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enord

433 karma · joined March 22, 2012

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enord··on The AI Unbundling
You quite studiously compared every ostensible disruption to the preceding state of the art to (quite convincingly IMO) reveal the material consequeces to be… less than world shattering, shall we say. Your example of Amazon and walmart does the converse.

And yet, with «stable diffusion» it is just so. Disruption is declared wholesale, without even passing mention of the preceding state of the art of computer generated art.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but do you not see the own goal here?

enord··on Cost of Attrition
We are not in disagreement here. I was making a comparison in kind as a cheap rhetoric trick. Documentation is good, no documentation bad, good documentation can be better.

Slide along the scale towards more and better documentation and our perceptions might diverge. I don't think all the valuable know-how that goes in to fulfilling a specific role in a larger organization (and in particular the marginal knowledge, relations and skill that increases performance) can be captured in words. Even if it were, there is so much of it and it is full of subtle nuance and context sensitivity. On top of that each individual person takes to different parts of it in different ways. The things you can only learn by jumping in at the deep end. We all know, deep inside, that this is the stuff that matters and I see no reason to play charades and pretend we can know or see how even half of what we do really works. If we did, the world would be a very different place. Until then: tacit, implicit, context bound and relation contingent knowledge and skill will be the light that shines on our practice; and what we can put in to words, a mere shadow.

enord··on Cost of Attrition
>Defects is a metric businesses doesn't care much about.

This depends on both the defect and the business. Just because critical regressions and recurring denial of service has become normalized as somehow par for the course in our line of business does not mean it comes without cost. It's all situational and subject to calculated tradeoffs but every shop i've worked with/in has classes of defects on the "Never Again" list, and sometimes on the "NEVER EVER EVER AT ANY COST" list.

enord··on Cost of Attrition
Military veterans of some theater of war are desired exactly because they will perform well in the next theater of war.

I don't think i can fully appreciate how mind-bogglingly huge a company like Google is, so it might well be the case that tacit knowledge, skills and relations acquired in one team don't transfer meaningfully to another. I would have to see it to be convinced however, even more so to make me believe this kind of transfer was the norm.

enord··on Cost of Attrition
Well, you've reduced competition for employees from THE REST OF THE WORLD to a handful of companies, the executives of which you met for golf and sherry last Tuesday.
enord··on Cost of Attrition
Well yes, if we could only train new employees for 20 years in the specific curricula of the organization, as that is how long we spend getting pi and calculus into the heads of kids.

On the scale of lifetimes, I don't think we can refer to it as "churn" as understood in the context of a modern company.

I'm being facile, of course. Developing a good library of knowledge as you propose is hard, takes a long time and many iterations and there is the unfortunate matter of time taking it's toll on the relevance of such recorded knowledge (esp. in our line of work). Not to mention costs. Even academic institutions, who are in the business of doing exactly this, guard their staff with tenure (some of the staff anyway, the big boys)

enord··on Cost of Attrition
Excellent point IMO! For an organization to believe itself the sole proprietor of relevant and useful knowledge within it's domain of operation is pure hubris.

So too is believing it is anything more than a community of individuals, cooperating on the basis of shared- and tacit knowledge as well as skill to perform the different tasks that comprise business operations. Tacit knowledge and skill resides in the specific individuals, and shared knowledge in the specific relations between individuals. Losing an individual is losing part of aggregate tacit knowledge and skill, as well as all the specific relations shared by the individual. The organization as a thing-in-the-world loses part of itself not captured by it's charter and governing contracts (or share value, or business strategy, i could go on). These things are hard to quantify on the best of days, so to assume (or even mandate) that this cost is incurred with net benefit (by, as you say, hiring some industry heavy-hitter who is expected to bring the goods) is fraught with unknowns, and on balance likely hubris.

enord··on Cost of Attrition
I would assume this as well, when i think about it. I guess learning about the industrial revolution in school kind of messed up my preconceptions.

Anyhow, this military comparison just keeps sprouting thoughts in my head. Isn't an owner-management almost perfectly comparable to aristocratic officership? Is GGP's theory of defensible churn basically a modern incarnation of feudalism and aristocratic privelege?

enord··on Cost of Attrition
Just look at FAANG: Retain developers at (almost) any cost.

Pay developers like it's monopoly money.

You could call this "The benefit of retention", though that may be a bit reductive.

enord··on Cost of Attrition
I mean, for assembly-line production this might ring true (I wouldn't know, never did it). But for what one might reasonably categorize as "knowledge work", my experience is that knowledge reigns supreme. Some of that knowledge is shared by a whole community of practitioners, other parts of it is local and contextualized. This part probably makes up a sizable proportion of an organizations competitive advantage.

