Fordec

Judging by comment history, this new month old account of yours is just for shitting on AI development isn't it?

Software factories don't exist is an easily falsifiable statement https://github.com/topics/software-factory

If AI development is like management, harnesses will totally end up orchestrating people like traditional management does. The end state of the Jev type model hype is that a few years from now decision models replace management decision. Disconnected human managers five levels away from the work make suboptimal decisions all the time, the same logic applied to self driving cars can play out here. The model doesn't need to be perfect, it just needs to make better informed decisions than your fallible VP.

This is great, more access did provide more eyes on these problems.

But, does that all of these being found now call into question, not the open source model logic itself, but the ability of human eyes to find security issues? These vulnerabilities have been sitting here for however long, but how many thousands of humans did not find them before AI?

Also, while it's clearly got a lot of training on some use cases, others that probably weren't in the training set have worse good decision rates than a random number generator. If you can rebuild the architecture, you can train it on your use case.

Since you know the truth, and on what date was that order put in? Why did it have to be in 2026 and not during the planning process in previous years?

I think the idea of a "feature startup" is dead. What used to be a niche subscription business is now an individual Epic level of work. The smallest viable business becomes what two or three years ago was a mid tier enterprise. It is no longer "look at this tool I maintain", but "we take this specific approach using these hundreds of tools merged together to solve a problem in a specific way that nobody is going to compete with. Not because they can't compete if they wanted to, but that the competitions approach diverges in fifty different chosen ways that they are targeting a different market segment essentially."

I adhere to the idea that this is software's "Tower of Babel" moment where everyone just fundamentally ships things in completely diverging architectures, because creating a ground up architecture is no longer something that needs to be avoided for an economically viable business mode that in the past two decades would have otherwise incentivized people into industry standards. In a world where "taste" is the focus, single ingredients in the recipe aren't enough.

Considering how core Wireguard is to the whole Tailscale value proposition, are they funding the future of that V2 roadmap on the open source side? If the answer is "no", and because the security world isn't going to stay put (particularly with AI math advancements happening lately are accelerating medium term risk), then one has to assume Tailscale is working on it's own in-house "V2" equivalent protocol for post-quantum support to enable that vision? I doubt you're doing nothing.

Australia doesn't have protected speech. We're starting to see the dam break where rules that were left unexplored because it would go against the US driven view of globalization is starting to wane due to the US's loss (self destruction?) of its soft power.

The security of this list is essentially the motivation of the plot of Mission Impossible (1996). Except that's the just list of undercover agents, not he whole agency.

I ran into this exact issue and had Claude write a test run scheduler to avoid cargo process contention and migrated to nextest within it. I have --release build cycles on my local machine down to about three seconds from what was for the same project 60+ seconds before investing in the changes.

Which only changes the title and your new bottleneck is product engineers struggling to come up with new product ideas worth doing month over month. While also half of their job is still the engineering side of the problem with less customer centric time.

I mean, looking at the release notes for things like say the Linux kernel it is clear that the improvements are there at a massive rate of change. But it's small stuff, it's performance improvements, it's quality of life. If you do things right people will think you've done nothing at all. What did you expect? Businesses to come up with whole new business lines, or is it just that backlogs of work is getting burned down that was going to be gotten to eventually? From what I can tell from the PM forums, the next bottleneck is the Product Org coming up with ideas worth implementing as fast as the developers can deliver them.

I expect average human wages for programming to get lower and the overall percentage of the developer to move lower wage countries and this probably means away from the US and US salary expectations. Meat proxies and agentic CRUD will be off-shored to low wage Asian or even African countries with AI handling language barriers. Why wouldn't they be? Why pay six figures for a meat proxy? Product Builders should weather the storm the most, but they'll be the high end skilled PMs/engineers that of the overall industry but probably won't break 10% of total global headcount. In a world where knowing the domain will be the key driver of differentiation, as building averages out and knowing the customer and how to market to them becomes the differentiator, being closer to the target market will fragment competition from four global winners with over 10k employees in a space to 100 niche/regionally tailored winners with maybe 500 employees a piece. Not to mention if you thought GDPR was a pain, wait until AI laws that vary by country to country get added in.

I also expect as AI becomes more cost sensitive once the quality plateaus (there's only so many ways to get an answer to 100% right), the data centers are going to chase where the cheap power is, and this long term is likely to be in high-solar locations. So lower latitudes. Doesn't rule out places like Texas of course, but places like India, Mexico, Brazil, Israel or Saudi Arabia will have home field advantages.

The point isn't that "doing math" is safe. Auto-research solves one target variable in one system, doing it at scale where say one developer is SME for the agentically manged 200 microservices down the line, heh I mean you certainly can, but good luck with that token cost of auto-research when that problem space is O(microservice^2). I point at that example yesterday of that optimized database memory with the comments pointing out that the specific problem fit in memory, over optimized and didn't generalize. The problem isn't the work, but the rework. A historian should know that new solutions to problems doesn't lead to "no problems ever again" but only problems with barriers that the new solution doesn't solve.

This sort of thing makes me thing that we're about to enter an era where software development is going to be where most of the jobs fallout will be. You can't one-shot vibe code your way to this. But for proper Software Engineering, those jobs are safe where more and more problems are going to actually need solving by creatively using math because all the problems individuals deliver are just going to be larger. People are just mourning the loss of the low hanging fruit.

