The carpetbagger’s guide to home ownership
granolashotgun.com
granolashotgun.com
It isn't SF Bay Bros'/foreigners'/companies' fault that houses are too expensive. It's because of strict zoning laws and a lack of building enough housing to match supply with demand[1]. Demand keeps going up way faster than supply, nationwide, and we're all feeling the squeeze
[1]: A great example of this is the super low housing costs in Tokyo. My mother in-law and sister in-law are renting a 3 bedroom apartment right now, 20 minutes outside Shinjuku (one of the "Giant Bustling Megacity" parts of Tokyo) for $1300/month, which they can comfortably afford while working part time doing low end janitorial work. More info here: https://www.worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-e...
I think people just really hate these “stories” because it’s not realistically repeatable. Someone will make it happen but it’ll be based off luck and nothing else. Even the dude in the fire thing wishes he did startups for 6 years. Mindlessly ignoring he’d get paid way less but oh wait - of course his story would only be posted if he joined a company that IPO’d and he got 8 figures out of it.
It’s just so annoying to see this shit on HN all the time. It’s some weird capitalism fetishism porn.
What is the antithesis here? "You won't succeed, so don't bother trying. Become an employee, rail against capitalism and wage slavery."
Dismissing it as luck can only work if the author succeeded on the first try. Did everyone succeed on the first try? Before it can be called "survivor's bias", you need to survive. If you croak at the first unforeseen and perhaps unfair hardship...
What is missing from many of these stories are the concepts and ideas which were eliminated by failure or analysis. It would be unusual for the first idea that pops into someone's head to come to successful fruition.
Maybe it would be illustrative if the author listed all of his failed endeavors and how he reasoned his way through them. Undoubtedly, it would make for much longer-form content and perhaps ramble off-track from his chosen subject.
Persistence is an unspoken companion to what you flippantly dismiss as luck. Trial and error, iterative improvements and self-sacrifice are also key ingredients.
Of course, you don't need to listen to that. It is much easier to lay blame than manifest the change you wish to see.
I’ve got some money in the stock market that would probably serve humanity better if I bought some unlivable property and spent the time and money to make it livable. Not sure if I want to be a landlord, but the first part appeals to me. We need more housing and I’d love to put my resources behind that effort. Yes, we need sweeping policy changes too. Link me your proposal and I’ll give it a read.
The big bad here is lack of housing supply brought on by NIMBY-ism and a shortage of tradespeople (maybe this also speaks to our inability to evolve housing construction as well), and the danger is more or less that policymakers and voters will read this story and think "see, all you have to do is <list of ridiculous and lucky things> and you too can own a home in one of the most expensive places on Earth."
For policy and such, the problem is complicated. Going to housing site:vox.com in DDG isn't a bad idea. But secondarily, I'm interested in prefab and modular housing. A lot of it is better suited to modern housing needs (more efficient--not just 2x4s, fiberglass and Tyvek, cheaper, less construction waste, way less build time on site, smaller and thus higher density, etc).
Waiting for housing policy to fit with your ideal of a just world isn't reasonable advice for everyone. There are things which for practical intents and purposes, are beyond our control. If you are looking for change, it is better to focus on the things within immediate control.
Conditions are rarely if ever static for extended periods of time. The entrepreneur must adapt to the opportunities presented. The popular idiom is, "Where one door closes, another opens".
The observation about 2008 housing prices was telling. A market can stay depressed for extended periods of time. Pessimists could have experienced that same market and missed the opportunity. When evaluating in hindsight the uncertainty of imperfect information inside the moment can be overlooked.
Not only are opportunities constantly changing, but each individual brings unique knowledge to any given situation. Therefore the opportunities in a given situation are differ from one individual to the next. From this point it is easy to see to the value of adaptation and innovation. The man in the article didn't just accept the world as it is, he thought out of the box and created solutions where others saw problems.
I agree that things have changed and that doors have been closed. Some of them may never open again in our lifetimes. Yet at the same time I feel optimistic. There are incredible opportunities all across the Internet. Many here have the technical skills to realize them, but they lack the entrepreneurial vision.
aww_dang: there's always an opportunity somewhere
camgunz: that may be true, but it can also be true there are fewer opportunities, which I find worrying
aww_dang: but what does that matter if there's always one
camgunz: I think the total number of opportunities matters
aww_dang: I don't
This is wrong, or your definition of "luck" is different to mine and most other people, I assume.
