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Throwawayaerlei

594 karma · joined November 9, 2019

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Throwawayaerlei··on The Public Shouldn’t Pay for Drugs Twice
Only read the beginning of this screed, but its a unique and unlikely to be repeated situation until the next pandemic model. "Competitive industry" normally spends the big bucks to do Phase II and especially expensive Phase III trials. And as you note, manufacturing it. Which Pfizer did without Operation Warp Speed money until it started failing to deliver on its promises in December 2020. May have gotten some money from Germany through BioNTech which was the company that actually developed it.

The claim "By one estimate, the National Institutes of Health spent $17 billion on vaccine technologies fundamental to the Covid-19 vaccine." goes back to the mid-20th Century, is so broad as to be useless and is obviously disqualifying propaganda: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-04-covid-vaccine-built-b...

Throwawayaerlei··on China braces for wave of workers fleeing iPhone factory in Covid-hit Zhengzhou
"Why are you using a throwaway? It's not like you're saying something offensive."

Pretty sure 1.4 billion people believe or have to pretend what I said was incredibly offensive.

Plus many powerful entities outside of the PRC who depend on it for some, a lot or all of their wealth, production, whatever.

Throwawayaerlei··on China braces for wave of workers fleeing iPhone factory in Covid-hit Zhengzhou
Everybody in the PRC is a "slave" except for Xi, and he's a slave to the tiger he's riding.
Throwawayaerlei··on The legal rule (Eng&Wales) that computers are presumed to be operating correctly [pdf]
Prior to that I read of bogus prosecutions based on ATM withdraws.
Throwawayaerlei··on Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?
"I think we can trace most of our problems back to the end of the cold war. If we have some common thing to fight against we stop fighting each other...."

That never happened during the Cold War from what I've read, and from what I observed starting in the early 1970s it steadily got worse.

Throwawayaerlei··on What's different about next-gen transistors
No idea. For example, between the development of core memory and DRAM there were a host of technologies they tried because core is slow and expensive to manufacture. The best they did for speed was called thin-film, and they sold only two systems with it, upgrades of the System 360 Model 91 supercomputer named the Model 95. They had 1 MiB of it and 4 MiB of core, sold to NASA, the first Model 91 customer: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_System/360_Model_91
Throwawayaerlei··on What's different about next-gen transistors
If you look at IBM's history you can see how reliability and the ability to manufacture components in quantity played a huge role in the adaptation of both. Bell Lab's early point contact ones weren't manufacturable. IBM didn't move to proper ICs until 1970 with the System/370 because anything they made including the low end would be sold in quantities too high for ICs before then (System/360 Models 85 and 195 preceded the 370s by 1-2 years, but they only sold 60 total units).
Throwawayaerlei··on “US Navy should prepare for an invasion of Taiwan as soon as this year”
"That said 2022/2023 window, AGAIN THAT'S RIGHT NOW, there's essentially nothing US can do to bolster posture in that timeframe."

Simply moving most of our attack subs into the theater after full weapons loadouts would massively if "silently" bolster our posture.

We could also shift surface assets there. We're not going to be able to build many more Standard missiles in a 2.5 month timeframe, but we could move a lot of Arleigh Burke class destroyers into the theater and extending all the way to Guam. We might have some anti-missile equipment we could move to that island, don't know how much the war in the Ukraine has drained those.

That's just off the top of my head before I go to sleep, I'm sure there's lots ore.

Throwawayaerlei··on US Export Restrictions, Intel Layoffs, Applied Materials, and TSMC
Can't speak for ianai but when he said "malignant" that should certainly include its policies towards its neighbors and the rest of the world. "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy is pretty iconic in representing that, but note how the CCP has managed to get so many of its neighbors to ally with Japan of all nations. After the horrors of occupation by Imperial Japan which are still an issue in South Korea for example. Where Japan's replies including a licencing regime for several classes of specialty chemicals used in IC fabrication.

The world also cares very much what happens with Taiwan if that results in one way or another it no longer exporting chips. That island also makes quite a bit of higher end stuff for many nations' and companies' supply chains, as well as finished goods.

Throwawayaerlei··on US Export Restrictions, Intel Layoffs, Applied Materials, and TSMC
Where does this meme come from that China is this horror show held together only by torturing and enslaving their population into submission?

