HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

ayngg

1,420 karma · joined March 1, 2018

submissionscomments
ayngg··on US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
Ah ok, thanks for the clarification!
ayngg··on US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
IIRC they have already stopped purchasing them as of a week ago I think, they were supposed to announce their plans on quantitative tightening (selling the things they bought) which is what that quote is referring to.
ayngg··on Red Dwarfs Will Be Humanity’s Last Home Before the Universe Dies
It is hard for me to see a future where humanity lasts long enough for that to be a problem, while not possessing the technology required to address it. I would assume that at that point we would be creating universes to escape to or something else that is unimaginable today.
ayngg··on The magic of the Japanese convenience store sandwich
I never really thought the sandwiches were anything special, the real gem was the fried chicken, the Famichiki or its equivalent that the other places had. You could grab a couple onigiri and a famichiki for the price of a sandwich and it would be way more satisfying imo.
ayngg··on Lootboxes in FIFA now allowed by highest Dutch court
They have different formats that people play with varying amounts of sets being legal, one of the most popular formats is a casual format where almost every card printed is legal. Sure a lot of it becomes chaff, but it is not unusual for cards you buy to appreciate in value, or even gain a substantial amount of value when they become viable and popularized in decks or are enabled by new cards that are released.

The cards I played with decades ago when I was a kid in school have appreciated in value many multiples of times over.

ayngg··on Joro spiders likely to spread beyond Georgia
A couple years ago I was in Tokyo and even just going up Takaosan I could see the pathway up was surrounded by what looked like these guys everywhere, you could look up and see a bunch just floating on their webs above the trail. Even on such a well traveled path you could just graze the flora on the side and you would pick up some web threads.

The thought of just going slightly off the path and basically being covered by them made me shudder.

ayngg··on The new silent majority: People who don't tweet
I thought this was fairly well understood that these communities follow some sort of Pareto ratio where a minority of people churn out most of the content, or are responsible for sending content to the top of feeds. I recall reading about it with regards to Twitter and Reddit, and it probably applies in some form or another with every social network that allows for passive participants.
ayngg··on Cronje Quits Crypto, Abandons Fantom, Yearn Finance
The rates aren't that high, and for people that trade volatility, yes it can be insanely profitable.
ayngg··on YouTube suspends The Hill for playing clip of Trump denying election results
The point I was trying to make was that the argument that you can simply make your own social network is disingenuous and isn't the solution, the fact that Google has continuously failed to do that one thing is a testament to how difficult it is. Then in the case of censorship, you have to deal with being a persona non grata that socially conscious people and institutions won't touch, and that you need to build it in like a month before any political momentum gained dissipates and people move on. Even if you manage to succeed after all that, and get adoption, all you have done is manage to create the same type of platform that censored you in the first place, with the only difference being that it is your hivemind of your own beliefs.

If the problem is that people don't know how to talk to each other anymore, and that isn't solved by creating more insular communities.

ayngg··on YouTube suspends The Hill for playing clip of Trump denying election results
Based on what I have seen and what I have heard people say, the principle of freedom of speech is probably dead in the west. People will give their sanctimonious justifications like "it only means the government can't censor not us," "it's freedom of speech, not freedom from consequences," or misuse quotes like Popper's intolerance towards intolerance, or Schenck v. United States's yelling fire in a theater, but in reality the principle of free speech is a foundational social element from which the law is built upon, not the other way around. If society doesn't believe in freedom of speech then it doesn't matter if the government upholds that standard for itself anymore. If we as a society aren't capable of having empathy towards people who have differing opinions instead of dismissing them, then censoring them after ignoring them has caused their beliefs to radicalize to a point, that is the recipe for making politics more entrenched, polarized and escalated than they already are.

Yeah just go build your own platform they will say as if it had not been attempted numerous times only to be censored off every hosting/ payment/ app platforms they could use or hacked to have all the personal information of their users doxxed because they had "bad opinions." Even the ones that actually exist just become hiveminds of their own because they become populated by people who have been censored everywhere else, as if having every community devolve into hive minded safe spaces is actually desirable.

ayngg··on A Look at the Slow, Silent Death of America’s Middle Class
A lot of it is politicians chasing a golden age where everything lined up for American prosperity which we can't really return to. The postwar period had so many things going for America, everyone else was rebuilding or bankrupt, immigration was very low, the majority of global capital was USD, strong capital controls meant domestic investment which hindered outsourcing and de-industrialization and the monetary policy of the time was reacting to prewar era of massive unemployment that led to political instability in the world, so they focused heavily on full employment to maintain stability.

