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ceterum_censeo

163 karma · joined October 6, 2016

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ceterum_censeo··on Quick, How Might the Alien Spacecraft Work?
A valid concern. The very first line: This post is about the movie Arrival; there are no movie spoilers here.
ceterum_censeo··on Donald Trump’s Contract with the American Voter [pdf]
We're talking a difference of $10k/year, that's a lot of money. And you're speaking of miners at the lowest rungs of the ladder: what of those more experienced, or the geologists and mining engineers who are paid 2--3 times more?

Your solution doesn't provide for the workers. I'm sure you're sincere, but a handout from the government is not perceived as a substitute for challenging, meaningful, and respectable work. Basic income proposals don't generally seem to consider pride, other than what I see as nebulous handwaving about how one would be free to pursue their dreams. What dreams are there in coal country when there is no coal? I don't see BI alone as helping to sustain or resurrect a community and associated way of life whose primary industry is one you've eliminated.

ceterum_censeo··on Donald Trump’s Contract with the American Voter [pdf]
Average coal miner's salary is a lot more than $32k/year.

e: the salary info wasn't in the comment when I replied.

ceterum_censeo··on Formation of Tesla Advanced Automation Germany
Is it really a mistake? I'm under the impression that automakers pursue FCVs because of the government incentives. I would think that a portion of the R&D could support other alternative fuel vehicle systems, so even if FCVs aren't the future (and it doesn't seem so) it perhaps isn't necessarily a mistake to investigate them if it's incentivized.
ceterum_censeo··on Ask HN: What's the best aha moment you've had?
In E&M class, seeing Maxwell's equations be manipulated into the wave equations that predict a propagating EM wave.
ceterum_censeo··on Formation of Tesla Advanced Automation Germany
That sales comparison you're using is based on the assumption that the Model S competes with large luxury cars, and it ignores the overlap between similar models (e.g., S-class and CLS). On features and price however, the Model S more closely competes with midsize luxury cars. I think the Model S is unique and looking at either large or midsize comparibles alone isn't informative, but I think it's closer to midsize than large.

The i3 is efficient not because it is tiny, but because it is light weight. Weight reduction is hard and it is a lesson Tesla has yet to learn.

> The simple fact is that the Germans know if they put out an EV sedan or SUV, they will cannibalize their own market share and their investments in combustion engine manufacturing, which are massive, will be lost.

They haven't put out an EV sedan or SUV yet because the market isn't profitable yet. The trend for engines has long been towards becoming a commodity sourced from elsewhere and tuned in-house or a scalable design, i.e., except for models where the engine is a selling point you're not investing your money in engines. As to cannibalizing their own sales, I don't understand your point.

ceterum_censeo··on Formation of Tesla Advanced Automation Germany
> Not only has Tesla created the greatest external challenge to the German auto industry that I can think of.

The greatest challenge they faced is one they still face: the Japanese auto manufacturers. Toyota remains unbeatable on quality; the pursuit of Toyota is claimed as an element of VW's recent fall from grace. At this point Tesla is barely a blip on the radar in comparison considering volume (current and planned) or quality.

> I believe one of VW, Mercedes Benz and BMW will bankrupt in 5-10 years. None of them have taken EV serious yet and I fear it's soon too late.

Daimler took it seriously enough to invest in Tesla, and to use Tesla as a supplier in their own B-class EV sold in the US. The BMW i series feature some pretty innovative thinking with respect to construction, materials, and design. The payoff is that the BMW i3 is the most efficient EPA-certified vehicle, more efficient than any of Tesla's models: http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/extremeMPG.jsp (e: and the i series are likely produced under a more efficient and sustainable production process, but it's hard to find a single link in support of this claim)

> Both are still concept cars but they represent what they expect their EVs should look like.

They are concepts, and so are explorations of design elements, features, etc. DFM changes the design significantly, even if one tries to keep to the concept.

> How are the Germans going to catch up?

They already have, they are just much more conservative in releasing their products because of earned experience. e: When the demand is present, the Germans and other incumbent manufacturers will be ready. This article reflects Tesla playing catchup with respect to automation, something the incumbents have already figured out.

ceterum_censeo··on An Update to Our Supercharging Program
Is the current free Supercharger access tied to the owner or the car, i.e., if I bought a pre-2017 Model S where the previous owner had free Supercharger access, would I also have access?
ceterum_censeo··on Simple Lane Detection
To what degree will the recent NHTSA self-driving guidelines be covered in your program?
ceterum_censeo··on George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’
Ditto. It also seems strange to be able to retask their radar from secondary to primary control.
ceterum_censeo··on George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’
It was a secondary discriminating sensor, but the latest Autopilot 8 upgrade retasks radar to be "a primary control sensor without requiring the camera to confirm visual image recognition": https://www.tesla.com/blog/upgrading-autopilot-seeing-world-...
ceterum_censeo··on George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’
Sorry, I thought I was in and out before anyone had seen my comment. I added a clear edit mark to fess up.

I originally wrote "kill" to mirror your original comment, but I changed it because it (as I perceive the word) presumes a level of intent that I don't think NHTSA operates with: I don't think that NHTSA has any intent to destroy this company. In fact, if comma.ai reached out to NHTSA, I would expect NHTSA to assist (within reason) in answering the letter.

I do think that these are straightforward questions for a group that has its act together. Part of having one's act together in a regulated environment is maintaining open lines of communication with regulators, so that questions would be asked should come as no surprise. Keeping up to date with the regulatory environment would also be expected, and given the recent autonomous driving publication the content and scope of these questions should come as no surprise.

