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avs733

5,626 karma · joined October 6, 2015

ex semiconductor engineer, social science researcher, entrepreneurship researcher, quantitative geek, serial founder, engineering professor.
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avs733··on The SR-71 Blackbird Astro-Nav System worked by tracking the stars
Other funny note…for all the Silicon Valley folk on HN…the trident missles the US uses on submarines are built in Sunnyvale.

I’m imaging most on here have read some/all of the secret history of Silicon Valley posts, but if you haven’t they are great

avs733··on The SR-71 Blackbird Astro-Nav System worked by tracking the stars
Yup. But that’s based on knowing where the silo is, they are less mobile than subs (or trucks or trains). The alignment is all based on dead reckoning from where it started to where it’s going to know where it is, where it wants to be, and how to steer there.
avs733··on The SR-71 Blackbird Astro-Nav System worked by tracking the stars
They have a range in the Atlantic, it’s used for launches from the Atlantic…the French do similar things

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/34043/france-just-test...

Generally the logic is don’t launch on trajectories over land unless you have to. I believe all of the land based is ICBMs are still tested from vandenberg on the (most beautiful section of) California coast near Lompoc for the same reason. Vandenberg doesn’t have any deployed ICBMs, they all fly to kwaj for testing. Same reason nasa/spacex/seemingly everyone but China make it a goal to not have launches go over populated areas.

avs733··on The SR-71 Blackbird Astro-Nav System worked by tracking the stars
As I understood it yes. The ability to disarm the other side at will, and prevent any retaliation against cities, was seen as an more offensive capacity
avs733··on The SR-71 Blackbird Astro-Nav System worked by tracking the stars
This is the citation I should have provided and completely forgot to.

The most interesting boring book I’ve ever read.

avs733··on The SR-71 Blackbird Astro-Nav System worked by tracking the stars
As far as I’m aware test shots of both us Air Force and navy icbms off the west coast went to Kwajalein atoll.

Some other interesting details…

Naval icbms have star tracking for alignment and correction but land based ones do not.

The reasoning is that they are all dead reckoning…which requires knowing the initial location. The silo doesn’t move, but the subs do. Their location is tracked with another inertial guidance system but that adds error, so they use the star tracking.

Overall, the inertial navigation systems in modern icbms are not the limited in accuracy.

My favorite…there was a lot of pushback inside the us military on investing in increasing the accuracy of naval ICBMs. Doing so was seen as communicating/implying a shift in strategic goal from targeting cities (lower required accuracy) to targeting hardened facilities (higher required accuracy). That was seen as confrontational because sun based nuclear weapons had been generally treated as a second strike capability, but the primary reason to have the ability to target hardened facilities was for a first strike

avs733··on America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it
> I would like to apologize on behalf of other ycombo users for your top comment being downvoted, and also for people calling workers "oxen".

I appreciate it but no need - the people doing that (typically) are as much victims of this propaganda. They aren't malicious, they have been learned the same culture we're talking about.

Funny enough, the first place I ever interned had attempted to do a lights out factory in the 1980s. Short term, it was a disaster - in part because they literally had not installed sufficient lighting to trouble shoot problems, push automated transfer vehicles back onto control strips, and pry parts apart. The machining centers of the era could do the quality but required experts to operate, monitor, and adjust. When things went wrong they weren't small anymore, they were destructive and shut down production for 12+ hours. The shift had been made in part to leverage concessions from the workforce, and (IMHO) as a result it disregarded all the tacit skills those employees used to keep the place running. Long term, They ended up with higher quality, faster throughput, but more employees. But, it cost them a lot and they needed more employees to move stuff around the factory because they had built this huge space to do lights out and the irredeemable piece of lights out was material movement and handling. What I learned was that robots and machines can't tell you what went wrong - no matter how much you log.

I've got a ton of other examples. Every factory I've worked in I've learned how much of a myth 'low skilled labor' is. On the floor, in every factory, new hires were useless - which is a pretty definitive marker of 'skilled labor'. Same thing in the military - senior NCOs are often critical mentors to new LTs. As an engineer I've typically learned as much from the technicians and operators as from the other engineers. At each, I've also worked with really smart engineers who were terrible at their job because they had been socialized that their intelligence was all they needed and there was no need to learn from the 'floor guys'. Roger Smith (and Elon) thought engineers could make the transition to lights out with their knowledge alone because they had bought into the same narrative about blue collar work be low skill and low intelligence. The result was concerns about air friction on robots but not tolerance stack up of stampings or repairable castings.

