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CraigRo

1,290 karma · joined April 23, 2019

Craig Roche is the pen name of a software developer, data scientist, and occasional writer.
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CraigRo··on [dead]
Wishful thinking. They've eliminated anyone who disagrees with them, and that includes most people with actual finance experience. They've been waiting for the second coming off a short squeeze for years
CraigRo··on [dead]
No, nor does having a huge member entitle you to strut naked. The question reeks of insecurity
CraigRo··on Oregon decriminalized hard drugs – it isn't working
Lawn darts used to be sharp and had fins. A horseshoe is blunt
CraigRo··on Indian Single Malts Could Turn the Table on Scotch
It isn't that hard to make good stuff. The Scottish distilleries are expanding massively, and as long as you can get barrels and decent weather, it is just aged distilled beer.
CraigRo··on New York restaurants fight back against reservations by bots
What I don't understand is why you can't require the holder of the reservation to show up or lose it. Destroys the incentive to resell it
CraigRo··on Wisconsin snubs bourbon by elevating the brandy Old Fashioned to state cocktail
You can get absolutely blotto trying all the variations within a few blocks of the Capitol, especially on state Street. Can't think of another state where the legislators have so many opportunities to ahem do research on their beverage related resolutions
CraigRo··on Why Mathematicians Are Hoarding This Special Type of Japanese Chalk (2015)
There's no shortage now. A Korean company now makes it, and it is still great. But if you can't find any, I have a stick on my desk
CraigRo··on Ask HN: What is the highest hourly billing rate that you have ever heard of?
1100 for lawyers
CraigRo··on SBF Guilty on All Charges
They moved heaven and earth to get it done.
CraigRo··on How Does the Largest Hedge Fund Make Its Money?
Wow. This is definitely going into Matt Levine's column!
CraigRo··on The wealthy parents of "self made" billionaires
I'm pretty sure they invested it, and have fine exceptionally well from it
CraigRo··on Sam Bankman-Fried Set to Testify at His Fraud Trial
He is a utilitarian. 20 years vs 30 in jail doesn't matter because he'll kill himself, or at least that's what he currently thinks. But a chance at zero is super valuable, so he's buying vol
CraigRo··on 30% of Americans have faced health data breaches this year
HIPAA creates huge amounts of friction in delivering medical services without actually improving security much
CraigRo··on The inflated fixation on grade inflation
The issue is that Harvard students are or should be capable of mastering huge quantities of academic work at a far more abstract level than at less competitive admissions universities. Giving an A for mastery of an average amount of work vs mastery of the full potential of the course encourages laziness and doesn't help distinguish between motivated and merely good students
CraigRo··on What Happened to San Francisco, Really?
Sf has the problem that it is not dense. Let everyone build a condo and prices will tumble
CraigRo··on California cities ban new gas stations in battle to combat climate change
2$ more per gallon in California due to existing regulatory inefficiency. Expect that to go up
CraigRo··on FTX "insurance fund" calculated by multiplying trading volume by random number
No they don't. The defense attorneys likely know it better actually (I know one). But if the guy who wrote it actually walks a prosecutor through it, it isn't that complicated
CraigRo··on What Took Down Airbnb
NYC has applied draconian rules on tenancies, and crazy restrictions on hotel construction. These units are not coming back, because the owners risk losing too much money. We'll just have knockoff Airbnb copies which will be worse for both sides
CraigRo··on Newsom vetoes a proposed ban on caste discrimination in California
Anti discrimination laws are a license for unscrupulous people to sue with basically no consequences. It is basically extortion; a stray comment can trigger a lawsuit by a contingency lawyer who usually makes more than the plaintiff
CraigRo··on More Than 80 Percent of Americans Can't Afford New Cars
You've had extremely high inflation over the past 3 years, along with a shortage of used cars. I had one totaled during peak insanity and got 7% more than I bought it for (used) 6 years earlier. But real (inflation adjusted) depreciation curves are still in existence, if slightly flatter as the cars have become more durable.
CraigRo··on Terry Tao's generals (2012)
Typically exams are 2 full professors and maybe one asst prof. That asst prof will be 3-4 years in, plus 4-5 years of grad school + often a postdoc. And that asst prof will, on average, be better than the graduate student.
CraigRo··on Terry Tao's generals (2012)
First of all, nobody ever passed these exams with flying colors unless the examiners wanted that to happen or were having a bad day. Assume that there are three full professors testing you, and they have an average of 20 years each of post-graduate experience. That's 60 years of reading -- no way that a 2nd or 3rd year graduate student can keep up. Part of the process is humiliating the students a bit -- they did this for everyone.

