I was surprised to find that it's not on any of the obvious prediction markets.

Anyway, I'm a bit of a JWST pessimist too, but I don't find any of your arguments very convincing. It feels like you're cherrypicking bad things about the program without doing a very good job quantifying why they're supposed to matter in the big picture of absolute risk.

The problem comes down to diffuse leadership. The mars lander sky crane was a crazy idea. The head of JPL raised his hand in one of the early design reviews and said so, then drilled down into why it was a reasonable solution and how they would "Test Like You Fly".

The sunshield is a crazy idea and no one challenged it. Even worse, it is impossible to test it on earth. Just about every (partial) test of the shield has revealed problems that have been patched instead of starting over. If they had made the Webb telescope nuclear powered, many problems would go away - including deploying a 5 layer, experimental sun shield.