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gdavisson

347 karma · joined May 26, 2014

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gdavisson··on Archaeologist discovers 6k year-old island settlement off Croatian coast (2021)
The problem is that you have to go examine (dig/dive/whatever) the potential sites to get real feedback -- otherwise, you're just training the model based on your own prejudices about what good sites look like.
gdavisson··on Terra blockchain was officially halted at a block height of 7603700
That's the problem, though. What's a "more realistic valuation" for something that has no intrinsic value?
gdavisson··on FAA says 5G could impact radio altimeters on most Boeing 737s
You're using the wrong burden of proof here. You're assuming it's safe until proven dangerous, while the FAA is (properly) treating it as dangerous until proven safe.

Take the recent 737 MAX debacle as an example. Its MCAS hadn't been proven to be dangerous when it went into production, but it turned out that it was. Result: two airplanes fell out of the sky and 346 people died. It's the FAA's job to prevent this sort of thing from happening, and in this case (unlike the 737 case) they're doing that job.

gdavisson··on Scientists on alert over rising cases caused by Omicron cousin BA.2
These are from the PANGO lineage designation system (https://www.pango.network). They're based on the inferred phylogeny (i.e. family tree) of the various variants. Variant B.1.1.529 (not BA.1.1.529 -- that's a mistake in the article) is descended from B.1.1, which is descended from B.1, which is descended from B (which is the first haplotype that was detected). More specifically, B.1.1.529 is the 529th descendant of B.1.1 that the pango group have assigned a number to; it has no particular relation to B.1.1.528.

So what about "BA"? To keep these sequences from getting too long, they assign aliases, and BA is the alias of B.1.1.529 (they ran out of single-letter prefixes a while ago). So BA.1 is short for B.1.1.529.1, and BA.2 is short for B.1.1.529.2, etc. (And since these are all in the Omicron family tree, they're all classed as Omicron subvariants.) Similarly, the original Delta variant was B.1.617.2, which was assigned the alias AY, so AY.1 (=B.1.617.2.1), AY.2 (=B.1.617.2.2), etc are all Delta subvariants.

The current full lineage list is available at https://cov-lineages.org/lineage_list.html. Note that they're tracking variants in far more detail than any non-virus-nerd cares about. If I'm counting right, there are 1575 non-withdrawn lineages listed, including 210 in the Delta family.

gdavisson··on Show HN: Justyourip.com
Also http://v4.ident.me and http://v6.ident.me if you want to check a specific IP version. Unfortunately, leaving off the version prefix (/subdomain) doesn't work.
gdavisson··on The governor of Missouri still doesn’t know how websites work
Agreed; none of the analogies I've seen are really close. I have a couple of attempts:

Analogy 1: the reporter got a letter from DESE, and noticed that there was confidential information printed on the inside of the envelope.

Analogy 2: the reporter got a letter from DESE, and noticed there was a block of intra-office info (document ID, routing codes, etc) at the bottom, and that contained confidential information.

In either case, the critical thing is that the information was sent to him, just in a form/place people don't normally read.

gdavisson··on FAA Shows ‘Sample NOTAMs’ for Possible 5G Restrictions
AIUI the European usage of this band only goes up to 3.8GHz (see https://www.everythingrf.com/community/5g-frequency-bands-in... for example), but the FCC auctioned off band space up to 3.98GHz. Aircraft altimeters use the 4.2-4.4GHz band, so the new US allocation nearly halves the band gap. That is what the FAA is worried about.
gdavisson··on Ban ‘idiot’ anti-vaxxers from flying, says Ryanair boss
Why do you expect the partial protection from omicron to be greater than the damage caused by omicron? While it's looking significantly less dangerous than delta (though even that isn't completely certain), that doesn't mean it's anything like safe.

And even if omicron is drastically less severe than delta, its going to have a hard time being less dangerous or more effective vs delta than vaccination.

gdavisson··on Ban ‘idiot’ anti-vaxxers from flying, says Ryanair boss
That doesn't seem like a good idea. We won't have any solid data for a while, but it's likely that the immune escape works both ways. Just as immunity due to vaccination against/infection by other variants gives only limited protection against omicron, infection by omicron is likely to give only limited protection against delta etc. So if you get infected by omicron now, you'll still be at risk of getting hit by delta (or some derivative).
gdavisson··on Let’s Talk about PAKE (2018)
A server may store the password hashed, but in a password-over-TLS flow the password is received by the server in plaintext. It is only encrypted on the wire (& the network stack).

