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baybal2

13,766 karma · joined June 12, 2016

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baybal2··on Japanese manhole mass production process [video]
1 crore views per month on YT let you live like a king in PK.

They are living almost entirely off Western clicks, since Asian traffic counts for nothing in YT algo.

A classmate of mine once made an amateur documentary about Pakistani heavy industry few years ago, and then it oddly took off.

baybal2··on Bulgarian law enforcement raids offices of cryptocurrency firm Nexo
> Btw, if anyone wants to finance terrorism by using a crypto exchange, let be clear: that's a very bad idea. Have your own wallet and use at least some privacy coins ...

Or just buy your own bank...

The disposable bank industry is thriving around the world, and is completely circumventing all of that nonsense AML theatre in its entirety.

The draconian banking reporting regulation only impact individuals, but nearly none business accounts, and close to nothing is aimed at banking institutions themselves.

You literally need more papers to open a bank account in some EU countries, than to buy a fully fledged tier 1 bank, with a central bank account, and direct access to FX exchanges, clearing, securities brokerages etc.

baybal2··on No, you can’t manufacture that like Apple does (2014)
You need experience, and hands-on approach.

"3 years, and millions of dollars" — is very typical when you keep going from factory, to factory, leaving tooling investment every time they screw up.

Instead, you have to pick at least a sane, and understanding factory owner, and wait for them to improve.

baybal2··on Sim Wong Hoo has died
One of very few Singaporean semi companies which made it.

The only one I would list second to it would be Espressif, which makes ESP8266 and ESP32.

I lived in Singapore as a student 2007-2009.

baybal2··on Volodymyr “Fresh” Yezhov, S.T.A.L.K.E.R. dev and the face of 'Loki', has died
> I wonder how he ended up getting sent to the meat grinder.

ALL of my Ukraininan friends, including a classmate of 6 years who immigrated to Ukraine from Russia are volunteering to fight this war, or work as volunteers for a relief effort, 2 women included, who went back to Ukraine after living for years in Canada. And I am not some crazy nationalist. I just have a taste in finding people who are best, and brightest.

So far, in my contact list: 1 owner of a SMT factory from Kiyv, chief agronomist in a large farm enterprise in the south, 3 senior software developers who were making 6 digits up to the point the decided to go to war.

baybal2··on EU-wide maximum limit of €10K for cash payments
> Terrorists and those who finance them are not welcome in Europe. In order to launder dirty money, criminal individuals and organisations had to look for loopholes in our existing rules which are already quite strict.

Russian mafia is living in billion dollar mansions all around EU in the open, with full knowledge of EU 3 letter services.

Why would anybody go for "retail" laundering when you can buy a bank for a pocket change in Cyprus?

Ways to launder money fully legally are vastly, vastly more widespread than mules with bags of cash, and are protected by connivance of Western governments.

baybal2··on Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash
An unfortunate Russian citizen here. I left Russia in 2006, but the passport is still like an iron beam on my neck.

And you would also get the exit ban. FYI, people who worked for Russian biggest banks are now banned from leaving the country, and that is not only IT, real bankers are banned from leaving as well.

Owners of biggest commercial enterprises, and their children were also forbidden from leaving.

Russian FOREX, and crossborder transactions are nominally still open, but any outgoing transaction over $10,000 triggers an automatic account freeze.

People are also unable to sell their property. There is no official ban, but the necessary paperwork for property sale is impossible to do now.

Stock market is bust, but brokerages are also effectively shut down without declaring it publicly. Dividends are frozen because the electronic system controlling dividend transactions simply been physically switched off for months.

Russian customs enforcement always been draconian, but now it went into total overdrive, with Russia-Kazakhstan border seeing kilometres long queues because now 100% of all cars, and cargo goes through full search. People been trying to save their last money by trying to get it over the border as gold bars, only to have them seized with zero paperwork.

baybal2··on TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab
That fab will not be even 1% of US semiconductor consumption.

And it will come to a halt within weeks if consumables will stop coming from Taiwan.

baybal2··on Emergency declared and curfew imposed following North Carolina power grid attack
One country been in the state of war for 8 years, and another not (if you don't count one sided aerial bombing a war.)
baybal2··on TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia
> b) we also have to be a bit realistic about the facts on the ground.

