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gridlockd

469 karma · joined March 12, 2019

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gridlockd··on Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]
> If 10x more people get it, it doesn't need to be more deadly in terms of IFR to be a concern.

Sure, but what sort of concern? A "shut down everything, COVID-cases are rising!" sort of concern?

gridlockd··on Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]
It's about as valid an argument as appealing to the pictures of "overwhelmed hospitals". Yes, we've all seen those pictures. We've also seen pictures of empty emergency care units that were created in anticipation of a wave of illnesses that didn't materialize.

In general, we can say that in the overwhelming majority of cases, hospitals did not get overwhelmed with COVID patients like some of the models predicted. That may change as we move into the second winter season, but it's not a foregone conclusion.

gridlockd··on Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]
"Then, despite all precautions against the virus, a family member got sick. Then another and another and another. Now, seven months after the shutdown, seven people in Ricardo Aguirre's extended family and his father, Jesús, 67, have died of Covid-19 complications."

Two observations: First, this happened despite all precautions. Secondly, extended families can be hundreds of people, including many elderly. Lastly, in a large-enough population you will inevitably find clusters that are more affected by some illness than the average person. That's why you need to observe solid data, not a media spectacle, to come to rational conclusions.

gridlockd··on Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]
In medicine, people like to talk about quality-of-life-adjusted years. Why? Because there's no point in making somebody live more years that are subjectively bad (e.g due to treatment side-effects), rather than less years that are subjectively good. When it comes to policy-making that affects us all, it's time to extend that to the collective level.

We need to ask ourselves, how much suffering can younger generations be expected to endure to make the older generations live statistically a bit longer? Remember, the average COVID death is in their eighties, which is already beyond life expectancy.

gridlockd··on Animation of how bridges were built in Central Europe in the Middle Ages [video]
A more reasonable interpretation of that data would be that we're getting stupider because we spend more time indoors without proper ventilation.

Even if we doubled yearly increases in ppm we'd be a century away from a measurable impact on human cognition for outdoor air.

gridlockd··on Covid: Remdesivir 'has little or no effect' on survival, says WHO
Not enough evidence for what? Quote:

"The evidence is admittedly incomplete for all the steps in COVID-19 microdroplet transmission, but it is similarly incomplete for the large droplet and fomite modes of transmission. The airborne transmission mechanism operates in parallel with the large droplet and fomite routes [16] that are now the basis of guidance."

By using arbitrarily high standards for evidence, I might as well claim there's no evidence that COVID is transmitted by large droplets or by smear infection. Where's the randomized trial that proves beyond any doubt that coughing in each other's faces will spread COVID?

gridlockd··on Covid: Remdesivir 'has little or no effect' on survival, says WHO
> Please explain on what basis you are assigning a paper "expert consensus" ?

The source is for the "if not majority" part of that sentence. The other part is just me making an admittedly unsubstantiated claim.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/239-experts-with-o...

> I know somehow on HN linking to a paper is seen as a mic-drop, but that is not the case in the real world.

Sure, but this is HN. You often have to source stuff just to not get downvoted.

gridlockd··on Covid: Remdesivir 'has little or no effect' on survival, says WHO
> Please understand that airborne has a scientific meaning, and that is the terminology that scientists use. There is no actual clinical evidence of the airborne transmission of COVID.It is spread through large droplets.

At this point, it's expert consensus that airborne transmission of COVID is a significant if not the major route of transmission[1].

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/26/14857

> If it was airborne, those cloth and surgical masks that people wear would be useless, so you might as well not wear them.

Not quite useless, but nowhere near as effective as people would like to believe them to be.

gridlockd··on Hacked billboards make Teslas see phantom objects causing them to swerve or stop
Yes, any idiot can call 911 and have SWAT team dispatched, but that is a very low effort "attack".

I'm not saying that this could never possibly happen, but it's not much of a real threat exactly because effort vs reward is unfavorable.

gridlockd··on Hacked billboards make Teslas see phantom objects causing them to swerve or stop
Your run-of-the-mill criminal has some sort of profit motive and this seems like a very roundabout way to attempt extortion.

A terrorist on the other hand would probably be dissatisfied with the not-quite-catastophic outcome. If you want to cause real havoc, there are far more valuable targets to hack into.

gridlockd··on Dropbox Converts to Permanent WFH
Those thing aren't gone, they've already been paid for and are being written off.

Of course, with new contracts being negotiated, not having to pay for all these expenses will give an employer more leeway in terms of salary. However, remote work also increases the candidate pool, so the net effect is going to be lower salaries.

gridlockd··on Dropbox Converts to Permanent WFH
This is the least of all expenses. Tech workers in SF can charge more because they expenses are universally higher. Remote workers in cheaper places can (and will) charge less.
gridlockd··on Dropbox Converts to Permanent WFH
You may not realize that the $500 chair, the ping pong table and the beer fridge effectively comes out of everyone's paycheck.
gridlockd··on YouTube bans coronavirus vaccine misinformation
> ... have we? Much of the 20th century was spent at war, with a death total somewhere in the region of a hundred million. As were most of the previous centuries.

In fact, casualties of war, as a percentage of population, have been more or less constant for hundreds of years.

https://www.vox.com/2015/6/23/8832311/war-casualties-600-yea...

