More Than 80 Percent of Americans Can't Afford New Cars
jalopnik.com
jalopnik.com
That number is more reasonable; given that they're assuming 5-year loans, and the average car in the U.S. lasts 14 years. 5 years is close to 34% of 14 years.
How do journalists get it so wrong? It's got to be intentional, or neglectful to the point of "I'm not even trying to understand; just tell me what to print".
But what is a reasonable percentile for someone to "comfortably" afford the monthly payment for a median new car? Maybe 80 is on the high side. But it certainly isn't 50%.
10% of income as a heuristic for a car payment isn't too terrible.
I don't say this to be pedantic but to point out that cars across the board are more expensive than most people realize, and if you haven't bought a new car in a while, especially post-COVID, it can be a shock to see that a car with terrible infotainment, a cheap plastic interior, and cloth seats will run you $30-35k new. You want nice speakers? Leather (even fake)? A steering wheel that isn't made out of Fisher Price plastic? Let me know if you find something for under $50k new. God forbid you want anything approaching luxury like ventilated seats or rear seat climate control unless you're willing to drop $1k/mo on something.
https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/March-...
The us auto lending bubble is in the trillions and among the most threatening thing anyone can imagine during a recession.
It's easy to see how if you don't have the income to save and a cheap car lease is already pushing your budget you would get locked into not only leasing, but basically leasing from the same manufacturer or close competitors time and again.
I see little appeal in a new car. Huge money sink, long waiting lists, sketchy dealers, sketchy warranties, software-based without being run by software companies, and all for what? To be able to travel in an unpleasant, dangerous road system.
Buying these feels more like an obligation to avoid, not something fun and worthwhile. Like checking the mail for bills.
I'd like to say things will get messy when so many things become unaffordable, but people said that 10 years (and probably further back), so where's the real incentive to make things affordable so long as businesses stay in business?
Same trip in my EV costs $4 for electricity, $25 for parking and $30 for depreciation.
Bus should be faster because of dedicated lanes, but in practice it’s same.
The theory is that if we were to make some "Life Calculator Spreadsheet" where you take all the various recommendations like this. Save x amount of your income, this 10% car rule, basic costs, taxes, etc. and then put in various lines for different incomes,etc. And see where it all lines up.
Our theory is that it's impossible. It's impossible for even an upper middle class income earner to follow all the rules of thumb, and still exist.
The best example I've heard of this recently:
Look at the intro to the Simpsons. A blue collar worker, single income household with 2 kids could afford to own their own 2 story home, own two cars, etc. This was considered perfectly average and normal when the series started. It is not average now.
No it wasn't. They made a whole episode where a normal guy visits Springfield and points out the absurdity of Homer's 2 story home, two cars, etc: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homer%27s_Enemy
No, it wasn’t average or normal or close to those for the time. The Simpson framing wasn’t around the then-present average, it was around a classic, decades older, media image (which wasn’t average for the time it was originally framed, either.)
"The household median income in the U.S. in 1950 was $2,990 — roughly 40% of the median home value of $7,354 at the time, according to census data. By 2010, household median income was $49,445 — or 22% of the $221,800 median home value. The median income in 2021 hovers around the same percentage of median home costs."
https://orchard.com/blog/posts/how-much-the-typical-home-cos...
Most homes built in and since the 1950 are still standing and inhabited.
I'll gladly buy one of those, where can I buy one?
https://www.newser.com/story/225645/average-size-of-us-homes...
Where can I buy one?
Zoning laws and building permits block anything that's significantly cheaper.
I was told "just buy used cars with cash!" for so long when I was younger. "You don't want a loan!" I was told. I get the idea here, but wow I must have lost over $10k from ages 16 to about 22 years old on multiple "cheap" 5k cars that just absolutely died on me back to back. At a certain point I just said screw it, put down 50% on a 3 year old civic, and I haven't had one mechanical problem in going on 5 years. Paid it off in 2 years. Best decision I ever made.
In general, older people's final cars (if regularly driven at least some) tend to be in excellent condition.
Most durable goods tend to (but not always) result in a lower TCO when purchased used.
If I had a good mechanic in my family I’m sure I would have been good.
I usually buy them at 10 years old, usually paying 1/3 of new, and run them for another 10 years then sell them for roughly 1/2 of what I bought them for.
Sure, I'm the fool taking the second decade of depreciation but that's far less than the first decade and the vehicles I choose are generally very reliable out to 20 years with little maintenance. After 20 years, I've found they generally start to nickel and dime you or leave you on the side of the road.
The reality is that a five-year-old car today is most likely more reliable than a new car built 25 years ago. A similar dynamic can be observed in the cell phone market.
Across a number of segments, a 3 yr old used car with 30-50k miles will still bring close to 90% of its original MSRP on the used market.
Gone are the days where a car lost a third of its value when you drove it off the lot (for most segments).
I don't disagree with you that it feels embedded (and indeed, the American suburbs are particularly dependent on cars), but I do disagree that it could never happen. The USA has made big dramatic changes in society before, and big changes are possible again. In fact, I will say such changes are inevitable! It just depends on whether we are intentional in making those changes ourselves or if they are forced upon us by hitting the limits of an unsustainable arrangement.
I am fortunate to be a high earner in the UK relatively speaking (top 2 or 3%) yet the idea of spending £15-20k on what is essentially a "starter car" (e.g. Toyota Yaris) let alone £30-35k on a normal petrol family car (e.g. ford focus) is just crazy to me. What a waste of cash. EVs start at more like £40-50k for bottom-of-thr-barrel brands like Kia or Hyundai, let alone a premium marque. Prices seem very high.
