karpodiem

I live in Detroit and buy a vehicle that's produced at Jefferson and Connor, five miles from where I live. I feel good about that.

The 3.6L V6 / and ZF eight speed transmission are battle tested - we're five years into the current Grand Cherokee iteration, they've mostly worked out the issues. The volume of TSBs (technical service bulletins - http://wk2jeeps.com/wk2_tsb.htm) are way lower vs. the launch model year.

I haven't had any quality issues, although it's early. I would never buy the first (and maybe even second) model year for any OEM, but especially FCA - that part I would agree with. Wait until year three.

Now is a good time to buy put options.

I read HN, drive a Jeep Grand Cherokee, and short Tesla.

Looking good naked cures all ills. I know that won't play well among the Rain Man comment section here, but the material you are woven out proves this to be true.

Among nearly all western countries there has been a decrease in testosterone levels, higher BMIs, and lower birthrates.

Go read Chateau Heartiste.

"A thought experiment: how would an economy run solely on a Bitcoin-like currency behave? And how would it respond to business cycles?"

The same way money has existed for thousands of years but without the kick the can down the road of debt crushing future generations that has been a post WW2 global economic phenomenon?

When the currency collapses or a new currency is put forth, then you will know the power of Bitcoin.

"But MUH bitcoin hodlers who don't have electricity in Venezuela, what good did Bitcoin do them?"

Ask the ones who were 1) smart enough to hold Bitcoin 2) Left Venezuela if they preferred to leave with A) Cash B) Gold or C) Bitcoin when they left.

"I have unique knowledge/experience about how a variety of industrial equipment and computer systems communicate, and how the software to allow them to communicate should be designed."

Your knowledge is the foundation, but the real value is at the ease of use layer. That's what your customers are paying for - your software solves problems for them. If it's easy to use, they will solve their problems faster.

I work at a mid-cap ERP company in the Midwest, I'd be interested in hearing more about your software.

So would (self) pursuit of being physically attractive (high muscle mass / low body fat) and intelligence (eventually leading to earning power to support yourself and a family) equate to "eschewal of the appearance of weakness"?

I'd like to hear the APA's answer to this.

They flat out won't use the vehicles in the Midwest and New England when there is snow. The Waymo vehicles they said would appear in Detroit over the winter (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-26/alphabet-...) haven't materialized.

The 55,000 people that live there seem to be ok with it.

"By displacing to a large extent judeo Christian values, for all their faults, perhaps in education and elsewhere, it looks like something far more broken, dangerous and sinister has filled the void left by it."

Bingo.

A good quote - "A society which is based on the letter of the law and never reaches any higher is taking very scarce advantage of the high level of human possibilities. The letter of the law is too cold and formal to have a beneficial influence on society. Whenever the tissue of life is woven of legalistic relations, there is an atmosphere of moral mediocrity, paralyzing man's noblest impulses. And it will be simply impossible to stand through the trials of this threatening century with only the support of a legalistic structure."

Panasonic makes Tesla's batteries. If someone paid Panasonic a little bit more money, what's to prevent them from using the same batteries?

I would love to see the engineering details around the 'moat' that Tesla has with batteries.

Ah yes, the old issue of demographics.

Wow. Great story, thank you for sharing this.

The recent NPC meme provides an interesting answer to this question.

I love living in flyover country.

Fact - There is no Model 3 available for purchase at $35,000 before incentives. Source - https://3.tesla.com/model3/design?#battery

Fact - The federal incentive is reduced to $3750 starting January 1st, 2019. Source - https://3.tesla.com/model3/design?#battery ('Learn More' link)

Fact - Tesla has dropped all mention of the $35,000 vehicle Source -https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/07/tesla-drops-35000-price...

Fact - Elon Musk is a pathologic liar.

Fact - Tesla will go bankrupt.

Haha, seems like the truth hit a nerve and got you all salty. I'll continue drop some knowledge bombs -

Chinese stock market is down 20% on the year - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-17/china-s-s...

Chinese GDP is lower than whatever is being reported. Chinese GDP has supposedly been between 6-7% for the last six years, but Chinese consumer debt has increased eight fold (https://www.ft.com/content/5d01b4d8-c1f9-11e8-95b1-d36dfef1b...) during the same period. So that obviously means the Chinese consumer has less pocket in their cash. All the numbers I cited are valid and my point still stands. The US is the only country whose financial markets are positive or flat for 2018 - everyone else is down. China GDP is up in 2018, but slightly. Outside of Germany, all of European GDP is down in 2018 - a lot. Look at Italy and France, negative GDP.

