Which is why I doubt Caspian Report. Anytime he ventures into Western Europe it's either so high level it's basically meaningless (Brexit will change relationships with EU members? You don't say!) or just way off base. Eg. For UK-Newzealand to sign a trade deal, the US decides what happens because... it's geographically between them? I guess assuming the world is flat?

I find the same with Peter Zeihan. In depth researched accurate data.. used to construct always wrong predictions. Eg. Alberta to secede from Canada and become the 51st state because oil pipeline infrastructure.