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chmullig

396 karma · joined February 21, 2009

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chmullig··on Stan: a probabilistic programming language
Yay Stan! So what's the deal with BBVI? I heard it's integrated in the newest Stan, but can I use it? What for?
chmullig··on Stan: a probabilistic programming language
In my mind, there's two points to Stan. The first is the actual math -- it can fit lots of models, much faster and more flexibly than other alternatives.

The second is to go out and meet the practitioners where they are. That means making Stan models look like the equations in your paper. It means connecting to existing research software ecosystems. It means making it easy to adapt. In this case, if you end up tightly coupled to, say, specific R data structure then it becomes much, much harder to make it also work well for Python, and for Stata, etc. Additionally, it means that if I start on a model in Python then I cannot easily switch to using R (or vice-versa).

Using a DSL also has the nice property of cleanly separating Stan world vs R world. That makes it easier for users to build an accurate mental model for what happens when/where, which hopefully then leads to better performance.

Most importantly though, Stan code is incredibly concise and clear for specifying models.

chmullig··on Stan: a probabilistic programming language
Stan is very much a successor to BUGS, although I'm not sure BUGS is better known outside certain social science research communities these days.
chmullig··on Stan: a probabilistic programming language
Stan is a fantastic language/library/tool. (Disclosure, I've taken 2 classes with Andrew Gelman[1].

For those who haven't used it, the typical usage is to use Stan in combination with other languages (most commonly R). In the Stan language you define a model, specifying the data you'll get, potentially transformations to that data, then a set of parameters you want to fit, then finally a model saying how those parameters interact with each other and the data. You can also define priors for parameters. Then typically you save that model, and using R pass in the variables to a Stan call. The resulting fit object is returned to your original environment automatically.

It actually fits the work style reasonably well. All data munging happens as before, but instead of having some complicated model expression in, say, a glm() call, you have it in Stan language.

If you're interested in this, Gelman has two great books. Gelman & Hill's Hierarchical Models[2] which is applied and geared towards social science researchers, and Bayesian Data Analysis[3].

[1] http://andrewgelman.com/

[2] http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/arm/

[3] http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/

chmullig··on ISS Virtual Tour
Seems like their poor server is struggling with load.
chmullig··on Geeknet to be acquired by Hot Topic
I think it's been on that trajectory for longer than 2 years. They lost anything that made them unique or interesting years ago. It just became Dr Who/Star Trek/Star Wars/LOTR/whatever franchise of the moment shit.
chmullig··on Meet the guy trying to turn emoji into a legitimate, usable language
One note of likely relevance to the HN crowd, if the Kickstarter[1] is successful, we're definitely planning to release an API + the raw data.

[1] https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/fred/the-emoji-translat...

chmullig··on OS X Reviewed
They're incredible, absolutely incredible.

As an Ars forum member from back as early as 2001, I appreciate everything you did, John. Thanks!

chmullig··on “Today we moved into our new Facebook building”
Facebook has Wayfinders that provide an interactive touch screen map all over campus. Type in a name and it shows you where they are, relative to where you are. Super handy.
chmullig··on “Today we moved into our new Facebook building”
FWIW normally Facebookers aren't permitted to take/post photos of work areas. You're generally encouraged to keep visitors away from them as well.
chmullig··on “Today we moved into our new Facebook building”
Everyone at FB is already in open offices. It's just on the scale of a floor of a normal building, instead of a gigantic building.
chmullig··on Ikea's flat-pack refugee shelter is entering production
Have you considered that maybe actually selling them to end users is > double the cost?

Massive amounts of risk, supply chain, logistics, all eliminated when selling to the UN like this.

chmullig··on Why Does the International Space Station Have That Shape?
The flat screens are airline dependent. They were fantastic on Norwegian.

Overall I'm a fan of the Dreamliner (only 2 flights, a roundtrip on Norwegian). Seats were reasonably comfortable, even for economy on a budget airline. The big windows are nice. It was definitely quieter and (placebo?) the air did feel less gross.

Downsides: The arm rest didn't fully rise out of the way, so it's no good for sleeping on your partner's shoulder. The not-fully-dimming windows were a little annoying, but also really neat.

chmullig··on The People Who Run Wikipedia
First read that was "The people who ruin wikipedia." Then realized the real headline. Then realized they're kinda the same people...
chmullig··on How Standing Desks Can Help Students Focus in the Classroom
++ These are really cheap compared to alternatives on the market.
chmullig··on Jury finds CBS infringes podcasting patent, awards $1.3M
God damn it, eastern district of Texas. Please stop ruining America.
chmullig··on The Father of Net Neutrality Is Running for Office
It's really tragic, as a politically interested Columbia student I hadn't realized who he was, or that he was running, until this afternoon. :(
chmullig··on SpaceX rocket explodes during testing over Texas
They've done lots of launches of the Grasshopper and F9R landing tests there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwwS4YOTbbw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UjWqQPWmsY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZDkItO-0a4

chmullig··on Triple-E Ship Leaves Port With World Record Load
But if there's a single shipping container at Amundsen-Scott...
chmullig··on Guess which language overuses AbstractAdapterFactory
Guess which language overuses __init__!

https://github.com/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&q=__init__&type=Cod...

chmullig··on Neglected machine learning ideas
This is actually a great overview/review of some of the things that I've encounter regularly at work, but never seen discussed seriously in a book or class.
chmullig··on $1,000 Hepatitis Pill Shows Why Fixing Health Costs Is So Hard
Similar story for my uncle, who's 4 weeks post treatment and is showing as cured so far. He's on disability though, so Medicaid (or Medicare? not sure) is paying most of it. The pharmacist got him in a program to cover the copay, too.
chmullig··on Hotel fines $500 for every bad review posted online
Read the yelp reviews, at least once mentions it.
chmullig··on Facebook Reports Second Quarter 2014 Results
No, the original was correct. That's 1.07B distinct people.

Crazier, IMO, is the DAU. 829 million log in EVERY DAY.

chmullig··on SpaceX Soft Lands Falcon 9 Rocket First Stage
colorbrewer
chmullig··on Inverter
Very interesting game. Unfortunately I found it just devolved into random clicking - there weren't enough clues to give me much strategy. Gave up when the grid got to ~9x9, and it was just a waste trying to get it working.
chmullig··on Rap Genius Raises $40M, Changes Name To Genius
Agreed. Everything I've seen from them, every time I've interacted, I've felt like I needed a shower. They're scummy, shitty guys, and hopefully ejecting that founder will help them.
chmullig··on Facebook's unethical experiment manipulated users' emotions
It was approved by an IRB.
chmullig··on We Have No Idea If Online Ads Work
It's very frequently measured with pretty standard experimental designs involving treatment and control groups. Track sales to each group, and you can easily figure out the return on ad spend.
chmullig··on I Resent You – An Open Letter to Shanley Kane
I feel really bad for Chad. I agree with @didgeoridoo that it feels like I just watched a dog get kicked.

He's on a quixotic quest toward a certain kind of world, with openness and transparency. Unfortunately when he tries to interface with the rest of the world it can often go horribly wrong. His general attempts at embracing those who disagree with him, eg by thanking them and retweeting, exacerbate and lend weight to unpleasant comments.

It's truly unfortunate that Chad didn't manage to support the diversity activist community in a way that was acceptable to them. I think fundamentally there missions are much more similar that they're acknowledging now, and each is loosing out on what could potentially be a great ally.

I hope in the future these sort of things can be more constructively handled on both sides that either has so far.

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