Who are buying these new?!
Someone must be as they end up on the used market. I presume they are leased as company cars or something first.
In the aggregate, Americans, Aussies, Russians, Chinese, South Africans, Brazilians, etc need cars in a way that English, French, German and Italian generally don't.
The UK isn't. I mean it's better than the US but way behind the rest of Western Europe.
Corollary: much of the world needs a car in a way that you don't.
>Corollary: much of the world needs a car in a way that you don't.
I live without a car in the UK and can tell you it isn't easy. I manage because I'm prepared to ride a bike on reasonably busy roads and I'm time rich. The public transport is irregular, indirect and unreliable. The only exception is London.
Trade in values were good, financing rates were still good (at that point), I got to skip the mental load of evaluating the condition of the vehicle, it was a treat to have new features, and the fuel economy was superior.
I would consider both new and used vehicles for my next purchase. There are tradeoffs either way.
And implying that you can get any sort of reliable used vehicle for $5k just shows that you haven't done this in 15-20 years or so. I'm not even sure you can get one for $10k now and if I was in the market I'd be budgeting $20-25k at an absolute minimum.
I purchased an '07 Prius for $5k just a few years ago. They go for ~$7k now. These cars are low registration cost, very low insurance cost, fuel efficient (45mpg), very low maintenance, and high longevity (I've personally witnessed them hit 550k miles).
That is the baseline in which, yes, an $800/mth payment is mostly financially excessive; a luxury. Especially at 6 - 15% car loan interest these days.
So that ford focus is £300/month for 4 years of use, plus an initial fee of £2k. So after 4 years you've spent £16k and then have no car. Why not spend that 16k on a used car?
My last car I bought used was £7k and 3 years old and I've had it for 11 years now - it still has about £1k of value left in it, so it so far has cost me about £500-600 a year with only basic maintenance costs.
I figure the most leases are taken out by businesses.
If some American company doesn't get auto prices down, cars will come from BYD or Kia.
Besides, I'm not sure there even was much of a push for EVs among traditional automakers. Most have been very hesitant to offer EVs and those that do have only done so lately after seeing Tesla eat away at their market share.
Imagine that people were more responsible in their spending habits. The demand for new cars would drop like a rock, and we would have to transform the way urban planning and transportation is done in this country.
No surprise that the car companies have all sought their luck in China, as the domestic markets have all but dried up.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/08/07/for-most-...
Also:
After adjusting for inflation, wages are only 10 percent higher in 2017 than they were in 1973, with annual real wage growth just below 0.2 percent. The U.S. economy has experienced long-term real wage stagnation and a persistent lack of economic progress for many workers.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/thirteen-facts-about-wage...Any talk about real wages decreasing without addressing the impact of the Fed on the economy is missing the mark.
Noticing that you're being paid less doesn't mean you're paid more, or even the same
Wages before the Fed were weights of gold or silver that were called dollars. If I agreed to work for an ounce of silver a day I'm not going back if the company decided they were just going to pay me 3/4 an ounce instead.
With inflation, my current earnings are reduced and any dollar savings I have are reduced.
Savings help you for a while but if you’re like most workers, eventually you’ll need a job again.
But I think you’re also right in that inflation helps employers lower wages without being upfront about it.
All these productivity gains were siphoned off by the ultra-rich elites instead of going to the workers.
[1] https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/rekindling-us-prod...
Having no car, or maximum 1 car per family is probably a best option.
Both were purchased with 72 month loans at negligible interest rates.
So for years now, my marginal cost of driving has been basic maintenance, insurance, and gas. The only fixed cost are government taxes.
I’ve thought about buying a new car over the years. But every time I look, it just doesn’t make sense to do it. They have less space inside, touchscreens, privacy invading sensors, high price tags, higher interest rates, higher taxes, and higher insurance rates.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/183713/value-of-us-passe...
[1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/real-estate-old-homes-now-cost-...
Two questions spring to mind. What on earth are Americans buying that the median car price is so high? What percentage of Americans can afford a new car if Jalopnik picked an affordable new car?
[1]https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/March-...
[2]https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2023-04-11-After-Nearly-Two-Years,...
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/how-much-rent-can-i-afford-o...
and
https://www.realestatewitch.com/house-price-to-income-ratio-...
13.2 M new cars sold last year in the US; 66 M people can afford new cars in the US if 80% is accurate. The market still holds then as corporate buyers are also in there.
I understand the argument is about affordability of goods but I don't see the numbers coming down.
Yes, they're making unwise decisions. No, you do not get to make that decision for them, no matter how right you think you are.
In fact, that's so uncoupled of a false dichotomy, it's more like a non sequitur. I wonder how you got there.
Sorry to tell you this but governments regulate huge parts of your life for the sake of the common good.
I agree they probably should’ve spent the $200 on an immobilizer. In fact even that amount to add it seems a little high but it’s the number that’s been tossed around a lot.
There are still Civics and Corollas.
Bells and Whistles and EVs have driven up the average price for a new car ridiculously.
That implies a $50K annual income, by the article's method.
I'd love to be able to buy the equivalent of a new 1980's Corolla, or a MKII VW Golf. Can't because it's impossible to sell such a car new today.
Min wage will net you about 15k per year, if you don't spend a cent on anything