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kilbuz

438 karma · joined March 26, 2015

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kilbuz··on Pandoc – A universal document converter
I'm not the OP, but for me it's converting statistical analyses done in Rmarkdown to PDF or HTML.
kilbuz··on The Abundance of Silicon Valley
Where would you go though? Always interested in hearing people's answer to that.
kilbuz··on San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.
Where are you thinking of moving? I live here for more than the job, so just wondering what other cities are on the radar.
kilbuz··on Microsoft's CEO is tired of working from home and he's not alone
Immunity is often a spectrum. Nothing is black and white in biology.
kilbuz··on Matt Levine makes sense of Wall Street like none other
True, but no one is.
kilbuz··on Presidential Plinko
What does wrong even mean in these contexts? You can't reliably evaluate a probability model with n = 1 test cases.
kilbuz··on Netflix CEO explains why he pays technologists huge salaries
It's not the US, it's the Bay Area... prices for many things, including wages, are very different here than elsewhere in the country.
kilbuz··on Netflix CEO explains why he pays technologists huge salaries
When Cramer coined the FAANG acronym, Netflix was included. That group of companies was grouped together by investors due to their performance and marked dominance at the time, which has by and large continued.

In addition to their stock price, these companies also pay very well. In fact, if you are lucky to get an offer from Netflix, their aim is to pay you and keep you at "top of personal market". That is, they do not believe anyone will pay you more in total comp. Netflix does mostly, if not all, base salary as opposed to equity grants.

From all my friend in FAANG, this has seemed to be true, Netflix employees make more than anyone else I know in tech.

kilbuz··on PG and Jessica
FAANG engineers definitely do, especially with a few years of tenure. My SQL-slinging data analyst friends at Netflix start at 350-400 base, and the sky is the limit. Now, if you don't work at FAANG, you're probably averaging in the 200-300 range total comp. A couple can easily clear 500k a year for 5 years, and still not feel comfortable buying a house the size of which I grew up in the Midwest (i.e., small).

In short, incomes are high, and so are costs. That being said, I've definitely come out way ahead by living here by staying somewhat sane with expenses.

kilbuz··on I no longer build software
Thank you for sharing this, these are fair comments. My experience has been more positive, but I see the truth in many of your points. For what it's worth, I have always been involved in controlled experimentation, and never anything related to ML or modeling. Our biggest issue is usually ensuring we are getting accurate counts of events, and when I see all the challenges in that, I wonder how anything more advanced ever gets done.
kilbuz··on I no longer build software
Perhaps something software-adjacent, such as a statistician.
kilbuz··on The majority of 18- to 29-year-olds in the US are now living with their parents
Twin Cities is the answer, as you already know.
kilbuz··on Painting a better life through side SaaS hustles
A very amusing (to me) take on this is the Emacs Antinews section of the manual.
kilbuz··on Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall
I don't know if this is true for many people who live here. There is a subgroup of my friends who live in the city and will drive almost every weekend for 30-60 minutes with their bikes and kayaks for recreation. If you avoid the popular trails and rec areas (e.g., Muir Woods), you can get somewhere very peaceful fairly quickly. I think the balance between city and access to nature works for a lot of people who live in the Bay Area.
kilbuz··on Mozilla Lifeboat
Salary, bonus, healthcare, dental, 401K, office space, taxes, equipment, ... employees are not cheap. That figure would be competitive in the Bay Area for quality dev work.
kilbuz··on Tech Sector Feeling Covid-19’s Economic Pain
deposit information == withdrawal information, and consent to withdraw is often contained in the fine print of direct deposit agreements
kilbuz··on In north Michigan woods, feds raid an alleged upscale art forgery factory
It's true in most luxury goods. In this case, instead of Louis Vuitton, George Ault was the brand being replicated. High-end mechanical watches are another example, where the "right" name on the dial definitely affects the demand, even if lower-priced watches have nicer internals and finishing for far less cost. In fact, there is a whole group of consumers who knowingly purchase replicated pieces (some of which are getting indistinguishable from the real thing). A lot is in a name, in art and otherwise.
kilbuz··on Why is AI so useless for business?
If your herb was shown to improve abdominal pain in a certain population through use of well-executed, replicated randomized control trials, I think it would count as medicine, yes.
kilbuz··on AWS EC2 General Price Cut
For me, not having to worry about the "where" and "how" related to physical placement and connection of that Ryzen box is worth the premium and then some.
kilbuz··on History of Logo
When I was in elementary school in the 80s, someone in our district retrofit a school bus with two rows of computers running along the sides. The bus would travel to each school in the district once a month or so. We would all walk out to the parking lot, board the bus, and use Logo. It was probably the first exposure to a computer most of the kids in my class had, and I have never forgotten it.
kilbuz··on Study: Severe Covid-19 Cases Don't Respond to Hydroxychloroquine+Azithromycin
You're thinking about things correctly. The statistical and scientific methodology of clinical trials are by and large the same thing as A/B tests. I don't think anyone is drawing much from this sample of n = 11 except to say it's definitely not a miracle cure. No approval would normally be given to a new treatment for any study of this size.

If an A/B test took a form from almost 0% conversion to almost 100% conversion, you might only need 11 users to show that. But even in that case, the devil is in the details. Were your users really a completely random sample from your population, etc?

The other side of the coin is, can we say these are non-interesting treatments with only 11 subjects? Or are the studies too underpowered to say much of all?

kilbuz··on Study: Severe Covid-19 Cases Don't Respond to Hydroxychloroquine+Azithromycin
While your point is a good one, meaningful clinical research is hard enough under normal conditions. Forms, enrollment, protocols, data collection, statistical analysis plans, reporting, etc. It's an entire industry used to operating in scales that often span years for a single meaningful study.
kilbuz··on Study: Severe Covid-19 Cases Don't Respond to Hydroxychloroquine+Azithromycin
Imagine a treatment that would being people back to life. Surely if you saw that 11 times you would believe it worked. In fact, after n = 1, you would be so amazed you'd be thinking there is a trick. The point is that, while N is important, the N needed to uncover a signal differs wildly with the outcome you're trying to affect, specifically the outcome's variance. If one of these drug cocktails 'works' (which has many different definitions in clinical research), the signal may be obvious enough that n = 11 is enough to hone in on a promising treatment for further study. It's complicated.
kilbuz··on Spreadsheet of San Francisco Bay Area Covid-19 Data and Charts
Rename it Oakland.
kilbuz··on Shopify CEO says long hours aren't necessary for success
It depends what hours you are trying to count. In the office? Remote? Actually 'working'? Including shuttle time? In my FAANG circle, small N, none of those values would be above 40 hours a week, except possibly if you include shuttle time. Certainly not anything approaching an average of 60-65 hours a week. That's averaging a 12-13 hour day, in a 10am-4pm core hour culture.
kilbuz··on House Prices Drop Again in San Francisco and Silicon Valley
Many of us do!
kilbuz··on Mailchimp to Sendy: Cutting Email Costs
Cutting costs by 100x? What's the math on that?
kilbuz··on The cutting-edge of cutting: How Japanese scissors have evolved (2018)
In this hypothetical trip to Japan, with airfare, lodging, food, drink, local transportation, and luxury knife purchases (including duty), a 25 USD checked bag fee is 'hefty' and a 'big problem'?
kilbuz··on Audit suggests Google favors a small number of major news outlets
Pareto suggested this before Audit did.
kilbuz··on Changing San Francisco Is Foreseen as a Haven for Wealthy and Childless (1981)
SF over South Bay weather any day, especially summer.
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