To make workers replaceable is to rely mostly on the knowledge you can reasonably expect to regain on rehire. Remember: Management (up to owner-management) are also workers, so running some kind of special culture-and-knowledge preserving über-organization is predicated on somehow retaining the structures that support and maintain this secret sauce. Military services around the world have researched this extensively (for obvious reasons), then again, we refer to a well-seasoned and experienced practitioner as a veteran. Veterans are invaluable in military service, as they are in any other endeavor. Trade them off against ease-of-management at your own peril.

enord··on The carpetbagger’s guide to home ownership
Money. The shares you are talking about already exist, and they're called "money". Of course, the relative value of shares wrt. the house will fluctuate over time and you'd have to account for this when transferring between houses, except this is calculated for you by the market when you just use money.
enord··on 10 years of whatever this has been
Some sibling comments argue that the USA is a religion in the same sense, which is a nice thought experiment and a fair comparison.

However, I think it's incumbent on us compare bitcoin as a religion to the prevailing mode of social organization (or religion, as it were) where money is concerned:

  The Rule of Law
and it's missionary arm

  International Trade Relations
Except for this, whatever one realizes from bitcoin holdings (read: exchange ledger holdings for legal tender) is just numbers on paper.

I just don't see how bitcoin can fulfill any of it's purported roles (asset, currency, value-store) outside the rule of law, and yet flouting the established legal ways of settling transactions, asserting ownership and saving for the future were all part of the elevator pitch.

This begs the question: What effect will bitcoin have on the rule of law? I fear that, on net, it may serve to undermine our legal, liberal traditions by antagonizing proponents to the regular economy and pursuant democratic processes for improving its shortcomings.

More directly, the unregulated nature of the bitcoin economy leaves affected societies knee-capped in managing externalities and second order effects right where the incentives are the most perverse (on the ledger), forcing heavy-handed and perhaps illiberal responses from regulators. Success on it's own terms will spell bitcoins demise so long as belief in the rule of law remains stronger than in crypto-utopia (I will take that bet).

enord··on Man left shocked as his house is 'stolen'
>Possession is a physical/real property of the universe

This assertion immediately falls apart on consideration IMO. Even in simple, controlled circumstances like football, the meaning of "possession" is subject to mutual agreement (i.e. "rules").

You could take some particular definition of "possession" as "natural" or otherwise axiomatic. This is not unheard of, but I think it's a trick of misdirection to place it in the domain of the "physical/real" when it is plainly a political matter.

enord··on The Myth of a Superhuman AI
"Som fanden leser bibelen" - Norwegian proverb, lit.: "Like the devil reads the bible"

I sense that your arguments are in concordance with TFA, broadly speaking. Also, I suspect you read it rather uncharitably for reasons having to do with tone or stated thesis. Either that, or my reading comprehension is failing me. Maybe I want it to be more convincing that it really is, as i already laid bare my sentiments towards accelerationist woo.

enord··on The Myth of a Superhuman AI
Everybody wants to be the Fox Mulder of their story.
enord··on The Myth of a Superhuman AI
You're making an argument that is already in TFA. It's in addition -and only partially related to- the main point which is: The arguments that are commonly used to demonstrate the possibility or threat of "ASI" are made from claims presented _without evidence_.

This will invalidate fantastical accelerationist woo until such evidence is presented, and -in the current state of the art research within relevant fields- it's not even certain we can know what would constitute such evidence _in principle_.

enord··on Objection to ORM Hatred
I'm beginning to suspect a big problem here is one of level-violation. At least in the often promised push-button domainObjectClass to domainEntityTable ORM (batteries included).

Three common (IME) manifestations:

1. the domainObjectClass is disallowed to do something across the ORM due to constraints enforced on the domainEntityTable (varchar truncation, anyone? No? Just me?)

2. some domainObjects fetched through the ORM are deserialized into an implicitly (e.g. null/empty collection members) or explicitly (violates some invariant enforced by domainObjectClass) invalid state

3. domainObjectClass has to grow hairy with bookkeeping metadata (read: implementation details) to facilitate work with partial object graphs while still enforcing domain invariants on the data in scope (null vs DbNull, "object with PK already exists" oh God please just kill me now)

The common cause for the preceding examples is that the ORM (and it's tutorials) encourage you to do the same domain modelling twice, for the price of one. To wit: You do your domain modelling in your classes and the ORM translates this into a database schema with the same entities at the same level of abstraction. This causes a coupling of the semantics of database constraints to your domain objects and vice-versa: your database records may not violate domainObjectClass invariants otherwise inexpressible in the database engine.