Quitting after 3 coin flips because the flipper sneered at you is called being a quitter. Maybe it was unfair and unlucky that he sneered, but the reason you didn't get 50 wins isn't because the world is unfair or that you are unlucky. It is because you didn't flip a coin 100 times.
Certain ideologies empower you for success. Others turn you into a victim.
This isn’t capitalist fetish porn.
I thought it was a great story about a person that saw the vast opportunities in front of them and used a bit of grit and smarts to make happen the future they wanted.
This person bought before prices in SF were so above and beyond what anyone near that level of income could ever afford.
This is just survivorship bias mixed with a bit of “I did it during a time when prices were nowhere near what they are now”.
Story sucks because it’s not a story of grit and smarts. It’s a story of unrepeatability.
I find high income folks generally want to move away from apartments as they age and they want to do so at a much faster rate than someone in a much lower income bracket would.
Medical: is provided by private companies like Kaiser, who have proven their ability to grow as their customer base grows.
Kindergarten: the school district has excess capacity, as # students has shrunk from 70k+ to fewer than 50k. They will probably need to close some schools to increase utilization.
Streets: the streets in San Francisco are way less crowded than anywhere else I've lived.
Public transport: the last few times I've taken the bus, it's been easy to find a seat. The last time I took the BART it was nearly empty.
Schools: see comment above.
> Public transport: the last few times I've taken the bus, it's been easy to find a seat. The last time I took the BART it was nearly empty.
if that is the case, SF has either the most amazing public transportation already or the most under-used public transportation. or you are simply cheery-picking.
school, kindergarten and medical need to be in close vicinity though. the overall capacity is meaningless for the first two if you build housing for an additional 15k within a few blocks and then have no GPs (and to a lesser extend consultants) within a few minutes of walking or no hospital within a quick driving distance. and if that 70k to 50k (i assume it is not covid related) is uniformly across all kindergartens, it is pretty meaningless for housing
The comment to which you replied was specifically talking about SF so I assumed (reasonably I think) that you were commenting about SF, too.
"if that is the case, SF has either the most amazing public transportation already or the most under-used public transportation. or you are simply cheery-picking."
Those are not the only explanations. And, given I said live in SF, maybe it's reasonable to assume I'm reporting actual observations, unless I've previously demonstrated some pattern of exaggeration.
- I happened to get lucky on my last 5 journeys
- Many people how have more flexibility about when they start/end work, even if they're not working remotely
- People are avoiding public transport due to worries about COVID and increasing crime
- Outside of peak hours, buses still need to run with some minimum frequency to be a viable option, so they often run empty or with only 1-5 passengers
You could come up with others...
I'm ex-bay area since 2016, but I recall standing room only BART and shoulder-to-shoulder CALTRAIN can't add another body when heading to south bay. Although I didn't take SF bus, or send kids to Kindergarten.
The enrollment dropped from 2019 to now, but by something like 5k (on my phone and don't have the exact stats handy).
My anecdotes about the last few journeys I took are recent, not from 2019. But, even in 2019, my experience of public transport in San Francisco was that it was far less crowded than that in London, New York or Beijing.
SF's roads are not congested. If buses were to become crowded due to increased population, we could just buy more buses and increase the frequency. This would keep crowding at current levels, whilst reducing wait times, thus making buses far more convenient than they are today.
Regarding Caltrain: if SF had more housing, fewer people who work in SF would need to live outside and take Caltrain in.
Where exactly do you think schooling and medical practices happen or children are taken care of?
>Public transport
How hard is to coordinate to double the number of trains or buses?
> Streets
I don't know what you mean by the demand of streets increases.
Most times solving the housing problem is a lack of will or coordination, and the solution is muddled/deleted/delayed indefinitely by arguments like this.
So it's even more efficient with higher population.
in close vicinity of the housing. not sure i understand the question.
