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asmithmd1

3,741 karma · joined March 19, 2008

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asmithmd1··on The US Is a Banana Republic: The 1% Own More Wealth Than the Entire Middle Class
Mitt Romney pointed out that he paid a lower tax rate than his secretary. Ultra high income individuals may pay more In dollars, but since much of their income is passive, they pay at a lower rate.
asmithmd1··on Senior developers are leading the great resignation movement
The author did not mention another contributing factor that let people quit jobs - the Affordable Care Act. Before it was passed you could not buy health insurance at any price if you had a pre-existing condition. Even with good health, insurance was prohibitively expense if you were not in some kind of group.
asmithmd1··on NASA's James Webb Space Telescope Launch Delayed to December
There are about 50 deployment actions that have to occur. If everything works perfectly, great. But if something hangs up or gets tangled, the people running the mission are blind when trying to debug the problem
asmithmd1··on James Webb Space Telescope launch media kit [pdf]
Yes I accept, but how about a definition of delivering a picture better than what is currently available?

I really want the Webb to work and would like this bet to somehow hedge my happiness. I would be happy to pay $1000 if it somehow contributed to future missions like this one being successful. Is there somewhere that money would do some good? Likewise $100 is not going to move the needle off the peg of how disappointed I will be.

What do you think about the money going to: https://www.planetary.org/ In the winners name?

asmithmd1··on NASA's James Webb Space Telescope Launch Delayed to December
My thinking is the solar shield gets stuck/torn on deployment. Among the numerous bad decisions, they have no cameras watching the deployment
asmithmd1··on James Webb Space Telescope launch media kit [pdf]
I am not sure how you know what my intuitions are. My insights come from reading the "design trades" papers about Webb published over the last 20 years.

Here is a good place to start: https://www.spiedigitallibrary.org/journals/Journal-of-Astro...

Yes, insulating an RTG from the IR sensors would have been a challenge, but one that could be completely and accurately tested on earth. The lack of sufficient power directly drove the passive cooling requirement. Which in turn drove the fraught 5 layer shield requirement - which has never been and can't be "Test as you fly" tested on earth.

The lack of power also drove the decision to use the experimental 26 Ghz Ka band downlink radio instead of a higher power and more robust X band radio.

asmithmd1··on James Webb Space Telescope launch media kit [pdf]
The opposite is true. Hubble is a stripped down version of a Keyhole spy satellite that was already in production. One of the major repairs (replace solar panels) was required because of long duration exposures used in astronomy that are not used in spying.

Remember that Hubble was essentially useless until heroically repaired the first time by Story Musgrave. Many subsequent repairs were required to get the best pictures from it - like the deep field, long duration picture.

asmithmd1··on James Webb Space Telescope launch media kit [pdf]
The problem comes down to diffuse leadership. The mars lander sky crane was a crazy idea. The head of JPL raised his hand in one of the early design reviews and said so, then drilled down into why it was a reasonable solution and how they would "Test Like You Fly".

The sunshield is a crazy idea and no one challenged it. Even worse, it is impossible to test it on earth. Just about every (partial) test of the shield has revealed problems that have been patched instead of starting over. If they had made the Webb telescope nuclear powered, many problems would go away - including deploying a 5 layer, experimental sun shield.

asmithmd1··on James Webb Space Telescope launch media kit [pdf]
The original sin is the lack of will to make the Webb nuclear powered. Since it is solar powered, it has to be in the sun. Since it has to be in the sun, it needs a huge shield. Since it is solar powered, it must be passively cooled to save power. Since it is passively cooled, it needs the science experiment - 5 layer shield deployed with 50 different pulleys, cables, telescoping poles and who knows what else.

The power limit also requires that science data be downloaded with an experimental 26Ghz radio that only the three 100' diameter Deep Space Network dishes can receive. The projected science data download will require using the DSN for 8 hours a day, everyday for 5-10 years.

They should have started over using nuclear power and then they would have had a chance.

asmithmd1··on James Webb Space Telescope launch media kit [pdf]
I have not gotten any offers to take the other side of my 10:1 offer...
asmithmd1··on James Webb Space Telescope launch media kit [pdf]
I have been following this project for years and it has had one embarrassing mis-step after another. Here is the last independent review board assessment from 2018 where they found over 300 single points of failure that would doom the telescope:

https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/webb_ir...

To name a couple other problem spots: They have trouble getting the shield to deploy on earth: https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/02/analysis-finds-james...

The IR detectors were replaced in 2015 because they were deteriorating in storge. Now the new detectors are 6 years old: https://optics.org/news/6/2/35

Even the 26Ghz downlink radio that can only be received the the 3 huge Deep Space Network dishes on earth is an experiment.

I really REALLY want the Webb to work, but I would take 10:1 action against.

asmithmd1··on James Webb Space Telescope launch media kit [pdf]
I really hope they will be able to get spectrographs of exo-planet atmospheres, but there is almost no chance that the Webb telescope will deliver meaningful science. The Project leaders are already starting to telegraph that message:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/nasa-science-chief-s...

