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NullHypothesist

333 karma · joined August 18, 2023

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NullHypothesist··on Why One of Tech's Biggest Gamblers Is Betting Against Elon Musk's AI Vision
https://archive.ph/20260627195614/https://www.wsj.com/tech/w...
NullHypothesist··on Project Glasswing: Securing critical software for the AI era
Perhaps "ASI" is the better acronym here
NullHypothesist··on Complexity Explorables
These are amazing! This post made my day.
NullHypothesist··on The Waymo World Model
I wonder if they can simulate the Beatles crossing the street at Abbey Road in the late '60s
NullHypothesist··on Claude Opus 4.6
Broken link :(
NullHypothesist··on Donut Lab’s all-solid-state battery delivers 400 Wh/kg of energy density
Definitely a "huge if true" headline.

Seems like there's natural skepticism here (https://electrek.co/2026/01/05/verge-unveils-370-mile-electr...), but boy, if it works... Hopefully would be a bellwether for commercial solid-state truly emerging in the next few years.

Fingers crossed this is true.

NullHypothesist··on Waymo cars ignored stopped school buses in Atlanta. What happens now?
A few software engineers work a weekend to fix the issue, and it never happens again?
NullHypothesist··on The Data on Self-Driving Cars Is Clear. We Have to Change Course
Methodology can be found here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15389588.2025.2...

"Benchmarks were aligned to the same vehicle types, road types, and locations as where the Waymo Driver operated."

So yes, it's apples to apples... I'm sure there's some inherent variation, so maybe it's fuji to granny smith apples, but it seems there's nothing wildly off in their methodology.

NullHypothesist··on Manhattan Population Explorer
This is super cool!
NullHypothesist··on California DMV approves map increase in Waymo driverless operations
Cupertino is in there, no?
NullHypothesist··on Waymo robotaxis are now giving rides on freeways in LA, SF and Phoenix
Looks like they've opened up SJC Airport, too! SFO imminent?
NullHypothesist··on Waymo robotaxis are now giving rides on freeways in LA, SF and Phoenix
This is a huge sign of confidence that they think they can do this safely and at scale... Freeways might appear "easy" on the surface, but there are all sorts of long tail edge-cases that make them insanely tricky to do confidently without a driver. This will unlock a lot for them with all of the smaller US cities (where highways are essential) they've announced plans for over the next year or so.
NullHypothesist··on Ortega hypothesis
> the opposing "Newton hypothesis", which says that scientific progress is mostly the work of a relatively small number of great scientists (after Isaac Newton's statement that he "stood on the shoulders of giants")

I guess the Ortega equivalent statement would be "I stood on top of a giant pile of tiny people"

...Not quite as majestic, but hey, if it gets the job done...

NullHypothesist··on Rereading books
I read a lot of non-fiction, and while I'm definitely guilty (and proud of it!) of sentimentally holding onto old books, I think the value of having a personal library isn't to show off what you've read (an added bonus), but to be able to go back and reference books / passages when inspiration strikes or you realize your memory's gotten a bit fuzzy on a topic. Re-reading a book in its entirety is great. But sometimes just pulling back up a specific passage or chapter is all you need.
NullHypothesist··on Hey Tech Bro–Your Dream City Is Doomed
I like the sentiment here. Governance is the algorithm on which societies run (culture, too, sure, but if you're starting a new city, culture tends to come out of governance more than the other way around), and we need to try out more ways of running societies.

Some will fail, for sure. But just because you can point to some examples of new cities or nations that fail doesn't mean it's not worth trying and that the impact can't be incredibly huge when it goes right (e.g. America in 1776). If you pointed to a handful of failed startups and said, "I can list 7 start ups that ended terribly, therefore you should never start a company" that's naive.

That said, just thinking about pretty buildings won't get you very far either (that said, I love me a good pretty building).

I appreciate the nuance of this post; it's not "build things = good, let's build cities" nor "build things = bad, preserve status quo at all costs"

I'd love to see more thoughtful attempts emerge in this space, and happy a gaping hole in many current attempts is being pointed out.

NullHypothesist··on Waymo Approved to Start Autonomous Testing in NYC
"Waymo has been granted a permit to test its autonomous vehicles in New York City, the first such approval granted by the city. The company told TechCrunch it plans to start testing “immediately.”

