Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

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Another reason is that Western companies stopped their sales in Russia while the West continues to buy natural gas from Russia. Short-term macroeconomic numbers will regard this as an improvement of Russia's trade balance even slightly boost their GDP.

While many have been drafted,“millions” is an exaggeration. Yes, Yerevan is full of Russians at the moment. But likely most are from IT, those who need to get payments from international clients. Doubt that its “millions” though.

Why don't we honor the Budapest agreement and let the Ukrainians finish off Putin's regime with US made weapons if we are going to play word games about the difference between NATO and a firm and unambiguous promise to defend a nation if they give up their nuclear weapons?

The people of Russia don't seem to want this war, they are conscripted. (From what I've read from afar.)

It's time to stop letting totalitarians use people like pawns -- let them fight it out 1 on 1 like the thugs they are. I want to see Putin personally running up on Ukraine like it's the American civil war if he's such a history fan, rather than hiding in a spider hole like the rude little pedophile he is.

Having said that, the real thing that appears to have happened in this war is that Putin is a KGB stooge, not a military commander. He spent most of 2020 and 2021 in isolation due to concerns for COVID and I believe as a result further lost touch. He is fighting this war and setting up information space in Russia as if this was the USSR fighting Germany’s invasion in WWII, which is the war lore most citizens are familiar with. But obviously that isn’t the case as this is clearly a war of conquest, not defense of one’s own home land. Russian citizens and Putin have more or less struck a bargain that as long as his bullshit doesn’t affect them, he gets to remain in power. But clearly this isn’t the case anymore as military call ups and hard hit economy are having a very real effect on the citizens day to day lives. So the real question is whether this is what will eventually break Putin’a hold on Russia.

Another surprising aspect of this war has been the large community of military bloggers that has developed on Telegram. This nationalist group has an outsized influence on both the Russian overall view of the war and even on the Russian military command. They are often quite critical of the Russian MoD and sometimes of Putin, yet Putin has protected them from consequences of this rhetoric. It appears the Russian information space w.r.t. the war is split into thirds between the MoD communications, the federal news outlets, and the milbloggers and of the three the milbloggers have the most freedom to point out the many problems facing the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. Yet Putin protects them because of the three they are the only ones who genuinely are pushing for annexing what they call “so called ‘ukraine’” due to their strong nationalist beliefs. Basically they are the most ideologically aligned with Putin but also the most critical of his failures. The milbloggers often find cover by criticizing MoD officials and generals in the field instead of Putin himself, and it appears that Purim’s frequent staff shake ups have taken at least some cues from this group. I wonder if a Western information campaign could disrupt this critical component of the war effort.

Lastly, Putin’s main ace in the hole is that NATO is trying to invade Russia and Ukraine was the last stop on their way in. The boogieman of the West is so far enough to get at least some older Russians to believe in the war effort. I have relatives there that are convinced that the war atrocities being committed by Russian AF in Ukraine aren’t real and that it is all crisis actors in the TV and internet footage. But at the same time Putin is definitely showing that NATO could clearly crush the Russian armed forces, nukes aside. Russia apparently still relies on trains to conduct its warfare for example, a practice that went away at the end of the last century for most modernized militaries. Essentially the only thing left in Russia is nukes, oil, hunger, and an out of touch dictator who keeps making military mistakes.

I imagine the average American is doing worse than that since then.

In 2014 USA, things for me and my peers were finally stabilizing after 5 years of financial crisis, housing busts, horrible job market, etc.

Inflation was low, I'd finally found a fair employer at a decent salary, had bought a late model car (3 year old Acura) for about $25K, and my investments had recovered and were now growing again in the stock market. Housing was still modestly priced after the bubble crash, interest rates were low for buyers, but rent prices were doable, with plenty of inventory, too, for those not yet ready to buy.

And there were dozens of 2nd and 3rd tier cities in which any standard worker would be able to move to and likely obtain the "American Dream" of home ownership, a couple cars, etc.

Let's compare that to now:

My salary has grown by about 25% in absolute dollars (2-3% corporate raises don't add up so quickly). Meanwhile, I still own my 2010 car, and it would cost about $40K today to replace it with a similarly low-miled used one, or $50K+ if new. That's if I could even get one since it seems there is now a perpetual "chip shortage."

The same apartment I rented in 2014 would cost at least 50% more now, though probably closer to double with all the extra fees. The same starter homes I looked at then are double in absolute dollars, and at current 7%+ interest rates, might be closer to 3x as expensive per monthly payment. And this isn't just in places like NYC or Bay Area or Miami Beach. Once "cheap" cities like Phoenix and Nashville are now just as expensive, relative to salaries, as the over-crowded and desirable coastal areas were last generation.

Everything else is way MORE expensive, especially food. I eat out less. Food quality is generally lower or smaller portioned.

I take less vacations as airfare seems to have doubled in price in the last 5 years. And let's not even get into health insurance, which has also doubled in price since 2014 (I now have a $3K deductible with the same premium costs as before, thanks to Obamacare).

My retirement savings have lost over 1/3 of their value in the last year.

So Russians should know that it's not just them suffering. Most of us in the west have taken a 10% hit to standard of living in just the last 3 years, IMO.