> How hard is to coordinate to double the number of trains or buses?
running a bus during peak hours at twice your current rate (unless the rate is completely ridicilous) does not sound easy. why do you assume it is? at that rate, for SF at least, you are talking subway.
by streets i meant the higher volume during peak hours that need to be sustained (walking, cycling, driving, busses, trams, parking etc).
The 14R (the fastest bus from my home to downtown SF) is scheduled to run every 10 mins (on average) during the morning peak.
Running that bus every 5 mins (which presents no special difficulty) would double the capacity, and reduce average wait time by 5 mins.
I didn't mention trams.
I wasn't making a general case that's applicable to every city.
I was talking about specifically about SF, which has relatively uncongested roads, bus lanes that are mostly empty, and where the busiest bus stops receive buses no more than ~10 times per hour.
> Running that bus every 5 mins (which presents no special difficulty) would double the capacity, and reduce average wait time by 5 mins.
the problem with public transportation among other things are connections. running specific buses with a higher frequency does not give you a lower wait time (on the journey) but only on that stop.
> I didn't say every bus. > I didn't mention trams.
ok i don't get it. why did you bring this up at all then?
Separate from that, I don't believe zoning has anything to do with housing shortages. Housing has "induced demand" similar to traffic. You can look at heavy traffic over a bridge and think, "if only we had another bridge, that would alleviate the traffic." But it turns out, when you do that, more people end up using both bridges and traffic becomes as bad as it was before. Housing is similar. If you build more houses, even more people want them. Look at places like NYC, which has extremely dense housing. It's still expensive.
With regard to NYC, even though it has added around 250-300K housing units over the past fifteen years or so, it has added around three times that in jobs. If housing supply isn't increasing in line with people, you will see increases in prices.
Some links:
- https://www.planetizen.com/news/2019/06/104783-doubt-cast-in...
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7FB_xI-U6w
- https://furmancenter.org/thestoop/entry/supply-skepticism-ho...
- https://furmancenter.org/files/sotc/SOC_2017_FOCUS_Changes_i... (the key quote here being: "In 2016, NYC had 8.2 percent more housing units, 11 percent more adults, and 16.5 percent more jobs than it did in 2000.")
I'm not arguing that sprawl is inherently bad, but it definitely does add the need to own a car (for most people) and spend a lot of time in it (ditto).
Both problems need to be solved, one with more housing, one with tax incentives.
I was living there with my wife and her two family members and had no trouble at all. That place was about 700 square feet, but it felt like an 1100 square foot place would in the US with giant furniture and large open floor spaces. I had a ~150 square foot room set aside for my office and VR space, the in-laws had a bedroom with tatami mats, there was a large-ish living room/kitchen with a big TV and couch, and then a bedroom for me and the wife
Lastly, Japan has succeeded where others have failed because of a cultural difference which highly values new builds over old homes. They dispose of their homes and rebuild, as often as the US disposes of old cars and builds replacements... So political leverage by real estate investors is less of a concern there, a 30 year old home might be considered close to worthless. At the same time it creates other risk externalization problems like a colossal amount of inefficiency and waste. The only way to get a similar result of reasonable pricing in urban areas where real estate is profit-driven as opposed to use-driven, would be though affordable public housing as a counterbalance. We've seen time and again that capitalist housing development will naturally result in more capitalist-driven inequality. Investors will continue to buy making the bubble worse, then when the bubble pops the rich buy even more stock as disproportionately middle class and poor investors are forced to liquidate, as happened in the 2008 bust.
[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tu32CCA_Ig
[2]:https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/8/16112368/pi... (or the same chart any of dozens of places)
The market its screwed up in the Bay Area because they in way more jobs than they wanted to let in housing, that’s a problem, but I don’t begrudge people that want to put limits on density because they want to live in a certain kind of place.
Ifbyou want control over who can move in somewhere, or what can be built somewhere, you have a simple solution, buy the land in question.
NIMBYs will argue that, in a certain sense, they did: they bought the land their houses stand on decades or centuries ago, when the area was farm land, and then promoted a city charter for a certain type of community, together with every other citizen in the area. They paid taxes for local infrastructure, schools, time and effort to organize and solve community issues, inconvenience when a new water mains or bypass was built etc. etc.
