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zhdc1

1,776 karma · joined March 2, 2018

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zhdc1··on Firsty.app – free 300kbit/s eSIM for US/EU
Wonder how this differs from something like Airalo or bnesim then, aside from the free tier.
zhdc1··on Firsty.app – free 300kbit/s eSIM for US/EU
Can you explain how your paid tier works?

Is it 1.95€ a day unlimited worldwide, or are there charges on top of that?

zhdc1··on Science fiction authors were excluded from awards for fear of offending China
There was a good discussion on Reddit about it. I don’t have the link but it should be easy to find.

Annual meetings are apparently organized by local groups who lobby/compete with one another. China has a very large SciFi readership and the group from Chengdu was very active when it came to lobbying and gathering votes. It wasn’t until later that people started to realize this may not have been the best decision, e.g. with visa applications and so on.

As far as the actual scandal, there’s also discussion about whether there was any actual government intervention or if this was mainly the result of self-sensorship.

zhdc1··on Why diets backfire: A year after weight loss, the desire to eat grows (2018)
> It is also, IMO, a lot of protein to consume a day. I personally have never done that level of protein intake, ever, but I know a few who have, its an insane (to me) amount of protein powder, chicken, and broccoli (or alternatives) you have to consume, every day. If the goal was sustainability, it's definitely not possible for average people.

Yeah, I don't get it either.

If you exercise regularly and you're going on a cut, 1.6kg is a good target to maintain muscle mass. That said, in order for you to reach this point, you already have to be very good at regulating your food intake.

Otherwise, .9g per kg is a much more realistic target for the 90%+ of people who are simply trying to be fit.

zhdc1··on Why diets backfire: A year after weight loss, the desire to eat grows (2018)
> I usually don’t care how much I weigh, as long as I look fit. Building muscle increases your weight, but makes you look better and be healthier. Also muscle burns more calories to maintain, so you can eat more.

I completely agree, but the ratio of overweight/obese to "I have a slightly high BMI because I lift 4x a week" has to be somewhere in the range of 100-1.

zhdc1··on BMW I3 Owner Confronted with $71,000 Bill to Replace EV Battery
It was the opposite, to be honest.

Chrysler knew they were toast. They either had to be bought out, mortgage everything for massive capital investment (which is what Ford did), or eventually go under.

Meanwhile, Daimler executives wanted a way to get American compensation. A ‘merger’ that would turn them into an ‘American’ company was their preferred option.

Of course, the Chrysler executive team was eventually shown the exit, the company was run from Germany, and it turned out that Daimler’s leadership was making a number of other major mistakes (this is around the time when reliability went down hill, and it had nothing to do with Chrysler).

zhdc1··on BMW I3 Owner Confronted with $71,000 Bill to Replace EV Battery
Doesn’t track with me.

Live in Central Europe. Most of the people we know either own their cars outright or take public transportation.

Many companies north of the border (Germany) offer company cars as an incentive, which iirc are leased, but these eventually hit the resale market as one year or CPO vehicles.

Most cars also have a fairly long anti-corrosion warranty.

That said, reliability issues were more a matter of 1. US style cost cutting (remember Daimler Chrysler?) 2. getting caught by surprise by the horse power wars of the naughts and early teens. Engines and associated parts were rushed to market without proper testing.

These issues have largely been reversed. Modern BMWs are almost/as reliable as Japanese manufacturers while MB is starting to close the gap.

zhdc1··on Vanguard economic and market outlook 2024: Global summary
Vanguard consistently gives extremely conservative, bordering on pessimistic, estimates.
zhdc1··on Western firms are quaking as China's electric-car industry speeds up
I agree, but the issue is that, globally, ICE is still the best option for the majority of use cases.

EVs have a place. I'm a fan of them. However, until recharging an EV becomes as quick and convenient as filling up a fuel tank at a station, ICE will continue to be the preferred option.

That said, government incentives (China, northern EU states) and potential ICE bans (EU) may allow EVs to win out in some markets.

However, at least in the west, this depends on the EU going against the best interests of central European automakers and everyone else in the automotive supply chain. It's - very - hard to see this happening over the next decade or two.

Long term EV will likely win. We're still a ways away from this happening.

zhdc1··on Western firms are quaking as China's electric-car industry speeds up
> Plug in at night and unplug in the morning.

That's the issue.

This simply isn't possible if you live in an older apartment complex or rely on street parking.

ICE wins - at the moment - simply because it takes less than five minutes to refuel.

zhdc1··on Western firms are quaking as China's electric-car industry speeds up
Range anxiety and charging infrastructure are also major hurdles.

Around 50% of people in the EU live in apartments. Most apartments were built decades ago and lack EV chargers - and, in many cases, enough dedicated parking spots for each unit, but that's a different story.

