Why Is Europe Failing to Create More $1B Startups?
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1. You're comparing the unicorns which is like comparing the top of the pyramid without measuring the base. In other words, where are the figures for seed-round startups? What is the amount of capital available to startups at the different stages in the business life cycle? Without those numbers we can't really tell if this is a matter of investors in the EU being less efficient in their investments or if its simply a matter of scale.
2. The other mistake that people I think when making this comparison is in comparing the success of the US market compared to Europe as a whole. First of all, you have to keep in mind that much of the success in the tech sector is highly localized. Now obviously the definition of 'tech sector' can vary wildly but generally when we talk about The Tech Sector we mean Silicon Valley. Almost every other state not named California has tried to replicate Silicon Valley and met with the same lack of success you're speaking about here. The major two exceptions are New York and Texas in that order. The rest of the American States see the same kind of out migration of tech chasing money that the essay sees among foreign tech entrepreneurs.
3. Expanding on the above: on a national level we don't care if the tech sector concentrates in California or Texas or wherever as long as it is in the US. The EU might refer to itself as a union, but are the French willing to invest in a tech sector centralized in Romania for the benefit of a Europe as a whole? Not likely. Silicon Valley, as much as we celebrate the free market aspect of it's success, also benefited from massive federal government spending in that region that played a huge rule in establishing its tech ecosystem back in the 50s and 60s.
edit: I've been editing for grammar.
Hmmm... I'm not sure that's true. For some definition of "we", it would be tautologically true, I guess. Many states complain about paying more in taxes than they get back in spending. California, Texas, and New York all pay more in taxes than they get back in spending, though Delaware takes the biggest hit, per capita:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_taxation_and_spending_...
Is the sense of being 'European' so strong that member states are willing to spend billions of their own taxpayer euros to build up a tech sector largely centered in some other member state? I dont think so.
Something like Uber could never have come out of Europe. A large company that is breaking the law while competing with regulated taxis and remaining unregulated themselves? That would never fly in the EU, and Uber has met a lot more resistance there than the US. They're only able to address the EU market because they have a large, profitable base in the US.
In any measure, the regulatory culture in the US is much more laissez-faire than the EU. In the US, you can do whatever you want as long as it's not explicitly illegal. In the EU, you can do whatever you want, as long as you prove that it's not illegal first. It's a huge difference, and it's one of the biggest cultural differences between Europe and the US.
Uber is only able to address any market because they have a ton of outside venture funding.
Don't get me wrong - I agree that the EU is overly protective and that this harms their startup economy, but Uber is not a good example of that point.
Their answer was basically "Fuck 'em, we'll flood the market with cheap product, make consumers love it and the regulators will cave." That would not have worked in Europe if they hadn't already done it in a bunch of cities across the US.
no, not really. its only true specific contexts. which was the point of the previous comment. but you're right in the second part, that's sort of a confidence game...success begets success.
The thing Uber has which I think it would only get in Silicon Valley is about $8bn of funding. The biggest UK company I think is Hailo which raised about $100m. It'll be interesting to see how they do in China where the competitors have raised similar vc - Kuaidi raised $950 and I think Uber are spending a billion or so in China.
This is a feature, not a bug.
We do tend to regulate some areas more in Europe than the US, but from various on-line discussions about Uber in recent months, I have come to the conclusion that the original problem they are trying to solve is much worse in the US than the EU.
Meanwhile, I have no problem with requiring any service competing with regular taxis to be held to the same standards in terms of vehicle maintenance, insurance, checks on drivers, standardised metered pricing so passengers know what to expect, etc. Being able to beat the incumbent because you broke the law and took shortcuts that could affect safety is not impressive.
Also, I don't know where you got the idea that in the EU you need to prove what you're doing is not harmful or illegal before you can do it, but you're completely wrong.
I actually don't disagree with you; but my original point is that the US actively prioritizes giving companies space to operate without government intervention over protecting the rights of its citizens.
It generally makes the US a worse place to live, but a better place to start a business.
> Also, I don't know where you got the idea that in the EU you need to prove what you're doing is not harmful or illegal before you can do it, but you're completely wrong.
Maybe poorly worded, but in the US the prevailing attitude is that it's better to ask for forgiveness than for permission. Because our government is generally underfunded (domestically anyway), it doesn't usually go out looking for problems anyway. So you can often get away with disregarding regulations as long as you don't make too much noise while doing it. And even if you get caught, you hire lawyers to negotiate the penalty down to 10% of what it would normally have been.
And there are the non tariff barriers look how hard it is to import eu cars
You didn't mention which cities you've experienced in the EU, and in any case I've no reason to doubt your experience, but all I can say is that some places with traditional/regulated taxis don't seem to have the same problems. I'm in the UK and I can't remember the last time I had trouble getting a taxi at quite short notice even at a busy time of day, booking in advance is pretty much 100% reliable around here these days, and I've never heard of someone finding they can't get a cab in their area (unless you mean somewhere rural where there isn't a local taxi firm, I suppose).
Edit: in NYC & Orlando I have the same experience by the way; unfriendly cab drivers, no seat belts, crap cars and generally more expensive. But I guess that's not well regulated?
Is there a reason why a black cab driver in London, Manchester or Edinburgh couldn't register as an Uber driver and play for both teams?
Be careful about what you're saying here. Conformance to regulations is not at all the same as safety. My (anecdotal) experience is that Uber drivers are consistently better in anything that could be considered related to safetey - namely having functional seatbelts and paying attention to the road.
I meant what I wrote.
Regulated taxis and private hire vehicles here in the UK are typically required to be serviced and tested much more often than regular cars, for example. Something like not having a functional seatbelt would mean an immediate failure at a test.
All such vehicles and their drivers are also required to display identification, so anyone who is not happy with the state of a vehicle can also report it themselves to the local licensing authority or even the police.
That feels wrong. Maybe it's just a distorted picture I get from outside the US.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3171665
http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2011/08/03/the-inexplic...
That said "In the US, you can do whatever you want as long as it's not explicitly illegal" is somewhat hyperbolic. Certainly there are things like zoning regulations and other laws that limit what you can do with your property, for example. However, I do think that there is a greater presumption of being able to do and say things in the US so long as they aren't specifically prohibited in some way. (Obviously private parties have the ability to govern a lot of behaviors on their own property.)