This whole communal development is what made the area desirable, it's not like they are hoarding limited farmland. It's the combination of private property + working community rules that create property value.
Some owners in the area would now opt out of those rules outside the democratic process pre-agreed to their change, by simply building a large condo building on their plot, depreciating the value of nearby single family homes and pocketing the cash. You can imagine existing owners will fight tooth and nail to maintain the agreed rules.
While i don't 100% subscribe to this point of view and there is much to be said about the exclusionary and down right racist behavior it can enable, the issue of urban development is not quite as clear cut as you make it out to be.
I believe the comparison to limited farmland is actually much more appropriate. Land in SF or Seattle is a very valuable and scarce resource. It can help a lot of people when used efficiently.
If you take Seattle for example, the land isn’t valuable because NIMBYs did such a great job running the city. They’ve done an awful job. Every possible mistake has been made. The land is valuable because it’s close to Amazon or Microsoft.
I don’t think that a decline in my property’s value should be a basis for legal restrictions on another person’s right to use their property. That seems like a hijacking of the legal system for my own personal wealth at the very real cost of others.
If a wealthy landowner in Seattle wants a yard and hates the look of skyscrapers, they can sell their land for millions of dollars and buy in a community more suited to their tastes. Nobody likes to move, but making it illegal to use land efficiently for one’s own convenience is frankly pretty disgusting to me.
https://www.sandyjournal.com/2021/10/04/370780/how-does-new-...
My biggest issue with increased density is shit design. Like, when they spent all the money on lawyers to get approval and stiffed the architects. When it is a nice 5 story building I love it.
It seems like too many people only have ideals about politics when those ideals result in everyone agreeing with them. Otherwise the whole thing is a rigged scam and not worth the time.
I'm sure that the non-elected technocrats wouldn't be susceptible to the "represented by millionaires" problem that you bemoaned about earlier.
> Ifbyou want control over who can move in somewhere, or what can be built somewhere, you have a simple solution, buy the land in question.
That seems contradictory. The existing owners did by definition buy that land they own. So you're saying thus they get to decide, but also that no they don't.
All I can think of is to spread the word about zoning laws, since currently we're still in a situation where renters mostly just get angry at foreigners, rich people, corporations, etc.
Tokyo probably takes things to an extreme that Americans wouldn't like (all the zoning laws are restricted by the national government, as I understand it). I just think it'd be nice if everyone stuck renting overpriced crapholes in the SF Bay Area would start showing up and voting for denser housing
This is not a difference of perspective - home loans involve significantly more consumer protections than commercial ones; had things gone another way, the author'd be paying substantially more in rent to whatever landlord purchased the foreclosed five-plex.
Most of the article sweeps risk under the rug as do most stories where the winner is also a lucky survivor.
Their partner apparently isn’t a house cleaner and supposedly makes a decent living.
IMO (in the process of doing this myself), this is the most important point
For living arrangements, you are mostly correct. I can exist very comfortably in about 1,000ft². Heck, even 800ft² would be comfy and cosy.
My problem involves my hobbies and domestic activities: I need a 200ft² cool room for the enormous amounts of fruits and vegetables I harvest every year, canning all that shit needs a 150ft² summer kitchen so I don’t seize up my regular kitchen with all that processing (I use that summer kitchen consistently at least six months out of the year), I need a library the size of a master bedroom (at least another 200ft²) for my books (including the movable stacks on rails), I do enough woodworking to need a garage-sized shop (500ft²) , and my IT work requires no small office (180ft² and an attached server room (80ft²) with its own cooling. Plus, I regularly use a wet sauna, which needs the same amount of room as a laundry.
So that balloons my requirements by _at least_ another 1,500ft², to say nothing of the needs of my wife.
This is true of initial 800 sq ft as well.
Everything is a want when you want it to be. Is even living really a need? After all - you can just die and then you don’t definitely don’t need/want anything then for sure!
Prioritising your finances over a satisfying and interesting life sounds dull, and like a great way to make yourself mentally unwell if you do it for too long.
Not everyone’s preferred life “needs” much space but when yours does, not having it can be very stifling and stressful.
This is pretty obvious if you don't take a deliberately uncharitable perspective on what I wrote.
