activity can look like.

Lately, when I'm otherwise in a good place mentally, I keep the pattern going with:

1. 20 minutes minimum of cardio exercise per day. I avoid doing too much, as being physically exhausted has a negative effect on my next-day energy levels. Physical exhaustion can be useful as a mental reset though if I'm feeling overwhelmed.

2. Lots of fruits and vegetables. I think I'm happier when my gut bacteria are happy.

3. Proper sleep. Being well rested decreases my overall anxiety level. For me this means limiting alcohol, no caffeine past 2pm, and blackout curtains. I take melatonin when I feel like I need it.

>I can't speak to how long you have to be clean to pass a test

Several days at least. Weekend smokers are out.

Get a mortgage (or otherwise use dollar debt.) The dollars that you owe will shrink.

The ResEdit days! I changed every sound in Marathon to the point it was unplayable. I had no idea what I was doing but I was fascinated.

The SEC has rules for what constitutes legal and illegal insider trading: https://www.sec.gov/fast-answers/answersinsiderhtm.html

Generally though, the rules don't disallow average employees from guessing about the future stock price. It becomes illegal insider trading if somehow you had obtained material non-public information to make the decision.

I was wondering if that would be an issue. It might be worthwhile to present it to the factory as something else. E.g. a quadcopter part presented as handheld fan for hot weather.

The one advantage you have is that your competitors aren't aware of you yet, so use that time to prepare. I'd say either pursue minimum-cost overseas manufacturing right away, before you have competition, or position your brand to be higher quality than Chinese imports.

30% of a 2000-calorie diet is going to be 150g of carbohydrates per day. Not very low carb at all.

A brilliant thing about the current state of cryptocurrency markets is that you can buy $10 at a time and the fees are a fixed small percent rather than e.g. a flat $5. GDAX has 0.25% market orders and 0% on limit orders. Trading small amounts on the traditional stock market is between impossible and pointless.

How does a wash trade pump the price any differently than just using a large buy order?

>And since transaction costs and times make arbitrage impractical

This can be mitigated. Exchanging to a less congested coin can be done quickly for fast, low-cost transfers. Keeping a buffer at each exchange will lower overall rate of return but also reduce the frequency of transfers required.

>What can we hack together that can be used to filter seizures?

I think a video filter could do this. See this video on Eulerian Video Amplification from SIGGRAPH 2012: https://youtu.be/ONZcjs1Pjmk

A similar technique to reduce the amplitude of strobing seems plausible.

It's due to large order volume at those prices. If an unusually large limit order or group of limit orders is placed at $11,800, then incoming market orders can chip away at the remaining volume available at that price but not move the externally visible price.

Only a tiny fraction of the power goes into performing transactions; the total power consumed is independent from transaction rate. Bitcoin in 2009 used vastly less power than today yet had the same transaction capacity. The power consumption scales with the price of Bitcoin[1], which is determined by demand and most of the demand right now is driven by future price speculation.

Interestingly, the new cash-settled CME Bitcoin futures contracts, due to start trading in December, will allow speculation on the future price to take place without requiring possession of actual Bitcoin. These futures may both increase Bitcoin adoption and reduce the upward pressure of speculation on the price.

[1] More accurately, the value of power consumed for mining Bitcoin approaches the value of the block reward plus transaction fees.

This is all a bit naive, OP is not up to speed with the state of the art. This looks like any number of student projects that are created every semester.

The best thing about this is that it looks like OP prototyped and released v1 for sale in under a month. That's respectable.