History? Until Deng's reforms created a private market in food, block and village Chinese Communist Party (CCP) committee had absolute power of life and death over those under it through their issuing of food ration coupons. This data from some Chinese grad students I knew who lived through that and the transition, plus it was generally known. See also how the one child policy was implimented. They also still execute a lot of people, and politically a lot of corruption cases which sometimes go that far are clearly Xi and his new Tsinghua clique eliminating competition. Which has created a great many enemies in the CCP, that is its ruling class especially now with the suppression of tech companies.

At a higher level, the estimated 70 million people the CCP killed after gaining power in 1949? That may be high, a lot of it is from Mao's enemies, but on the other hand we keep increasing the estimates of deaths from the Cultural Revolution. Which Mao used to regain power after his very costly Great Leap Forward and the ensuing famine per those estimates killed tens of millions and cost him de facto paramount position.

Post-Mao and the Gang of Four the rulers of China made various agreements to ensure such things would not happen again. Xi and his new clique shredded them, and for a less contentious than the issues with Xinjiang Muslims example look at the brutality of Xi's Zero COVID policy. If Xi navigates the current every five year congress meeting to get his third term there's no reason to expect things to get better. Very possibly the same if he fails and is effectively deposed.

Those thousand year old traditions? Mao did his very best to stamp them out, especially in the Cultural Revolution. I would wonder if they're done at any greater than a cargo cult level today, although that might be enough for the public. Except of course those members of metro areas that are getting smashed when a few cases of COVID are found in them, those "owning" real estate, or those without a social safety net where 4 grandparents depend on 2 parents who depend on 1 child for the extremes of the effects of the one child policy.

For the economics you cite, also see how the residential property bubble is bursting now. That's not necessarily the fault of Xi, was inevitable sooner or later, but it is happening now in concert with other negative things including backlash like this very uncertain in its effects US chip tech embargo (the US Commerce Department has a great deal of discretion in what it will license someday).

Throwawayaerlei··on Public buses across country adding microphones to record conversations (2012)
Can see this as being part of the US mandate from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act to add impaired driver detection. What that will be is at the discretion of the Department of Transportation.
Throwawayaerlei··on Google Pixel 6 still freezes when calling Emergency Services
If you're really on a budget you can probably go back even more generations and get both an acceptable phone and one that'll get updates for some time. Which are probably more important for iOS because it's such a single big target compared to the fragmented Android world. I'm currently using an iPhone 6s I got in February 2020 for $200 from my Consumer Cellular MVNO which unlocks it after 6 months.

One thing you'll lose with the older phones sooner than iOS updates is AppleCare support, but if you get a good bargain to begin with....

Throwawayaerlei··on UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000
CF Industries shut down their two nitrogen fertilizer plants in the U.K. back in September 2021 due to high natural gas prices.
Throwawayaerlei··on Google IoT Core will be discontinued on Aug. 16, 2023
Also means it's price should get discounted for that swapping out, and for "essential" stuff, like the things you stock spares for, your customers will have to go through two cycles of swapping.
Throwawayaerlei··on International partnership aims to improve sorghum breeding
Often called "milo" in the US and used to feed animals except for sorghum molasses. Wikipedia claims "Most varieties are drought- and heat-tolerant, [and] nitrogen-efficient," the latter is currently very important in a lot of the world with the skyrocketing costs of nitrogen fertilizer.
Throwawayaerlei··on OnlyFans bribed Meta to put porn stars on terror watchlist: lawsuits
For it to be criminal you've got to convince a prosecutor with relevant authority to take up the case.
Throwawayaerlei··on Nvidia Announces Preliminary Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2023
"Gaming" is one of the least pejorative words they could use to describe cryptocurrency mining, and since these people buy video gaming boards in fierce competition with the gamers Nvida would really like to be selling them to....
Throwawayaerlei··on Nvidia Announces Preliminary Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2023
Gross margin is their sales price minus costs of goods sold.

Doesn't include indirect costs, which include non-recurring engineering (NRE). Which is huge for a company like Nvidia designing and verifying new parts, and paying for the masks to make them, which appear to go down to TSMC's 3nm node. Also making new reference designs for boards, I hope tech support for OEMs etc.

