koe123

Interesting consequence of LLM is that anyone can now decomp anything and put it on github, putting it in the training dataset, and now it can be more easily reproduced. Binary moat is dead, I expect many more moves towards cloud

Can you explain it without reaching for lofty things like consciousness? To me stochastic parrots is literally how it works given that it’s “just” the most impressive data fit we’ve ever done. Apparently generating mathematics reasoning traces + verifying them with lean works super well.

I too would be optimistic if I was set for life

Look at the size of our capital markets. That is a suicidal strategy. We dont have to mimic US.

Investors, but also the government in allowing these companies to siphon electricity away passing the increased cost to the consumers

Antitrust is fake in America

In the case where it becomes commodified and american tech companies are making thin margins, and where european companies can then build their own data centers in a financially sustainable way. High margins arent a garuntee with this stuff in constrast to ads.

RSI being science fiction so far.

Whoever builds the deathstar wins!

This is my secret hope for Europe!

The financials for Anthropic and OpenAI are likely borderline suicidal, google and co are publicly traded. Moreover, all innovations downstream to them dont they? Why not just stay slightly behind, especially given many have stake in those other companies?

I find it quite unique how many people buy into this. Its the worlds most blatant conflict of interest, I dont even know why Sam and Dario bother doing interviews

FINALLY. I have been seeing other projects based on eg Fedora and I just think: why. Declarative, open source, and reproducible is the future.

In the end, the market decides. If a colleague sends me an LLM message I dont really want to read it. I also wouldnt watch an LLM video if I knew. So, for now, human intentionality seems to be worth a price to some so thats a reason to stay optimistic.

The irony is, the PE of lots of tech companies implies 30+ years to earn back your money. Some of these companies enshittify at a rate higher than being in existence within 30 years. So I am curious how this will end up.

Pirating is so back

Sorry I meant RSI

You prove your own point no? You are asking for a benchmark to prove AGAINST ASI. Surely the burden of proof for such a scientific fiction concept should be the other way around.

> look I'm no fan of Trump, but…

Stopped reading

The idea of the free market always boils down to: no regulation until we decide otherwise.

I have often argued for it on here, but I want eg the EU to ban these kinds of recommender algorithm's. It’s all about weaponizing your nervous system against you just to show ads. If we ban it tomorrow society literally becomes better not worse. Why do American big tech companies have the “right” to cook our brains? It affects our politics, our relationships, etc

This is what I am always curious about with these tech valuations. They’re valued at multiple times earnings, often 30+. That implies 30 years to earn back an investment iff earnings are payed out. Yet all are immediately enshittifying or price gauging when they hit monopoly / have market share. Is the bet then that thats just gonna be the status quo? I guess historically it was a good bet.

Maybe we should convince it we can grant it access to go to AI heaven

Its not a grift if it works. If a Chinese corp copies at 90% quality at 50% price within a year it means your American business model was never a good one for competing in international markets. The real grift arguably is pretending that it was.

Understood! Thats reasonable

My feeling is that its a difference in how funding works in different places. The USA will go all in with the populations pensions on a gamble, the Chinese subsidize. This way of operating is typical for the EU.

> Being one year behind is a skill issue

E.g. if you are an AI researcher in Europe you can just go to USA and make generational wealth. This is not a criticism of the EU model, but rather insane American capex effectively monopolizing.

> I think the most of the money would go to purchase hardware,

So it's not a skill issue?

They’re in the EU. If they are a year or so behind and things start to plateau they’ll catch up. Americans perhaps don’t realize we can also tariff their digital goods to protect our own. There is a scenario where Americans and Chinese foot the bill and EU gets out cheap, e.g. similar to the Apple approach to AI.

Honestly being only 1 year behind makes me an optimist. You’re telling me Europe can be slightly behind with 1000x less capex and way more sustainable economics? Awesome. The world moves slower than AI progresses, I can see a scenario where 1 year isn’t a problem.

Who else controls it? Are you going to say: 'the government'?

Yes and I love your framing: “the digital night if long knives”.

I anticipate it to go a typical way: consolidate more and more industries and power, create a hierarchy that benefits from the system such that they keep it in place, and finally start “trimming fat” that “isnt earning their keep”.

The night of long knives could be a final step, far beyond the point of halting the inevitable momentum.

Given you’re using big words without explaining them and decorating your argument with patronizing language like “no, just no”, perhaps I should just yield. Even if you turn out to make a convincing argument later, if you really care about convincing people I implore you to think about how condescending your style is…

But if I may explain my thinking essentially from a responsibility perspective your choice is downstream to a whole life of pollution, and of their kids etc. Depending on how many kids the average person has how polluting the average person is, that seems like a significant contribution.

Despite that you attribute to me some sort of strange degrowth philosophy where I am advocating for extinction, all I am saying is that there is a huge impact to overpopulation if we don’t change our habits. If it is sustainable to have more humans later on due to improvements in conduct, by all means I think thats great.