So, not like Uber at all and not something that takes on the heavily regulated taxi industry.
Even if it were so owned, its entire history looks like a startup (lots of financing rounds, building out the product, about having to raise capital), so even if there was a buyout, it overcame whatever regulatory hurdles should have prevented this kind of thing in France.
Where are you getting this information?
[1] http://bfmbusiness.bfmtv.com/entreprise/la-sncf-investit-28-...
This is bad for big business, good for citizens. As a citizen I hope it stays this way. Regulation is our friend and it's the reason so many in the EU are against TTIP.
A race to the bottom of common regulation on either side of the Atlantic is something that will only be harmful to the average EU populace.
Suddenly we'd have growth hormone in our meat and shit like this;
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/22/eu-droppe...
Does this have anything to do with the fact that many many companies are incorporated in Delaware but don't do much business there? It seems possible that the federal taxes paid by such companies are counted as being "from Delaware" even though they mostly aren't, really.
Umm. Boston(MA)?
Texas has a warm climate, cheap housing and low taxes, which draws a lot of startups there. Raising money can be a problem, but you also don't need nearly as much - a good engineer in SV costs $250k; the same engineer in Austin costs $110k, and it's entirely possible to live on $10k a year while bootstrapping a startup. There are also a half dozen internationally-recognized engineering schools within 2 hours of I-35.
New York just has a ton of people and a ton of money. Also, the global media machine is based there as well, which is why you see a lot of media and advertising startups coming out of NYC. NYC is also attractive to people who weren't born there.
It ranked above New York for total VC dollars raised in 2014, to go with its 371 deals, versus New York's 395.
It's basically third in deal activity nationally. It's four times larger than Seattle, and perhaps ten times larger than Pittsburgh when you account for deals + money.
http://nvca.org/pressreleases/u-s-venture-capital-investment...
Also, the whole argument that it's harder to raise money if you are in [insert any place except Silicon Valley] is suspect. My company raised money from investors in Boston, SV, and overseas, as investors were most concerned with our business, not where we were located.
As long as you can hire good talent and have a solid business, you won't have trouble raising money as long as you can jump on a plane. The issue is when you are chasing dollars for a failing business, or have no revenue.
Amusingly, the only American software engineer I know who is certifiably taking more than 500k USD a year in base (i.e. cash, pre-bonus) salary lives and works in Boston.
Boston is one of the hot spots. It's actually really easy to recruit talent as there are a ton of students, it's an interesting, old city, it actually has mass transit, and not everybody is bothered by cold (some people even like it).
San Diego is way better than Austin (just look at the jobs postings and employer numbers), and some people would regard San Diego as second tier. Admittedly, they both probably qualify as the top of the second tier.
Google only pulled up this recent article: http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/blog/techflash/2015/09/sor...
Are there unicorns coming out of Dallas and Houston, but not Austin? I find that hard to believe.
In many peoples minds, Silicon Valley sprung fully formed to it's current state sometime in the 70s, when that is far from the truth. And I don't mean that just in the tech sense, but also the VC & funding model sense.
Arthur Rock wasn't just some rich guy that dropped from the heavens when he invested in Apple - that money came from much, much earlier and was already following a specific way of investing.
Worthwhile reading :http://steveblank.com/category/secret-history-of-silicon-val...
People seem to forget that Europe is not a country. Europe does not have a single uniting language. What happens, is that every country starts their own smaller versions and they stay mostly within that country. If they want to move to another country, there's often already a major player there, and they might not have the means to kick them out.
I think the reason that silicon valley is so powerful, is that the initial market is 325 million people who all speak the same language. Once you get the US market, you have the size, name and means to easily start conquering European countries. It's always about scale...
I've managed to read it and I see you did mention it. You other points do add some interesting ideas that I haven't considered before. Especially #3 is interesting.
successful examples that started in europe soon moved to the us to take off. qliktech/qlikview as a swedish example. intercom being spread across ireland and SF. etc.
the one market that could rival the US will be china. it is harmful to non-chinese investors though, but once they open it up a huge, homogenic market will pop up. wechat, baidu, alibaba already show what is possible there. apple and uber coming in with mature(rer) businesses. wonder when we'll see a mixed-background startup emerge in china.
as someone from austria that moved to the bay area - you must be bonkers to try ramping up a startup in most of europe. if your desire/plan is unicorn-scale of course.
I don't mean to sound like I'm minimizing the language issue, but it is surmountable.
To contradict my devil's advocate question above:
My guess and observation is that the ROI on certain localizations isn't good enough to justify the work needed to make a pan-European go at something. So people pick markets where the ROI will be good: England, Germany, France....maybe Italy, and then it all stops there. Neighboring countries with high ROI demographics usually have speakers of those major languages as a second language and can get by well enough with those offerings. And nobody really targets minor dialects for big offerings.
Also, by the time you've gotten enough traction in your country, there's a me-too (or a dozen) in your other markets.
Look, you're a start up, you're running lean, you're cranking out a MVP - are you really going to invest an extra 40% into trying to get into 3 other markets before you're able to get your head above water?
Currently I have a business where I import used computer and network components from US and sell them in the Norwegian market. (I can import pallets of equipment for less than what the total cost is for local shipping in Norway).
While I do make some money on it, the market in Norway is so small that its just a few sales every week. But it's fun, and I'm learning a lot so I still think its worth it.
I would love to sell to the rest of Europe, but I can't solve the logistic problem of transportation of heavy packages. It's hard enough inside Norway.
Doing business in Europe is hard, you have currency issues, language issues, culture differences and then you have all the bureaucracy. All the paperwork, for every minor detail.. :(
Germany has here the advantage of a low valued currency, extremely well done infrastructure, good interconnection, and easy access to other markets. Same with BeNeLux, France and Italy. In some regards, even Spain.
Imagine starting a Facebook in Germany versus the U.S. Spreading from state to state is easy because there is a large amount of media and social overlap. If you have a successful startup in California its much easier to spread to Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois than to spread from Germany to England, France, Italy, and Russia.
Having access to a similarly large initial market is also part of the reason China has a rapidly expanding and flourishing startup environment and culture.
I don't know if China would look the same if they allowed western companies to just swoop in to extend monopolies.