The problem is, until you really engage with it, the narrative descriptions of certain work we get from the media and economists become a lens for making sense of reality. I'm not immune from that, I just had it beaten out of me. Oxen aren't stupid either, they're still really useful in situations where tractors struggle.

avs733··on America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it
I don’t think it was the goal as much as a biproduct. This article hits the same cultural problem…all this discussion of actions by the capitalist and ruling classes, by companies and governments. The simple solutions of respecting people are so incomprehensible as to be not even discussed.
avs733··on America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it
I wanted a sports car as a teenagers and my parents gave me a minivan. It wasn’t what I wanted but it’s likely the reason I’m alive today.

The point of governance to some extent is dealing with the tension between what competing groups of people say they want and actually need

avs733··on America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it
I would caution you against assuming disagreement is misunderstanding,

A spring only suspension system responds quickly to a bump in the road. If that’s your only metric, it’s good. But a car without a damper is going to be hella uncomfortable. The shock makes it respond slower - it doesn’t mean it doesn’t respond.

avs733··on America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it
Personally I see this as a better option than the one from the dead comment below. We can argue about rules begetting culture or culture begetting rules, I think there is some back and forth and one set of changes is concrete.
avs733··on America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it
because what they are talking about is the workforce. Treat your workforce like cogs, like oxen, and guess what thats what you get even when you find out quite some time later that you actually need something else. The contrast of these two quotes in the article makes the point

> "Mass production technologies and the division of labor created a workforce consisting of relatively unskilled employees on the line combined with a smaller group of highly skilled workers and the engineering teams that designed it."

> "Japanese producers pursued precision production, just-in-time production, quality built into all production stages (not just at the end), continuous improvements by the entire workforce, and collaborative labor practices, all of which led to dramatically increased efficiencies and quality."

One (Ford) seeks to deskill its workforce in the name of efficiency because they see their opinions as irrelevant because they are not the capital class. One (Toyota) seeks their input as valuable specifically because they are the ones doing the work.

I've worked in both types of factories as an engineer. BOTH sought to apply the principles of lean manufacturing to build efficiency. It only worked in one of them, the one with a culture of treating factory staff with respect. In the one where management and engineering looked down on the employees they didn't listen for efficiency opportunities they only looked for them themselves, they presumed the unskilled workforce provided nothing. Funny enough - that plant couldn't attract better quality employees.

The articles has an entire section dedicated to workforce education...great! but as with all post secondary education in our modern society, the participants are (in large part) motivated by the economic potential of that pursuit. If I can make the same working at starbucks (with benefits because employer scale) as I can as an electrical tradesperson (yes, there are levels but not all are union) why would I pick the one that destroys my body? Why bother with workforce education if your leaders don't respect their work and will seek to Taylorize them instead of partner with them. Apprenticeship and training works in Germany and Japan because the jobs are not awful. It works because of the culture of work. I would argue this is actually the same reason we lag in another marker the article talks about - robots per worker.

avs733··on America's advanced manufacturing problem and how to fix it
Or maybe just treat blue collar workers better? And enshrine such treatment into law so this doesn’t happen again.

That would seem to be simpler

avs733··on Credit card debt collection
I'll provide an example...while heavily medicated after breaking both of my legs I signed something on an Ipad, once. I asked for a copy and they weren't able to provide me one. After more than a dozen phone calls I was finally able to get a copy. But that involved figuring out whether it was the company that rented me the wheelchair, the company that billed me, the company that billed my insurance, or the company that owned all of those companies. They provided me three documents I had signed with not the same signature on them. Then when I asked them to pickup the 'rental' that they never told me was a rental, it took five phone calls and over two weeks (during which time they billed me and my insurance for another month of renal). They finally came and picked it up within three hours when I had the news reporter who covered my accident get in touch with the CEO's office.

I reported all this, with call recordings, logs, notes, etc. to my insurance's fraud hotline and they closed the file without doing anything.

Much of health care in the US is wrapped in a blanket of outright fraud. You can't agree to be a victim of fraud. Until I get to charge them for the time I spend correcting their billing mistakes I am totally fine deciding what bill is appropriate and what bill is not on my own.

avs733··on Dennis Austin, developer of PowerPoint, has died
the ability to drag and drop rearrange, and the ability to have a header and then just body text is really useful for lots of mockups. I think at this point, I've used powerpoint (or equivalent) in place of at least:

* word processing software * CAD software * pretty much everything adobe * Xcode * photo software

and there are probably other's

avs733··on Chrome now tracks users and shares a “topic” list with advertisers
Years ago I remember having a very similar reaction to many online platforms switch to https. It was pitched as protecting people from isp packet based ads but it always felt more motivated by locking the competition out of the data stream
avs733··on Ask HN: How to handle Asian-style “Family name first” when designing interfaces?
> It's sort of a big deal in academia and some percentage of other people feel pretty attached to the title.

