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Akababa

311 karma · joined July 15, 2019

Hello HN!
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Akababa··on Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]
Right, so the issue with the income premium without economic growth argument is that the government would have collected those incomes anyway, just from different people (unless the student loans are structured as a % of future earnings, in which case I apologize for my ignorance).

Of course, degrees aren't zero value, but the subsidies for education (student loans) could still be distorting supply in a way that results in a net loss for the government. For example, a self-taught engineer or entrepreneur spends years in school instead of inventing or starting businesses. This is a poor allocation of investment and human capital which results in a net economic loss (including a loss for the government).

Akababa··on Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]
I feel like you're talking past a lot of the other commenters in this thread. I'll try to frame it another way:

Generating value is synonymous with growing the economy and being more productive. You can't inflate incomes without either increasing productivity or printing money. If degree holders command higher incomes without offering higher productivity, it comes at the expense of non-degree holders earning lower wages than they would have without the degree holders around.

In my opinion, much of the income premium comes from employers using degrees as a filter (similar to a standardized test). Doing well on the SAT doesn't make you more productive, but does give you a leg up over your peers.

Akababa··on How to Make Python Wait
Nice, I learned about a couple new things. I take it these can all be implemented with the lock/semaphore primitives?
Akababa··on Travis Kalanick Is Exiting His Uber Holdings Uber Quickly
That's true, but I don't think that makes it any less rational for them to diversify. 20% of your net worth is still a lot of risk to trade off just for a bit of investor confidence.
Akababa··on Terence Tao Proves Result on the Collatz Conjecture
There are some good ideas in there, but I can see a few problems with this proof:

1. It doesn't show the result for all natural numbers, only some "high probability" fraction of them (similar to what Tao did).

2. The expected value of the ratio being 1 doesn't imply that the actual number goes to 1, since it could be stuck in an endless loop with itself as the minimum.

3. 3n+1 doesn't necessarily have a uniform distribution over the even numbers. Tao gets around this by picking some "stable" subset of numbers that don't move too much under the transformation.

Akababa··on Terence Tao Proves Result on the Collatz Conjecture
Actually it's a fair nitpick because logarithmic density 0 does not imply natural density 0 - so the claim in the article is misleading in more than one way.

For example, the set of numbers with a perfect square number of digits has log density 0 but natural density non-existent (inf 0 and sup 0.9). I believe it holds in the other direction though - natural density 0 implies log density 0.

Akababa··on If this project is dead, just tell us
I wonder if some automatic governance model could be put into place to ensure a project never dies. Of course anything I can think of has the potential for abuse so maybe forking is the best solution after all.
Akababa··on Lab chimps were dumped on Liberia's Monkey Island – their caretaker saved them
I believe it has a lot to do with how visible the suffering is. If it's happening right in front of you and you can see it, hear it, etc. then it triggers a much stronger empathetic response than if it's separated by multiple layers of abstraction, like our food is.

At the end of the day, we'll always find ways to distance ourselves from hypocrisy when it's too inconvenient to confront it, while championing idiosyncratic causes as beacons of morality to outshine the sea of suffering.

Akababa··on A Thread about Internet Archive's “Silent Killer”
Who's matching the donations?
Akababa··on Show HN: Kong – Physical Cryptocurrency
The world is moving towards cashless/mobile payments (albeit with the U.S. strangely behind), so why do you feel physical cryptocurrency is a step in the right direction? Do you expect Kong to face greater challenges for adoption (compared to other cryptocurrencies) since it needs a higher critical mass of users?
Akababa··on A way to make anonymous online donations
Do virtual credit cards like Google Pay do something similar to this?
Akababa··on AI Dungeon 2 costing over $10k/day to run on GCS/Colab
I was able to get it working without downloading files by mounting Google Drive, although once the shared folder is rate-limited you need to make a copy in your own Google drive:

https://colab.research.google.com/github/Akababa/AIDungeon/b...