There will be millions fewer vehicles sold in the years to come, globally, and consumers will be more price conscientious in that period than they are today. EVs are toys for the rich, for at least the next 10-20 years.

There will be ZERO $35,000 M3s sold before the US federal subsidy is halved to $3750 starting 2019.01.01. That, at minimum, will make it a $38,750 car. Without any options. Oops.

Musk himself is dead silent on WHEN the $35,000 M3 will sold, but is shilling some $40k+ something variant - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/18/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-tweets-a...

There has been talk of extending the federal subsidy it but it's all just talk. Talk means nothing. Tick tock, 2019.01.01 isn't that far away. Less than 60 days.

I don't work for the oil industry, I work in software, but thanks for playing. I can do this all day.

Funny how these articles are written by individuals who have never worked in the industry - the author is totally clueless.

Okay, let's start with money. Zoom out to a population view and do $1000 USD increments from $1000 to 100,000. The median/average ASP for a new vehicle in the U.S. is $36,270 - https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2018-02-01-Average-New-Car-Prices-....

That is not going to increase very much year over year, because wages are largely stagnant and the economy is peaking. The U.S. is way over overdue for a recession, European GDP is anemic (0.3% growth in Q3 2018 - https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9102849/2-07...) and China GDP is 6.5% (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/19/china-q3-gdp-china-posts-eco...), but China always lies, so it's probably around 2% or 3%. That's not even taking into account that Chinese consumer debt for mortgage holdings has increased eight-fold since 2008 (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-10/nightmare-scenario...). The Chinese consumer is tapped out, which is why for the first time in 31 years, Chinese vehicle sales have actually decreased year over year - https://www.autoblog.com/2018/11/09/china-car-sales-fall/

So your vehicle ASP isn't going to increase in the next 10 years - it's probably going to decrease. Total unit volumes in the US will probably go from 17 million units to 11 or 12 million units by 2025.

You're trying to tell me the industrial CapEx required for the OEM/supply chain to switch over EV powertrain in a period of falling vehicle sales and deflationary prices for the second largest purchase a consumer can make, after a home, for the two largest automotive markets (the U.S. and China)? Bullshit.

Detroiter here - I'm off of Adams Ave. downtown, next to Grand Circus Park/Comerica.

Ford needs -

1) Better styling. I just bought a Grand Cherokee, and despite the 2020 Ford Explorer being RWD, I would never consider a Ford vehicle. Their exterior/interior styling is bland.

2) An off-road sub brand to compete against Jeep. The upcoming Bronco/baby Bronco/Ranger is a start, but Jeep is making a killing with the brand image despite 95% of people only taking their Wranglers over curbs in a mall parking lot. The 'dream' sells. They need to compete with Jeep in off-road prowess to sell the dream.

3) High performance trim levels for 2020+ vehicles high margin vehicles (Nautilus, Explorer, Aviator, F150, Mustang, Navigator) with hybrid/electric options that have a sub 10.5 second quarter mile.

Can't replace the SSD? Pass.

"The bulk of Google’s $110.8 billion revenue in 2017 came from its proprietary advertising service, Google AdWords."

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/020515/busin...

How many FTEs do they have running G+? There are a bunch of OSS people that use it because Facebook sucks and Twitter is toxic.

The good will from the OSS community in maintaining G+ can be easily paid for in the 250% growth you referenced. And please, save me from the 'we need to double down and focus on products that matter' - no, you need to maintain some credibility for your product ownership.

That's why I don't spend a single dollar with GCE.

What a poorly managed company.

Absolutely false. No one is going to financially assume Tesla's $10 billion debt with operations that yield huge negative free cash flow.

It's going to Chapter 7 - Liquidation.

A key supplier may have gone cash on delivery (no more net 120 terms) because M3 production this week has been at a stand still - https://twitter.com/skabooshka/status/1032409945407250434

And - https://twitter.com/Paul91701736/status/1033136573615730688

All the first hand Twitter intelligence is gathered by people who are short on TSLA. They see the ground level reality.

Martin Shkreli is serving seven years in prison for less.

"they will have three high demand platforms they are producing in volume."

This is false. S & X sales are flat/slightly decreasing - http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/tesla-model-...

Tesla is in awful financial shape - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4195452-bulls-may-noticed-t...

Tesla is on the verge of bankruptcy.

This does this opposite. This is the opposite of 'funding secured', because now he has to PROVE that funding actually was secured. It wasn't.

$TSLAQ it is.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17836641

People are waiting 3 or 4 months for replacement parts for their vehicles or Tesla has had possession of the vehicle (and the person is using a loner) for a similar amount of time. That won't fly in the mass market.