This should have been cancelled 3 or 4 years ago when the sunk costs were only $8B. Instead we dumped another $2B into this almost sure failure

asmithmd1··on Who Would Kidnap a Space Telescope?
I don't think there is any need to encrypt traffic coming from the telescope. One of the (many) compromises in the design is using 26Ghz radios that will be so low power that the only way to downlink data is using the huge Deep Space Network.

So many design compromises were forced by not putting nuclear power on the telescope. I really hope it works, but I think the odds of getting much useful science from it slim.

asmithmd1··on Who Would Kidnap a Space Telescope?
Anyone want that other side of a bet that the Webb telescope will not be doing any science in 2022? Even if it launches, it will be a miracle if it works. They are using so many brand new technologies on a spacecraft operating 3X farther away than the moon.
asmithmd1··on Man dies of a heart attack after minors swatted him over his rare Twitter handle
Is it? I am asking a real question. How many people are saved by rapid police response vs. killed inadvertently? Where is there data that could be used to answer that question?
asmithmd1··on Two days before condo collapse, a pool contractor photographed damage in garage
That is what I thought. I sent this picture of a bridge carrying I-95N to MassDot a year ago:

https://imgur.com/gallery/ZSMg1pZ

They cleaned up the chunks of concrete that had fallen from the beam.

asmithmd1··on Ask HN: I don't feel like working at all, what to do?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect

The parent is referring to trying something that has been used for centuries before trying something that has been used for years.

asmithmd1··on Is that ship still stuck?
Lets say they cabled a Goodyear blimp to each side of the ship One Goodyear blimp is about 5,000 m^3 and a meter^3 of seawater is about a ton, so that gives us 10,000 tones of lifting force!.

The ship weighs 220,000 so it will be riding about 4.5% higher in the water. The main channel is very narrow. Its bow is buried about 20m deep and 100m into the shallow bottom outside of the channel. They are not going to lift it out.

asmithmd1··on Clearing price for supplying power to Texas grid –$31.65
Also, when an obvious market failure kills dozens of people, “free markets fix everything” is not correct.
asmithmd1··on Clearing price for supplying power to Texas grid –$31.65
They may have delivered low prices, but it was at the cost of ignoring handling “black swan” events. As the ERCOT CEO said, If they had not blacked out millions of customers, grid and consumer equipment would have been destroyed - wiping out all the accumulated cost savings.

ERCOT does not pay producers for standby capacity. Just this week the New England grid completed its annual auction for capacity to be available 3 years from now. The prices they will pay are between $3-$5/MWhr. Maybe a little more than electricity in TX in 2024 (but who knows). No power plant operator is going to hit the $9,000/hr “gusher”, but it will be available and they will get paid.

asmithmd1··on Clearing price for supplying power to Texas grid –$31.65
Ah yes, the appeal to authority argument. I can’t have anything valuable to say because I am not an authority.

I am sure running a power grid with thousands of producers and millions of consumers is incredibly complex. Did you know every wind turbine and generator is spinning exactly in sync across the whole grid. I am amazed that it works.

What obviously does not work is the libertarian fantasy of live market pricing for turning generators on and off. What are the chances of rolling blackouts on Monday as oil cracking plants come online to take advantage of free power?

asmithmd1··on Clearing price for supplying power to Texas grid –$31.65
If your job is to establish a stable market between producers and consumers, and the market price you set swings positive and negative, through 6 orders of magnitude in just 72 hour...you are not doing a good job.
asmithmd1··on Energy Mess in Texas
Sure, sure, $9,000/MWhr is a sweet reward that was being offered way back on Wednesday. Do you know what the clearing price is right now? -$31.65 Yes, they are CHARGING power plant operators who rushed to bring capacity online: http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/20210220_real_time_spp

Maybe markets are not the best solution for every situation.

asmithmd1··on Clearing price for supplying power to Texas grid –$31.65
I was not sure I was reading the map correctly, but it is true. If you rushed to get a power plant online because they were begging for power and offering $9k/MWhr, they are now charging you $30. http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/20210220_real_time_spp
asmithmd1··on Sargent Abhorred Making His Lavish Portraits, So He Took Up Charcoal (2020)
He made an exception during that time period for one model that was his inspiration for many figures of gods in his epic Boston Public Library murals:

https://www.apollo-magazine.com/thomas-mckeller-john-singer-...

asmithmd1··on System separation in the Continental Europe Synchronous Area on 8 January 2021
You can see on this map the purple DC lines between England and France and Ireland https://www.entsoe.eu/data/map/

I am amazed the grid goes all the way to Iraq

asmithmd1··on The Apgar Score helped decrease the infant mortality rate
My father-in-law is a doctor and he jokingly told me when my daughter was born, that only the babies of doctors who work in the hospital get 10/10
asmithmd1··on A CRISPR first produces squid as clear as glass
It has already been done - and the scientist is in jail:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/He_Jiankui_affair

asmithmd1··on A mysterious company’s Covid-19 papers in top medical journals may be unraveling
Autism and vaccine study https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2010/02/lancet_wak...
asmithmd1··on Teensy 4.1 Development Board
That was the low-level access. Below that they talk about porting a LWIP:

> I developed test sketches for NTP, DNS, multicast, web server, web client, httpd with SD or SdFat-beta lib, tfttp server (SD, SdFat-beta, or SPIFFS), ftpd (get/put) with SD lib, and TCP/UDP client/server

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