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dovereconomics

63 karma · joined August 24, 2015

CS grad getting a PhD in econ
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dovereconomics··on Ask HN: What do you struggle with?
I lost 120lbs and for a long time I was in almost the same situation, but I can say I "fixed this problem".

I realized I didn't have a hormonal or even psychiatric issue: I was an addict.

Addicted to sugar, fat, salt in extreme quantities. I would always go from a bowl to a box of cereal.

So I quit it all. Cold turkey. It could "fit my macros", but I took no sugar, no junk food, no snacks.

Only food. Real food.

And I realized it's really hard to become fat on rice, chicken and vegetables. You"d need an insane appetite.

And, after some time, I slowly regained control.

I stopped counting calories, and now I'm happy to say I'm able to eat half a Snickers bar and not crave anything else.

And I'm fit! Happy eating, keeping a bit of muscle and a low body fat =)

dovereconomics··on Income inequality is not the problem, it's a symptom
Some decent points, but why can't anyone acknowledge the centralization of capital?

Sure, Uber lobbies city mayors, but what about the financial system that gives $6.6B to a single startup? The inception of all problems.

Politicians and lobbyists? I'd worry about the Fed.

dovereconomics··on Brazil declares emergency after 2,400 babies are born with brain damage
Until last week, there was a popular conspirancy linking these increasing cases of brain damage to vaccines.
dovereconomics··on The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)
Inflation-adjusted, $10000 in 1981 translates to $26109 in 2015.
dovereconomics··on Telegram gains 1M users after Whatsapp ban
I'm Brazilian (not a shaddy judge though) and this comment is baffling. It reminded me why I left it in the first place.

> No right is absolute, and that includes the right to privacy

Indeed true.

That's why you see Brazilian politicians embezzling billions of dollars and running away with it. At the same time, impoverished individuals are imprisoned for years after stealing a basket of eggs (literally).

No, it's not the same as in the U.S. Many innocent Americans are put in jail because they didn't know their rights. Impoverished Brazilians are not even given that choice.

The law isn't the same for everyone. If a Brazilian with a college education is arrested, he goes to a different, more pompous, prison "by law".

dovereconomics··on Stephen Hawking Says We Should Really Be Scared of Capitalism, Not Robots
Obviously, companies want less competition, but if they use a political system to do that, it's not free market capitalism.
dovereconomics··on Stephen Hawking Says We Should Really Be Scared of Capitalism, Not Robots
No.

TPP, huge inequality, centralization, unemployment ARE NOT a consequence of free market capitalism.

In such case, automation just doesn't outpace the labor market.

Now, when tech companies are partying with an artificial economy controlled by the government, they have more than enough money to that.

dovereconomics··on Why Public and Private Market Valuations Are Different
It's dangerous and biased to assume a company like Apple had its stock increased because of 'innovation' or 'disruption'.

A lot of it was a consequence of Fed's policies mainly with ZIRP and QE. From that angle, overvaluation of public companies is more likely than the latter.

And, if startups are 'less undervalued'~'more overvalued' than public companies, it only means they're more prone to volatility, busts and bloodbaths.

dovereconomics··on The New Bond Market: Bigger, Riskier and More Fragile Than Ever
Genuine capitalism doesn't have a government controlling money supply, which is behind your 'exponential growth'. Instead of growing an economy, the truest capitalist is focused on freeing an economy

If you wanna name the socialistic Keynesian experience 'Capitalism', that's your call. I can't do it.

dovereconomics··on The New Bond Market: Bigger, Riskier and More Fragile Than Ever
While investors look for gold and bonds as a response to falling equities, they're actually just trying to find 'safety'. That doesn't tell anything about which asset they'll necessarily choose.

Take the EM crisis we've been experiencing. Yes, everything going downhill, but many EM investors bought USD as a 'response'. If USD has problems, maybe certain commodities go up. It's hard to tell.

dovereconomics··on The New Bond Market: Bigger, Riskier and More Fragile Than Ever
You're confounding Capitalism with pure Keynesianism, which you'd probably revere.
dovereconomics··on The End of Retirement
Unfortunately, most people don't have minimalist lives.

With a 'humble' example:

$3000/month SF/NYC apartment,$1000/month on clothing(specially bankers), $1500/month on food(no time to cook, so $50/day), $2000/month on entertainment($500/week), $1500/ month on a decent car +gas. That's already ~110k a year. It's really easy to go beyond that.

dovereconomics··on The End of Retirement
To be honest, I believe the trend is to only become worse.

Every generation appears to become more hedonist and think less about retirement. Many of my friends(millennials) make six figures and barely save any money for retirement.

Carpe diem is failing on people.

dovereconomics··on How to be a VC without any Capital
> there will be plenty of angels or firms willing to cut a check or, at least, take a meeting.