Whether or not this is a problem depends on context, but it happens either way. If and when it becomes a problem your options are usually: quit, rant on you blog or both.

enord··on Video Games Are the Future of Education
This line again... Education only works insofar as it acculturates children to greater society (or novices to the society of some specific domain). The methods of education are social, present in the surrounding culture and mediated by teachers through social interactions. Consequently, for video games to be "the future of education", video games have to be the future of society as such. Video games are _in_ society, much like music, television and harry potter, but neither are "the future of education". Not even the printing press could upend the basic structure and process of education, only add literacy to the curriculum. Forgive me, but I just don't see "playing video games" make that list in any meaningful way.
enord··on Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality
Nobody will accept liability for actions outside of their control, and car manufacturers can not possibly afford to insure all cars they sell in perpetuity.

Insurance only works if the insuree bears the risk (and it has to be an actual risk with nonzero probability times cost, i'll leave why as an exercise to the reader) and in the case of car accidents, that risk is liability, which people have and computers don't. Can TSLA or Uber be charged and convicted of vehicular manslaughter?

Lower rate of accidents will just lower the market rate of insurance contracts.

enord··on Privately Enforced and Punished Crime
And replacing criminal proceedings with cash fines improves this how?
enord··on APL deserves its renaissance too
I like your take, and Haskell is an apt comparison in this sense.

Another sense in which i think APL is... un-competitive is that its strengths (terse, mathematical, matrix-centered) are the easy parts of programming, i.e. the parts that are the most objectively quantifiable and verifiable (you just use math).

Accounting for numbers is trivial, accounting for human factors is a proverb.

enord··on On null
The nullephant in the room is that procedural programming with mutable state (registers, class fields, whatever) is not trivially amenable to logical analysis, and any constraints introduced to rectify this issue become the topic of a never-ending river of tutorials and navel-gazing rants on the demerits of said tutorials. (See borrow-checkers, linear/affine types, monads etc.)

People want to Get Stuff Done, and preferably without getting all math-y about it. Compile now plz.

Add the null-reference to your spec and Presto! the problem is now confined to userspace.

it can be done, but it's Not Fun, and definetly mathy, e.g. Predicate Transformers or ß-reductions

enord··on The Peter Principle Isn't Just Real, It's Costly
Hypothesis: High outlier @5pctl - outstanding graduates groomed for management. Low outlier @10pctl - family/friends/favours groomed for management.
enord··on Why Nora Vasconcellos is the future of skateboarding
Wait, so... this "thing" that true skaters share, can the posers take that away? If not, why the ire?

All my skater friends are very particular about who's real an who's posing, and also rather hostile towards wrongboarders, inline-skaters, parkour-runners and any other street-based activity except BMX (they're cool somehow). It's all very tribal and I really can't relate.

enord··on Why We Don’t Employ Female Developers
All other things being equal, yes. But therein lies the rub (or the stuffing, if you will).

>Are gray turkeys slimmer on average? Worse? Different distribution? No. They are just harder to find.

Who knows? Anyone who tries to find out are hung out to dry. Now I value my precious bodily fluids so I'll refrain from commenting, but I've heard there's been some science done somewhere, once or twice.

enord··on Why We Don’t Employ Female Developers
>Just from looking at their site, they don't actually seem to be hiring at all. There's a casual “hey, maybe contact us if you want a job!”, but that's only gonna attract the Dunning-Kruger Dudes. (Men are disproportionately conditioned to be over-confident, because boys are rewarded for being noisy and cheeky.)

I think I'm going to have to politely WTF? that, if you don't mind.

enord··on Why We Don’t Employ Female Developers
Sooo... They should pander to women and pre-emptively assume that they're catastrophically sensitive to anything that might be construed as putting gender parity behind anything else, for any reason?

I don't know [wo]man, the cure might be worse then the ailment.

enord··on Ad network uses advanced malware technique to conceal CPU-draining mining ads
Thats the point.
enord··on Why Artificial Intelligence Researchers Should Be More Paranoid
WTF is this? These are and have been problems since forever. Yes, we now have to worry whether someone tries to murder you by replacing your roomba with a RoboWars KillerBot, contrived as it may be. Or even worse... Your voice and image may be FALSIFIED by unscrupulous actors and we are defenseless? There are still people alive from a time when any correspondence was written by hand, delivered by third parties, and the world kept turning.

The only way these contrivances would be harmful was if they were unknown to society at large.

enord··on Concerns that social media causes childhood depression
Hahaha, I remember claiming that expensive phones with crappy cameras was a stupid fad that would blow over. If you dont't make a bold claims you don't get the benefits of hindsight i guess!

I would like to add that I was trying to make a point about morality and nihilism in our culture with developing technology as the backdrop, not the cause as such.

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