Most successful startups in post-2000 China are largely privately owned. While they are indeed subject to regulatory constraints, needing to work together with the government is largely a constraint to survive, not a reason for success. Their successes have very little to do with the government and much more to do with the market, rising economy, and better infrastructure (e.g. education, venture capital, incubators, startup "hotspot" cities, etc.) for startups to build upon, as well as the sudden explosion of a middle class that can afford the various things these new startups are offering.
I'd say a large part can be attributed to the fact that China and USA both have similar market sizes and both countries are each reasonably homogeneous in culture compared to, say, Europe.
And that you have little hope with Chinese law before a Chinese judge and a favored Chinese company. It is a hostile atmosphere to even Chinese-speaking countries -- if you are not connected to the government.
I'm saying it's very hard to discuss market forces from "free" market principles when the most successful companies in China shall be deeply connected to government. You wouldn't say Gazprom is a product of the Russian economic environment. Nor is Alibaba and Baidu.
My point is completely orthogonal; I'm simply saying that regardless of how business is done in either USA or China, each has its own massive market testing ground that speaks a single language, each has its own reasonably homogeneous culture and each has its own reasonably homogeneous set of consumer problems.
This is very different from, say, Italy and Sweden which are different on so many cultural levels. I'm simply supporting the point that Europe should not be treated as one market.
I think that protectionism disallows existing giants from carving up large slices of a market. Having to compete against the tactics of big giants is a capricious barrier to market, and probably not a good nurturer of innovation.
Had many countries severely gimped or barred Google / Microsoft from entering their country, while funding internal alternatives, the world might look very different.
Pardon the question, but I have read that organized crime is making a strong resurgence in Italy. Does this factor into your startup or affect it in any way?
I'm not sure why you think this is bullshit. Most startups fail. It seems like good sense to be wary of taking a dependency on another business that might not be around in the near future instead of an alternative that has already proven itself in the market.
Or become a IBM /HP/MS technology partner and sell through them.
Goodluck !
That's a completely valid reason to not take your business, and it's a problem that US startups face just as much. Personally I don't touch products from startups with a ten foot pole unless the benefit is overwhelmingly massive (very rare) or it's designed as a one time purchase with little necessary long term support.
If you're selling to businesses then longevity is going to be a top concern no matter where you go. Whatever benefit they get over your mainstream competitor is likely not worth it compared to the risk of incurring the cost of switching technologies twice in a short amount of time.
A small startup has no momentum and little power.
The smallest obstacle can block progress.
Having to file endless forms and being unable to take on staff due to restrictive hiring regulations can stop a small company dead, unless they cheat at the regulations.
Most people don't understand that, and just say 'why can't they just submit the forms?'.
Sure, some companies have enough momentum and funding they roll right over those things. Those were always going to succeed.
What people don't see is all the promising ideas that stop dead at little blockages, and either die or go elsewhere. Maybe 1/10th of startups are destined for success, no matter what. Maybe 8/10ths are destined for failure, no matter what. The remaining 1/10th is a fragile new thing, and needs help to get rolling. Killing that 1/10th through bad regulation is enough.
Many people talk about the SV advantage being the networks of people and the can-do attitude towards building things. Just that little bit more fertile ground for startups has a big flow-on effect.
I'd also like to say that the cost of earning money is higher here. €10k takes one year to save for a very good employee. There are so many taxes when you earn something... I've once calculated that adding 10€ in my LTD sales provides me 3.20€ for personal spendings. So it's just much harder to reach a Unicorn valuation when it takes that much to gather money.
In short, US is unified market with one language, laws for business are same across all states, one currency, one culture, low taxes, no social system and a lot of money.
In EU you have 28 countries, 24 languages which equals to same amount of cultures. 11 currencies. Every country got own laws so once you make business across many countries, you have taxation and law hell. EU tries to improve it so it is getting better but it is still very bad. You basically need a lawyer and a translator for every country where you operate. We have quite big taxes, social system and health system. All these needs to be payed for every employee and it increases the operation cost.
The country that I am from, we had better search engine than Google before Google, we had Uber before Uber and many other. Unfortunately they didn't expand because of problems I mentioned and nobody gave investment that would overcome all these problems. At the end when big name comes to our market they just buy established local competitor and rename it.
Also Silicon Valley is a bubble. In Europe we never heard about most of startups from there and we have local competitors that are established here and do basically same things.
Whats changed thats holding Europe back?
> Companies are ranked by total revenues for their respective fiscal years. Included in the survey are companies that are incorporated in the U.S. and operate in the U.S. and file financial statements with a government agency. This includes private companies and cooperatives that file a 10-K or a comparable financial statement with a government agency, and mutual insurance companies that file with state regulators. It also includes companies that file with a government agency but are owned by private companies, domestic or foreign, that do not file such financial statements. Excluded are private companies not filing with a government agency; companies incorporated outside the U.S.; and U.S. companies consolidated by other companies, domestic or foreign, that file with a government agency. Also excluded are companies that failed to report full financial statements for at least three quarters of the current fiscal year. Percent change calculations for revenue, net income, and earnings per share are based on data as originally reported. They are not restated for mergers, acquisitions, or accounting changes. The only changes to the prior years' data are for significant restatement due to reporting errors that require a company to file an amended 10-K.
But there is more factors in it, Europe used be more rich (it had a lot of colonies), US wasn't so developed as it is now. GDP of US was lower than GDP of UK in 1900. And of course laws changed, we have more bureaucracy than we used to have.
Thats almost the same as in the US(excluding employment).
The issue of low taxes is frankly utter bollocks, yes the US's taxes might be lower but so is your life expectancy, and productivity.
The main issue with startups is that most of europe is based on trade. What can I sell to you for a profit, what can I invest in that will give a decent return with a balanced risk?
Most tech startups fail. Most tech startups are clones of another well established startup. Those startups do not make money.
Why would I invest in something with such a terrible likleyhood of return?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PP...
We're Number 3 !!!!
Life expectancy appears to be about what is the European Union. U.S. is 79 years ( source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expe... ) ( Euro stats: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_in_Eu... )
Europe doesn't have import taxes? what?
Did you fact check any of your statements?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currencies_of_the_European_Uni...
When companies get funding of millions without actually having anything, then it’s a bubble that will burst.
Alabama's GDP per capita, is higher than Italy.