Look at all the places in a standard authentication flow where the plaintext password is exposed:

- Any TLS-stripping middleboxes on the client's network. (My personal security nightmare is that someone finds a vulnerability in one of those, and hacks them to scrape anything that looks like a password.) BTW, remember when Kazakhstan did this to their entire country?

- Any TLS-terminating load balancer/front-end-server/etc at the server side of the network.

- Potentially between the front-end server and a backend that does the actual authentication, depending on how traffic is passed there.

- Finally, the server that's doing the authentication -- the password will at the very least be exposed in memory there, so anyone who can read its memory (or modify the server code to leak the passwords) can collect passwords in plaintext.

gdavisson··on IBM and airlines won’t comply with Texas governor’s ban on vaccine mandates
The risk of death if you get polio is much higher than COVID, but the probability of getting COVID is much much higher than it was of getting polio. This makes the overall current risk if dying from COVID roughly 100x the overall risk of dying from polio was in 1952. I realize that, psychologically, a low-probability-high-risk event can seem scarier than a high-probability-lower-risk event, but is it really unreasonable of me to expect people to also be able to make rational assessments of overall danger? Do you really think we're complete slaves to our psychological biases?
gdavisson··on IBM and airlines won’t comply with Texas governor’s ban on vaccine mandates
> It’s not like covid is polio.

You're right, it's not like polio. In 1952, the worst polio outbreak in US history caused 3,145 deaths and 21,269 cases of paralysis (of varying levels) (ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_polio#Epidemics). In the last roughly-year-and-a-half, COVID-19 has caused 716,370 reported deaths (ref: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100k..., but it'll probably be higher by the time you check).

So COVID has been killing people at over 100x the rate of polio at its worst.

Also, polio didn't overload the capacity of the healthcare system the same way COVID keeps doing. This causes consequences for people without COVID who need access to healthcare.

>I had covid, it was like a really bad flu.

COVID has highly variable symptoms; taking your particular experience as typical is a mistake. In a lot of cases, COVID is asymptomatic. In another lot, it's roughly like yours. In a smaller, but still significant fraction, it's much more serious, involving hospitalization. (Also, something like half of symptomatic cases involve ongoing "long COVID" symptoms.) In an even smaller, but again still significant (see above) fraction, it's fatal.

gdavisson··on Intellectuals urge Germany to keep nuclear plants online
Why would that be the case? Shutting down nuclear plants doesn't increase the production capacity from renewables. For a given renewable production capacity, there's a fixed amount that has to be made up from non-renewable sources; since coal is pretty clearly the worst of those, you use things other than coal -- anything other than coal -- first, and kill off coal as fast as possible.

If you have a way to increase the renewable capacity to make up for a decrease in nuclear production, why not do that anyway, and shut down more coal production instead of nuclear?

gdavisson··on Quickemu: Quickly create and run optimised Win-10,11/macOS/Linux on Linux
Ignoring the legal and accounting details, the basic idea is that macOS is something that Apple includes with each Mac computer that they sell.

If you don't own a Mac, you don't own macOS. If you own a Mac and some other computer(s), you own macOS for the Mac, but not for the computer(s). You might've purchased an upgrade to a newer version of macOS, but if you don't already own a Mac, you don't have something to upgrade, so the upgrade doesn't grant you ownership of macOS.

Now, from a legal point of view, it's a good deal different from (and more complicated than) that, but that's the basic idea. So don't make the mistake of thinking that because Apple gives macOS away for free to Mac owners, and don't use elaborate and onerous copy protection or license-tracking nonsense, that you're entitled to install it on something other than a Mac.

gdavisson··on The WHO lists Mu as a Variant of Interest
The vaccines (of all types) aren't somehow an alternate to our immune systems, they're a way to boost our immune systems' response. And yes, they do make the immune system significantly more effective in responding to COVID infection. Go read this: https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-...
gdavisson··on The WHO lists Mu as a Variant of Interest
Unfortunately our immune systems aren't that great at dealing with COVID-19. This has been extensively tested over the last year and a half, with the result that well over 4 million people have died (so far).
gdavisson··on macOS gatekeeper and file quarantine bypass
It's not that macOS doesn't trust you, it's that macOS doesn't trust the programs you're running. Specifically, it doesn't trust the programs to do what you want them to, and only what you want them to.

