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Ilverin

174 karma · joined December 30, 2012

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Ilverin··on Measuring Long-Term Causal Impact of Ads on LinkedIn Users
IRBs are not legally required, and most IRBs are excessively risk-averse (an IRB doesn't lose anything for denying a study, but a study with a bad outcome can give those on the IRB a bad reputation).

Suppose you are ethically allowed to do A (show ads), and are ethically allowed to do B (not show ads). Then you are ethically allowed to run an experiment in which the only thing you do is A or B.

You can definitely argue that showing ads (or certain ads) is ethically bad. You can also argue that there should be legal requirements for ethics reviews on all research (which is not currently the law).

Ilverin··on Plausible Deniability and Gaslighting in Fighting Ad Blockers
https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/06/14/the-virtue-of-silence/
Ilverin··on AMD Radeon VII Review: An Unexpected Shot at the High End
Per square millimeter, memory costs less than gpu silicon. (and Radeon VII's memory takes up more square millimeters than half).

https://www.anandtech.com/show/13923/the-amd-radeon-vii-revi...

(Also yield decrease per transistor added is nonlinear, so going from a 331 square mm to say 495 square mm would probably decrease yields by roughly half, even though number of transistors would be less than doubled).

Ilverin··on AMD Radeon VII Review: An Unexpected Shot at the High End
'Yields' are what fraction of the chips produced end up usable rather than damaged/broken. With 7nm, yields are down. With larger chips by area, yields are always lower than smaller chips.

So AMD can save money by putting extra memory rather than gpu silicon because the memory costs less than gpu silicon.

https://www.engadget.com/2019/02/07/amd-radeon-vii-review-vi...

Ilverin··on Why ‘Free Trading’ on Robinhood Isn’t Really Free
If a Robinhood user thinks they are getting the wrong prices when they buy or sell, then they should seriously contact the SEC because that is illegal (as far as I know the prices aren't wrong).

The reason guaranteed small-scale trade orders are valuable is because they are a way to avoid 'salami tactics' which involve slowly building up to a large order. By the end of a larger order the price will have moved, and the earlier 'sliced' traders will be disappointed.

Ilverin··on Amazon Employee: We Shouldn’t Sell Facial Recognition Tech to Police
If both sides are bad, then helping either side accomplishes nothing good unless it ends the war sooner. If the side you support is enforcing a blockade and causing harm to civilians, that is a bad thing while it lasts.

In reality, the Saudis have no realistic plan to win in Yemen, so helping them will not end the war anytime soon. In the meantime, Yemen has the worst famine in the last 100 years.

Ilverin··on Amazon Employee: We Shouldn’t Sell Facial Recognition Tech to Police
> If you do not believe that people should profit from increasing the lethality of the military, then you do not believe in the utility of having a military.

Alternative: You can believe that circumstances dictate if the military is doing good or bad things. If the military is doing bad things, it is a reasonable argument to oppose them. Clearest example is Yemen.

A less clear and debateable example is: the excessive size of the US military may cause other countries like Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran to build up their own militaries to defend themselves when they would otherwise reduce their military spending. In some cases, mutual disarmament can work, however, it hasn't been tried sufficiently hard (e.g. USA hasn't ever proposed reducing its number of aircraft carriers by treaty, so carriers require asymmetrical warfare capability in order to deter aggression from USA).

Ilverin··on Timeline of the far future
Mathematically that's irrelevant to finding planets with an integer ratio of days per year. Integers are still integers no matter what base you express them in.
Ilverin··on Google winning 98% ad spots it auctions off, after order to treat others equally
I think this effect is small because of opportunity cost.

In Case A, google wins the bid, they gain the ad space, but gain no revenue.

In Case B, google does not win the bid, they lose the ad space, but do gain revenue.

Revenue and ad space are mutually exclusive, each is the opportunity cost of the other. Yes, in both cases google wins, but that is because google is the reason the ad space exists in the first place.

Ilverin··on Why are bones not made of steel? (2010)
This kingpin story is not likely to be true.

http://johnhawks.net/weblog/topics/urban_legends/henry_fords...

Ilverin··on How Big Banks Became Our Masters
There are 2 sides to the economy, supply and demand.

Yes, the policies you describe do boost demand and that does cause inflation, but the supply side is not irrelevant. Less NIMBYism will help with housing costs, and maybe some reform could help with education supply. If demand is increasing (for example due to population growth and finance), ideally supply should also be able to increase.

Ilverin··on The Class of 2017 – Raising America's Pay
Free trade has 3 kinds of benefits: #1 All consumers benefit #2 Vast majority of workers in the poorer country #3 Some number of workers in the richer country

Basically, for every unemployed worker in the USA, there's a Chinese worker who benefited. In addition there are new jobs in the USA (such as in entertainment or banking or information technology).

For this reason, both countries benefit in aggregate but if outcompeted workers fail to adjust to a different job, specific workers can suffer (like Mexican farmers suffered from NAFTA).

