Comment by karpodiem | Hacker News Reader

Comment by karpodiem | Hacker News Reader

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Funny how these articles are written by individuals who have never worked in the industry - the author is totally clueless.

Okay, let's start with money. Zoom out to a population view and do $1000 USD increments from $1000 to 100,000. The median/average ASP for a new vehicle in the U.S. is $36,270 - https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2018-02-01-Average-New-Car-Prices-....

That is not going to increase very much year over year, because wages are largely stagnant and the economy is peaking. The U.S. is way over overdue for a recession, European GDP is anemic (0.3% growth in Q3 2018 - https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9102849/2-07...) and China GDP is 6.5% (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/19/china-q3-gdp-china-posts-eco...), but China always lies, so it's probably around 2% or 3%. That's not even taking into account that Chinese consumer debt for mortgage holdings has increased eight-fold since 2008 (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-10/nightmare-scenario...). The Chinese consumer is tapped out, which is why for the first time in 31 years, Chinese vehicle sales have actually decreased year over year - https://www.autoblog.com/2018/11/09/china-car-sales-fall/

So your vehicle ASP isn't going to increase in the next 10 years - it's probably going to decrease. Total unit volumes in the US will probably go from 17 million units to 11 or 12 million units by 2025.

You're trying to tell me the industrial CapEx required for the OEM/supply chain to switch over EV powertrain in a period of falling vehicle sales and deflationary prices for the second largest purchase a consumer can make, after a home, for the two largest automotive markets (the U.S. and China)? Bullshit.

Funny how you compare Europe gdp growth for the last quarter to China growth for the whole year, just to cheat the readers trying to push your narrative. Funny how, for your admission, you have stakes in the oil industry and you are criticising EV with nothing apart from opinions, exactly the same thing that you accuse other writers to do. Even funnier is that you are actually writing that the ASP for a new vehicle, not for a new EV is 36k$ when in about 6/9 months the model 3 will sell for 35k$. The funniest thing obviously is the last word of your comment. Bullshit. It’s the funniest because it really applies to you, working in the oil industry, and just none the wiser like all your colleagues that were ridiculing ev trying all they can to avoid the inevitable. We have today an electric car that can lap faster than a Ferrari 458 [0] without any changes, apart from the wheels, for a fraction of the price. In 12 years, at worst, India and Germany will ban the sale of all the ice cars, as I highlighted in my previous comment. Enjoy your last years in an industry that was lucrative only at the expenses of the whole world.

[0] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.carsguide.com.au/car-news...

Haha, seems like the truth hit a nerve and got you all salty. I'll continue drop some knowledge bombs -

Chinese stock market is down 20% on the year - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-17/china-s-s...

Chinese GDP is lower than whatever is being reported. Chinese GDP has supposedly been between 6-7% for the last six years, but Chinese consumer debt has increased eight fold (https://www.ft.com/content/5d01b4d8-c1f9-11e8-95b1-d36dfef1b...) during the same period. So that obviously means the Chinese consumer has less pocket in their cash. All the numbers I cited are valid and my point still stands. The US is the only country whose financial markets are positive or flat for 2018 - everyone else is down. China GDP is up in 2018, but slightly. Outside of Germany, all of European GDP is down in 2018 - a lot. Look at Italy and France, negative GDP.

There will be millions fewer vehicles sold in the years to come, globally, and consumers will be more price conscientious in that period than they are today. EVs are toys for the rich, for at least the next 10-20 years.

There will be ZERO $35,000 M3s sold before the US federal subsidy is halved to $3750 starting 2019.01.01. That, at minimum, will make it a $38,750 car. Without any options. Oops.

Musk himself is dead silent on WHEN the $35,000 M3 will sold, but is shilling some $40k+ something variant - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/18/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-tweets-a...

There has been talk of extending the federal subsidy it but it's all just talk. Talk means nothing. Tick tock, 2019.01.01 isn't that far away. Less than 60 days.

I don't work for the oil industry, I work in software, but thanks for playing. I can do this all day.

I’ll stop answering your comments, you just write complete nonsense and it’s not worth it. Just to show everyone how much you are wrong I’d like to point out that you are probably the only person on this website ignoring that the model 3 is 35k$ before all incentives. With the incentives, as of today, we are speaking of 27.5k$, so it’s more than 11k$ less of what you thought would happen with the incentives halved. Indeed I would say that “Oops” is the right word. Please stop spreading misinformation based on your fantasies because in that case I might still answer to your comments if they are as mendacious as the previous two.

Fact - There is no Model 3 available for purchase at $35,000 before incentives. Source - https://3.tesla.com/model3/design?#battery

Fact - The federal incentive is reduced to $3750 starting January 1st, 2019. Source - https://3.tesla.com/model3/design?#battery ('Learn More' link)

Fact - Tesla has dropped all mention of the $35,000 vehicle Source -https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/07/tesla-drops-35000-price...

Fact - Elon Musk is a pathologic liar.

Fact - Tesla will go bankrupt.

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