Arguing they're just two points on the same scale makes me wonder if you have some sort of agenda to argue that people don't really need bedrooms because they don't really need summer kitchens.
That's a great way to live and I approve of it, but I remain steadfastly convinced that it's good for humans to have some unnecessary luxuries.
It'd be amazing if everyone had things they don't need. I'd love to live in a world where everyone had what they need and more. That's a no brainer.
The problem is that you're saying "the luxuries they're unwilling to compromise on" should be considered needs because some entitled rich idiot isn't able to accept that they could actually live with just one kitchen. That's stupid. They're still luxuries, and absolutely not equivalent to actual needs.
Needs and wants are not the same things. Arguing that they are, and that they're just two things on a scale of wants, or that they're two things on a scale of needs, ignores that there are things people actually need and things that people can live without.
I'm not arguing that rekabis shouldn't have their second kitchen. I'm only saying that they could live without it, and that they would probably give it up before giving up the privacy of their bedroom. Maybe that's wrong. Perhaps they could put a bed in it and sleep there. I don't know.
The broader point here is that whittling away everything nice about your life to be "economically efficient" (as per the original comment I replied to) is a terrible idea unless you've got no alternative. People should have nice things, like windows and kitchens, and they should have better reasons than economic efficiency for giving them up. I don't think you or I disagree on this.
This goes full circle to what you were arguing against earlier.
It is indeed true that humans always strive for more than minimal subsistence and this is part of living. Thus it is not illogical to have things which go beyond the bare minimum to survive. They're technically "wants", but that's what it means to live.
Everyone posting to say "but if you accept that needs are more than air and water then you must be saying a home-based cannery is essential for the human condition!" are just being idiots.
I will keep the 1st editions, and most reference books.
I feel can toss everyone of my computer books. (Not one did I find well written, or worth keeping. If anyone decided to write a computer/programming book take out every unneeded word. Maybe take a technical writing course if you live near a good university?)
It's just hard to get rid of reference books.
He's died now, I took over the flat, and moved from a family home into the same flat. I also had to shed a lot of books in the process. I ripped my large CD collection to a media server. I miss some of those books I got rid of; but I like this small flat, and I don't want to dedicate a small room to a library.
The first books I got rid of were computer books. They were all manuals for some obsolescent technology; like, I thought the "Rhino" Javascript book would be useful forever (um, no). I got rid of a few feet of books on Buddhism, and several more feet were books on Western philosophy from my undergraduate days. These were books that had been formative for me, but I was honestly never going to open them again.
So I don't really agree with my father's advice. If you regret ditching a book, you can just replace it.
That's what the internet + ebooks are for.
Unless a book has a special meaning to me personally or is considered life changing, I rarely keep any physical books.
With technical books, I often need to jump to another section, which is so much slower and more painful than with dead trees. Code formatting also tends to be abysmal on my reader—although books are not the best for this either. Maybe I’m not using my device to the fullest?
lol
How this will be perceived? Very positively, at least by me. Good for them. We're not talking about a slumlord here.
And the cherry on top is that they use their new found wealth to deny others the opportunity they had.
And sure, any wealth story has some piece that involves luck and/or timing. Nothing wrong with that.
Yes. The number of affordable fixer uppers in a place like Madison is effectively fixed. The two houses they bought means two fewer young people can climb onto the property ladder.
>And sure, any wealth story has some piece that involves luck and/or timing. Nothing wrong with that.
The wrong part is not having the self awareness to realize that they were lucky.
“We are renting to willing tenants at the fair market price.”
Landlord’s cant “drive up the rent” any more than employees can be unfairly paid too much.
I feel this distinction is important because it could guide whether the solution is based on encouraging more capital investment to do things like increase density, or whether the solution is essentially to ban outside investment.
I choose to move to SF knowing that rents were absurd compared to other cities I could have moved to. But I choose to roll the dice on SF being the better choice.
I get it that people who grew up in SF face a different choice - leave or not. But it’s still a choice for them.
The real problem is elsewhere - by constraining supply landowners are inhibiting economic development. Newcomers have a choice, if accommodation is too high they'll go elsewhere, so economic growth in productive industries will take place elsewhere.
