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Comment by ayngg | Hacker News Reader

This is happening because the west has no leverage and asymmetrical priorities. Russia -really- cares that Ukraine stays out of NATO, probably to the point where they would scorched earth the country before it joined, and the west only kinda cares about Ukraine comparatively, as demonstrated in 2014 and 2008. If they actually really care, sanctions don't mean much.

Makes me wonder why the west thought the third time would be the charm in this case. A big difference may be domestic politics in the west, things are pretty tenuous both socially and economically, which could benefit from this grandstanding far from home.

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Russia does not care about Ukraine joining NATO, Russia has nukes.

Russian politicians care about Ukraine being a prospering democracy and a model for russian citizens. That's it.

In order to use nukes effectively, you need to have second strike capabilities. You know, the 'M' in 'MAD'.

Ukraine in NATO means US nukes on Russia border, tipping the balance. It would be similar to Russia placing their bases and weapons into Canada or Mexico.

> Ukraine in NATO means US nukes on Russia border, tipping the balance.

No, it does not. A number of Eastern European countries are in NATO and none of them have American nuclear weapons.

Where does this silly idea come that after joining NATO, American missiles somehow appear in the new member? Modern-day NATO is a cooperation platform for joint exercises etc, not some missile club that starts delivering ICBMs every month.

> No, it does not. A number of Eastern Europe countries are in NATO and none of them have American nuclear weapons.

Yet. There were murmurs about moving them from Germany to Eastern Europe.

Additionally - US has DCAs (Defense Cooperation Agreement; straightly bilateral, nothing to do with NATO) with most EE countries. Nobody knows, what they brought there, US is certainly not telling anyone. The nukes might be already there.

There are no ICBMS in Germany only tactical bombs... these have no military value, there only value is to say that European countries have shared nuclear deterrence.

And Russia is big, they have an immense second strike capability from land and from the sea. Wladiwostok is 8000km away from Kiev.

Strictly speaking, US doesn't need ICBMs in Europe, would be ineffective there... just enough weaponry to prevent Russia to use theirs for retaliation.

I agree with your sentiment, but to say that a weapon capable of creating a Coloseum-sized crater has "no military value" seems a bit off.

On the other hand i cannot think of a critical role played by ICBM's in Central Europe, could your share some insights?

It has no military value because it's unthinkable to use them. Unlike strategic weapons of deterrence which are exactly meant to prevent unthinkable scenarios. We have them so the other side won't use theirs.

Tactical weapons are not deterrence but actually meant to be used. Nobody will use a tactical nuke for the can of worms it represents. Whatever target can be found for a tactical weapon, it's not important enough to justify a nuke and basically start WW3.. They're a leftover of 50/60s doctrine.

I wonder why they are considering moving those? Hmm? You should be ashamed of parroting Russian propaganda at this time.

It is just you, who uses aggressive, emotive rhetoric in multiple comments in this thread ("parroting Russian propaganda").

Please engage based on arguments, and do not do personal attacks even if you don't like them.

> Where does this silly idea come that after joining NATO, American missiles somehow appear in the new member?

It is not silly idea, it is Russian misinformation. "The corrupt fascist gay West we are under constant attack by wants to put army on our borders," except in nicer words.

They have discussed putting nuclear missiles in Sweden, who isn’t even a member. Plus the US has already been arming Ukraine, hasn’t it?

And? Russia put them in Cuba, and later got them out.

Russia could have asked for this guarantee if it really cared about, it wasn't even a topic of discussion.

Ukraine had nukes and gave them up. Nukes in Ukraine would be such a ridiculous topic that Putin didn't even dare to bring up.

> Russia could have asked for this guarantee if it really cared about

They did exactly that, only to be ignored, and denied that they could even ask for it.

> it wasn't even a topic of discussion.

Whaaat? It is public, you won't have any trouble to find it.

> Ukraine had nukes and gave them up.

Soviet Union had nukes, not Ukraine.

Not sure what you mean. I'm just saying that obviously if Ukraine joined Nato, they would get (even more) missiles. The US has been arming Ukraine for a long time already, to the tune of hundreds of millions every year.

Trump's first impeachment was related exactly to this.

But when a country has joined NATO, it can later declare it will host nuclear weapons loaned from other NATO countries.

Russia is powerless to stop this, since any attack on a NATO country would likely trigger a counterattack.

Hence, instead, Russia must prevent these countries joining if they want to ensure no nukes on their border.

Russia is already bordered by multiple NATO countries. You should not be parroting Kremlin talking points at this time.

> Russia is already bordered by multiple NATO countries

And they aren't happy about it. At the time, they weren't in a position to do much about it though.

The risk of NATO using nukes first is 0.

For that to happen they would have to first turn into a tyranical shithole like Russia where an impotent old man can do as he pleases.

They don't start with nukes. They first murder journalists, bomb their own appartments, poison opposition leaders.

They only country in the world which is remotely close to doing a first strike is Russia, and perhaps North Korea.

> Russia is powerless to stop this, since any attack on a NATO country would likely trigger a counterattack.

This is a game of “who blinks first”. I doubt normally US would use nukes to defend a tiny unimportant country like Latvia or Slovenia, if under attack. Russia knows this too.

Someone crazy like Trump just might, though.

And a way to achieve this is to make friends with your neighbours and enter mutual beneficial treaties....

Or you can just beat them up any time they look at other options.

The whole point about ICBM is that you can send them within minutes from anywhere on the planet.

