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datashow

597 karma · joined October 23, 2019

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datashow··on Coronavirus Death Toll Rises to 805, Passing SARS
I have serious doubt on the death count.

According to the numbers I got from https://news.qq.com/zt2020/page/feiyan.htm now:

Death rate in Hubei province is 780/27100 = 2.88%

Death rate in all the other provinces combined is 32/10127 = 0.32%

So the death rate in Hubei is 9 times of other provinces. Is this really possible? ZheJiang province has 1075 confirmed cases now, but still 0 death count. Seriously? Hong Kong only has 26 confirmed cases, but already has 1 death count.

For SARS, China has a 6.6%, much lower than other countries. For example, Hong Kong has a death rate of 17%. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr... )

Do international researchers use China's officially reported count in their modeling?

datashow··on Federal agencies use cellphone location data for immigration enforcement
After reading the story, I feel the main point is not about immigration enforcement. The main point here is that the government agencies bought anonymized marketing data and used them for law enforcement purpose.

On the one hand I do feel the danger here. On the other hand, it seems there's no legal barrier to prevent government agencies from purchasing data available for regular corporations.

datashow··on New High of 90% of Americans Satisfied with Personal Life
The 2016 poll was not off, what was wrong is the prediction models which did not take account of electoral college sufficiently. Poll and prediction are two very different things.
datashow··on New High of 90% of Americans Satisfied with Personal Life
> "Satisfaction with personal life" will have very different implications for different people to the point of being useless.

Of course "satisfaction with personal life", like many things in survey, can have very different implications for different people. But it does not necessarily make it being useless.

You could ask more questions about people specific satisfactions with personal life, it does not make the general sense of satisfaction with personal life useless.

datashow··on 95th percentile isn't that hard to reach
It is true that regular practice can easily put you on very high percentile among participants. So it is easy to be on 95% in one or two things.

On the other hand, for the same reason, it is very hard to be on 95% in multiple things at the same time, because you won't have time to regularly practice on multiple things.

For the same reason, I would also argue that for regular people it is also hard to be on 95% in just one thing outside of work, because people need to take care of their family.

datashow··on Children of immigrants have higher rates of upward mobility than US-born
There are people thinking all need to be done is just "fix the system" and then people who were making efforts will be selected.
datashow··on Children of immigrants have higher rates of upward mobility than US-born
Searching for job in a different country, moving to another country for the job, these are by definition ambitious.
datashow··on Children of immigrants have higher rates of upward mobility than US-born
Not really encouraging. You can't make parents more ambitious and effortful.

This is basically saying personal efforts matter. I believe this is not most upward mobility advocators want to hear.

datashow··on Twitter to label deepfakes and other deceptive media
No, that first article was written in 2019.
datashow··on Red meat and processed food 'not back on the menu' according to new review
This way of interpreting the data is misleading. For population, it still could mean nothing. People are not living in an isolated environment just eating red meat or processed food and do nothing else. At the population level there are way more factors need to be considered. You can't even imagine how many things in the society will be impacted if people stop eating red meat or the processed food. CVD will be the least of concern at the population level.

So, yes, this tiny effect size means nothing.

Moreover, this tiny effect size could be much smaller than noises in the data.

datashow··on Twitter to label deepfakes and other deceptive media
You don't even need to edit the picture. All you need is just pick the right picture.

Just pick a few pictures where A1 was holding A2's hand, and where B1 was not holding B2's hand. Now you have a story.

datashow··on Twitter to label deepfakes and other deceptive media
mc32 wasn't talking about 2016 vs 2020. It was 2019 vs 2020.
datashow··on The University’s New Loyalty Oath
I think you are stretching too hard. University is not any corporation. The core value of an university is to pursue truth and knowledge, so free expression and free thinking are essential to universities. At least that's how most people understand it. Maybe you have an alternative theory to redefine university ...
datashow··on The University’s New Loyalty Oath
I'm seriously confused by your comment. Are we reading the same article? Which "corporation" are you talking about?
datashow··on Nvidia Geforce Now launches at $5 a month
Mac or laptop seems to be a good reason for this service, but I am not sure about its value for a PC desktop. $5 / month for 2 years is $120. I can get an OK graphic card to play game on my PC with this price.
datashow··on Nvidia Geforce Now launches at $5 a month
I have never used this kind of service before. What is the bandwidth required to stream a game play on a server? And how does the latency affect the experience?
datashow··on China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen
OK. So here is the real news: Shanghai Composite index plunges 8.7% as market reopens https://www.news10.com/news/shanghai-composite-index-plunges...