What would keep them from ditching you and getting the deal without commission/bonus? 'Niceness'/'Decency' doesn't really work in this industry.

dovereconomics··on Bitcoin Is Officially a Commodity, According to U.S. Regulator
Some EM companies issue bonds in international markets not using their national currency
dovereconomics··on Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
Even if unrealizable business don't pay very much(close to doctors/lawyers), it still is a distortion in the market that wouldn't be possible in a free market.

Btw, big players are also dependent on a ZIRP, which goes beyond simply 'more credit'.

dovereconomics··on HP to cut 25-30k jobs
>government structures the economic regime to favor the interest

That's it. If there's central planning(no matter to whom) it's socialism. And, regarding 'lock-in advantages', without a government-backed credit expansion, it'd be really difficult for companies to get as much market cap.

dovereconomics··on HP to cut 25-30k jobs
Cronyism, referring to a system where incompetent agents are given special favors, doesn't survive in the free market - merciless competition destroys any underperfoming organization.

Cronyism only exists when competition doesn't work by means of a government. Get some politicians, create regulations, build a monopoly. No matter how uncompetitive it is, you're still a billionaire.

dovereconomics··on HP to cut 25-30k jobs
Not really.

Anyone with a background on classical economics realizes the U.S is much closer to socialism than capitalism. The existence of 'prices' and greed doesn't imply it's capitalism.

dovereconomics··on 14-Year-Old Boy Arrested for Bringing Homemade Clock to School
Honestly, more and more, I challenge the idea of ever having a child: bright and smart kids have never been so intimidated.

Many of the hacks I did as a child could have gotten me in jail today. Something 'silly' or 'funny' becomes dangerous/offensive/harassment; creativity, ingenuity and imagination are turned into dullness, self-hatred and nihilism.

dovereconomics··on HP to cut 25-30k jobs
But... ,in a libertarian country, HP wouldn't exist in the first place.

Crony capitalism still is not capitalism.

dovereconomics··on Why Is Europe Failing to Create More $1B Startups?
or they just didn't have as much 'help' from the government
dovereconomics··on Why Is Europe Failing to Create More $1B Startups?
Okay, everybody will hate me.

But, why are more unicorns a good thing? Yes, there are less VCs willing to throw money at 'SOCIAL APP n', but most startups will tend to have something more concrete.

Plus, assuming unicorns are 'natural forces of free market' is ignorance and hurts the economy in the long-term. These 'natural monopolies' use/abuse a financial system created by government. In a free market(no government intervention), they'd never be able to raise as much money and takeover as much market cap as they currently do.

Less monopolies is not a signal of a interventionist economy. Quite the opposite.

dovereconomics··on Gaps in Alumni Earnings Stand Out in Release of College Data
Not necessarily.

Many talented students can't afford or avoid debt in elite universities.

At the same time, less competitive students may get accepted because of donations/connections/preparatory schools.

dovereconomics··on Gaps in Alumni Earnings Stand Out in Release of College Data
Many have disagreed and furiously downvoted you(your text is quite aggressive), but you've raised a valid point.

Young adults waste their time and money often by blindly having faith in flawed system. They could've been more productive, in an individual and societal level, by having more pragmatic experiences.

Beyond programmers, a century ago, you could get started in finance by getting apprenticeships and moving your way up the ladder. You'd have real work experience and have a position only Ivy-MBAs currently do. In your lifetime, you'd been more productive and probably wealthier.

dovereconomics··on Gaps in Alumni Earnings Stand Out in Release of College Data
Beyond questionable gaps, like gender gaps, it's blatant we're living under a modern caste system.
dovereconomics··on Better and worse ways to spot a liar
Spotting petty liars is the least of one's problem. As normal people expose more information in the Internet, it becomes increasingly difficult to be a liar, almost impossible.

Still, the 'big lies' are just getting stronger and these techniques are useless on them. How many political identities can be dismantled by 'surprise'?

dovereconomics··on Who Will Suffer Most from Climate Change? (Hint: Not You)
Actually, they have children to support themselves.

Without mechanization, it becomes increasingly harder to support yourself without relatives to take care of you after you retire.

dovereconomics··on Who Will Suffer Most from Climate Change? (Hint: Not You)
>The world’s poorest farmers show up for work each day for the most part empty-handed. That’s why of all the people who will suffer from climate change, they are likely to suffer the most.

So, these poor farmers will demand low-cost solutions to manage these problems. Entrepreneurs would sense this(Bill already did) and start building these tools. It's just how capitalism works.

Unless, there's a crony global economy where corporations buy up government and hold illegitimate monopolies.

As consequence, they are unproductive and unable to keep up with innovation. The world doesn't get what it needs. Bill would also be a good example.

dovereconomics··on Maybe This Global Slowdown Is Different
I wouldn't be naive to try to point out reasons for such slowdown, but this response is somewhat dangerous.

The rhetoric of 'WE NEED MORE DEMAND' has hurt many countries and is probably one of the causes of this slowdown.

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