If people in the states think that charging a Model 3 or Model Y is too time consuming, when close to 90% of Americans live in single family houses, why would the majority of European car buyers be willing to switch to EVs, when they don't even have the option to install an EV charger?

zhdc1··on I worked in Amazon HR and was disgusted at what I was seeing with PIP plans
> There are industries & companies that have grown fat & lazy and could use a few annual 6% culls, but you eventually run out of fat.

Agreed, but there's also an unaddressed issue of whether many (most?) positions at large tech companies provide an actual economic benefit to the company or whether they exist simply because of organizational inefficiencies (Parkinson's Law).

To put it another way, a hire may have been the best candidate out a very selective interview process, but if his position exists simply because of internal silo building, forced ranking - as bad of a system as it is - may work.

Is there any economically valid reason for Meta to have ~75K employees?

zhdc1··on Charlie Munger has died
Vanguard lucked into hiring one of the greatest fund managers of all time in John Neff.

There were very, very few people who could do what he did.

zhdc1··on Auto industry executives admit electric vehicle plans are in jeopardy
> Climate change is a species-ending threat. Emissions caused by fossil fuels is a huge piece of that.

It's not a species-ending threat (at least, to humans). That said, the realistic outlook for global warming is bad enough.

EV is a technology in transition. It will get there. It's getting there. It's not "there" yet for every use case.

Why? A large part isn't because of the technology, it's about population density. The countries that pollute the most also happen to have sub-par public transportation networks. Range anxiety isn't an issue when the default option for most people is light rail.

The solution is likely going to come down to: 1. Urban planning. Car friendly zoning, building codes, minimum parking requirements, and other regulations are starting be reversed in the US. It's already happened across most of the EU.

2. Switch to low emissions electricity generation. Power plants are still the leading emitter, full stop.

3. EV adoption. My point above wasn't an argument against EVs as a technology, but a statement of fact that - as a technology in transition - it's not superior for all major use cases. This should change over the next couple of decades.

zhdc1··on Auto industry executives admit electric vehicle plans are in jeopardy
> The grid - will be updated. I know that, but it is, propaganda. We do not know how much of it will be upgraded and when. You write about Oslo. I write about Poland, where electric infrastructure is from 70s and 80s.

EVs aren't going to kill it. Mass A/C adoption in response to global warming is a different issue entirely.

zhdc1··on Auto industry executives admit electric vehicle plans are in jeopardy
> For most people, I suspect a plugin hybrid will be the right solution/tradeoff until the technology evolves, or charging infrastructure becomes more prevalent.

Mild hybrid is winning out.

> If we care about reducing carbon, we'll probably get more milage out of more walkable cities, expanded public transit, and e-bikes/scooters for local trips.

Completely agree. The best way to solve this issue is to fund or otherwise incentivize alternatives that get cars off of the road entirely.

The answer isn't an EV car, although these will help. It's reliable EV light rail/passenger trains.

zhdc1··on Auto industry executives admit electric vehicle plans are in jeopardy
> I don't know why people are saying this though - they are catching on massively.

Marketshare growth is excellent.

Car manufacturers and government regulators bet the farm on mass EV adoption.

Current EVs and EV infrastructure haven't solved the range anxiety/charging issue yet. Suburban US, where most people own a garage, is an outlier.

Waiting 10-15 years for prolific street-level infrastructure to be built out doesn't solve the fact that there are unsold EVs on dealer lots today.

Of course, there are plenty of use cases where range anxiety simply isn't relevant. Ditto why marketshare is still growing and will likely continue to grow.

zhdc1··on Auto industry executives admit electric vehicle plans are in jeopardy
So yes and no.

> ...and you never have to worry about stopping at a gas station - the car is ready to go every morning and you don't even have to think about it!

If you have a home charging station. This immediately excludes a - very - large number of people in the EU and metropolitan US who live in multifamily housing or older towns and cities.

> an electric drivetrain is a way better driving experience than the miserable turbocharged 4-cylinder engines that everyone has been forced to use for fuel economy reasons today, even premium brands like Mercedes and BMW. These are nasty, underpowered, vibrating pieces of shit with no torque and no power unless you run them at thousands of RPM, where they're loud and buzzy. Just complete fucking garbage.

What are we comparing? A Tesla Model 3 against most non-premium cars? Of course. An MG5 EV/Roewe EI5 against a BMW B48 or a Honda K20C1? Questionable.

Let's not forget that there are plenty of fuel efficient 6 cylinder mild hybrid platforms that, quite frankly, compete very well with premium EVs. Range anxiety aside, are they necessarily better? Again, questionable, but the overall package that comes with an M340d or an A6 55TFSI is better than the equivalent Model 3/S (or even, imo, any of BMW or Audi's EVs).

zhdc1··on 'Not of faculty quality': How Penn mistreated Katalin Karikó
> Don't forget that this is actually money laundering. Our NIH grants had major strings attached, like "you may not buy non-instrumentation computers" (at least, that's what I was told, I did not actually get to read the grants).