Man, not too long ago I shitcanned a new job 4 days in over the insane housing prices. A good number of my colleagues had a sideline in Airbnb, that asset inflation machine.
There's far too much capital sunk in real estate, where it could not be more unproductive.
In the UK we have a lot of private landlords - some have borrowed heavilly and are merely expoloiting their ability to obtain a mortgage where their tenants can not and are making marginal amounts of money in the process (often much less than if they simply invested what cash they have in a tracker fund). Some have inherited a property or are renting out buildings they bought twenty years ago where the amount of rent they charge is multiple times out of sync with their actual costs.
So long as all of these people can say they are only charging 'fair market' prices then the problem persists.
Setting aside appreciation, doing this is the closest thing to a guaranteed success imaginable. Leverage lowers your start-up costs, renting enables all your house work to be deductible, the rent itself allows you do pay down your principle faster, and most importantly you were going to live there anyway so your opportunity cost is 0.
One is freeing up $1-2k of disposable income that you can afford to spend on living in the most desirable place, but maybe would rather not.
Another is to feel less alone. Also, having somebody in the apartment when you're away, who could take care of a delivery or a pet may be important.
They’re pennywise pound foolish types usually tho.
They are uncommon after around age 30 unless financially necessary.
If you're older than 30 or married you probably won't be interested in a roommate simply to save money unless you already know the person well or you have a mother in-law apartment set-up.
Just get a handyman, or a tenant agent.
That's what landlords do and they always come out on top.
My parents were landlords for nearly two decades. Their property was not a good investment even though they kept cost down by doing all the work themselves.
not really, you still need to factor in the cost of capital (ie. downpayment) and the risk that the housing market might collapse.
I disagree - if you're talking about bubbles collapsing that's true no matter how you store your money, e.g. inflation ruining savings, stock market correction, etc.
You need a place to live anyway and government incentives will reduce your cost of living far below renting anyway.
What is true is that you drastically reduce your liquidity but I already presumed that in the scenario anyway by saying staying a few years (any housing correction historically will be resolved in a few years), if applicable
This is not true, and paints an unfair and unrealistic viewpoint.
> There would be no drama with rent controlled tenants
> The landlord did the math and agreed to sell to us at below the full market value. He would be saving so much money by avoiding the associated legal challenges from disgruntled tenants that he would net the same profit even at a slightly lower price.
It's clear from these statements that the good intentions of the politicos in SF are artificially inflating the cost of housing. The only way forward for this person was to work around those issues.
Yes, it was lucky that all of those tenants were going to move out at the same time the landlord was thinking of selling, but this person was ready to take advantage of the opportunity when it presented itself. Taking advantage meant a lot of work and coordination.
This pattern repeats with buying in Sonoma. They had prepared themselves to be ready for an opportunity, and when the opportunity arose, they could take advantage.
It’s actually an impressive story.
Have you seen the housing price index for Pittsfield, MA: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS38340Q
Pittsfield. In Western MA. Not a desirable area. But it's going up, up, up. Asset inflation at its finest. This needs to stop, but it's unclear how. Can people invest in tulips instead, you can do without pretty flowers, but a roof over your head is a necessity for life!
People comparing cars to houses make no sense.
If housing were thought of more as a consumable than ones primary investment that would accelerate better use of land for housing.
Imagine all of humanity living in a single skyscraper that can be built up indefinitely. Perhaps a condo closer to the ground floor would be more expensive, or maybe at the top, or maybe west, east, etc.
Certain land being worth more than others is more a function of the inherent differences in things than anything else.
The reason housing increases in value to the extent that it does is that areas where it's in high demand prohibit creating more of it. It would be like prohibiting the construction of new cars. Obviously that would make existing cars cost more in general, independent of the fact that some cars are worth more than others.
The problem with your argument is that it's predicated on it being physically impossible to build more housing of the same type that people want. If people prefer to live close enough to the ground that they don't have to ride an elevator for an hour to get there then you build a thousand ten story buildings instead of one ten thousand story building. If people like higher floors because they have a better view then you build two hundred 50 story buildings instead of a thousand ten story buildings. You can build more of whatever the market demands, so the price falls to the construction cost (absent zoning), and remains there because increased demand causes more construction rather than higher prices.