US economic growth is routinely far beyond that of Europe. UK, Germany, France, Finland, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy, Russia, Austria, Poland - haven't net grown their economies since 2007.
US unemployment is almost half that of the EU (and is half that of the Eurozone).
Life expectancy is on par with the EU, and is higher than Europe as a whole. Russia - by far Europe's biggest country - only has a life expectancy of 70 years.
You would invest into start-ups, because the few that succeed produce vast returns, and even among the failures the ecosystem as a whole produces massive knock-on benefits that spur innovation and overall economic growth.
Poland grown 47% in GDP PPP between 2007 to 2015. Much more than USA (14%).
ps. I hate the word 'unicorn'.
With regards to lack of investors I don't think it's as simple as that. If it was only a matter of investments then surely US investors or Asian investors could just come in with the money. There is something that makes European VCs risk averse and keep american investors out of Europe IMO.
> I hate the word unicorn too, but it's shorter than private market companies with a valuation of more than $1 billion :)
Ah, is 1 billion the limit for the 'unicorn' definition? In what amount of time? :-) We have 7-year old companies, with 50+ employees posing around as startups everywhere these days. It's not related, but you know... Everyone is playing with words here :-P
> With regards to lack of investors I don't think it's as simple as that.
Of course you don't, otherwise you wouldn't have written a blog post... You could tweet! But, unfortunately, as most social phenomena is not that complex :-)
The reason we can't have a "unicorn" in Europe is that no one is going to support a company that it's expenses outsize it's turn-over even if this is because of extremely high growth rate.
If you're lucky enough, you might land some millions from some startup event. But even they, ask to see growth (in terms of users) and (hehe) immediate ROI.
In startup Istanbul 2014 the no1 startup which received investment was the only company who didn't actually need it... It was already generating way more than it could burn. So it was a very easy bet.
Small-cap companies is shorter than that too and it actually means something. Don't give excuses for using stupid terminology.
It's an annoying term, but it works (unfortunately)
One of the differences is European investors tend to think on the basis that if it walks like a horse, neighs like a horse and only actually does the same job as a horse ....
You're both right.
Apparently US investors don't even like going out of Silicon Valley, why would they go all the way to Europe?
Or investors in Europe have enough opportunities to generate more than the typical return on investment of VC? The average VC ROI is really low, it gets outperformed even by passive index funds IIRC.
Edit: Found the source.
"Yet 2013 annual industry performance data from Cambridge Associates shows that venture capital continues to underperform the S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000."
https://hbr.org/2014/08/venture-capitalists-get-paid-well-to...
The top companies only want to go with the top investors and vice versa. I wish they'd publish data. I'd love to see Benchmarks ROI on their recent fund, it's likely going to be the best performing fund of all time.
1. In my experience, Europeans are less dominated by the "newer is better" desire to constantly get the latest gadget/technology. I wonder if others agree.
2. European money appears to be more dominated by old money / aristocracy and that these people like to invest within that network. Engineers are less likely to be part of the aristocracy and are treated more like commodities than the enabling superstar athletes they are (at least the kind that make unicorns). I know quite a few engineers that make over $200k in SV but only one who makes over 100k GBP.
I have no idea how American start ups can get away with demanding users live on the bleeding edge but apparently cultures can be very different.
Most of the startups have private customers, not corporate!
> 2. European money appears to be more dominated by old money / aristocracy and that these people like to invest within that network. Engineers are less likely to be part of the aristocracy and are treated more like commodities than the enabling superstar athletes they are (at least the kind that make unicorns). I know quite a few engineers that make over $200k in SV but only one who makes over 100k GBP.
At least here in the Netherlands that seems to be pretty common. Generally, investors are more conservative, and rarely take major risk. Salaries are also just slightly above working for a consultancy, but not always.
Good luck founding GitHub in 2008 Germany.
I don't believe for a second that someone signing away their rights is necessary for company survival. Maybe you as a company leader need to do a better job so you don't come to that point, and if you have, then maybe you aren't fit to run a company.
You mean the € 25k required to found a German LLC (GmbH)? As of a few years ago it's possible to found one with a single euro as long as you use a certain fixed percentage of the profits to built the company's capital (the company remains "UG (haftungsbeschränkt)" until you accumulate the € 25k, then you can transform it into a "proper" GmbH).
The paperwork involved (including notary and lawyer/accountant fees) still mean you should have about € 2k disposable before you incorporate, though -- not to mention the ~ € 500 you may accidentally pay scammers if you're not careful.
That said, Facebook and similar startups couldn't have started in Germany simply because of German privacy laws. At least once a week I hear of a new US product or start up that simply wouldn't pass basic privacy checks in Germany.
But, why are more unicorns a good thing? Yes, there are less VCs willing to throw money at 'SOCIAL APP n', but most startups will tend to have something more concrete.
Plus, assuming unicorns are 'natural forces of free market' is ignorance and hurts the economy in the long-term. These 'natural monopolies' use/abuse a financial system created by government. In a free market(no government intervention), they'd never be able to raise as much money and takeover as much market cap as they currently do.
Less monopolies is not a signal of a interventionist economy. Quite the opposite.
I can think of a lot of successful European startups -- Minecraft, Spotify, Skype, DeepMind, the list goes on... -- and just as many startups led by Europeans that have succeeded in America (Lending Club, etc.).
But if Europe has trouble supporting "unicorns", there are probably a couple reasons: 1) Gaps in the funding ladder. 2) Talent flight. 3) A preference for regulation. 4) Countries, like France, that combine technological conservativism with social rigidity.
Combining that with the violence-filled reaction to Uber, the hysterical response to AirBnB and the obsession with physical paper and it's no wonder that France is a horrible startup environment. Also, let's not forget the billion+ dollar exit for Daily Motion that was blocked by the French government. If if you were to build a unicorn you wouldn't be able to do anything with it except maybe cut it up and cook it in a sous vide: provided it wasn't imported from Spain or Poland in which case the farmers would drive tractors into Paris and set piles of shit on fire in protest.
I am not making a judgement on is European Socialism a good thing or not; I am merely stating reasons that it is difficult to expect high returns in such an environment.
Complaining about bureaucracy sounds like a more believable theory considering that the Swedish one is pretty streamlined all things considered, but that is a totally separate issue than the sheer amount of taxes paid.