And it's not just a matter of protecting you against out-and-out malware (although that's certainly part of it), it's a matter of protecting you against developers whose interests don't entirely align with yours. Developers who really want to spy on their users seem to be the biggest group (see, for example, the recent Apple vs. Facebook kerfuffle).

Unfortunately, distrusting software does add friction, especially if you add (/update-via-unsupported-mechanisms) new software frequently. "Are you sure you meant to run this program? It looks weird to me; I think you should get rid of it. Should it really have access to your contacts/camera/etc?" macOS is acting a little like an overprotective parent here, and it's certainly annoying. But the threats it's trying to protect you from are real. You can turn the protections off (with a certain amount of work), but then you're vulnerable to all the stuff it's there to protect you from.

P.s. I don't mean to completely defend Apple here. Their preferred solution is to have all software distribution go through their App store... where they get a cut of the price. Which means they're also on the list of developers whose interests don't entirely align with yours.

gdavisson··on How to do things safely in Bash (2018)
I agree with almost everything in this guide, but it has a couple of recommendations that create new problems (while solving others):

The nullglob option ('shopt -s nullglob') makes things like 'for f in .txt' work right when there are no matching files, but make other commands like 'grep somepattern .txt' change their behavior in ways that can cause serious trouble. grep (and many other commands), given no files as input, will read from standard input (up to the EOF); if it's running interactively and input hasn't been redirected, this causes the script to hang for no discernible reason. If input has been redirected, it steals input that was presumably meant to be read by some other command. In my opinion, the problems this causes are more serious than what it solves.

The errexit option ('set -e' or 'shopt -s errexit') can both fail to exit when you expect/want it to (several such situations are described in the guide) and also exit when you don't expect/want it to. The guide mentions suppressing unexpected exits with '|| true', but it's not always obvious when this is needed, and it's not even consistent between versions of bash. There's a good parable about this (and some examples) at http://mywiki.wooledge.org/BashFAQ/105

I really don't like trying to predict and work around unpredictable features like this; I'd much rather deal with explicit error handling, like 'commandThatMightFail || { echo "Aaaargh" >&2; exit 1; }'

gdavisson··on Do not use redirection characters in your shell prompt
That implies you should put a space before the # in the root prompt, because it's not recognized as a comment delimiter if it's in the middle of a "word".
gdavisson··on U.S. had its coldest February in more than 30 years
It's not a matter of welcome vs unwelcome, it's a matter of global & persistent vs local and transient. Or, to put it another way, the larger your sample size, the better the signal-to-noise ratio is. So a single-month anomaly in one country isn't nearly as meaningful as a global anomaly over a whole year (which in turn is less meaningful than a global multi-year average).

And this is just local & transient. There's a good article that discusses this (and related things) at Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2021/02/19/3-t.... Take a look at the temperature anomaly map at the bottom; it shows a big colder-than-usual area over the central US, and another over Siberia. But it also shows warmer-than-usual areas in between them (around the North Pole), and another in Southern Asia. And it lists the "World" anomaly as 0.0 °C. So it's not that everything was colder, it was just that the cold was in different places than usual, and we happened to be one of the colder-than-usual places.

But that map is just for February 19. When I look at the map for today (https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom), I see a cold area across part of Russia, and another around Alaska, but also warm bands across the Eastern US, Asia-Mideast-part-of-Africa, and parts of Antarctica. The World anomaly is listed as +0.4°C. Neither of these single-day maps tells you that much about what's going on in the longer term.

Similarly, this anomalous cold month in the US was just February. According to the report: "Meteorological winter (December through February) was quite mild and dry across the contiguous U.S. The average temperature was 33.6 degrees F, 1.4 degrees above average, placing Winter 2021 in the warmest third of the winter record. Maine had its third-warmest winter; California had its 12th warmest." So while February was colder than usual here, December and January were warm enough to more than make up for it.

But again, that's just three months in one country. If you look at the US report on all of 2020 (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202012), it was the fifth-warmest on record, and 1.33°C (2.4°F) above the 20th-century average. And globally (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202012), 2020 was the second-highest temperature on record, 0.98°C (1.76°F) above the 20th-century average.