Realistic facts on the ground for you:

The prime majority of rural Taiwanese who don't speak English are even bigger sinophobes, and have even less relation with the mainland.

Most Sinophilic area in TW is Taipei, where the highest concentration of migrants from China live, and from where the lion share of immigrants to US comes from.

What "facts on the ground" you expected to see?

baybal2··on The Transistor of 2047: Expert Predictions
My prediction

Some form of monolithic 3D is a must to continue Moore's law. Monolithic 3D is different from stacked dies because you make layers of transistors on top of other transistors, instead making them separately, and gluing them together later.

CMOS will transform into something where PMOS, and NMOS part will be combined into one. IMEC already has working forksheet CMOS where P an N parts are sitting side by side. Ideally, N, and P parts will be stacked on top of each other.

All around gates will likely be adopted, either vertical, or horizontal, as they seem to be even easier to do than fins for a given level of performance.

Power will be put onto other side of the die, or buried under epi layer — already in works, and seem to be working well. TSVs will get small enough to use vias to connect individual transistors. Metal routing is getting increasingly more permissive with EUV in general.

New middle-end metals — a possibility.

COAG — already working on latest FinFETs. The metal contact is descended directly onto the gate, rather than on a space near it. All barrier layers are grown directly on top of it as well.

Individual cells will get verticalised as well, and most device development will be done with cells being treated as one device.

We may find a way to put a layer of 3-5 semiconductor on top of silicon wafer to use it for either P or N part of a CMOS device.

Fundamentally new types of FETs are dark horses, and it may well be we may go away from FETs for most high performance comping chips. For always working devices, the relative power efficiency difference of BJT is getting better, and better as device size gets lower. TFETs, and other subthreshold devices can also turn mainstream very fast if people will find ways to work around their inherent issues.

baybal2··on How long would society last during a total grid collapse?
EMP was mostly relevant for the time when there was no digital grid protection.

Powerlines worked as giant antennas picking up the VLF component of the blast, driving voltages in megavolts for a brief while. All tricky analog devicery which was used to control the grid in seventies had no protection.

Now, fast acting digital safeties will certainly be more robust.

baybal2··on Termux on Android 5 or 6
Chinese OEMs still pump devices running Android 4.* by millions.

Why? Chipset support: Spreadtrum, RockChips, AW, AmLogic simply didn't release BSP updates for some of their most in demand chips.

baybal2··on Russia to Withdraw Troops from Kherson
I highly suggest avoiding Western political analysts for Russia coverage, and highly follow Western military analysts instead.

As a man unfortunate to spend 13 years in the country, I can only confirm that Western Kremlinology has zero basis in reality.

baybal2··on ‘I want to protect my family’: Polish civilians flock to army training
Russia has world's biggest park of SAM systems.

Even if the combined NATO force would've sent all planes it had in Europe, it would not be physically enough to destroy 39000 pieces of armour, and vehicles.

Only land warfare would've been able to stall this iron ball before it overran airbases.

baybal2··on ‘I want to protect my family’: Polish civilians flock to army training
Russia had a force for 240 to 260 thousand stationed across the border with Ukraine at the eve of February 24. They are a highly mechanised force, with more artillery firepower than of any NATO military except Turkey, and Greece.

It was only because Ukraine was uniquely prepared to give Russia a symmetric response using a lot of raw firepower, they managed to withstand their first attack wave.

If that force of 250 thousands would have rolled into Europe instead, you would've been fucked. Do you realise that?

baybal2··on ‘I want to protect my family’: Polish civilians flock to army training
The important aspect here is that it previously criticised for shifting resources from a career military.

A 300k active service military would be of course nothing to scoff at, especially with a lot of long range weapons.

But what we see in Ukraine is they had biggest army in Europe, and they also wanted to go mostly professional, but their core force, the most well trained soldier took an enormous hit, and is melting away.

Soldiers whom they spent years preparing are still humans, and are dying to artillery, air strikes, and zerg rushes of Russian "disposables" (draftees, Wanger mercenaries, and LPR/DPR levy.) These highly trained soldiers are not trading their lives meaningfully when they sit in trenches, and can't attack because the frontline is so stretched out, and manpower is drained for menial tasks.

This is all shows that you can't fight something like Russia with professional army only if you are a country of only 44m people.