I died.
It's quite weird that Europe can be considered a bad place to succeed. Slovenia is a cheaper country than US, talent pool is still large enough, a startup in European countries like Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia and similar can last way longer and employ more people for the same millions that US startups burn through incredibly fast. Not to mention the expensive standards of living in silicon valley.
In that scenario, the startups who become successful (and who originated elsewhere) all get counted as U.S. successes. This would vastly undercount both the total number of startups elsewhere as well as the number of successful startups.
The question that still stands is why they are moving the the US.
Investors are looking to fund companies with global reach that will break down communication barriers, render national boundaries meaningless and bring us all close together. . . as long as they are located in California.
This is what I am trying to explore.
Silicon Valley being the pre-eminent location for start-ups is a positive feedback loop which puts it at the extreme tip of the power distribution.
I both mention that there are European startups and that there are popular european startup founders in the US.
Not sure how much more clear I could make it.
Are: eBay, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Uber, Priceline, Expedia, SpaceX, Tesla, PayPal, FirstSolar, GoPro, Salesforce, Workday, FireEye, Splunk, Netflix, Yahoo, Twitter, DropBox, Palantir, Pandora, etc. good for the US?
They were all the equivalent of small unicorns once. So the question is: as opposed to what? All of those companies existing somewhere else, and most of the benefits going to other nations instead (jobs, taxes, investment, innovation)?
1. Almost no investors who have built a tech-company before
2. Investors are very risk averse and want business models that monetize from day 1, because that's what a business is and those are good German values. This way, there is a strong incentivization by investors of e-commerce businesses and strong disincentivization of startups that want to build a great product first and focusing on scale.
3. In the same vein, investors simply don't know the idea of growing first and delaying monetization, which is what made the majority of "unicorns" possible. This is because there are no German examples for that, so they could not experience it themselves and German investors don't know or don't care about what happens in the U.S.
4. Fundraising takes double the amount of time here at half the valuation. I have seen 3 companies of close friends shut down after having raised Series A, because of exactly this.
5. Because of all that, there is little courage or idealism of the generation of first-time German entrepreneurs left. We have enough talent, there is just not the mindset baked into our ecosystem what makes the U.S. so successful. That's why most founders have to revert to building copycat e-commerce shop, but very few of the founders (maybe 3% of those that I have met) have the goal and the idealism to build something new that can really improve our world.
However, that's why there is a big opportunity to take the market of early stage seed investments that is focused on high risk bets only. If you want to do it really well, you announce that e-commerce ideas are not allowed.
Something that may contribute is that life is fairly predictable in Europe, and by many accounts prosperous. This may sedate the entrepreneurial spirit.
Selling your labor to make a living is an entirely respectable choice. A comfortable life all the way to the end is more or less guaranteed. Labor protections are much more generous as well. In the US, starting a company is partly an attempt to escape wage slavery and toxic work environments. Somewhat exaggerated perhaps, but in the USA, the entrepreneur is celebrated while the salaried employee is pitied. (Unless when it's election season and all suitors crow about jerbs, jerbs, jerbs).
There is also an enormously amount of stored wealth in the existing infrastructure and built environment, much of it owned by families or collectively, and people enjoy continued long term robust family relations and social support structures nearby, cradle to grave. Generations of prosperity and fairly modest lifestyles see to that. This is lost to many Americans, when comparing snapshot measures like average yearly income or per capita GDP. But wealth - the measurable money kind and immeasurable chicken-soup-for-the-soul-kind is accumulated over time and regions like Flanders are positively rich with both. America - somewhat a cliche - MUST be sustained by growth, because the recurring costs of the necessities are so high. The built environment in America is basically a gigantic liability, only supported by a promise of future revenue. And the constant geographical movement of labor breaks apart families and existing support structures, constantly in need to be reconstructed. In this context, the promise of a fat payout after an IPO is a soothing balm.
Mathematically, say one network with size 100 has opportunity of 10,000. Ten networks of 10 have opportunity of 100 each - totaling a far lower 1,000.
Note how several of the top "unicorns" are from China (Xiaomi, Lufax, Didi Kuaidi, DJI, Zhong An, Dianping) or India (Flipkart, Snapdeal) - other countries with (mostly) unified languages (formally, if not in practice) and vast middle class populations (due to their overall gigantic populations). Other unicorns outside of big territories are Atlassian and Spotify - but they're valued so highly because they work in the US market almost as if they were US companies.
Historically the EU used to be much more divided which is exactly why the harmonization process seems to have such a paradoxial result.
If biotech or robotics ever take off in a huge bubbly way, I imagine we'll see a much larger of Europe unicorns coming to the table as those areas play to European strengths again.
But I think you are right on the money about regulation. For better and for worse, the regulatory framework is far more liberal in the US compared to Europe. Even though Indian regulations are much worse than Europe and often more draconian, the Indian unicorns have flourished in niches where regulation doesn't matter or are more rational because they came about more recently.
A small management team at the top of the org chart above the workers just has to be able to communicate with the parent company and "program" the organization below in their native language, to produce the required results.
Because these companies are all based around companies communicating with customers, which can be localized and has no real network effect.
Many current "unicorns" are social companies or companies with inbuilt network effects where customer-to-customer communication or cultural familiarity is important.
Stopped reading after this line. So to this guy, a market is a geographic definition. Well, we're not in the 19th century anymore. We're not defined by hills and roads and river access.
IT startups identify markets from culture and language first and foremost. And you obviously won't market a product the same way in germany, france, or greece. It's the biggest issue with euro so far: same currency, 25 different cultures.
To make such a fundamental mistake in an analysis, one has to have never had even one single business relation with two different european countries.
There is now a mini-GmbH, essentially a type of Ltd. that can only handle a limited (pun not intended) amount of assets, but does not require you to have enough assets to pay back the debts.
Then there are GbR, etc, a lot of nice incorporation types, but these, while effective for a normal company, are not useful for a silicon-valley type of company, as the silicon valley relies on an investment bubble - and a GbR and similar place the liability completely with the owners of the company.
Then there are consumer cooperatives and so on, but while these, again, are useful for the normal economy, you can’t use them to make profit by scamming people (as they are effectively profit-less).
If you don't want to be a cynic: German law is optimized for protecting the public from investment scams---which makes it hard for startups that aren't investment scams but become victims of false positive identification by german law as possible investment scams.
