8,244 karma · joined January 12, 2012
The investment is massive, but not bigger than other projects by an order of magnitude. Major wars were bigger than AI. The dot com bubble was 2-3T dollars.
1) People think they can predict the future
2) People think humans can't adapt
The number of disruptive "game changing" technologies throughout history is immense. There's no question some people get negatively affected, but humanity as a whole has prospered because of these disruptions.
Literally every time, including during the industrial revolution, people thought it was game over for society, good manners, the youth, the planet etc.
Keep cool and try to adapt to the inevitable change. The next generation will certainly do it and leave you behind if you stay in a corner denying the new reality.
Q: is it possible that climate change could be a net positive for a significant number of people, even if a global net negative?
My concern is that some people could be encouraged to promote CO2 warming because of positive local effects.
Given your work described on this great article, how do you see a path where the LLM produces a game replication that a human could directly understand and manually improve - even if arguably unnecessary?
Take a game like Wasteland, which has a terrible modern port. I'd be interested in creating a modern port as a hobby while manually making improvements myself. But that would require code that is reasonably modular which a human can understand. Is this possible using your method and current models?
Saying that LLMs have "reduced the cost of coding" would be boring. And using your analogy, pencils, typewriters and computers have all reduced the cost of writing, but writers are still around.
I don't think it needs an elaborate refusal. I'll just say that in the universe of concerning future problems, it's just one of many, much, much more likely outcomes.
I'm nearly infinitely more worried about an impact event, which is a guarantee some time in the future, or global warming, an uncomfortably high likely outcome, than Roku's Basilisk or anything resembling it.
"Copilot" is a term like any other and when I first heard the name, I thought it was an alright, if uninspired, choice.
Now I can't hear the word "Copilot" used in any context without having negative feelings due to Microsoft's saturation campaign.
Speaking of this, I also wonder about present and future people named "Claude", a mainstream name in some parts of the world.
But filling in the blanks can still involve a lot of grindy, time consuming work where you iterate through collections, build parameters for other APIs, check invariants etc. All of that stuff is boring to me.
What I'm trying to say is that most coding tasks require "senior level thinking" and "intern level thinking". The latter can sometimes be the majority of the work and I don't want to do that anymore.
But it's clear that many people feel otherwise. Software engineering has many classes of tasks and the difference in opinions about AI seem to exist because different people like different aspects of it.
When AI can write screenplays like this one, then it's game over.
The thinking was: "Google is a dream job, nobody would be stupid enough to leave it". Yep, once a dream job.
We're getting these posts now for OpenAI and Anthropic, now including Google, but the reasoning is a lot more sinister.
While before it was "Yep, colleagues and free food were great but I wasn't entirely happy for minor reasons X, Y and Z", now it's "I had to leave because I could have destroyed humanity!"
2. Guess the next number
3. You'll be reliably wrong
Do you have "superhuman predictive ability" in this case?
Ed Zitron has a similar success rate, perhaps lower
Microsoft Visualization Copilot
If there's anyone from Microsoft here, let your bosses know I'll accept a Chief Prompting Officer role to help get it (and much more) out of the door.