Focusing on full employment meant wage growth was persistent since it was always in high demand, which worked because it was paid for by the gains in innovation from those workers, and the rest of the world was catching up and created demand creating a cycle. The cycle eventually became unsustainable because at some point innovation gains could not keep up with inflation and the world became more competitive as everyone caught up. Labor had a lot of power in this regime but if it was not worth it for capital to invest since there was no return, they would stop investing because the scales of power tipped too far in the favor of labor, which led to unemployment and stagflation.

The response to this was to shift monetary policy towards taming inflation and creating price stability. The pendulum swung hard in the other direction against labor. Interest rates were jacked up and the financial system was liberalized to entice lending, women are entering the workforce and immigration is taking off and capital (and labor) was going international to where it got the greatest return. Inflation was crushed, the power of domestic labor was gutted but interest rates were still high, which led to the financialization of the economy because lending became so incredibly profitable. Everyone wanted money because they were previously credit starved, and everyone wanted to lend money because it was so profitable. Since price stability and taming inflation were the goals of policy and liberalized credit gave the gains that traditionally went to the working class to the developing world, wage stagnation was inevitable, which put a hard limit on growth unless growth was to be increasingly fueled by more debt. Inequality shifted dramatically because gains on capital were very high and gains in labor were very limited, and limited to those who interacted with the financialization of the economy (finance that ran the system, technology that innovated the system and the other industries that worked in tandem like big law).

This led to 2008 when everything was so levered that things started to fall apart, but instead of letting it fall apart, governments wanted to keep the sinking ship alive, and so central banks stepped in to provide the liquidity to keep things afloat. Keeping things afloat exacerbated the problems that the system perpetuated, only now it is being pushed to the extreme because the only way forward is even more debt which creates even more inequality which is where we are now where we have crushed interest rates to keep the party going and can barely raise them without blowing up the economy, and the rise of working class populist movements across the developed world.

This is basically a summary of a lecture given by Mark Blyth on the subject which can be seen here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJoe_daP0DE

ayngg··on Asian-Americans fight back against school discrimination
I feel like these affirmative action policies are attacking the wrong aspect of scholastic achievement that doesn't need to be addressed as urgently as other problems in the system. These policies benefit students that are already having some degree of success, but they don't help the students that really need help, the students that have serious trouble with their education like those described in [1]. Those students are basically pushed through via no child left behind and then graduate (or drop out) and immediately fall through the cracks of society into a poverty trap that is very difficult to escape without a real education, skills or opportunity. I think this is the place where the most gains are possible which can then lay the foundation for improving communities that seem perpetually stuck in poverty. In comparison, those getting into a top institution via AA would most likely experience some degree of success even if AA didn't exist.

For those that benefit from AA to get into elite institutions, this can paradoxically end up being harmful as they are often thrown into the deep end where they have to compete with peers that are the brightest in the world since they have had to go through all of the supplementary development necessary to compete with the best of the best to get accepted [2].

[1] https://foxbaltimore.com/news/project-baltimore/city-student... [2] https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2012/10/the-pai...

ayngg··on Tell HN: If You Are in Russia
If someone feels like they are losing either way (through words or conflict), making everyone lose through conflict instead of just them might not seems so bad. For the most part, people in western developed nations are sheltered from the fact that most of the world lives under much less secure circumstances, where things can fall apart very quickly. Even in the privileged world of developed nations, it doesn't take much to see the soft white underbelly of humanity that exists alongside us but is often ignored. Power and politics rarely align incentives in ways where everyone benefits equally.
ayngg··on Ask HN: Is anyone else genuinely scared that this is the start of WW3?
I sort of view it this way too, news media is having a collective orgasm over the bonanza of fear porn they have been hyping up for over a month now. Social media has also taken and ran with it, the front page of reddit is plastered with anecdotes, speculation and armchair geopolitical discussions of people trying to rationalize something they don't quite understand.