London is the centre of finance in Europe. It utterly dominates.
Why would I invest a lot of money in a company that for it to succeed will have to burn through anywhere between $10-$250 million, before they even think about breaking even?
even as a seed fund, the rate of attrition is genuinely terrible. The only way unicorn can survive is to bend reality long enough so that people are willing to gamble on the pyramid scheme that is behind all non profit making pre-IPO startups.
Think about it. Uber is only in the position it is because it keeps on taking funding. That funding is used to
A) expand at a massive loss
B) Inflate the current valuation
C) pay off previous investors.
If uber were for what ever reason not able to raise any more capital, they would literally collapse over night. They are unable to make a profit without making massive structural changes, changes not scheduled for years. Yes they have cash reserves, but they'll be convertible if some investors need them. More importantly, if an investor decides to sell for a lowerprice, the only thing that makes Uber Uber, its valuation will disappear.
Let me be very clear, There is nothing special about uber. Unlike netflix, amazon, or facebook which either have unique content, or many thousands of hours of personal content, Uber is just a service which can be swapped out at will. It is just a taxi service, one that is cheap because its being subsidised by not paying health care, and the many investors.
It is the very embodyment of the south sea bubble.
They charge 10% of all taxi rides with a marginal cost of maintaining some server software and a mobile app. No cars, no human dispatchers, no medallions, no nothing. It's a great business.
Because programmers and other IT professionals are paid laughably low wages and shown even less respect than they are in the US. It's a similar situation in Japan and Australia. Yet whenever politicians talk about the need for startups to compete with Silicon Valley, you never hear them say a word about the insultingly low wages that are the norm in Germany, France, UK, Belgium, and others.
Want to create a Silicon Valley of Europe? Then pay Silicon Valley wages, you cheap bastards!
The Irrlicht guy wrote about this:
Silicon Valley is dense with natural acquirers. China has a market for exits. Other aspiring startups hubs around the world just do not. I realized this from spending time in Tokyo and Singapore. People commonly think "everything would be different if we just had a few more VCs", or some such. But really, it's not complicated. Investors want exits, and when they dream, they dream of big exits. They're not in the business to lend a helping hand, or reward the deserving.
Mirror: https://archive.is/qBEfh
While inconvenient for the entrepreneur/investor/1%class most regulations exist for the common good of society. If a startup can prove that the regulation is outdated and doesn't make sense in the context of a new technology they should be able to convince the regulators that the regulation needs to be adjusted.
But given it's importance on many things after all I wanted to understand why Europe didn't have more than they do.
One current big example are the new VAT rules in the EU for non-physical products. They just do the opposite, what a free market should be. There are already companies that say on their website, that they will sell to their own countries people and happily even to people outside of the EU, but not to people living in other EU countries. The total opposite what the EU once should be. The new VAT rules also should limit the possibilities of big companies like Amazon to circumvent VAT. In reality it become a big stumble block for smaller companies.
The EU is a big market, with many, many rules. To many rules and to few thoughts on the effects particularly for smaller companies. (instead, the big corporations are effectively writing the rules)
When smaller companies do not get the chance to come up (what is happening) than the chances for Unicorns are also greatly limited. Instead the same big players are winning again and again and are doing the same dinosaur stuff again and again.
If your client is a big company they can blackmail you to have a "VAT discount". If you want to do business with them, you'll need either to eat their VAT with a percentage of your expected benefits, or you are obliged to cheat to survive. You end figthing with your clients for paying the damned VAT. Always. With each one.
If you take in mind all the lost work hours, angry clients and nuissances that causes to everybody it is clear that is worthless and hurts the economy, but the problem is that VAT is like cocaine for the government. Is wonderful and they always want more. With VAT you can bill taxes to children and to elders for the privilege of buying something in your city but you are not obliged to provide them with a future pension, or any other service instead.
And like any other drug, you raise and raise the doses until finally all collapses. You want to raise VAT and bill 21% for a book or a film? Not problem, people can survive without going to cinema or buying a book. Now you have a 21% of 5 tickets, instead a 4% of 500 tickets and so.
But I wanted to make the point that the new VAT rules in the EU regarding non-physical goods that are sold over the internet (for example downloadable products or also any internet-services) are even more destroying, particularly for very small companies and startups.
So, without a good reason, they just destroy those companies, that are the future and whose counterparts in the US are so successful.
With such stupid regulations, they just kill innovation!
VAT is bad, but the new EU VAT rules are pure insanity.
(btw. did you know, that those rules also apply for US companies that want to sell in Europe? -- just with the difference, that US companies have a big enough market themselves -- something that EU companies don't, because the EU is destroying this market with over-regulation and stupidity)
If EU vs US VC funding is about 1:8, then the ratio correlates with the output of unicorns. If is even less, then that would imply EU actually may be outperforming the US in unicorn output per VC head. As it turns out, the EU numbers are booming this year, so it's tough to compare, but the numbers do seem to back this somewhat [0] [1].
--
[0] http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2015/04/27/european-vc-investme...
[1] https://www.cbinsights.com/research-venture-capital-q1-2015
> The third reason I hear is that the US market is bigger and therefore it’s easier to get traction.
> Yet there are 503 million Europeans living inside the EU vs. 319 million US living in the US.
That's a really dodgy reason to discount the "third reason".Britons are not to Belgians what New Yorkers are to Californians!
A better comparison would remove the confounding variable of valuation. Instead, it'd be interesting to look at start-ups in each region with >$200M in annual recognized revenue. Valuations fluctuate based on investor sentiment and market conditions. Revenue is more fundamental.
I really don't find the EU market to be bigger than the USA market. The US already has tech giants that no other country has (China is starting to have some). So if we are starting from here, the US market is much bigger since it's usually these big/giant companies that drive the VC/Startup market.
The tech industry in the US took the lead. Why? It's complicated to tell. Countries emerge from poverty to richness but there is little correlation how that happens. And if we know how it works, shouldn't we be all rich now?
Most of Europe was in ruins after 1940:s, whereas the USA emerged from the war mostly unscathed and with a freshly mobilized manufacturing industry.
>Many parts of the world now have the necessary ingredients to create start-ups. There are brilliant technical graduates everywhere. Venture capital has gone global.