Perhaps the rules have changed now, due to mutually assured destruction.

gridlockd··on YouTube bans coronavirus vaccine misinformation
> The key innovation we require, as a society, are better feedback mechanisms to correct inaccurate beliefs.

I have come to the conclusion that managing our collective delusions is more important than correcting them. Reality is unbearable to the human psyche. Most collective delusions are benign or even beneficial to society.

gridlockd··on YouTube bans coronavirus vaccine misinformation
"YouTube says it already removes content that disputes the existence or transmission of COVID-19, promotes medically unsubstantiated methods of treatment, discourages people from seeking medical care or explicitly disputes health authorities’ guidance on self-isolation or social distancing."

Fortunately, there has been worldwide expert consensus on all of these things since day 1 of the pandemic, so YouTube does not find itself in the difficult position of acting as the arbiter of truth.

gridlockd··on Unofficial ballot drop boxes worry California elections officials
Don't worry guys, there's no evidence of widespread voter fraud.
gridlockd··on Is your programming language unreasonable? (2015)
Fair enough, I understand what you mean now. By namedropping Paxos and Raft you were leading me onto something quite different.
gridlockd··on Characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and Covid-19
You're right about Raoult not mentioning zinc, but Zelenko used zinc from the beginning.

Also, significant reduction in mortality using HCQ alone early during the treatment has been reproduced:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.09.20184143v...

The earlier trials weren't testing prophylactic treatment.

gridlockd··on AI Is an Ideology, Not a Technology
> Jaron Lanier is a frustrating thinker.

I agree. Like Slavoj but without the Zizek.

> He gave a rambling answer about we need to pay all the human involved in producing that model (even those that are consumed as opensource models) and that AI is fundamentally anti-human.

I do think this raises a very valid point in terms of intellectual property. If I train an AI to paint in the style of an artist whose art I scraped, does that artist have any claim as to its licensing? If not, should they not?

gridlockd··on Characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and Covid-19
A paper published in Nature is being criticized as "too neutral" for pointing out that the evidence is inconclusive.

My comment is getting heavily downvoted, despite being properly sourced. No counter-argument or evidence is presented.

Why? Does nobody care to explain themselves?

gridlockd··on 14,000x Speedup (2015)
The next level is "Google for the win", in which you realize that this particular part of your problem (nearest neighbor search) is so ubiquitous that there is library for it in pretty much any language.
gridlockd··on 14,000x Speedup (2015)
> ...not really representative for the scientific computing community.

I disagree.

Source: dude, trust me.

gridlockd··on Characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and Covid-19
It's indeed curious, also Trump at one point claimed to be taking HCQ prophylactically, I wonder how far that went.

Having said that, giving somebody "experimental treatment" and "knowing what one is doing" is contradictory. According to Trump, he asked for the experimental antibody therapy himself. As his doctor, you then have the choice of playing the odds or putting "got fired by Trump" on your resume.

gridlockd··on Characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and Covid-19
"As far as I’m concerned, administering it to infected patients now constitutes medical malpractice. I have no interest in goalpost-moving efforts to say that they didn’t administer zinc or azithromycin, or they picked the wrong patients or the wrong loading dose or whatever. No."

The original treatment protocol included zinc, so it's nonsense to say that adding in zinc is "moving the goalpost". Not testing in combination with zinc is moving the goalpost. The interaction between zinc and HCQ is key. Azithromycin is just to prevent potential secondary bacterial infection, which isn't necessarily a big factor in COVID mortality.

"This is special pleading, and it is not backed up by any hard data."

Here's a study that showed adding zinc to HCQ reduced mortality by 50%:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32930657/

Unfortunately, that study didn't test zinc without HCQ, but the hypothesis is that HCQ acts as an ionophore and is therefore beneficial.

gridlockd··on Characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and Covid-19
Any discussion of HCQ that ignores zinc, a key part of the original treatment protocol, is missing the mark.

Rationale:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030698772...

Trial:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32930657/

gridlockd··on The Xonsh Python Shell
"Marcel has been built and tested on Linux. It seems to mostly work on Mac, except for the ps operator. Haven't tried Windows at all."

That's unfortunate, because as awful as bash may be, a shell that works natively on all three systems would be far more valuable. Python has all that platform abstraction already built-in.

gridlockd··on The Xonsh Python Shell
Okay, but I read it as "zonsh", or maybe "Exxon Shell".
gridlockd··on Removing Holocaust Denial Content
> In your terms, Facebook might be a mere conduit of speech, but there is nothing that says it has to a perfect/unfiltered conduit.

There is the provision that a common carrier must not discriminate[1]. In return, the common carrier is absolved of certain liabilities.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_carrier

I'm not saying Facebook is (or should be) considered a common carrier, I'm saying Facebook shouldn't get to have it both ways, as it currently does. The law hasn't quite caught up here yet.

gridlockd··on Removing Holocaust Denial Content
I don't think it's useful to conflate anything right of center with fascism. I was thinking of parties like NPD or Golden Dawn, which aren't just "right wing", but thinly-veiled Neo-Nazi parties, attracting hundreds of thousands of votes.
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