Huh. Do these work in a vacuum? Presumably if sealed right? I imagine there's a few space applications, particularly with solar panels.

A Tree if you will

When people have an incentive to build that fast and cut corners (which they will). Under normal circumstances dotting the i's and crossing they t's, it's 5 to 7 years. Remember, the US is temporarily running low on missiles because of how much explosives Trump dropped on Iran. They blew up a petrostate level of petroleum infrastructure to the tune of $58B in damages of specialized engineering, about 15% of the country's total GDP. If recreating that in a quarter was possible, everyone with a drop of oil under their toes would do it.

The main point of news I heard was that the Iran infrastructure the US destroyed, in a time where they are allowed to repair it and not just get bombed again, will take three years to repair. Oil prices don't get "cheap" again this side of 2030. Not to mention that there is a bunch of Russian infrastructure that is still on the chopping block to be destroyed by Ukraine as that war continues. Which has the same time it takes to rebuild issues.

And I'm no bear on the tech either. I'm not even in the boat of that the tech should be slowed down yet. But in a world where anyone can produce the effort of 300 people trivially, this eventually takes us places. Electricity and industrialization introduced huge benefits upfront, it introduced new problems that needed addressing at the long tail. Lets not pretend there won't be new problems to tackle here or just "hope" it works out.

AI isn't going to create in of itself "new" problems, it's just going to expose what we already know can cause harm, but was just stopped from being bigger problems because scaling issues was a natural barrier and we took the lazy way out until now.

All of this, if it was a human analogy, would fit into discussion on how do we educate people so they grow up to be upstanding. But we don't at all yet have a framework for what is the equivalent of a justice department, where bad actors are tracked, arrested, pursued, jailed and otherwise contained from society. Shutting down an API access on one account is not at all the proportional response to what the people who take alignment seriously, fear has the chance of occurring by the late 2030s. I'm not sure we've done much or any preparation for when the AI "education system" fails and has inevitable edge cases that don't follow the plan, and what the global AI equivalent of the justice department looks like.

All the good in the world can be 99.9% of the population even, it still doesn't stop the minority enacting a bioweapon mass casualty event. It's the reason we have jails. Jails don't house 50% of the population, not even close, but the grief the minority population enact gets its whole branch of criminal justice and multiple federal departments to counteract for good reason. And now this technology will accelerate what lone wolves can do, which cannot be undone, before they are stopped by the good majority.

I can't take the alignment people seriously. Because if humanity has shown anything, it's that a lot of people are, euphemistically, are bad individuals. Alignment assumes that the person dictating the outcomes desire healthy outcomes, aren't self serving and don't want any subgroups dead and that morality is held as a universal set of beliefs that unify everyone. And that so long as the AI delivers on exactly what they are tasked with, it will all be fine and nothing bad will ever happen.

It's like these dorks never met humanity. One mans safe pure society, is another mans dead ethnic group.

Every fear about AI, is a veiled fear that a human somewhere now has the tool to enact his desires at scale. Biological warfare, nuclear megadeaths, copyright infringement, job replacement, it's all reflections on what we know humans may do if given the option and lack of societal controls on the problem space. AI just is accelerating the route to delivering on those options.

Some people need to watch Oppenheimer a bit more, the researchers don't get to determine alignment, they just build the tool. The powerful person at the top of the org chart decides where the overall alignment points, whether it's Musk, Trump, Altman or Amodei. Whoever wins out.

And the problem with distillation and local llms, isn't that it's theft or anything hypocritical like that, it's that if you give a million people a million models they fully control and get to align, inevitably, The same percentage of those million as there are shady businessmen, shortcut takers, misandrists, criminals, supremacists and general idiots in the general population, will not seek to wrought outcomes positive for society. And by those personality statistics, we're pretty hosed.

No, it's definitely a reference to the DHH/Romani drama from July and the Omarchy privilege escalation a few weeks back.

All very good questions that could end up in a court of law with a Millenium Prize on the line. In a competent world, these are very answerable from logs and considering the news cycle this is creating, should be able to be pulled up and made into a public postmortem in short order. You know, if it's all been above board that is. And if the researchers don't wish for that information to be public knowledge, it can be shared with the researchers promptly for a retraction of their statements lest some libel gets litigated.

A very simple "these two pipelines don't connect up in our architecture, here's our internal high level network diagram combined with our data ingestion opt-out feature flag that we will stand by in court" as opposed to "yeah, we don't even entirely know how our own customer facing systems are connected to our training pipeline, but it probably didn't happen".

I 100% agree with your impression. For a good while to come there's going to be a bunch of Jevons Paradox to all of this, but adoption of architectural changes like that photonics adoption is exactly the type of adaption to circumvent bottlenecks I'm referring to. We're going to hit hundreds of bottlenecks and each one will inevitably breed new approaches and technology directions. And the forcing function won't be talking about them, but implementing them, seeing who wins and taking lessons.

Which assumes the presence of an inflection point that keeps inflecting rather than revert to an S-curve. The growth model is not borne out yet to declare what shape it is.

I expect the investments into AI driven mathematic discoveries that underpin compression efficiency will be a key investment area. Particularly at the data center scale rather than per device or per file level.

For sure. Anyone who thinks that we're in the end state of what progress can be made simply lacks imagination. This is all going to keep changing and iterating for the rest of our natural lives. The only constant is change.