>Why does Silicon Valley continue to produce a disproportionate share of industry-transforming companies like Google, Facebook and LinkedIn? Or the next generation of companies like Airbnb, Dropbox, and Uber? The answer, which has been hiding in plain sight, is Silicon Valley’s ability to support scale-ups.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/39001312-4836-11e5-af2f-4d6e0e5eda...
Second, is '# of $1B startups' even an important metric? Just like some employees prefer Europe for worker protections, smaller work weeks, paid maternity leave, healthcare unattached to employment status, etc, so some startups might find that their success has more to do with the markets they find themselves operating in and serving, rather than total income.
What part of "the full stack entrepreneurial ecosystem and access to funding" does London lack that New York has?
(Genuine question - I don't know NY well)
New York and SV have been accumulating talent, knowledge about the US in general, lobbyism, transfer of knowledge and so on. London have a lot of that but it's doesn't have enough to counter the power of the political system of the EU.
By number of 'unicorns':
69 Silicon Valley 16 New York City 10 London 9 Beijing 8 Boston
And over the short run the talent picture is a zero sum game - Europeans who moved to SF to start their company are potential founders Europe doesn't have any more.
Also, don't underestimate the draw of US universities. We get people from all over the world coming to the US for their graduate degrees and many of them stay.
I guess this is an argument for accepting remote work. There are lots of talented people in places where they like living. How (new) companies deal with this will determine how the talent pool is used. As everybody argues there's insufficient talent, by definition there's insufficient talent wherever you are.
Here in California, most employment is at will, meaning that either party can end the relationship immediately. I can quit without notice; I can be fired without notice. (In practice, notice is generally given, but that's custom, not a legal right. One can also write an employment contract with other terms.) But from what he said, it was very difficult to get rid of underperforming employees, and also hard to reduce staffing levels if the business needed fewer people.
[1]: http://minimaxir.com/2013/07/alma-mater-data/
[2]: http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/dec/01/cambridge-...
No, it's not just semantics. Look at the history of Siemens or any other of these old European companies. There's one aspect that is present all their history and that's government involvement. One could even say that their first venture capitalist that gave them a chance was the government. They all pretty much started out by getting contracts for building infrastructure or military hardware.
My point is that in the historical context most large companies made it big with or without government help both in the EU and in the US.
So whats changed and thats what I am trying to explore and one of my conclusions is that it might have to do with how Europe is implementing laws. Keep in mind that the EU still have many government supported companies so if thats all it takes then there might be more.
But it's a complex issue which is why I wrote it because I was hoping for discussion like these and points like yours to surface. So thanks.
>on a per-capita basis, Stockholm is the second most prolific tech hub globally, with 6.3 billion-dollar companies per million people compared to Silicon Valley with 6.9
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e3c15066-cd77-11e4-9144-00144feab7...
Because it requires Silicon Valley (the Everest region) and US-style financial institutions (free money) and bankruptcy protection laws.
Today, it's a lot better than it was, but in many places the powerful noblility have been replaced by other powerful interests and some industries still operate like they have the God-given right to supply automobile tires to the French people and all good men must express solidarity to expel these upstart invaders... :(
Over regulation is what the US does with taxis. Which is why in Germany companies that do essentially the same as Uber (but legal[1]) already existed before Uber was even founded.
What I see the "issue" is that as soon as some size is reached, we don't really care about expanding further. Why take a risk when you already have a pretty nice market?
[1] In Germany, where UberPop is currently banned, you can start a taxi company if your drivers are insured with commercial insurance. To make profit, your drivers need to have a 55€ license as taxi driver. Simple as that. UberPop is only banned because they did not want to insure the drivers (the license is less of an issue).
Do you have a source for this? Uber insures its UberX drivers in both Canada and the U.S. so I don't see why they would be opposed in Germany. There must be something else.
Uber does heavy demand-based price adjusting, and well, fuck that. Better have the assurance of always paying 20€ for my trip home, than the variability of an Uber with 10-50€.
You know when booking the trip what the cost is, it's not a mystery.
> the fare is regulated - no matter the demand, the area of the source or destination
Does Germany not have supply problems caused by this policy?
I know it's impossible to get a cab in Toronto on New Year's, whether you're coming home from a party or your wife is going into labour. I'd personally rather know for sure there is a ride available if I need it than be stranded by the side of the road because nobody is allowed to take my money.
Recent times: possibly Shopify, one other moved to USA
Most money in Canada is controlled by civil pension funds, who don't like smallish investments for big risks.
Thus a large percentage of software engineers move to USA, and are active in Silicon Valley.
Canada suffers from dutch disease; it's simply too easy and profitable to dig stuff up (oil, diamonds, gold, potash, etc.) instead of producing value through software or technology.
Here are some of the EU rules listed in an apparent attempt to show Europe has more onerous regulations than the U.S.:
>There are rules for the curve of the cucumber to the bendiness of bananas.
This hasn't been the case since 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/world/europe/12iht-food.4....
Also, according to the U.S. Congressional Research Service, "U.S. imports of some fresh fruits and vegetables also are subject to federal marketing orders that... create mandatory grade, size, quality and maturity requirements that apply to domestic and imported products." https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34468.pdf
Just to take one example, here is one document where the USDA regulates potatoes for their air cracks, bruises, dirt, enlarged lenticels, external discoloration, flea beetle injury, sunburn, and growth cracks, among many other things. http://www.mipotato.com/CMDocs/MPIC/usda%20grade%20standards...
>Recently large vacuum cleaners and incandescent light bulbs were banned.
The EU has not banned incandescent light bulbs but is phasing out many types of incandescents. As it happens, so is the U.S. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_incandescent_ligh... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Lighting_Energy_Policy#In... Here is a recent map of all the nations in the world phasing out such bulbs. Notice the U.S. and EU are listed at the same level of prohibition: http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/the-overly-dr...
>Recently the EU was looking into banning cinnamon used in cinnamon rolls because of a too high amount of coumarin, known to be causing liver damage if consumed too extensively.