Having been yelled at by colleagues for opting to not include Dr. on my own freaking business cards - here here.

avs733··on ‘San Francisco changed dramatically’ – Nordstrom is bailing on a flagship store
to add - the scapegoat here is also particularly useful to take attention away from consumer changes that would effect to operate expensive retail properties.

Not saying it is one or the other, just that nordstrom would be particularly motivated to shift blame because of what the alternative says about their broader business model. So maybe not taking them at their word.

That being said, i'll note that I'm SHOCKED how normalized shoplifting has become not just among 'the criminal element' but among my social set which is decidedly not your typical criminals. Stealing, especially from self checkouts, is increasingly openly discussed in my experience - and generally framed as 'its them paying me for doing their job of checking me out' or 'countering inflation/corporate greed'. Whether I agree with the morality of it or not and juts note that it is increasingly normalized. More broadly, I struggle with feeling sorry for corporations when the public lives under a never ending stream of abuse from corporate policies and control (c.f., everything being a subscription).

avs733··on SeaGlass: City-Wide IMSI-Catcher Detection (2017)
Thank you…this seems to actually support the point that’s all I really care about
avs733··on SeaGlass: City-Wide IMSI-Catcher Detection (2017)
Because he stated it and used a citation to support it.

I’m entirely agnostic to what the claim is, what ideology it supports, or even whether or not it’s true.

You use a citation to increase the credibility of you claim or argument. If the citation doesn’t actually say what you said that is a problem.

If I said aliens are real here is proof and cite a lasagna recipe that’s a problem

avs733··on SeaGlass: City-Wide IMSI-Catcher Detection (2017)
I read that entire article and nowhere does it say they give them phones.

The entire article is about installing an app on their personal phones.

avs733··on Architecture diagrams enable better conversations
In my prior experience (inside and outside of software, anything having to do with a process) I think there is another situation where diagrams are enablers that they missed. Finding consensus on how the thing currently works.

When these issues are takled about in words, through code, through hand waving whatever - I have experienced that the details often mask ensuring that everyone is on the same basic page. Often when there has been confusion it has taken someone pulling the group back and noting that 'Bob things A is connected to B and then connected to D but Alice thinks A connects to C before connecting to D"

Just putting a architecture diagram of a process up helps find shared understanding.

avs733··on Conferences are inadvertently excluding many attendees from foreign countries
The grandparent comment is referring specifically to campuses (there are a few) who have nuclear research reactors
avs733··on California needs real math education, not gimmicks
As someone with a PhD in education, anytime someone uses the phrase “real education” as an attack on new approaches to teaching and learning, it’s a gigantic red flag that their argument is unserious.
avs733··on The industry behind the industry behind AI
I’ll add an odd tertiary problem HN folks might find interesting.

It is becoming increasingly common for “undergraduate research opportunities” to in fact just be a job annotating data. Researchers need some custom annotated dataset. Undergraduates want “research experience”. So researchers offer an opportunity to undergrads who think they will be doing meaningful research but instead are just mechanical turkers. No pay, perhaps a promise of research credit later…

It’s disingenuous to students but also disingenuous to companies looking for some meaningful research experience on resumes that list it.

avs733··on The Bathyscaph Trieste: Technological and Operational Aspects (1962)
ultrasound works quite well as well - but no NRE technique is perfect

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7503374/

avs733··on Tech vendors have been hiking prices by up to 24% amid inflation
alongside the narrative of a recession (and layoffs) that seems to remain perpetually on the horizon...if any meaningful resistance begins to emerge
avs733··on Blocked from Amazon Alexa for a week after racism accusation by delivery driver
But it generates angry clicks!
avs733··on Reddit is OpenAI’s moat
> When I worked in networking, and later web dev work I found Reddit to be a TERRIBLE place for Q & A type situations.

Training in this sense is about how people use language not what is the right answer. Among other sources - the exact thing you describe is a contributor to some of the things within the (in my opinion misnamed) internal taxonomy of 'hallucinations'.

Right or wrong - reddit is human beings using (mostly english) language to speak to each other, and so if you want to train an ML model to do that - its a great source.

avs733··on Open source hospital price database
A group of students I mentor have been working on the reverse version of this startup actually...towards this very idea.

They are trying to figure out how to have people submit their bills and gather actual billing data and compare what actually happens with what is claimed. Gives them a better data set for comparison and evaluation and to spot 'oddities'. I imagine health insurance does the same thing...but its opaque and invisible to consumers.

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