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Fordec

2,221 karma · joined August 15, 2018

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Fordec··on Japan has changed in important and visible ways
That's what people do, but to do so they need to work in growth industries and geographies. Otherwise you don't make enough to do just that. Thus they go somewhere that does, in this case Tokyo mostly. Which makes the situation worse for the prefectures that they leave causing brain drain, and now those that stayed need to have the taxation to cover for the two they were already on the hook for, and now the two that the person gone to individualistically "save for their own retirement".

This generally leads to services and infrastructure getting shut down. Not more stuff spread out to less people because certain modern lifestyle features, things like hospitals, need a minimum level of patients and experts to function well above zero.

Fordec··on Japan has changed in important and visible ways
2.1 is steady state of just one for one replace those dying with new people.

What numbers around 1.0 are are logarithmic decline as the population functionally keeps halving which is also hard to plan an economy around paying for two old people and child on the taxes per single worker.

Fordec··on Japan has changed in important and visible ways
A fertility rate of 1.3 is still a demographic crisis. Just because the neighbors degraded to the same level also isn't supposed to be a point of pride.

Japan at 1.3 and China at 1.2 are both far below replacement rate of 2.1 and both are heavily detrimental to a nations economic and demographic outlook and on par with only the European with the worst outlooks like Spain, Italy and Ukraine.

Fordec··on ASML Q4 2022 financial results
The main company there is Zeiss in Germany that makes all the high grade optics. Part of the reason ASML is Dutch is it has access to the German precision manufacturing up-stream, quite literally.
Fordec··on Current and future role of Haber–Bosch ammonia in a carbon-free energy env(2020)
Would subscribe to this newsletter if you were to pursue the problem. Have lots of interest in the space but zero of the resources, access to sun, space or chemistry skillset so can only live vicariously on the topic.
Fordec··on Strava hikes monthly subscription price
Well my Netflix and UberEats bills are $0 and if a subscription service is to be compared to a basic human need as food itself, that's a bit of a complete misunderstanding of a general humans hierarchy of needs. That applies to any entertainment service.
Fordec··on This Voice Doesn't Exist – Generative Voice AI
The key will be authenticity and trust. And in the world where the percentage of online content that contains this ends up in the vast minority of content, in person expertise and meetings will have to make a return out of sheer necessity.

It's starting to very much feel like we're entering the age of information manipulation outlined in the Ghost in the Shell TV series. Except it isn't a 90's/00's depiction of the future, it's just with far less robots and prosthetics and a lot more mundane.

I just keep coming back to the scene where they have satellite video footage of a nuclear submarine preparing for a nuclear attack and the discussion lamenting that it's just video, nobody will believe it as evidence.

Fordec··on UPS and the package wars
Intelcom is totally undercutting them for sure. If I get an Intelcom email, I know it's showing up on time as stated. Meanwhile, if it's UPS, well I'm still waiting on a package at I ordered 2 months ago coming from the US a 2.5 hour drive away. It has been chilling in Pennsylvania for the majority of that period which was supposed to arrive today after contacting support yet has been pushed out another week two hours after the described delivery window today.
Fordec··on Caltech to launch space solar power technology demo into orbit
Only works if your bases are at the poles. Which for some missions works, but it's a limitation if your project needs to be anywhere else.
Fordec··on Tesla’s 2022 Collapse Hits 69% After Deepest Selloff Since April
A stock that never rose on fundamentals (Tesla stock at its peak valuation was more than GM and Ford combined, their fundamentals were never that good) will also fall regardless of fundamentals.

If the argument is about Tesla stock was worth that because of future expectations, then this fall can just be equally described as based on future expectations. Tesla still has a 33.7 P/E ratio, it could still fall another 50% again before the valuation is "worth it" depending on what metric you personally decide to base your investments.

Fordec··on How Twitter moderated the Covid debate
Created? Please, it was already there. Gestures vaguely at every Libertarian, (Neo-)Luddite, Jenny Mccarthy and basically the city of Portland.
Fordec··on Twitter Suspends @Joinmastodon
He says on HN.
Fordec··on A circuit simulator that doesn't look like it was made in 2003
And on the good software the 2D interfaces take customizable color parameters, any level detail you like 3D files, customizable fonts.

Just take 20 minutes to customize a settings file and reuse for every new project after, iterating as you go and you'll get yourself pretty realistic outputs long term.

Fordec··on Fosshost Is Shutting Down
I'd be quite interested to hear the Radix Projects governance plans to prevent a future single point of failure again. Not being able to contact the bill payer on the last project isn't helplessness, it's a failure of the created organizational structures to have planned redundancy, succession and legal accountability.
Fordec··on Meta lays off 11,000 people
Or rather the person who is responsible should go before those who are not and have been doing their job.

If a middle manager was responsible for a bad decision, their head would be on a spike. But it's the chief executive officer, so he gets a pass, if only because he's in the position of power.

Fordec··on Leaked documents outline DHS’s plans to police disinformation
Literal wrongthink. What is ideology but looking at the world or a problem through a certain personal experience context.

If this is what flies, CNN are guilty of malinformation daily, through their use of editorialising, never mind more fringe stuff.