The company is allowed to deploy up to eight of its Jaguar I-Pace SUVs in Manhattan and Downtown Brooklyn through late September. Waymo’s vehicles must have a trained safety operator in the driver’s seat, with at least one hand on the wheel at all times. The company cannot pick up passengers (since it would need a license from the city’s Taxi and Limousine Commission) and it has to regularly meet with and report data to the city’s Department of Transportation (DOT), according to the mayor’s office."

NullHypothesist··on Waymo has started putting advertisements on their vehicles
I think this is a partnership announcement? Didn't they just announce they have Spotify in the cars now? I don't think it's an ad (though I see the potential confusion).
NullHypothesist··on Trump orders firing of labor stats chief after data showed jobs growth slowed
This is what corruption looks like.
NullHypothesist··on Game theory illustrated by an animated cartoon game
Found this ~10 years ago. Still one of the best things i've ever come across on the internet.
NullHypothesist··on America's Magical Thinking about Housing
-- "If homeownership is best understood as an investment, like equities, we should root for prices to go up. If housing is an essential good, like food and clothing, we should cheer when prices stay flat—or even when they fall. Instead, many Americans seem to think of a home as existing in a quantum superposition between a present-day necessity and a future asset." --

I completely agree; we should build more damn houses. It's better for everyone except people seeking to extract rent from land values.

That said, it's going to be incredibly hard to circumvent the system of incentives we've set up for home-ownership in the US. Building codes are one thing, but baking property ownership into policy as a core investment vehicle is another... Building ARE commodities, and should not be treated as speculative assets in a healthy society.

Aside from building more (which we should do!), thinking about property ownership incentives is another side of the coin that deserves attention -- this is likely what enables the self-deception required to forget the basic laws of economics, as Thompson discusses here.

NullHypothesist··on A deliberate practice app for guitar players who want to level up
This looks super cool. I love projects like this. Going to give it a try!
NullHypothesist··on 300-year-old Polish beech voted Tree of the Year
lol. This is a really lovely contest, but with the near-glacial pace of tree growth, I'd hope they'd mix up the criteria just enough every year to keep it interesting to us fast-moving humans.
NullHypothesist··on Derek Thompson and Ezra Klein on Abundance
https://web.archive.org/web/20250318114952/https://www.theat...
NullHypothesist··on Ride into the Future with Waymo on Uber in Austin
Oh yeah, I totally agree. Should have specified. That advantage only applies to making vehicles. In terms of driving, operation, and pretty much everything else, clearly 'advantage Waymo'
NullHypothesist··on Ride into the Future with Waymo on Uber in Austin
Got any better ideas?
NullHypothesist··on Ride into the Future with Waymo on Uber in Austin
If Waymo continues to grow their OEM partner pool, then presumably they'd have a better ability to put cars on the road than Tesla. I'd say right now it's "advantage Tesla" but could easily see this flipped on its head if Waymo announces more partnerships soon. Could very easily see them partnering with major US automakers like Ford or Stellantis (lol maybe even GM, but that seems extreme)
NullHypothesist··on Ride into the Future with Waymo on Uber in Austin
+1

In SF, when Cruise & Waymo were both operating at the same time, there was a lot of animosity towards autonomous vehicle driving behavior (especially emergency vehicles). Both companies got lumped in together, but this seemed to stop as soon as Cruise paused operations.

It's nice that Austin will get a chance to see Waymo first, and have the ability to differentiate between the performance whenever Tesla launches. It'd be great if both performed flawlessly, but I have my doubts about one of these companies ability to act responsibly...

NullHypothesist··on Ask HN: What's the state of self-driving cars in 2025? Tesla, etc.
Waymo is offering L4 rides in multiple cities and scaling fast; they're largely considered to be the leader in the space by a wide margin.

Zoox is just starting to offer L4 rides in Las Vegas & Sf. It's trailing Waymo by a few years, but has good design & core tech.

Tesla is taking a very different & controversial approach, and is generally viewed, by most people with knowledge of the industry (armchair experts on X aside), as far behind in core technology for L4 cars, but as having the best driver assist system. I think they're in for a rude awakening when they try to launch 'real' self-driving cars in Austin, but time will tell.

Overall, do yourself a favor, and check out Waymo videos on youtube.

NullHypothesist··on Waymo to Begin Testing in New Orleans
Looks like this is just a limited window, with no public access, but they seem to be getting ready to expand very quickly, very soon.
NullHypothesist··on OpenAI: Introduction to Deep Research [video]
Youtube Livestream at 4pm PDT
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