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Talyen42

703 karma · joined December 21, 2014

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Talyen42··on Tesla Faces Accelerating Rate of Model 3 Refunds
Can't help but think this is on purpose. Elon straight up said they can't sell mostly base models right now and survive, they need premium configs to stay afloat.
Talyen42··on Banned from Amazon: The Shoppers Who Make Too Many Returns
I once ordered 8 items, including Tide detergent, and they were all packaged in a single large box, not individually packaged in any way. Multiple items were smashed, the detergent was punctured, and everything was covered in small amounts of detergent.

I got a $100+ refund for all 8 items and they didn't want any of the items back.

Probably counts against my account tally.

Talyen42··on Buffett bashes Bitcoin as nonproductive, thriving on mystique
He's thinking of it in investing terms, underlying asset value, cash flows, etc. Because the media asks him "Should we buy bitcoin?" every damn day of the year.

I'd be more interested to hear what he thinks makes for a good currency, inflation vs. deflation, freedom of transfer, protection against forfeiture, etc.

Does he also think that the US Dollar is rat poison because it's not a productive asset? He holds like $80b cash.

"But bitcoin has high fees" well yeah, there are 1,000 newer cryptos with lower fees. (and plenty of scams)

"But local stores don't use it" well yeah, nobody used credit cards in the 40s either. (and now cash is dead)

"But it's not user friendly" well yeah, neither was the internet until ~2000. (i've seen nearly zero progress in crypto here, btw)

Talyen42··on Bill Gates: I would short Bitcoin if I could
You can short Bitcoin, and he won't.
Talyen42··on Emergency room patients can face steep bills even when treatment is declined
Hospital corporations and insurance corporations are not your friend.

You shouldn't have to do this in a first world country, but:

* Go to the ER without ID

* (optional) Ask how much it will cost

* (optional) They do not give prices, as a matter of policy

* They must treat you by law

* Afterwards, offer a cash payment you deem reasonable

* They will accept or decline it

Transaction complete.

For non-emergency care and prescriptions, get cash quotes up front, pay in cash, and order discount online prescriptions from canada, a first world country.

For chronic medical conditions, leave the US and immigrate to a first world country.

Talyen42··on Amazon threatens to suspend Signal's AWS account over censorship circumvention
Misleading headline?

> Signal plans to make its traffic look like traffic from another site, (popularly known as “domain fronting”) by using a domain owned by Amazon -- Souq.com

Talyen42··on Twitter also sold data access to Cambridge Analytica researcher
Public tweets. You know, the ones everyone can see, all the time. Big difference.
Talyen42··on Your success isn’t down to free will – luck determines everything
yeah, man, and because the universe is deterministic, like, nothing really matters, dude

(struggles in handcuffs as police arrest him)

Talyen42··on The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet
The biggest challenge yet unconquered is getting your "average" business ($1-100m revenue, zero AI knowledge) using ML to help with literally anything they do.

I'd wager less than 1% of businesses outside of SV even have a clue where to begin, or what to use it for, my employer included. "Do we hire some AI guys?"

We'll need to crack the 1%-using-it mark for me to consider the revolution "begun"...

Talyen42··on Facebook Is Forming a Team to Design Its Own Chips
People are making fun of facebook/google for expanding beyond core competency, but this is a market (AI training / inference) where Nvidia has a very real monopoly that facebook and google must rely on for core competency products, so it's critically important that one or both of them break the monopoly by becoming a fabless chip designer and partnering with TSMC (or whoever) to make training and inference chips. It's absolutely the right decision today, and if there was one viable alternative to Nvidia (which AMD and Intel are not), it wouldn't be necessary.
Talyen42··on Ask HN: Girlfriend is being shown ads depending on what we do together. How?
did you invite her to come see the open house by texting her "hey, wanna come see an open house"?
Talyen42··on Lessons on product and marketing from the growth of Domino’s Pizza
a 90x increase in stock value, but only a 2x increase in revenue 2010-2018. that's just about what the average company did. that's compared to 10-100x increases in revenue at these startups it's being compared to.

the only reason for the 90x increase is because the stock was basically worthless, assumed eventual bankruptcy, liquidation of assets style valuation.

then they successfully turned it around and doubled revenue in a reliable and sustainable fashion, which made it actually worth something (90x more than almost-zero)

dominos is definitely not growing like a startup

Talyen42··on Apple Plans to Use Its Own Chips in Macs from 2020, Replacing Intel
I think this was inevitable given the insane YoY performance increase we've seen from A-series chips.