At the end of the day, Russia isn't this big bad world power that is capable of starting a war on a global scale, they are a declining power that also happens to have a lot of nukes. So realistically the most they can do is limited to what they are doing now, which won't start a world war and will most likely conclude in a way that causes no change to the lives of most people outside of the affected region. On the extremely small chance that they do go nuclear, worrying about it is pointless since it will change society so dramatically that there simply would be no way to prepare for it. Its like how you don't worry about getting hit by a car and becoming a paraplegic in your day to day life.

ayngg··on With Activation of NATO Response Force, U.S. Military Ready to Provide Forces
If everyone involved oversaw the escalation to where it is now, they certainly have it in them to escalate it much further.
ayngg··on Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4
I don't think it is either or, NATO is just a symbol for western alignment which reaches the same ends you describe. Beyond whatever foundational context, the three conflicts related the Ukraine and Georgia were precipitated by this (specifically most recently with the Brussels summit in 2021) which suggests it is a very definitive line in the sand, regardless of whether or not it is the actual reasoning. This is the third time the west has tested that line, it is the third time Russia has responded in this way, and it will most likely be the third time the West does nothing but implement sanctions because it isn't as important to them as it is to Russia.

This isn't a justification for actions, it is about understanding the situation through the chaos.

ayngg··on Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4
This is happening because the west has no leverage and asymmetrical priorities. Russia -really- cares that Ukraine stays out of NATO, probably to the point where they would scorched earth the country before it joined, and the west only kinda cares about Ukraine comparatively, as demonstrated in 2014 and 2008. If they actually really care, sanctions don't mean much.

Makes me wonder why the west thought the third time would be the charm in this case. A big difference may be domestic politics in the west, things are pretty tenuous both socially and economically, which could benefit from this grandstanding far from home.

ayngg··on Convoy Crackdown – power to freeze bank accounts without trial or legal recourse
On the contrary, I feel like the pandemic has revealed the fragility and asymmetric distribution of costs in our society, and the governments unwillingness to even address it. I do not consider democracy in danger, but there are some pretty serious precedents being set.

I suspect Canadians aren't concerned because for the most part Canadians have lived a very comfortable existence for a very long time due to the nature of our geopolitical privileges. I think the hyperbole tossed around regarding the convoy and blockade illustrate this.

ayngg··on Convoy Crackdown – power to freeze bank accounts without trial or legal recourse
I consider the worst part to be that many Canadians (particularly the educated) seem to be fine this is happening, or even openly advocating for it. This more than anything else makes me very concerned about how Canada navigates the next little while.
ayngg··on I was wrong, we need crypto
I wonder if the chaotic noise dominates social awareness because people are simply unaware of the macro trends influencing them, or the more charitable explanation that they are aware they exist but accept they are helpless to change them. Either way, this entire ordeal has basically solidified my position that as a society we are woefully unequipped to solve any of the major problems that threaten us.

People are so preoccupied with the audacity of x doing y that dominates the news cycle, but nobody seems to actually care why x is doing y. They just slap some shallow explanation like they are white supremacists, or they are mad George Floyd was killed because of police brutality and consider that level of understanding to be satisfactory while simultaneously being concerned about how increasingly divided, populist and radicalized western society is becoming.

ayngg··on Francis Ford Coppola’s $100M Dollar Bet
Streaming has hollowed out the non-blockbuster market, so studios need to quite literally go big or go home. Going big means the movie needs to have spectacle that brings people to the theater, which generally means huge cgi budgets that tv series could never replicate on a per frame basis. Superhero movies (and remakes) are exploiting preexisting social capital of franchises to be as successful as they are, otherwise it is really difficult to justify dropping hundreds of millions of dollars on producing and marketing a blockbuster spectacle nobody has ever heard of when marvel and other studios are dropping movies with familiar and popular IP constantly.
ayngg··on Study findings do not support the use of ivermectin for patients with Covid-19
I think the difference is that in places where ivermectin had efficacy (India, Sub Saharan Africa, South America), parasitic infection was a significant comorbidity. In much of the developed world, the most significant comorbidities are things like obesity and age (with all of its associated pulmonary and respiratory risks).
ayngg··on More than half of Bitcoin investors are in the red, study says
The article looks like some kind of ad for 21shares, which isn't even primarily an on chain analytics firm. I assume it is looking at on chain data for liquid btc to see what percentage of that is currently being held at a price lower than when it was last transacted.
ayngg··on Are Today’s Portraitists Better Than the Old Masters?
At the time of the shift away from traditional fine art, there was a big shift in how art was marketed and style itself probably did not have as much influence as people think.