Economists favor free trade, but they also favor redistribution of some of the gains of trade to the losers (this redistribution hasn't been done historically).

http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/china-us-trade

http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2017/04/does_trade_with....

Ilverin··on What Happened to the Thiel Fellows
An alternative view is: "If you're already successful, everything you could learn at a college you can also learn out of college (see: the internet)".
Ilverin··on Verizon Workers Strike on East Coast After Deadline Passes
2.7% profit is not really razor-thin.

According to economists, over the "long term", profits tend to 0%. Wireline technologies are quite old, it seems the long term is here.

Ilverin··on When will we find aliens?
http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/greatfilter.html

"Humanity seems to have a bright future, i.e., a non-trivial chance of expanding to fill the universe with lasting life. But the fact that space near us seems dead now tells us that any given piece of dead matter faces an astronomically low chance of begating such a future. There thus exists a great filter between death and expanding lasting life, and humanity faces the ominous question: how far along this filter are we?

"Combining standard stories of biologists, astronomers, physicists, and social scientists would lead us to expect a much smaller filter than we observe. Thus one of these stories must be wrong. To find out who is wrong, and to inform our choices, we should study and reconsider all these areas."

Ilverin··on “So many people spend their working lives doing jobs they think are unnecessary”
Marketing/advertising is a bullshit job 99% of the time (the only time it isn't is when the product you are marketing is not well known and is a better option for some people than a competitor's product).
Ilverin··on The Trans-Pacific Partnership clause everyone should oppose
What is the United States doing currently that deserves sanctions?
Ilverin··on FCC Passes Strict Net Neutrality Regulations on 3-2 Vote
For those who might not know, it's possible Netflix could benefit from paid prioritization: it would protect Netflix from start-ups aiming to take the place of Netflix.

I'm not sure what Netflix's official stance is on net neutrality, but it's possible Mr. Cuban thinks this way.

Ilverin··on Scientists say they’ll soon extend life ‘well beyond 120’
"doing so on a large scale is almost guaranteed to be a disaster"

Over the past centuries, human life expectancy has increased greatly and yet we have a much higher quality of life. It's an extraordinary claim to suggest that the continuance of this already-existing trend is 'almost guaranteed to be a disaster'.

Ilverin··on Our lander’s asleep
Not directly relevant, but why not spend the minute necessary to google whether the explanation for "How did the primary and secondary batteries not power the lander for the calculated one week+ of operation?" is readily available? (it is:

The harpoons failed to deploy leading the lander to bounce off of its landing target and land in a crater where the solar panels intended to increase its battery life had limited sunlight. http://www.vox.com/2014/11/13/7214941/philae-comet-rosetta

)

Ilverin··on Russia extends Snowden residency by three years
If there are Russian soldiers in Ukraine supporting rebels, the actions of Russia are without question much worse than any of the actions taken by the US.
Ilverin··on There Are Whales Alive Today Who Were Born Before Moby Dick Was Written
As regards origination from ungulates: More recent data suggests origination from artiodactyls.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolution_of_cetaceans#Earliest...

Ilverin··on Stop Secret Copyright Treaties
Can anyone explain to me how this is a secret treaty?

My understanding is that the only way the treaty actually comes into effect for its main participant (the USA) is a vote in the Senate, which would make it a public treaty.

Or does the domain of 'secret treaty' include all treaties that were at one point secret (such as during the negotiations)? Doesn't this make the majority of significant treaties 'secret treaties'?

Ilverin··on Post Scarcity Economics
Fresh clean water may only happen along sources of water, not likely to happen in the desert. But along those sources of water, it should happen pretty fast. If electricity becomes free, desalination follows basically the next day.
Ilverin··on App Store Pricing: Worth Less than a Cup of Coffee
I would argue that authors are with software engineers on this. You can find many free works online from authors who were unable to get a publisher interested. They may not be as organized as software engineers, but they are definitely out there.
Ilverin··on What did the tech CEO say to the worker he wanted to automate?
They generally also believe in the invisible hand of the capitalist market.
Ilverin··on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality just got several fascinating updates
He said that he is done through chapter 96, and implied that it might be the end (said at chapter 86 that there were "2 or 3" arcs left, and arcs tend to be about 4 chapters...).
Ilverin··on Is it too late to be awesome?
In the case of the fly, von Neumann probably just calculated the length of the first and second trip and calculated the sum using the self-similarity of the series.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_series#Sum

Ilverin··on Brain work may be going the way of manual work
The "Moore's Law" used in the article "that the computing power available for a given price doubles about every 18 months" is correct, but it is a slight redefinition of the actual "Moore's Law".

In any case, the costs are going down, the number of cores are growing, and, more importantly, computing power is not restricted to CPUs (see GPUs/APUs).

Ilverin··on How to prevent a meritocracy entrenching itself
The author might respond "They are less gameable than the 'standardised' tests, and the 'standardised' tests are even narrower than the intelligence tests".
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