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Kon-Peki

4,717 karma · joined December 13, 2021

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Kon-Peki··on Anthropic blames Claude AI for 'embarrassing' legal filing error
> Claude had indeed been used to format legal citations in the document.

Ah, they replaced a boring, well-tested, deterministic piece of automation software with an LLM.

Kon-Peki··on Speeding duck: Switzerland traffic cameras catch flying mallard
Ok, I will assume that the speed of the duck is accurate because the machine has been properly calibrated.

What if there just happened to also be a slow car in the photo? How do you prove that the reported speed is that of the duck and not of the car?

Kon-Peki··on Speeding duck: Switzerland traffic cameras catch flying mallard
More importantly, what would have happened if a car (that was not speeding) just happened to be visible in the photo?

I’ve never received an automated speeding violation, but have received turn-on-red ones before. In those cases, the violation includes a link where you can see a video of the whole scenario and offers a button to click where you claim it was not actually a violation. Hopefully the speed cameras also have such a system where you have some reference points to calculate time travelled between frames in the video (with a know frame rate).

Kon-Peki··on US District Ct. for W. Pa. allows removal of Venezuelans under Alien Enemies Act [pdf]
I read the whole thing.

TLDR: the court is saying that the government needs to stop fucking around. The Supreme Court says that these folks get time to challenge their removal, and therefore the government must give them a reasonable amount of time.

It also says that if the government can establish that this guy is covered by the president’s proclamation, he most certainly can be removed under the Alien Enemies Act.

Kon-Peki··on As US vuln-tracking falters, EU enters with its own security bug database
The EU Cyber Resilience Act, which is now in effect (but not fully enforced until 2027/2028), has additional details and also includes a reporting requirement (articles 14, 15, and 16).
Kon-Peki··on The Ewing Conspiracy: Was the 1985 NBA draft rigged? (2015)
Eh, it seems like there is a good chance they put their thumb on the scale for the publicity of Ewing in New York.

But the Knicks were still a last place team with him, and all the attention for the next 5 years was in Boston, Los Angeles, Chicago and Detroit.

The team that got screwed the most ended up with a hall of fame player. And in the prior draft Jordan was the #3 pick. Does rigging the draft actually get you much?

Kon-Peki··on Spending <1% of Your Time on Taxes Is a Mistake
Indeed, it’s fun to imagine a world in which the $1,000,000 AirBNB property you buy is 80% structure and 20% short-lived assets for depreciation purposes. The land is free!

And only $40,000 per year in mortgage interest, property taxes, etc!

Kon-Peki··on Even Tesla's Insurance Arm Is Getting Wrecked
TSLA is in the S&P 500, which guarantees a certain level of demand.

It has met all the criteria for removal (there are 20-30 changes every year, even profitable companies get removed) but obviously won’t be until Musk angers Trump enough for them to have the political cover to do it. When that happens, look out below.

Kon-Peki··on Dead Reckoning
At that time, the Straits of Magellan were “controlled” by Spain and it would have been extremely difficult to sail through undetected.

Plus, it’s like sailing through a maze where if you touch the wall you die. You really should have someone that’s been through it many times before. Even in modern times, they require local pilots to guide ships.

Kon-Peki··on Era of U.S. dollar may be winding down
Presumably, for the dollar to be the world’s reserve currency the world needs to have sufficient excess reserves to be able to buy lots of US Treasuries.

If there were some event or events that causes a dramatic contraction in world trade and set off financial crises around the world, many countries may be unable to buy treasuries in the same quantity.

A potentially scary thought exercise may be to figure out what the collective reduction in treasury purchases needs to be before it all blows up. I have no clue what that number may be.

But I have a feeling that if the dollar ceases to be the reserve currency, it will not be because the world has decided on something else.

Kon-Peki··on Citadel Lobbies for Four-Year Non-Competes
Sounds like it is going to result in much higher minimum salaries required to entice “key” people to move to Florida. For all businesses, not just Citadel.
Kon-Peki··on Apple: "millions to billions" lost without App Store commissions
To be clear: I’m not Tim Cook, I don’t work at Apple, and I’ll play no role in any decision that is made. I also have no inside information.

It’s hard to believe that the annual developer fee plus the revenue from the small minority of devs for which paying the Apple commission makes sense will cover the cost of running the App Store.

I don’t think you will get that choice. The App Store either goes away (for non-Apple software) or the cost structure changes such that it doesn’t matter who your payment provider is.

I could be wrong!

Kon-Peki··on Sen. Cotton's bill would require AI chips to track location, curbing Chinese use
It’s fairly easy to read and understand. I’m not sure how well it would work, but people with more relevant experience could offer better analysis.

https://www.cotton.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/chips.pdf

Kon-Peki··on Apple: "millions to billions" lost without App Store commissions
It was a chain of their own decisions that got them here.

But yes, it is hard to imagine a way for the App Store to exist in its current form if the ruling stands. If you can use an outside payment provider taking a 3-5% cut, nobody is going to use Apple directly and pay 15/30%.

What are some of the options? No 1st-party App Store? Dramatically increased annual dev fee? Devs pay a per-GB fee for customer downloads of “free” apps?

Kon-Peki··on WeightWatchers files bankruptcy
There isn’t much publicly-available information with hard numbers (probably on purpose), but it appears that you need a huge amount of unrealized gains for buy-borrow-die to make sense. This implies that it is a very expensive scheme to run.