They also had a language requirement, which was often fulfilled by memorizing the 500 most common words in a foreign language as well as 300-500 common math terms in that language; there was a library of prepared crib sheets for these. It was kind of a running joke in that it tested your ability to translate an article from German/Russian/French into English sufficiently well to explain it to a bored examiner, but most of the students kind of looked it as a kind of giant 'Wheel of Fortune' exercise in intelligently guessing between the revealed clues.

Second, some of the other graduate students basically went insane studying for this -- one locked himself in a room with a 30 day supply of microwavable meals, and another locked himself in his dorm and (having read MicroSerfs) only ate 2 dimensional food slipped under the door. A lot of this was immature students trying to out-do each other in commitment and probably didn't markedly improve pass rates.

Tao matured, but mostly because he got older -- there were finally reasonably smart people his age studying with him. He also used to hang out with John Conway a lot, and Conway was going through his own problems; he spent more time with the 'more conventionally normal' faculty and that probably rubbed off.

CraigRo··on Striking auto workers want a 40% pay increase–the same rate their CEOs’ pay grew
Nobody who is qualified to do it... I've worked with executives at that level, and let's face it-- most of us don't have the single-minded devotion to do it, nor the experience to manage thousands of people.
CraigRo··on Nearly 1 in 4 Israelis will be ultra-Orthodox by 2050, study says
16 million people in a country smaller than New Jersey that is arid, has limited water, etc seems like a lot. Population growth rates often slow down when young people are crammed into apartments even if they are very religious. Curious if the models predict this
CraigRo··on Workers strike at all 3 Detroit automakers for bigger share of industry profits
The issue is that profits are highly cyclical, and the automakers are coming off some of their best years ever due to circumstances that are extremely unlikely to repeat. Locking those wages in is a great way to cause the next crisis.
CraigRo··on Workers strike at all 3 Detroit automakers for bigger share of industry profits
Pretty good gig: get unsustainable pay and pensions during good times. Funnel a bunch of it into politics. Get pensions guaranteed and bailed out in bad times. Been this way since the 60s
CraigRo··on The IRS plans to crack down on 1,600 Millionaires to collect back taxes
Between this and much higher marginal tax rates, a lot of them may just stop working so hard.
CraigRo··on Why It Takes Forever to Get a Doctor's Appointment
It seems that HIPAA has become more of a hindrance than a help. You can't easily book an appointment, every provider has their own interface, most of which look pre 2005, you can't send a message without 2FA in a special 'secure mailbox', and a lot of insurance companies don't let you submit info except via phone or fax. Tons of friction, and it seems that we should address this.
CraigRo··on Ask HN: Has anyone here learned COBOL for fun?
Yes, somewhat for fun and somewhat for work. There are online cobol fiddle environments that can help you. Data is stored in something like a c Union on a buffer, and the programming style is pre-procedural, sort of like a very easy assembly language. The language is very wordy, and there aren't a lot of standard libraries.

It is ok for storing and updating records, but writing complex algorithms would be slow

CraigRo··on Knightmare: A DevOps Cautionary Tale (2014)
We used to tell each other what stall we were going to. It is fun, like playing video games, but also super stressful.
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