To get to the point of true scarcity due to land you would have to need thousand story buildings because covering the city in twenty story buildings wouldn't be enough housing for its population. But even if that's possible in theory, it's not the case anywhere in practice.
Yes, and the areas that are desirable and the ones that are restricting the construction. Even if we suppose that you allow infinite construction, there will always be certain houses or parcels of land that will cost more, perhaps because of being closer to certain things.
Your example ignores reality. It is sometimes just not possible to build more housing that shares the exact same properties of existing houses.
If an area is desirable because of nature, then naturally those who first live there will prevent the destruction of said nature that brought them there to begin with.
In Tokyo, you can work part time as a non-union, non-salaried janitor or a nail stylist and make enough to live within 20 minutes of the bustling heart of downtown. That's due to light zoning restrictions making housing into a depreciating asset for everybody instead of a stupid fucking pyramid scheme
https://www.worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-e...
It's a corrupt, poorly regulated market that suits the construction industry and produces - on the whole - ugly, poorly insulated and tiny living spaces, surrounded by concrete (again, the amount of concrete used seems to be driven by corruption) that leads to overpriced land and buildings that depreciate so much that they are destroyed within one or two generations.
A quick search of this site alone will bring you reams of complaints about Japanese housing and plenty of good reasons why it should not be held up as an exemplar.
In which case those parcels of land would end up with high density housing on them so more people can live near those things, until such time as the cost per square foot falls below the construction cost.
> If an area is desirable because of nature, then naturally those who first live there will prevent the destruction of said nature that brought them there to begin with.
"Nature" e.g. Montana or Alaska or the Ozarks. Do you believe these to be the places with high land costs and restrictive zoning laws?
Why would this happen? You're talking about the construction of more housing like it's free.
Perfect example of this is something like Chicago - let's say you live right near the loop and are fortunate enough to have a SFH that's huge. The land is worth a lot, and you like your lifestyle. Sure in some perfect world that house would be purchased and turn into a high rise, but you want to live near the loop and have a SFH. Therefore that house will be expensive.
Others in similar situations will do the same. Later more people will come to Chicago and see that they want that lifestyle as well - these types of houses will then command a premium.
Not everyone will sell to a developer to turn it into a high-rise.
> "Nature" e.g. Montana or Alaska or the Ozarks. Do you believe these to be the places with high land costs and restrictive zoning laws?
Are those areas desirable? I've never been.
Not free. Less than the market price of existing real estate.
Suppose you have a 10,000 square foot building and it costs a million dollars to knock it down and build a 20,000 square foot building on the same lot. If doing this would cause the new building to be worth $500,000 more than the existing building (because local housing supply is high relative to demand), you're not going to do it, because you'd lose half a million. If doing this would cause the new building to be worth $1,500,000 more than the existing building (because local housing supply is low relative to demand), you are going to do this -- unless prohibited by zoning. Because you'd make half a million.
So when housing prices go up, you'd get more construction, until they go back down below the construction cost.
That doesn't cause housing prices to hit zero, but it establishes a long-term price ceiling, because any price above it makes new construction profitable, and increased supply lowers prices. So housing costs would converge on construction costs even if demand changes.
> Are those areas desirable? I've never been.
Those areas are beautiful, and the land is cheap and hardly anyone lives there because they're far from major cities. It's not proximity to nature that makes land expensive, it's proximity to jobs.
Housing would be "thought of" differently, if property depreciated. Has nothing to do with how people think, but optimal financial strategy. Is there a way to solve it without taxation? Deflating the currency moves the window, but it leaves the status quo trend.
You can argue about his conclusions, but you cannot argue with data. People today have no idea about the percentage of income that went into housing back then. It was really small!
In my corner of the nation (rural), fixer-uppers that no bank will give you a mortgage on are going for 150 kUSD and more! That's > 125 USD/ft^2! It's madness!
The building unit depreciates, but the total value usually goes up due to the land value, not the construction value. Cars would also appreciate hypothetically if metals suddenly became more expensive.
However, since lands are scarce and a collective effort to maintain, maybe it should be taxed for the benefit of the community and rewards given to the people who put it to the most valuable use, by not taxing buildings and other improvements built upon it.
