You will have a really hard time convincing Americans to keep paying high taxes while funding is pulled from their children’s schools and redistributed to inner cities and ruralia. My observations suggest the problem for the latter isn’t financial.
653 karma · joined February 25, 2021
Case 1: you keep training engineers.
Case 1.1: AGI soon, you don't need juniors or seniors besides a very few. You cost yourself a ton of money that competitors can reinvest into R&D, use to undercut your prices, or return to keep their investors happy.
Case 1.2: No AGI. Wages rise, a lot. You must remain in line with that to avoid losing those engineers you trained.
Case 2: You quit training juniors and let AI do the work.
Case 2.1: AGI soon, you have saved yourself a bundle of cash and remain mostly in in line with the market.
Case 2.2: no AGI, you are in the same bidding war for talent as everyone else, the same place you'd have been were you to have spent all that cash to train engineers. You now have a juicier balance sheet with which to enter this bidding war.
The only way out of this, you can probably see, is some sort of external co-ordination, as is the case with most of these situations. The high-EV move is to quit training juniors, by a mile, independently of whether AI can replace senior devs in a decade.
I think some people are betting on the fact that AI can replace junior devs in 2-5 years and seniors in 10-20, when the old ones are largely gone. But that's sort of beside the point as far as most corporate decision-making.
If you want one idiot's perspective, please hyper-focus on model quality. The barrier right now is not tooling, it's the fact that models are not good enough for a large amount of work. More importantly, they're still closer to interns than junior devs: you must give them a ton of guidance, constant feedback, and a very stern eye for them to do even pretty simple tasks.
I'd like to see something with an o1-preview/pro level of quality that isn't insanely expensive, particularly since a lot of programming isn't about syntax (which most SotA modls have down pat) but about understanding the underlying concepts, an area in which they remain weak.
Atp I really don't care if the tooling sucks. Just give me really, really good mdoels that don't cost a kidney.
But this is one of the better applications I've seen. Running centralized infra for this specific case is extremely difficult and, generally speaking, it makes sense to give people the option to express to willingness to pay for what's essentially a priority request.
This isn't pay-for-access, it's "I'll offer some reward for you to get the paper now, after which it is still accessible to everyone."
My big quibble is with the implementation: there really doesn't need to be a sci-hub memecoin. Monero is purpose-built for this sort of thing. Use Monero (or zcash, I suppose.) Easy litmus test: if a DNM opened up that only supported transactions in its own "memecoin", how many people would take it seriously? Zero.
I don't really see how this affects e.g. what I do for my children. I will absolutely be turning them into the closest to superhuman the current state of treatments lets me, traveling internationally if I need to. If someone else decides to segregate access to treatment, that is a separate, wrong act that will not hold me back from giving my children every advantage possible.
(Yes, I understand this is a positional arms race, but 1. that doesn't change the individually-optimal outcome, and 2. that doesn't change that society net benefits from it.)
If we could make most children smart, productive, ambitious, courteous, civil, conscientious, honorable, strong... the value to society is probably high enough to justify covering it for almost anyone.
I wouldn't be shocked if huge, expensive-to-run models performed better and if all the "optimized" versions were actually labs trying to ram cheaper bullshit down everyone's throat. Basically chinesium for LLMs; you can afford them but it's not worth it. I remember someone saying o1 was, what, 200B dense? I might be misremembering.
3.5 is better for this, ime. I hooked claude desktop up to an MCP server to fake claude-code less the extortionate pricing and it works decently. I've been trying to apply it for rust work; it's not great yet (still doesn't really seem to "understand" rust's concepts) but can do some stuff if you make it `cargo check` after each change and stop it if it doesn't.
I expect something like o3-high is the best out there (aider leaderboards support this) either alone or in combination with 4.1, but tbh that's out of my price range. And frankly, I can't mentally get past paying a very high price for an LLM response that may or may not be useful; it leaves me incredibly resentful as a customer that your model can fail the task, requiring multiple "re-rolls", and you're passing that marginal cost to me.
I'd probably keep a TOTP app if I actually brought my cell with my everywhere but I really don't feel like it; if I'm heading to a cafe to work for a bit I might need to access something and can't be bothered to bring two devices.
Plus, people increasingly access stuff from cell phones, so it's not a guarantee of "something you have" anymore. And no shot we're convincing everyone to start carrying some kind of hardware token.
You have to remember that cybersecurity is driven by what is secure so much as what is compliant, and increasingly so.
I really agree with it, but that’s probably their rationale.
I have also really appreciated something that felt much less janky, had better vim bindings, and wasn't slow to start even on a very fast computer. You can completely botch Cursor if you type really fast. On an older mid-range laptop, I ran into problems with a bunch of its auto-pair stuff of all things.
The alternative acronyms are neologisms created specifically out of anti-Christian sentiment.
If y'all were operating in good faith, these would catch the same level of attention:
- Sabbatical, originating from Sabbath, a Judeo-Christian day of rest,
- The use of "karma", "zen", and "avatar" as terms and concepts, which come mostly from eastern religion,
- The use of "kosher", "mazel tov", and "golem" outside religious contexts due to their Judaic roots,
- and the use of "assassin", from a group of Shiite militants during the Crusades.
Of course, none of these catch the sort of attention that BC and AD do, because this is an example of explicitly anti-Christian thought, word, and deed. If you are particularly averse to it as opposed to other religions, that is your personal bigotry to work through, not ours to placate.
It also wasn't exactly part of the classical hellenistic civilization we talk about as the root of the western tradition, something of which I'm sure you're fully aware, making this a moot point.
Do you understand why the phrase "Christian BS", aside from not really being much of an argument, ensures probably nine people in ten will immediately close off to what you say and refuse to take you seriously?
Christianity didn't have as strong an influence there and then, but it obviously did in the course of the Roman Empire, and this was around the time it started to grow. It's obviously relevant in a way cults of Mithras or Serapis or whomever else weren't.
GP does not make a fair point. We're specifically talking about classical antiquity which was a fairly bounded world. Warrior god cults, like that of Mithras, didn't have a strong role in the overall state and direction of the empire. They weren't major players and it is actually perfectly fine for terminology and understanding to focus on those.
Christianity is the prism through which the Romans later viewed things and through which the heirs of classical antiquity did. This isn't parochial, this reflects your general dislike of Christianity's dominance. But I don't actually have to make a normative argument that it should be, just the positive point that it is.
"Pagan" is a widely-accepted way to refer to Rome's old polytheistic religious traditions, which existed, but not unchallenged, around the first century.