Academy art was very expensive because it took a long time to make (so artists only made a hand full of work), and there were fewer artists at that level because it took so much training to get to the level of a Bouguereau or Sargent. Up until this point the people buying this kind of art were wealthy or powerful enough to afford it.

At the turn of the century, there was an increased demand of art from the new burgeoning middle class, however there simply was not enough supply, and it was all expensive academy art. Because of this, art dealers were incentivized to promote impressionists because they were already academy rejects so they were outsiders with chips on their shoulders, and the work they did was by design easier and quicker to make, so they were able to produce way more art that dealers could sell to the middle class who were less discerning than the traditional art world.

The new mass market ended up being far more profitable for dealers, the demographic so much larger, that it really just drove what kind of art was created and marketed afterwards. Bouguereau died at 80 and made less than a thousand works over his lifetime, Picasso made tens of thousands. Picasso's true genius is in his ability to produce and market his works.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9G8UfISpb0I

ayngg··on $256M in ETH stolen from cross-chain protocol Wormhole
https://ethereum.org/en/community/online/

Did a google search and also searches on ethereum and ethdev subreddits listed as part of the community, the stack exchange and research board from the link above. There were a couple legitimate discussions about it, none of which really came across as described by the OP.

I did do a search on twitter and also greater reddit, but those posts were in the same vein as wallstreetbets memestock investor posts which I assume people aren't using to base their opinion on this subject.

ayngg··on $256M in ETH stolen from cross-chain protocol Wormhole
Just from a cursory search, nobody has really talked about "code is law" on ethereum for many years now since the dao thing, the only people who are zealous about that are using ethereum classic. In my experience, its become a sort of meme that people parrot whenever something like this happens.

Unless you are talking about cryptobros on twitter or something, but I don't think anyone considers what they say important.

ayngg··on Sony to buy video game maker Bungie in $3.6B deal
Yeah I think people overstate the IP of Actiblizz. I get it though, their old games were absolutely amazing and I basically spent my childhood playing those games to death, but modern gaming is so much bigger that the people who look at those old ips fondly are a small minority now, so there isn't really any nostalgia to cash in on. I remember on the news when they did a story on the merger, they called Actiblizz the studio that made Candy Crush. Candy Crush is their most salient IP. Similarly Gen z growing up on games like Fortnite, Roblox or Minecraft, even Actiblizz's Call of Duty, this demographic isn't going to go crazy for the next Starcraft or Warcraft, probably not even Diablo.

It is sort of like if Valve actually made Half Life 3 now, most gamers don't even know what Half Life is, let alone why Half Life 3 would be such a big deal outside of being a meme.

ayngg··on Former nuclear leaders: Say ‘no’ to new reactors
I don't think there ever was another solution.

Climate change policy will always incur asymmetrical costs, and the people who it effects wouldn't willingly enact them, and others would rarely share that burden in a meaningful way. Outside of innovation, any other policy will most likely incur economic cost which politicians are hesitant to do, especially now with how stretched lower classes are.

I think the only way out is to make non hydrocarbon based energy production cheaper and as dependable as hydrocarbons.

ayngg··on Malls adding apartments to offset dwindling numbers of shoppers
The way it is done in Hong Kong (and other Asian cities like Tokyo to an extent) feels way closer to town centers that predate cars, where there is a lot of foot traffic and walkability which imo makes such a better experience.

I just think in America it is too car centric and not dense enough to line the incentives up for it to happen here. Land is cheap enough that malls will just build outwards and create giant moats of parking lots around them to kill walkability, and public transit ridership is too low because everyone is driving cars so service can never reach the standards in Asia. Its a shame because feels so much worse than what has been achieved in Hong Kong.

ayngg··on Society has a trust problem. More censorship will only make it worse
Interesting, what sort of studies should I look into if I wanted to look into this?
← PreviousPage 3 of 7Next →