They're also one of the very few hardware companies that's good at software and that appears to be done with six figure market salaries per a search I just did.

High gross margins also give them maneuvering room when the market turns against them like now and very possibly for a while longer, and I seriously doubt they've ever believed they could confidently predict what the cryptocurrency market would do with their repurposed systems.

Throwawayaerlei··on Intel expands Oregon Fab building; 18A Node now 2024
"You’re advocating trading that for Apple’s profits."

Look at who you're replying to, I'm not advocating that at all!

The Semiwiki guy credibly claims TSMC has reached this worldwide pinnacle of chipmaking in part by being trustworthy and creating an ecosystem based on trust. That of course includes being fair with your customers, which has allowed the latter to fund the creation of new fab lines and nodes knowing TSMC won't screw them over once that money is spent.

Also not the guy who made potato analogies.

Throwawayaerlei··on Intel expands Oregon Fab building; 18A Node now 2024
"> were run by Apple's board, we would all be paying 30% of our income for the privilege of using modern computers

This was IBM. For fundamental, structural reasons, they were dethroned."

I think they did it to themselves, first by eschewing virtual memory in the System/360 and first models of the System/370, thus losing the higher education market and what people eventually moved to like UNIX, thus their big machines become a specialized niche of the whole computer market. Then in moving from a preference of leasing to sales which gave them a one time goosing of revenue which they didn't prepare to lose when the cycle of that ended.

They did do well in PCs for a while, but the unit that did that in Florida eventually got blue washed (there's lots more to the story of course).

"Again, it’s similar fresh-MBA thinking that tanked Intel."

Also very unsure of this, I don't see that resulting in the 10 nm now Intel 7 debacle. More like their decades long high level very bad engineering management eventually caught up with their crown jewel of fabrication. The not so fresh MBA I assume CFO who was made an interim CEO actually had a plan which might have succeeded.

I don't think the current CEO's plan has much if any chance at success, especially since I don't see him making the brutal moves necessary to change the company culture to work as a foundry. In particular, I note while he worked for Intel for a long time, he's a design instead of fabrication guy, the latter is what they needed and I wonder if they couldn't hire anyone good from that field.

Throwawayaerlei··on Intel expands Oregon Fab building; 18A Node now 2024
"US Government is also got TSMC (Taiwan's semiconductor fabs) to build an Arizona fab-lab. Look, even Taiwan is scared of possible conflict and is hedging on the physical safety of the USA."

I don't think that's the case, as I understand it this comes from the US wanting to onshore some of TSMC's capabilities and Taiwan screwing up electricity production on the island.

It does Taiwan the government and ruling class no good whatsoever to place assets beyond the PRC's military reach, rather the incentives are entirely opposite of that. The more valuable TSMC's fab lines there are, the more incentive the US has to help with the ROC's defense, or war if it comes to that. Which in the case of torpedoes from attack subs can even be done with some plausible deniability.

Throwawayaerlei··on Italy, Intel close to $5B deal for chip factory
Wikipedia's list of fab lines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabricat... has 4 in Italy, 3 Intel ones in Israel and 2 by an Israeli firm named Tower Semiconductor, which on its page has 2 in the US plus there's a joint venture with more. To get an idea about how this can go in the less cutting edge market, all but one of their fab lines was purchased from another company or in one case acquired through a merger.
Throwawayaerlei··on Anime retailer Right Stuf has been acquired by Sony/Aniplex
The market for buying small companies like Right Stuff Inc. is small and very particular and peculiar.

To sell it to anyone else but a large or giant company like Sony/Crunchyroll is going to be hard as I said. For what we as consumers would like you'd need to find another otaku or group of them who are wealthy and/or trustworthy enough to pay in installments out of ongoing gross profits, and you'd have to trust their business sense.

You'd want someone like my father to do some of the footwork and all of deal making to avoid distractions from running the business and lowering its value. Or you have to find an interested big player of which there just aren't very many. And here this clearly fits in with Sony's previous actions in America like buying Funimation and Crunchyroll, but unfortunately they're likely one of the worst case buyers.