Fordec··on Twitter execs fired by Musk may not get their “golden parachutes”
Stepping back from whether this ends in a lawsuit etc.

But why would smart people looking to earn a living work for Musk after this? He'll fire you for cause just because he doesn't like you or didn't let him win. That's not the foundation of a stable career.

Because this had nothing to do with whether they did a good job, because they clearly did their fiduciary duty to their shareholders and are clearly great at what they do due to what they have achieved. If you work for Tesla, SpaceX and not definitely Twitter, why are your comp packages trusted to be worth anything until they are cashed?

Fordec··on GitHub Copi­lot inves­ti­ga­tion
There are laws covering that use case. It just depends on the country. Assuming your countries laws is the law everywhere is a bit of a fallacy.
Fordec··on Stable Diffusion is a big deal
For every tool, a better output will always be created by people who specialize in a craft. Just as photoshop revolutionized photography, to this day you can tell the difference easily between and bad 'shops.

In video games upon release everyone is bad and its an even playing field. But as people practice and gain experience they improve their usage, refine their approaches. You eventually see metas develop and best practices.

This will all be exactly the same. Just give it some time and watch professionals create professional outputs compared to paying for some base level work on Fiverr or whatever.

Fordec··on How to Make a CubeSat
When the launch costs get from $10k per kg currently get down to around $100-$500 per kg
Fordec··on How to Make a CubeSat
yeah, but they pivoted to ground-station based software instead of true in flight services and got bought for their ground component piece of the equation. The business plan as originally that entailed didn't work out. Just too early to the game IMO rather than a bad idea. But the market dynamics that they were under in the 2016-2019 era are still today mostly the same market dynamics in 2022.
Fordec··on How to Make a CubeSat
It's not good enough to just send something up and have at it as a customer. Any High school with enough money for an off the shelf kit can do that, snap a picture and write home for the bragging rights. But due to the constraints of energy, volume, distance and other factors you'll just end up with a quality result no better or worse than what you could get from a much cheaper weather balloon just with less logistics to worry about.

Until rockets get a lot cheaper, (come on Starship, deliver on your promise) to get a result that is commercially viable from such a timeshare option, you need to tailor your payload to deliver an outcome that can be actually desired. Everything is a trade off, and until the satellites get 5-10x cheaper to launch again, you're under very tight constraints and you truly have to trade off every other aspect (wavelength, sensor type, resolution, power level, communication budget, mass budget, geographic spread/location, orbital height) to get one good specific outcome in a 10x10x10cm form factor. Yes, you can fit mobile phone electronics in these things. But they are usually 200km+ away from what they need to measure. Until consumer off the shelf electronics can give you the sensor readings you need from an entire country distance away, the requirements is still going to need an act of true cutting edge engineering if your goal is to operate for-profit.

This is not impossible mind you, the industry will continue to mature. But it's a world of the future, not a world of the present.

Fordec··on The case against a C alternative
GCC 13 will support Rust.
Fordec··on The Rise and Peak of Japanese Semiconductors
Which is why I doubt Caspian Report. Anytime he ventures into Western Europe it's either so high level it's basically meaningless (Brexit will change relationships with EU members? You don't say!) or just way off base. Eg. For UK-Newzealand to sign a trade deal, the US decides what happens because... it's geographically between them? I guess assuming the world is flat?

I find the same with Peter Zeihan. In depth researched accurate data.. used to construct always wrong predictions. Eg. Alberta to secede from Canada and become the 51st state because oil pipeline infrastructure.

Fordec··on Electrical engineers on the brink of extinction threaten entire tech ecosystems
Hi there, I fit your bill.

Not interested though because after 9 years of sensor experience software just pays triple my best pay in those years with easier deliverables. Never again.

Fordec··on Unity merges with IronSource
Turns out its more analogous to think of terror as the toast and war as the jam
Fordec··on Congratulations: We now have opinions on your open source contributions
We've seen it with social media and content moderation. It's just a little ahead of the game because more people means entities come to the conclusion faster.

Content hosts have hosting rules. Don't like updated rules? Move to another network or self host. You as a platform user have to weigh the pros and cons that come with that decision.

Personally I have stopped contributing to open source due to consumer expectations around free work. My passion projects are now all private and they are all mine or employers who gain from my learnings by paying me. If that's a loss to society, well society can figure out the cost-benefit analysis and get back to me with a better proposal.

Side not: upon going down this rabbit hole, I find that Facebook/Zuckerberg is their primary sponsor[0] and the fact that auth is becoming more of a thing leaves me with zero surprise

[0] https://pypi.org/sponsors/

Fordec··on Tell HN: GitHub Copilot can now block suggestions matching public code
And if yes, what happens if I replace the word "model" with "employee"? Suddenly the context changes?
Fordec··on On leaving Mapbox after 12 years
I'd suggest reading their terms of service and licensing model. They changed it on their 2.0 version and it stopped being right for a lot of use cases, either for financial, privacy or legal reasons. Make sure it fits for yourself also.
Fordec··on Shortsightedness has become an epidemic
Short answer, yes.

Long answer, you'll need to really jack up the power consumption. Replicating a thing that in itself an energy source needs waaaay more than just a 60W light bulb.

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