Anyone want to chime in on why Intel can't get more than 5% YoY while Apple has been getting 30-40%?

Talyen42··on The 600+ Companies PayPal Shares Your Data With
Hopefully none of these 600+ companies ever get hacked.
Talyen42··on A startup is pitching a mind-uploading service that is “100 percent fatal”
that's why you bury some treasure and keep the location locked away in your brain!
Talyen42··on Galaxy S9 Slower Than iPhone X
They're both on the 10nm node, but Apple/TSMC is moving to 7nm for this year's iphones (supposedly).

Won't Apple/TSMC's lead just get significantly larger this fall? How is Samsung/Qualcomm letting this happen?

Talyen42··on A non-profit that figured out how to massively cut suicide rates in Sri Lanka
thankfully, absolutely nothing else changed for this population in 20 years, so we know this is a legit controlled study
Talyen42··on Notes on Analytics and Tracking in Onavo Protect for iOS
Next up: FBI buys VPN service, promises everything is chill
Talyen42··on Money Laundering via Author Impersonation on Amazon
the root of all of these kinds of scams is the same:

your "identity" is nothing more than your SSN/TIN, which is already on a thousand lists for sale on the dark web, and forever will be

there is literally no way to secure your identity if you've ever used a service requiring your SSN

Talyen42··on Ten years on from Norway's quota for women on corporate boards
Comments in this thread are all discussing the wrong topic. It wouldn't matter if 100% of corporate board members were women and minorities due to how boards are constructed over time through shareholder "elections".

Corporate boards are not a free market of ideas, they do not support or represent shareholders, society, or employees, they are monopolized self-serving power structures representing an extension of incumbent management.

Introducing diversity into a situation with already-disfunctional power dynamics (which drastically favor incumbent management because all votes not cast are cast in favor of incumbents) obviously have no impact. Corporate governance laws and proxy voting processes changing is a prerequisite for marginal board members to ever have any real power.

Talyen42··on It's Getting Harder to Tell Banks from Tech Companies
what is a tech company, really?

it's like saying something is a "concrete company" because that's what the corporate buildings are made of, or a "people company" because they only employ humans

(terms that actually make sense: SaaS product (Salesforce, Dropbox), advertising marketplace (Google, Facebook)... and so on. Not "tech")

Talyen42··on The time has come to remove Facebook from your life (2017)
My favorite reason to delete facebook: the massive amount of information on you being bought and sold by facebook and hundreds of other companies is regularly leaked and used for fraudulent activity (gaining access to banks, brokerages, credit lines, cryptocurrency, email accounts, phone port scams, etc.) even if you're totally unaware of it. Identity information yields criminal activity simply by existing in too many places.

It's not about a shitty news feed to me, it's about OpSec.

Talyen42··on Cloud TPUs in Beta
How does this compare to Nvidia GPUs on AWS price/perf-wise?

The article makes it sound like this is a new thing...

Talyen42··on Interpreting a market plunge
If you compare something like Netflix or Tesla, whose valuations are based on the proposition of 10x-ing profits sometime in the future, to something like Apple or GM, whose profits are here and now and may not even increase, would that mean Apple/GM (as an example) might fare better while the market adjusts to rising rates? So far, everything is dropping kind of evenly, it seems, but wouldn't companies with near term cash flows be worth more in a rising rates environment?
Talyen42··on Lost so much $ on cryptocurenecy . what to do
50% drops in crypto happen 3-6 times a year. That's every 8 weeks. Get used to regular crashes, or get out of the investment.
Talyen42··on Slack: Other browsers require significant effort so we're focused on Chrome
More Money != Faster Development
Talyen42··on CNN Is Closing Down Beme, YouTube Star Casey Neistat’s Video Company
Classic case of a superstar at X (video, editing) trying a new sport Y (startup management), and failing spectacularly.

Casey Neistat is a talented daily lifestyle vlogger, and apparently not a talented venture startup video platform CEO.

Talyen42··on Google Pay
Glad they've finally started to recognize app duplication as a problem for consumers.

How many messaging apps does Google have again? I can't keep track.

Talyen42··on Amazon Will Buy Target This Year, Gene Munster Predicts
what's with all these analysts predicting mega mergers today?

> "Citi analysts see 40% chance Apple will buy Netflix"

Yeah, right. It's baseless cable news headline-bait garbage.

Talyen42··on Ask HN: Does anyone use an alternative to a password manager?
I assume all my passwords will be leaked/known and don't store anything sensitive without 2FA, ideally not SMS 2FA.

A password alone is never secure.

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