So the $174B isn't working?

datashow··on China’s Funding of U.S. Researchers Raises Red Flags
"When officials at the Texas A&M University System sought to determine how much Chinese government funding its faculty members were receiving, they were astounded at the results—more than 100 were involved with a Chinese talent-recruitment program, even though only five had disclosed their participation."
datashow··on Elizabeth Warren proposes criminal penalties for spreading voting disinfo online
No. Warren did not narrow it to only about voting.

Here is her own website: https://elizabethwarren.com/plans/fighting-digital-disinform...

Edit: after read through the webpage, I realized that although the webpage talks about lots of things, but she did only propose to criminalize disinformation about voting. But this still feels dangerous. It's really like a tactic from authoritarian governments. They would talk about "disinformation" as a broad concept, and propose to criminalize the worst ones, and then expand the scope of regulation under the same concept.

datashow··on Illinois governor signs law capping insulin costs at $100 per month
If it does happen, for some people, it proves the whole system is wrong, not their own ideology.
datashow··on Harvard scientist is arrested, accused of lying about ties to China
> To me, the whole China "thing" seems like a political witch hunt to avoid talking about real issues (impeachment, the 2020 elections, automation, the fact we have no idea what to do with all the people we can't find jobs for).

The whole China thing started even before Trump got elected. Trump has been critical of China for decade: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jdIshuoRBQ , Trump repeated this message in Primary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cy9iY6CvAHU

The trade war started in 2017: https://www.china-briefing.com/news/the-us-china-trade-war-a...

FBI director stated China is No.1 threat in 2018: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPi2uD__Ga8 , also: https://www.businessinsider.com/china-threat-to-america-fbi-...

No. It has nothing to do with impeachment or the 2020 election.

datashow··on Harvard scientist is arrested, accused of lying about ties to China
It is relevant, if it is not because of the change of direction of the U.S. foreign policy, he can still keep undetected.
datashow··on Harvard scientist is arrested, accused of lying about ties to China
You are a scientist? Maybe you never worked in a university as a full time employee?

Faculty are required to report outside jobs, see: https://provost.harvard.edu/statement-outside-activities-hol...

Do you know when you accept big grant you also must follow similar rules?

Yes, you can collaborate in science, but you do not live in a vacuum, scientists also need to follow the rules of a society.

datashow··on Harvard scientist is arrested, accused of lying about ties to China
I guess the story is that when he started in 2012 he thought nobody cares. Actually he got it right at that time. Although it was violation of government rules, nobody really cared at that time.

He could not predict the change of direction of the U.S. foreign policy. China is taking place of Russia as the No. 1 threat. How could he predict this in 2012?

BTW, I am curious to know did he pay tax for those income? If not, that will be another very serious problem.

datashow··on Wuhan scientists: What it’s like to be on lockdown
This YouTube channel has a few videos from Wuhan hospitals: https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCWquusYx1dLo9otmMLwuZFg

Also see how locals block roads: https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=%E5%B0%81%E8%B7%AF

datashow··on All Sonos products will continue to work past May
I am curious to know what it’s the point to have this kind of system?

I can imagine you would want to play the same music through the house when you have a big party. Other than that I don’t see much of need. You can simply have a sound system in each room so each family member can its own music , or carry a movable device with you.

datashow··on U.S. surveillance laws have proven ineffective at countering terrorism
> "U.S. surveillance laws failed to counter terrorism"

> "The patchwork of U.S. surveillance laws has proven ineffective at countering terrorism"

Where is the proof? I can not find it in the article.

datashow··on Questions I would ask God about the game of Go
Why don’t we play a 9x9 board for historical and sentimental reasons? Because it’s too easy for professionals.
datashow··on Questions I would ask God about the game of Go
If it is true that Go is also played by other Alien species, there is no guarantee that they all play on the same size of board.

If earth is visited by Aliens some day, we should assume they play on larger board than us. It would be laughable that we get visited by 9*9 players.

datashow··on An alternative argument for why women leave STEM
> Non-working mothers is a modern anomaly. It used to be a sign of wealth for a man to have a non-working wife.

You really need some data to back it up here. "I worked, my mother worked, my grandmothers worked, and my great grandmothers worked." is not good evidence. For one, there is a representative issue. For another, there is a huge difference between part-time work and full-time work. We don't know how many hours your mother, grandmothers, and great grandmothers worked, or worked for how many years.

Check data presented on this webpage: https://ourworldindata.org/female-labor-force-participation-... . Female labor participation rate has being increasing since 1900.

Apparently the data contradicted with your own personal experience. This is why we should try to avoid general argument based on our on personal experience.

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