Wildly incorrect, although there have been some misleading headlines so perhaps forgivable. What happened is that the Danish authorities ruled that a type of cinnamon swirl ("kanelsnegle") was not a specially exempt traditional or seasonal food. This meant it was subject to EU recommended daily limits on the ratio of coumarin per kg of dough. The Danish Food Administration had done a survey and found half of the nation's fine baked goods were probably over the line. Cue hysteria about the beloved rolls being banned (never mind that bakers could just cut back on coumarin, for example by changing quantity or type of cinnamon). Anyway what ended up happening is that the rolls were reclassified as a traditional national treat and thus exempt from the recommended limits.
http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2013/12/25/256602581/whe... http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/20/cinnamon-intake... http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/denmark-food.wo7
FWIW the FDA regulates how much yeast, citric acid, Sarsaparilla, Sassafras, tallow, green walnuts, unmodified starch, and vanilla can go into foods, among many other ingredients. (see http://www.fda.gov/Food/IngredientsPackagingLabeling/FoodAdd...)
It also carries a subtextual reminder of just how rare $1B startups are. No substitution does this.
It's just jargon with a useful subtext. There's absolutely no need whatsoever to cringe, and even less to censor the word from titles.
get a local conviction on your personal record and you're toast.
Try opening a company in, say, France. (This was a cruel joke. Please don't, for the sake of your sanity).
BTW I'm centrist on the issue of gun ownership & carrying but I just wanted to point out the flaw in your deduction.
Are you sure your arrow there means causation?
Explain like I'm five, why do you think the police feels it needs to compete with law-abiding gun-carrying citizens?
I've never heard of this silly idea before, but maybe I'm silly and you have a great argument for that.
If you had said "the more guns in criminals' hands, the more police militarization to preserve advantage" then I'd agree with you but I'd ask to see how you know the number of guns in criminals' hands.
0.001% of law-abiding gun holders are a problem for the police. 100% of criminals are a problem for the police, whether they're carrying guns, knives, or a closed fist.
Not sure what afsina's point is though.
No gubbermint funding and directing innovation then, no digital computer in your pocket now.
I don't think so. Most of the immigrants are uneducated people, with no willingnes of finding a job. They want to go to Germany because that's the country with highest benefits for unemployed. How would we benefit from THAT ?
Also, if this was really about finding safe haven from war, there are rich, muslim countries like Saudi Arabia or Turkey, which are much closer and would be much better place for them anyway, due to similar cultural background, but for some reason they prefer EU with it's social benefits.
You're not even consistent. First you portray refugees as lazy welfare hogs, now you say they are wealthy because they can afford the smuggling gangs. If they are so wealthy, what makes you think they only want to come to Europe to collect unemployment benefits?
Someone applying for asylum in Germany can be stuck in limbo for years before being rejected and deported. This happens fairly frequently. Throughout that waiting period they're not allowed to work and are stuck in refugee camps that are getting less and less hospitable as the number of refugees grows (simply because the communal governments asked to take care of them don't have any money and often only learn how many they have to accommodate when the buses arrive). Refugees don't have an easy time.
If you think all of the "Muslim world" is one big cozy community you haven't been paying attention. The "Muslim world" is about as united as Ireland during the Troubles. The civil war in Syria is fought between a totalitarian dictator and Islamic extremists. Saudi Arabia is an Islamic fundamentalist dictatorship. This is the last place you want to go if you don't agree with either side in the conflict. Yet Saudi Arabia has accepted thousands of Syrians into the country (although they don't treat them as refugees, which is what led to the claim that they don't take any Syrian refugees).
And Turkey? Tons of refugees are going to Turkey. And many of them have hopes of being able to return to their home country when the war is over. To quote Wikipedia: "As of April 2015, there are 2,138,999 estimated Syrian refugees in Turkey." -- that's an order of magnitude more than any EU country (and Turkey isn't that big of a country nor that wealthy).
Heck, many places outside of Europe have granted actual residency permits to Syrians. That means they're not even treating them as refugees but as perfectly ordinary legal immigrants -- a far cry from the temporary shelter and perpetual "Duldung" (i.e. promise not to get deported yet) they would get in Germany.
You're pretending the EU countries are the only places accepting Syrian refugees. That simply isn't true. The reasons we hear more about refugees coming to the EU than those being accepted in other places is simple:
1. Most of Europe shares a common border (Schengen), so "our borders" span more than just our own country.
2. There are a ton of countries in Europe, so each country accepting a lot of refugees adds up to a very big number.
3. We live in Europe (or in the US: you're closely related to Europe) so we pay more attention to what's going on here.
Stop listening to AfD/NPD/BNP bar-room clichés and pay attention to what's actually happening outside the Western World.
Some reading material:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/for-many-syrian-refugees-fleein...
http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/lebanon-struggles-to-shelt...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugees_of_the_Syrian_Civil_W...
Not all of us speak English.
For a splendid example, see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10220679.
The challenge is that still a lot of things are distributed (you are vastly more likely to read your national news, shop at national ecommerce shop, shipping rates are much higher if you do that oversees, etc.).
We stick to our local languages because they're part of who we are. Europe would probably have a little more money if we stopped doing that, but it would be a lot poorer.
(A language is a dialect with an army and a navy)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_language_is_a_dialect_with_a...
Scandinavians are some of the most successful societies, despite of small languages. Languages have cultural baggage to them; every time I hear English, I see high inequality, poor worker rights, obsession with money, yet excellence in science and higher education. No one wants to abandon their own and assume English identity.
No wonder Jeb Bush is taking a lot of flack for speaking Spanish in public when you got crowd like this.
Also one of the huge benefits of post WWII order was the creation of homogeneous national countries. Which explains the abnormally long peace period. So nationalism and national identity are extremely strong in europe.
England does not see itself as part of Europe. If anything, England sees Europe as an extension of France. And England hates France with a vengeance. Geography and history aside, the UK is not a European country at heart.
We Arabic speakers also enjoy or suffer , it depends on your perspective, from this phenomenon as we mostly speak in dialect all the time but in formal contexts esp. in writing, we use the Modern Standard Arabic instead. However, writing in dialect or MSA derived languages is becoming more acceptable in literature and the press at least where I come from, that's Egypt.
Călătorie sprâncenată, frățâne!
Because they don't all know English and even if they did, why the fuck should they?
Because the local language is a majority language where it is the local language, and, globally, every language is a minority language (and English isn't even the biggest minority -- its #2, far behind Mandarin, for total speakers, and #3, behind Spanish which is far behind Mandarin, for native speakers.)