The EU does it better. At least with the old Horizon 2020 scheme, up to 20% of the grant amount could be set aside for overhead costs. Anything more would get flagged if the grant was ever audited.

This limited how much participating universities could repurpose. I don’t know how Horizon EU is set up, but my guess is that it follows the same approach.

zhdc1··on Automakers Have Big Hopes for EVs; Buyers Aren't Cooperating
PHEV = plug-in hybrids.
zhdc1··on Automakers Have Big Hopes for EVs; Buyers Aren't Cooperating
> I believe this is what the CEO of Toyota was promoting - emphasizing hybrids as most realistic route for most consumers. He was slammed for it.

Hybrids haven’t had much success. The market, at least in Europe, is flooded with slightly used PHEVs.

zhdc1··on Mathematics of Hurricane Modeling and Forecasting (2008, ppt) [pdf]
The previous poster is likely referring to something like a GeoTIFF, which more or less accepts an arbitrary number of bands (matrices).
zhdc1··on Mathematics of Hurricane Modeling and Forecasting (2008, ppt) [pdf]
> With a lot of weather data you end up with these large gridded files like grib, netcdf, hdf, etc. Does anyone know if theres a way to get this kind of data into a database or something where you can query it quickly? I've been wondering how people handle this kind of data for awhile.

GDAL has drivers for HDF4, HDF5, and netCDF.

I do a good amount of work with multispectral imagery data. My workflow for anything that doesn't immediately come as a geotiff or a jp2 is to either use gdal_translate via the command line to convert the datasets I'm interested in into a multi-band geotiff, or to open the product directly in either Python or Julia with the appropriate library.

That said, how much effort and what I do with the data depends a lot on where it comes from.

zhdc1··on If you travel to China, be aware of an exit ban
> Note that the linked webpage…

It is.

That said, the website is legitimate. They’ve put out a lot of very good content, for years, albeit with a pessimistic slant. The firm founder is also active on Twitter.

zhdc1··on The Era of Ultracheap Stuff Is Under Threat
I doubt it.

Labor costs are the main differentiators for high quality textiles.

If you’re paying a skilled cordwainer 25 or more an hour, it doesn’t make sense to have them work with faux leather.

zhdc1··on The Era of Ultracheap Stuff Is Under Threat
Good.
zhdc1··on China's Zombie Economy
> TBH PRC "growth rate" is roughly in line with expectations

Iirc the expectation in the early teens was a slowdown to 3-5% growth around the middle of the last decade. The argument then was that PRC officials knew they needed to transition to a more balanced growth model.

Instead, they continued over investing in manufacturing and infrastructure. The end result is a sizable amount of debt across the entire economy that is, likely, unsustainable if and when a market downturn occurs.

> TLDR PRC is at 25% skilled workforce

I think there's a bias on here to think that skilled = STEM. There's an argument to be made that what China really needs is skilled service workers.

People also need to realize that, when it comes to demographics and population mobility, China is far more akin to the EU than the US.

If we go by your argument, Europe also has a very large reserve of unskilled or semi-skilled workers. However, moving from Sophia to Frankfurt != moving from Boise to San Fransisco. I'll even argue that it's much easier to move from Bulgaria to Germany than it is to move from Sannxi to Beijing.

zhdc1··on China's Zombie Economy
> I'm still not sold on the "China is dying" theory.

I don't know if it's as much a story of decline as it is one of unmet expectations.

China has a declining (and likely overstated) population. They have a very heterogeneous population. They also have an unsustainable growth model and an unwillingness to 'pull the plug', stop manufacturer subsidies, and tackle local governance issues.

In other words, China looks a lot like many other East Asian countries in the past that have pursued an export-led growth model with a de-facto single party government.

The difference between China and Korea, Japan, and Taiwan is that the country is - much - larger. Modernization is almost always city-first. It's possible to gloss over a significant rural-urban divide when you have a high population density and a relatively homogeneous population.

For comparison, Taiwan's population density is three times larger than China, and that's before you account for the fact that much of the island is essentially inhabitable.

All of the infrastructure China has built exists. From what I've been told, the east and south coast cities are the most modern in the world. It's hard to imagine - decline.

However, the country has very well known and very large issues that they're unwilling or unable to address. Lower growth and - maybe - some form of stagnation are more likely, (I'm thinking it will be the former after a correction of some kind).

zhdc1··on Bob Lee, former CTO of Square, has died after being stabbed in San Francisco
Everything is right where it should be : )
zhdc1··on Bob Lee, former CTO of Square, has died after being stabbed in San Francisco
> You won’t see these threads about Zurich, just saying.

Nope. Taking a train from Zürich HB to Bellinzona for the holiday. The train is full. My suitcase is in the next car.

It will be there, untouched, when I get off in an hour or so.

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