If you pay 50 cents to a financial service provider to avoid paying 1 dollar to the government, you’ve definitely come out ahead and the government has definitely lost. But the real winner is probably the financial service provider that is mostly pushing paper around rather than figuring out how to create the multi-billion dollar business that is needed to start the whole process in the first place.

Kon-Peki··on Attempted assassination of Franklin D Roosevelt (1933) [video]
Note that Cermak eventually died from his wounds, resulting in a street getting named after him. On that street was a giant printing building converted into a data center, becoming one of the most important internet connection points for a few decades.

A lot of people here have probably dealt with computers inside of or connected to 350 E Cermak/CHI1. There’s your tech connection to Roosevelt :)

Kon-Peki··on First American pope elected and will be known as Pope Leo XIV
During those years when he was a young kid, the White Sox were a very good team.

The Cubs were awful. But they had Ernie Banks.

Kon-Peki··on First American pope elected and will be known as Pope Leo XIV
Beyond the age of 8, apparently.
Kon-Peki··on Mississippi Can't Possibly Have Good Schools
> this is a school system that fails

I never disagreed on this point.

Now what? Every morning, kids wake up a day older. Is there a way to hit pause so you have time to go in and fix it?

Kon-Peki··on First American pope elected and will be known as Pope Leo XIV
He’s a far south sider. 99% chance of being a Sox fan.

EDIT - apparently a Cubs guy

Incidentally, the steel mill very close to where he grew up was idled due to the effects of Trump tariffs this week.

Kon-Peki··on Mississippi Can't Possibly Have Good Schools
This way of thinking is how we end up with a ton of spending and not a ton of results.

I strongly suspect that Mississippi should be allocating more resources to education. But this is a political problem and the schools have nearly no say in whether the legislature does or does not increase funding.

So. Do we close down the schools and wait until it is resolved?

Or do the schools do the best they can with the resources they have? Do you have evidence that placing kids in the most skill-appropriate classroom is a worse use of available resources than placing them in the “correct” classroom based on age or previous cohort?

Kon-Peki··on What New Orleans Taught Me
> they tried to get the guy to take a foreman gig so they could skimp on his payout.

That’s federal law; nothing to do with the company or New Orleans.

Glossing over a lot of nuance, but if you can offer the person what amounts to a lifetime (or at least long-term???) job at the same or better pay that they can reasonably do with their new disability, there is no standing for a workers comp claim.

Kon-Peki··on Apple Lost but That Doesn't Mean Epic Won Anything
If all the free-to-download apps move to 3rd party payment providers to reduce the 15/30% fee that Apple collects, I wonder how Apple responds. It pretty much blows a hole in the business model.

Will developers have to pay a per-GB charge for downloads from the store for free apps? For all apps? Maybe close down the store altogether and say you have to sideload everything. Focus on the sandboxing, system permissions, and notarization only?

Until we know how this plays out it’s hard to know who comes out of it a winner. We just know Apple lost.

Kon-Peki··on Quebec refuses to reinvest in Lion Electric
> Public Auction Due to closure of US EV Manufacturing facility – Short Notice!

https://workingmancapital.com/auction/lion-electric-chicago-...

Kon-Peki··on House votes to block California from banning sales of gas cars by 2035
It’s a dumb move. For starters, there was virtually zero chance California would have followed through with it.

And then you have the fact that if California really wanted to get rid of ICE cars, there are plenty of other things they can do that are worse than this. Astronomical gasoline taxes, registration fees, licensing requirements, etc. Requiring extraordinarily costly seismic retrofits on oil refineries. Require huge bonds on fuel stations to cover potential cleanup costs, etc.

Kon-Peki··on Law Enforcement Can Break 77% of 'Three Random Word' Passwords
> confirmed that “up to 77.5% of passwords,” created this way can be “cracked using a 30% common-word dictionary subset.”

Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t this mean that up to 77.5% of passwords known to be exactly three words can be cracked using a 30% common-word dictionary subset?

Kon-Peki··on What Happens When There Are No Deals? – Paul Krugman
And it was well on the way to falling out of the news until a plane crash that killed a sitting Congressman. And in the wreckage, they find the wife of one of the conspirators with $10k in cash in her purse. He eventually has a breakdown worrying about what happens to his kids if he goes to prison for a long time, and asks for a plea deal.
Kon-Peki··on Reports of the death of California High-Speed Rail have been greatly exaggerated
At the high level, it made huge sense to create a Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal -QC route.

Up until a few months ago, the plan was to create a new link between Toronto/Detroit/Chicago and upgrade the links between Toronto/New York City and Montreal/New York City. In this previous world view in which we were all friends, getting as many larger Canadian cities as possible connected to this rail network was worth the cost.

Kon-Peki··on Widespread power outage in Spain and Portugal
> Small diesels could be an option but they're harder to pull start for a given size.

I once needed to jump-start a small marine diesel, many miles from land...

There was a small lever that cuts compression. You have to get it spinning really fast before restoring compression! It's definitely a lot of work!

EDIT - Here is a cheap modern small marine diesel [1]. The operation manual suggests that you don't have to do anything to get it spinning quickly, you just have to crank it 10 times, put away the crank handle, and then flip the compression switch. That's progress!

[1] https://www.yanmar.com/marine/product/engines/1gm10-marine-d...

Kon-Peki··on I wrote a book called "Crap Towns". It seemed funny at the time
Vindication like what Ohioans would have felt when Charles Dickens visited America and said that St. Louis was a nice enough place, but “not likely ever to vie, in point of elegance or beauty, with Cincinnati”?
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