If these questions kill the company, I don't see that as being the fault of NHTSA, I see that as being the fault of whoever is in charge of regulatory affairs at comma.ai.

ceterum_censeo··on George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’
The documentation that the NHTSA is requesting are things that would already exist for a properly designed product. They are not asking for it to be generated de novo (and in fact, it cannot be done in that manner if they are operating under a proper design process).

This letter is designed to give pause to (e: previously I wrote "kill") a company operating with complete disregard for proper operations in a regulated industry.

ceterum_censeo··on George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’
Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards
ceterum_censeo··on George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’
And he would have needed to have performed the development under an appropriately rigorous development process.
ceterum_censeo··on Soylent halts sales of its powder as customers keep getting sick
For me, an omelette roulée. Quick, fun to make, doesn't need much cleanup, and infinite versatility.
ceterum_censeo··on Tesla reports first quarterly profit in more than three years
Thanks for your patience :) I learned some new stuff too!
ceterum_censeo··on Tesla reports first quarterly profit in more than three years
Nice find, that helps. My reading is that it's slightly more than an artifact: Tesla is guaranteeing a residual, so the sale to the bank is conditional and so cannot be recorded as a simple sale.

GAAP strikes me as a set of things that, alone, are good intentions but combined are more confusing than they need to be.

ceterum_censeo··on Tesla reports first quarterly profit in more than three years
Ok, got it now, thanks.

Any idea why they have to list automotive leasing as a separate line item on their report? If they are selling it to a bank who is then responsible for the lease, why list it separately?

ceterum_censeo··on Tesla reports first quarterly profit in more than three years
Sorry, not trying to be difficult, but this doesn't clear things up for me. Are you saying that Tesla does not lease directly to the consumer?
ceterum_censeo··on Tesla reports first quarterly profit in more than three years
I guess that is my confusion, I thought Tesla was originating the lease.
ceterum_censeo··on Tesla reports first quarterly profit in more than three years
Doesn't the credit go to Tesla when it is leased?
ceterum_censeo··on Tesla reports first quarterly profit in more than three years
Is the federal EV tax credit a component of the margin calculations?
ceterum_censeo··on Images of New MacBook Pro with Magic Toolbar Leaked in MacOS Sierra 10.12.1
Both haptic feedback and pressure sensitivity are within Apple's capabilities. This could actually be an improvement (imagine feeling a virtual volume slider scroll with dampened resistance).
ceterum_censeo··on Tesla plunges in Consumer Reports' rankings
http://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability/car-brands-re...

is a better link, since it has the actual table referenced by the article.

ceterum_censeo··on Congressman calls for probe into Valeant’s pricing of lead poisoning drug
Even for expensive APIs, the cost of the compound is a small portion of the overall cost.

Directly comparing the advertised price between the US market and the formulary price for the UK isn't informative. It would be more informative to compare the ASP in the US to the UK price, but part of the problem with costs in the US is that those prices are not transparent.

That the compound is off patent doesn't affect the price if it is single source for this market. It takes something like 4 generic manufacturers to see fairer pricing emerge.

ceterum_censeo··on Congressman calls for probe into Valeant’s pricing of lead poisoning drug
> this smells a lot like apologetics.

That's hardly my intention here, and frankly, I find the accusation both insulting and offensive.

As with many (most?) pharmaceuticals, the cost of the active ingredient doesn't play a large role in the ultimate price. This is a prescription injectable with a volume of 200–300 units per year. It will need to be produced under GMP, and since the volume is minuscule, it's going to be produced using an expensive batch process. Setup/teardown, time, testing, packaging and logistics are going to dominate the per unit cost. It's really, really difficult to predict what the cost would be without more research, but somewhere between the original $950 and the current $27k wouldn't surprise me less than either extreme. (Keep in mind these aren't the ASP)

Portraying the entire pharmaceutical industry as one of comfortable monopolies based on the actions of some unlikeable bad actors isn't fair: the majority of the industry defines "cut throat".

ceterum_censeo··on Congressman calls for probe into Valeant’s pricing of lead poisoning drug
If you're going to pull prices off Sigma, at the very least you should quote the USP grade.

The cost of a pharmaceutical is not the raw material cost for the API, which is frequently a small fraction of the total cost. The majority of the cost is in meeting regulatory requirements (e.g. GMP production, traceable testing). In the case of this product, a volume of 200–300 units per year is so tiny I would expect the setup/teardown costs for batch manufacture to also play a role.

$27k sounds outrageously high, but the original $950 sounds equally outrageously low in light of the volume.

ceterum_censeo··on Congressman calls for probe into Valeant’s pricing of lead poisoning drug
> With respect to concerns about the list price of CDV, past price actions enabled the provision of consistent supply of a product with high carrying costs and very limited purchase volume of 200-300 units per year. The list price of CDV does not reflect the actual cost of the product to hospitals that purchase it, after rebates and other adjustments. Because CDV has a relatively limited shelf life and the minimum CDV purchase requirement for Valeant is roughly 3-5 times higher than recent annual sales volume, we have written down at our own expense approximately half of purchased quantities in the past few years. The company does not generate material revenue from this product, which represents less than 0.01% of our total revenue.

(statement by Valeant)

A pharmaceutical that is being produced in such low volumes, irrespective of how mundane and cheap the raw chemical may be, cannot be produced cheaply.

ceterum_censeo··on Herbal, dietary supplements cause one-fifth of liver injuries
I cynically thought that homeopathy was just distilled water, but then there is this: http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/uc...
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