There is nothing threatening about a country joining a defense alliance.

I would go further and suggest Putin's latest move made deployment of ICBMs somewhere like Estonia (which could theoretically have hosted them since the 90s) more likely, not less.

> Modern-day NATO is a cooperation platform for joint exercises etc, not some missile club that starts delivering ICBMs every month.

Say that to Libya or Yugoslavia that were attacked. NATO is not exactly just a "defensive agreement" as is being currently propagandized.

It's Ukraine's choice to do whatever they want.

Likewise, it was Cuba's choice to place soviet nukes where they want. However, that led to a crisis here.

Yes, I remember how US tried to bomb Cuba and annex it as a territory.

You missed the entire Cuban crisis and how the world was seconds away from WW3? We all would not comment here if Cubans would take 'can place nukes where they want' literally.

Ygoslavia deserved every last bomb it received, they were doing ethnic clensing, ffs.

So do not spread that NATO is just a defensive agreement. Say the truth: that it is a military agreement that can act offensively and aggressively without UN support based on geopolitical interests after exaggerating the situation in the news. About this: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/aug/18/balkans3

Nuclear submarines are there to launch from as close to the coasts of the enemy as possible. Land bases are nice to have but not so important for ICBMs.

A historic example might be placing rockets in Cuba. iirc, that didn't go through smoothly with the U.S.and resulted in a small crises

And Turkey, do not forget Turkey. Cuba was the Soviet response.

Why not Ukrainian nukes then? Ukraine is the post-nuclear country. USA nukes on territory of Ukraine breaks the deal.

Russian oligarchs care about borders, trade routes, and cargo ships. It's about money and power. Russia obviously doesn't give a rat's ass about democracy, they have their population locked up tight.

They expect to move in, battle, secure new territory, deal with stern blabber and a slap on the wrist, and it'll be back to business as usual, with slightly higher profit margins.

Russian oligarchs don't make their money by trade and cargo.

Lol.

Russian oligarchs make their money by robbing Russia and russians. They want to continue undisturbed.

The hate Ukraine for its freedoms?

Not hate, fear. (IF OP's assertion is valid).

No, they hate all the states that were under their influence and that later joined NATO and EU for leaving them in the dust. Ukraine prospering would be too much for Putin, it would expose his crooked path that he steered Russia.

Russia would be way ahead of Poland had Putin not taken power and made Russia an mafia-oil state.

It was a Bush related joke. But regarding what you wrote, Ukraine prospering doesn't seem very likely, it's much more corrupt than even Russia. Their GDP per capita is a third of Russia's, despite also having a wealth of raw materials.

So that's not the issue. The Baltic states have prospered, and joined Nato for that matter.

The problem is that Ukraine is a huge country with a pretty large population, plus it has very deep historical ties with Russia, so it's probably a bit of that too, losing ones brother to the enemy would hurt.

There is no a lot of democracy in UA. Literally all opposition were shut down or applied sanction. No media other then telegram can work free. There is a big corruption on every level.

I dont like Russia or want them been there. But there is no such thing as single united Ukraine. Saying this is literally a crime and "putin propaganda"

There is and there could have been democracy and prosperity like in ALL, ALL of ex-soviet states that joined NATO and EU. All of those countries make Russia look like a shithole. That's what got Putin so enraged.

NATO is a security guarantee without which there can be no foreign investment in this part of the world.

Ukraine wasn't going to be accepted into NATO anyway. They asked. Weren't accepted. Ukraine knows this, Russia knows this, NATO countries know this. It's just Russian excuse for propaganda reasons.

The real reason is that Russians consider Ukrainians "the same nation" and if Ukrainians entered EU or some sort of association with it, and got richer than Russians like Poles, Slovaks, Czechs, Balts etc. - it would be very bad for Putin approval in Russia. Russians would start to think "it could be us", "it could work without the tyranny".

So Putin can't let westernized, wealthy Ukraine to exist. Same reason he helped Lukashenko to stop revolution in Belarus recently.

The rest ("history" lectures, "NATO is encroaching", "Ukrainians are nazis and bombard Russian speakers in Ukraine") - it's just bullshit excuses. Don'r repeat them, please. You are helping an aggressive nationalist dictatorship murder people by accepting their excuses.

Here's a 2022 The Atlantic article suggesting the same:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukra...

And a 2014 blog post also suggesting the same:

https://skibinsky.com/no-russian/

I don't think it is either or, NATO is just a symbol for western alignment which reaches the same ends you describe. Beyond whatever foundational context, the three conflicts related the Ukraine and Georgia were precipitated by this (specifically most recently with the Brussels summit in 2021) which suggests it is a very definitive line in the sand, regardless of whether or not it is the actual reasoning. This is the third time the west has tested that line, it is the third time Russia has responded in this way, and it will most likely be the third time the West does nothing but implement sanctions because it isn't as important to them as it is to Russia.

This isn't a justification for actions, it is about understanding the situation through the chaos.

> Makes me wonder why the west thought the third time would be the charm in this case

Ignorance and arrogance, but mostly arrogance.

Yeah no. I'm sorry for Ukraine but how many people are willing to die over it? War was never on the table and Putin knew it so he acted.

> I'm sorry for Ukraine but how many people are willing to die over it?

Millions of Ukrainians. That is going to be the real tragedy.

True. And Russians as well. My sympathies are with the little guy and they will pay the price.

Putin said the Ukraine is not a real nation, so we can rest the whole nato nonsense.

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