Akababa··on AI Dungeon 2 costing over $10k/day to run on GCS/Colab
Google Drive is actually perfect for this as it lets you mount the drive (presumably as NAS) so you can read from it directly. I set up a notebook for it but unfortunately the shared folder got rate-limited. It still works if you make a copy of the files in your own Google drive though.

https://colab.research.google.com/github/Akababa/AIDungeon/b...

Akababa··on Show HN: AI Dungeon 2 – AI-generated text adventure built with 1.5B param GPT-2
You can enter empty input to advance the generation.
Akababa··on Show HN: AI Dungeon 2 – AI-generated text adventure built with 1.5B param GPT-2
If it's any help, I restarted the notebook and haven't been getting crashes for a while now.
Akababa··on Show HN: AI Dungeon 2 – AI-generated text adventure built with 1.5B param GPT-2
I'm getting OOM errors on colab after the first 10-ish actions :(

EDIT: Any chance you can support TPU on Colab?

Akababa··on Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming
But we don't know how those 17 were chosen in the first place. There would be survivorship bias if models which match observations get more attention.

With that being said, I doubt that survivorship bias is strong enough to explain their combined result of 10/17 models being significant.

Akababa··on Show HN: I built a podcast app that skips over the ads
I don't believe GP was making a point about ethics, but rather one of economics. In general it's not smart to advertise this to people if you want to keep your podcasts free for as long as possible.
Akababa··on Show HN: I built a podcast app that skips over the ads
You could say the same thing about adblockers in general. It's unfortunately pushed more content creators to put up paywalls and move to subscription-based models.

The smart thing to do with apps like this is to keep it to yourself, but inevitably someone will release one for the masses.

Akababa··on What’s Wrong with Bayes
I don't know, this seems to be a really low-effort blog post. The given example is obviously contrived from the unreasonable improper (-\infty,\infty) prior and the low \sigma^2=1 likelihood. If it was really "pure noise" then you'd have \sigma^2=\infty which rightly gives you a flat posterior.

For sure Bayesian gives you more flexibility with your assumptions, so it's easier to shoot yourself in the foot. But when used correctly it can be more powerful, and often easier to interpret.

Akababa··on What’s Wrong with Bayes
What do you mean by coordinate transformation? MLE is invariant under parameter transformations because it's just the argmax of the likelihood.
Akababa··on FBI warns that connected televisions can provide hackers a window into homes
If you're really paranoid, maybe you could remove the wifi card.
Akababa··on Student solves a 100-year-old physics enigma
How wide is the hose? According to the article, the bubble phenomenon happens in tubes several mm wide.

What happens when you remove the dip?

Akababa··on My Show HN Project got acquired after 6 months
While we're guessing, I'll throw my hat in the ring at 250k. Given that it failed to monetize, I'd be surprised if it's significantly higher.

I know of a project that did have decent monetization and was impressive technically that only went for mid 6 figures. However the owner wanted to sell quickly so that might have depressed the price a little bit.

Akababa··on 0.30000000000000004
If you only use decimals in your application, it actually is a fix because you can store the numbers you care about in exact precision. Of course it's not really a fix if you're being pedantic but for a lot of simple UI stuff it's good enough.
Akababa··on Show HN: How to analyse 100 GB of data on your laptop with Python
Does numba help? In the article they use it to calculate distance taking into account the curvature of the earth (lol).
Akababa··on PIA VPN to be acquired by malware company founded by former Israeli spy
My guess is to partially cash out. According to the doc, the two founders each got about 26m cash and 21m equity in Kape, while PIA only had 14m EBITDA per year and 31m debt. So it's certainly a nice cash windfall for the founders.
Akababa··on Robinhood Infinite Money Glitch
RobinHood's response: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/e4r0sy/robi...
Akababa··on I was a drug rep and know how pharma companies pushed opioids
Do you think your doctor wouldn't have prescribed them if not for aggressive pharma marketing? Was it difficult to obtain a prescription?
Akababa··on Go memory ballast: How I learnt to stop worrying and love the heap
This is a pretty hilarious hack. I'm surprised there's no way to do this within Go runtime.
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