From the viewpoint of the owners, Wikipedia says Shawne Kleckner who's still with it is 50 and the company was founded in 1987, 35 years is a long time to be running a company. Wven if it started out as a shell to buy and resell telescopes, pretty soon they started bringing the classic Astro Boy to the direct to home market and in due course became a competitive general mail order reseller as well as localizer. When TokyoPop nuked their reselling arm after Y2K they became the highest profile one as far as I know, not counting increasingly untrustworthy Amazon. Which Right Stuff regularly also uses as a platform while doing their own fulfillment.

Throwawayaerlei··on Anime retailer Right Stuf has been acquired by Sony/Aniplex
"Without knowing the context, I would tentatively agree that your example seems more like a mistranslation."

What does the context matter when the person who made the change, not mistranslation, freely admits to it!

How can you claim to be an authority about these issues when you're not aware of what may be the single worst example of it, and have no interest in investigating this when it's brought to your attention?

Throwawayaerlei··on Anime retailer Right Stuf has been acquired by Sony/Aniplex
So you're saying "bilingual professional translators" are doing a better job when they translate the Dragon Maid common yuri trope line "But we're both girls..." into a strong statement the human protagonist is straight and as I recall would never be interested in dragons? When Jamie Marchi who made that change for the dub admits to it: https://archive.ph/0XeRq This was a major change to the entire tone of the relationship that was going to develop between the two main characters of the work.

You really think "sus" will stand the test of time, be intelligible to viewers years and decades from now? It's at least a debatable point although you're comparing it to Japanese that by your own admission has survived a quarter century. But claiming our complaints about major and minor changes to works by Crunchyroll, the entity which officially bought Right Stuff Inc. are bogus do not stand up to examination.

And needless to say there's a lot more where the above came from. For another major corporate example see Seven Seas which just can't stop censoring and altering the work of the "bilingual professional translators" who are native Japanese speakers they hire and credit who are not at all happy about it, for doing that silently and without consulting them reflects on their professionalism.

Throwawayaerlei··on Anime retailer Right Stuf has been acquired by Sony/Aniplex
Here you're saying the founders and owners of Right Stuff Inc. should have very limited rights to cash out, to turn their illiquid shares of their company into money. My father used to have a subspecialty in this, it's very hard for typical private companies, so much so he'd generally get a 1/3 cut for accomplishing it.

One very real alternative is just shutting down when the founder get too old to run it.

Throwawayaerlei··on Political Chips
Again, what's your point in trying to change the topic of the discussion? You certain Xi is going to further trash his own economy merely to further hurt the US economy?

For that matter, I think your original proposition has been partly proven wrong, the traffic jams at West Coast ports have deprived the US of timely container deliveries from the PRC and Asia in general. Some high value low weight and volume stuff got through via air, but somehow we continued to operate a modern technological industrial civilization.

Throwawayaerlei··on Political Chips
"Not really - I mean, if I run Toyota should I not be producing cars I can sell at a profit? And if my sales are falling, isn't that a bad thing?"

Yes to both. Maybe I'm misinterpreting the concept. "Steady" to me in this context means the same, thus financial shenanigans to make sure you don't report "excess" earnings in one period so you can have them in reserve for a future one where you have a slump.

"Regular" profits are ideal, but Toyota today is not a good example, it's a mature company in a country with a mature automobile industry. As a counter example, see the story sold to the investing community about Amazon, not that they would make a steady profit, but that they would become huge and then do something like that. Which they've delivered on (and I wouldn't judge them on anything in the COVID disruptive period 2020 to now).

Throwawayaerlei··on Political Chips
While I don't accept the way you've reframed the decision criteria, I can point out one US nuclear attack sub busting a few ships loaded with fuel and food for the PRC "would collapse in weeks." Which is relevant since we're discussing my claim of how "narrow" the PRC's economy is, not anything about the US.
Throwawayaerlei··on Political Chips
"It was originally created by Kelly but he managed to transmit the spirit to a successor, who wrote an interesting book about his time (80's and 90's) called 'stealth'."

The time period doesn't quite match up, but I found Skunk Works: A Personal Memoir of My Years at Lockheed by Ben R. Rich https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0316743003/ to be quite interested if not quite as interesting as I'd hoped when I bought it.

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