You can certainly find many days and months where it was unusually cold in a particular country or region, and many where it was much hotter than usual in a particular country or region. But that doesn't really mean much of anything; you really need to look at averages over larger areas and longer times.

gdavisson··on Git: Malicious repositories can execute remote code while cloning
There are three kinds of programmers:

  1) Those who number lists starting at 1.
  1) Those who number lists starting at 0.
  2.5) Stan Kelly-Bootle, who proposed a compromise.
gdavisson··on United B772 at Denver on Feb 20th 2021, engine inlet separates from engine
I'm pretty sure "garden" is being used in the British sense, roughly corresponding to "yard" in American English.
gdavisson··on Calvin and Hobbes Search Engine
A friend of mine was reading a C&H book (probably the same one) a while back. Suddenly he ran to the bathroom, and there was a flush followed by gales of laughter.

He was in his thirties.

gdavisson··on Unix Recovery Legend (1986)
I'm not that familiar with the relevant systems, but this was before plug-and-play was a thing, and moving drives around wasn't a minor operation. Mario mentions a similar option in the article: "Another solution might be to borrow a disk from another VAX, boot off that, and tidy up later, but that would have entailed calling the DEC engineer out, at the very least. "
gdavisson··on If your cipher were secure, this image wouldn't have repeating patterns (2015)
Here's a video of three flat-Earthers discussing (arguing) about it with three round-Earthers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7yvvq-9ytE. They appear genuine, and remind me quite a bit of the anti-evolutionists I sometimes argue with (and who are definitely genuine).

And then there's "Mad" Mike Hughes, who just managed to kill himself in a rocket he was hoping to fly high enough to see that the Earth wasn't curved... or something. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51602655

gdavisson··on A common mistake involving wildcards and the find command
Seconded. Here https://apple.stackexchange.com/questions/378942/cant-initia... is an example of what can happen from not checking for errors after a `cd` command. Summary: "sudo find ... -delete" ran in the root directory rather than the intended location, and now the OS is gone (probably along with lots more).
gdavisson··on CursedFS – Disk image that is simultaneously ext2 and FAT
IIRC Apple used to do something like this on their installer DVDs (back when they shipped the OS on DVDs). The Mac OS X installer was on an HFS+ volume pointed to by an Apple Partition Map (which would only be recognized by Mac OS X and the Mac's boot firmware), but the DVD also had an ISO 9660 header (that'd be recognized by Windows) pointing to Windows-compatible drivers for the Mac hardware. Completely separate volumes, with completely separate content.
gdavisson··on Astronomers Despair as Starlink Train Ruins Observation of Nearby Galaxies
Satellites at higher orbit will be visible longer after sunset, both because they'll be in sunlight for a larger part of their orbit and because they'll be visible (above the horizon) to observers further away. The train is currently at about half of the satellites' intended final altitude.
gdavisson··on 2nd Law of Thermodynamics Doesn't Prohibit a Decrease of Entropy
This article starts from a completely wrong premise: a beneficial mutation is not a decrease of entropy in a closed system. There's no closed system involved.

Organisms are not thermodynamically closed, because they take in both material and some sort of free energy (whether together in the form of food, or separately as in water, air, sunlight, etc), and also emit both waste heat and waste material. Organisms don't even have any (nontrivial) closed subsystems.

Most of the interesting things organisms do -- grow, reproduce, evolve progressively, maintain their states -- run counter to the general thermodynamic tendency for systems to approach equilibrium. This does not violate the second law of thermodynamics because organisms' inputs have lower entropy (and higher free energy) than their outputs. As long as there's more entropy leaving than coming in, internal entropy decrease is allowed by the second law (up to the difference between influx and efflux).

(Actually, I'm cheating a little bit here. Entropy is a property of things, not a thing itself, so talking about it entering or leaving isn't really right. But it acts like a thing, and entropy flux is (usually) well-defined and acts as you'd expect flow of a physical thing to work.)

(BTW, there's a bit of inconsistent terminology here. Physicists call systems that don't exchange either energy or matter with their surroundings "closed". Chemists call those systems "isolated", and use "closed" for systems that exchange energy but not matter. Which physicists call "open". Yeesh. Anyway, this version of the second law applies to physicist-closed/chemist-isloated systems. Organisms exchange both energy and matter, so they're "open" in either terminology.)

gdavisson··on Boeing Built Deadly Assumptions into 737 Max, Blind to a Late Design Change
"Other issues" is what worries me most about this as well. We now know that MCAS is safety-critical, so it's going to be reviewed, but what else got missed/minimized during the design and review process? The fact that Boeing is still trying to minimize the danger of MCAS does not fill me with confidence in their willingness to raise and fix other problems.

They don't seem to have learned from this, which means it's likely to happen again.

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