A degree of differentiation in between career warriors who will spend a decade or more in the military vs. somebody who will go for a 2-3 year contract, and reservists with minimal training is absolutely essential.

Israel maintains a 1 to 3 split in between professional soldiers, and the good part of their reserve (people who regularly train, fit, and had good scores in tests.) The ratio is way bigger on the paper though.

baybal2··on As last module docks, China completes its space station
Jet airliners are not airtight, nor they deal with 1 bar of pressure difference.

In space, you have to make it airtight with most rubbers drying our, and constant intense thermal cycling.

baybal2··on As last module docks, China completes its space station
It's extremely hard to join large structures airtight, with joints being stronger than the material itself.

Soviet, and Russian spacecraft, and modules were traditionally made with extremely uneconomical method of machining the vessel from a single giant piece of aluminium to not to worry about joints, and their strength under space conditions.

baybal2··on How Iran can track and control protesters’ phones: hacked documents
A roaming SIM itself would be a red flag. On the other hand, grabbing a man based on SIM ID on the street wouldn't be an easy thing in a large city.

SIM tower triangulation is only accurate to a hundred meters or more in a large city.

baybal2··on CT scans of batteries
Cylindrical cell life is limited by graphite expansion.

You can only have a roll that long before tension from anode expansion will start mechanically damaging it.

Manufacturers intentionally leave some free space to let the roll expand, and shrink

baybal2··on IR-Controlling New Air Conditioner in Server Room
Most of big brand aircons have an option for wired control. It's just those controllers & gateways are rather obscure, and hard to find.
baybal2··on US Export Restrictions, Intel Layoffs, Applied Materials, and TSMC
> They can achieve miracles in 20 years.

Why they didn't do so already?

There hardly been a single regime in history so eager to slaughter hens laying golden eggs.

China is extremely anti-business, and anti-development (unless it's real estate development.) I first understood it when I seen block, and blocks of factories being bulldozed to make space for luxury hotels, and hooker parlours. Tells of priorities of people in power.

baybal2··on QNX DEMO disk (1999)
> As I once told one of their sales execs, "quit worrying about people pirating your system and worry about people ignoring it".

That's a very frequent comment about tech companies with underperforming sales.

This is how ARM leapfrogged MIPS around 2010. Their licensing was basicaly "you are buying a USB stick". MIPS on other hand was "pre-pay us $100k just to have our attorney to take a look on if we can sell to you"

In those "deep" tech companies, it's absolutely not unusual to have sales staffed by people with zero background knowledge, but nevertheless star sales professionals.

baybal2··on Ukraine officially recognized the Northern Territories as part of Japan
The entirety of russian far east is not majority russian.

It was colonized using interned Ukrainians, Poles, and other captive Eastern Europeans.

I spent my early childhood in Vladivostok. The city, and the region has a very different air than the rest of russia.

Even places considered "oriental" in russia, like Siberia, or Astrakhan feel much more like the rest of central russia, than parts of russia east of Blahoveschensk.

baybal2··on VLC-developer VideoLAN sends legal notice to Indian ministries over ban
> Judicial system here is slow, but it at least still works...

Defaults in India are very fast.

baybal2··on VLC-developer VideoLAN sends legal notice to Indian ministries over ban
They can throw the show cause notice, and get a default in 1 month if nobody responds.
baybal2··on ASML's Secret: A view from inside the global semiconductor giant [video]
The bottleneck is not TSMC, but Zeiss which makes the mirrors "more perfect than that of space telescopes"

The yield on those mirrors is very small. They throw away 19 out of 20 mirrors.

baybal2··on Putin annexes four regions of Ukraine in major escalation of Russia’s war
That's absolutely not coincidental.

As a russian citizen whose family once frequented dinners with mayors of cities, and provincial governors back in nineties, I would say half of russian elites are into numerology/occult, or something equally bizarre.

baybal2··on Putin annexes four regions of Ukraine in major escalation of Russia’s war
> Does anyone seriously think that NATO would be able to completely neutralize Russia's nuclear capability before they get a single ICBM launched?

No, but Russia can hardly kill more than 5% of NATO population even if it fires all munitions it has, to the last one, on cities.

The casualty calculations are squarely in NATO's favour.

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