That’s not entirely true. A home structure is worth what the materials + labor - depreciation are worth. A home can depreciate far more slowly that the cost of labor and materials rising. Not to mention that renovations will occur over time essentially removing some depreciation and adding to labor + materials to build a similar structure.
A well maintained home should hold its value well over time.
Totally. That's why that $50,000,000 house in NYC should eventually cost only $1.
That doesn't change the point this house cleaner was able to get creative and a bunch of property.
So the solution is to keep house renting but to get rid of landlords! It's really quite simple.
/sarcasm
Population growth alone would bring an expectation of rising housing costs.
Of course there is a reason, multiple ones.
Land, of course, but that's the easy one so let's ignore it for the sake of argument for a moment. Let's say land price remains constant.
Housing will still appreciate simply because everything related to it goes up. Contractor labor and supplies.
So to build a new identical house on an empty lot next to an older house will cost more than it cost to build that old house. But they houses are identical so they compete for the same buyer. So inevitably the old house value will go up to match the new house that cost more to build.
Young people need to go to shitty places that are cheap and then make the place better. Many young people want to live in SF or NYC. Go to Detroit instead.
Real estate development is very much a "build it and they will come" sort of deal. It takes capital, a lot of it, to make an area desirable. You can't just dump it anywhere, there has to be a good reason to dump it in this particular area otherwise the hip young people will go somewhere that did have a good reason. And the poor investors who poured money into a development in that area won't see any appreciation or significant profit, because no one else is developing the area, just them. Lots and lots and lots of money going into lots and lots and lots of developments, that's what turns the sticks into the burbs.
You just can't put the family cart before the development horse, every young person starting a family has different reasons for moving out to the sticks. Left alone without already-developed real estate, they'll just spread out evenly across rural America.
But hey, at least it'll be idyllic. Good luck keeping your kids around after they graduate high school.
I've had that experience in neighborhoods that did have the "advantages" of upfront planning and design. I don't think upfront planning and design is the panacea you are making it out to be.
You’d be surprised at how some of the most desirable neighborhoods in SF were once “crappy” only 20 years ago.
Generally by doing things that are now illegal (sometimes that were already illegal but not enforced at the time).
Like that was the time in my life where I was literally the most broke. I had a neighbor try to practically give me his home if I could just take over the mortgage. But I was fresh in school and staring down combined debts well into 5 digits, no assets save for my car and a bunch of tech junk, and no income.
I think there are some good things landlords bring to the table, like increased capital investments and stability of ownership for short duration stays. But I feel one would have to live under a rock to not recognize the fundamentally extractive nature of landlordism under our current conditions. Perhaps with something like a land value tax, some degree of market functioning could be restored. However, in the mean time with asset prices increasingly out of reach to everyday Americans, expect lots of hate for landlords as the American dream continues to evaporate.
It happened to lots of people who are successful today. I don't see why it won't happen tomorrow.
(To be clear: The business person doesn't change positions. It's jealousy on the part of the non-doers.)
It's pretty obvious that the cause of unaffordable housing is elsewhere. But being the one to actually collect rent is a kind of guilt-by-association.
Renting works fine if you have some basic regulations (which admittedly is the opposite of the case in the US).
The people my ancestors stole the land from, stole it from another indigenous tribe. Go back far enough and everyone is living on stolen land.
I assume by "incentives", you mean that they'd manipulate the law to limit other suppliers. I'm sure that happens, but as a landlord you don't have to do that. And being a landlord (who isn't manipulating the law) doesn't make the problem any worse.
Criticism should be directed at the real problems. Those are a mix of law and culture and just inertia.
There's an error in your analogy.
Nobody is growing carrots, they're buying carrots
Incentives push the carrotlords to pass local ordinances. 'Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome'
and the don't have to do anything illegal to restrict the housing supply - they can lobby, regulate, and vote
Regardless, the small landlord who buys a single family house and rents it out still puts a new house into the rental market, making it more affordable than it previously was on the purchase market. Along the way a landlord typically makes improvements and pays for maintenance, which improves the supply.
If you don't like laws then complain about the laws. The act of renting a house to someone else is not the problem.
Point of order: author is a female and a housekeeper ("maid")