Bob Lee, former CTO of Square, has died after being stabbed in San Francisco
sfgate.com
sfgate.com
I want to draw attention to Bob Lee, a well-respected technologist and prototype hacker, always curious and sharing lots of interesting technical developments. He was a great role model for how Engineers should be respected in an executive capacity as he advanced his career from 'Software' to 'Product'. His efforts contributed to technology used by millions. What happened to him is tragic and wrong; he deserved better. Thank you, I'll miss you 'crazybob'.
Please share your stories featuring Bob Lee, who I'm sure would like to be remembered for his contributions rather than as a victim of this unfortunate awful event.
1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35454844
2. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35454971
https://sfstandard.com/criminal-justice/video-appears-to-sho...
"Surveillance footage reviewed by The Standard shows Lee, who had already been stabbed, walking up Main Street away from the Bay Bridge.....Lee crosses the intersection at Harrison Street and walks up to a parked white Camry with its hazard lights flashing.
Lee then lifts his shirt—as if to show the driver his wound and ask for help—and falls to the ground after the car drives away, the footage shows. He gets up and walks back toward the Bay Bridge before falling to the ground again ....
At some point, Lee dialed 911 and repeatedly screamed for help, saying he needed to go to the hospital....
Lee was unconscious when officers found him on the ground, police said."
So looks like he was stabbed and he was wandering around in the middle of San Fran trying to get someone to help him even lifting up his shirt to show people his wound and no one would help him..
The reason our large cities are hellscapes is because in part all institutions censor dissenting comments.. cough cough cough cough...
To facilitate this, I've taken the liberty of converting your text here into a new submission (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35457341) and am going to move the relevant comments there. I hope that's ok with you (and if not, let me know and I'll rework this).
"With a crime rate of 54 per one thousand residents, San Francisco has one of the highest crime rates in America compared to all communities of all sizes - from the smallest towns to the very largest cities. One's chance of becoming a victim of either violent or property crime here is one in 18."
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/san-francisco/crime#des...
And here is New York for comparison "The crime rate in New York is considerably higher than the national average across all communities in America from the largest to the smallest, although at 25 crimes per one thousand residents, it is not among the communities with the very highest crime rate. The chance of becoming a victim of either violent or property crime in New York is 1 in 40. Based on FBI crime data, New York is not one of the safest communities in America." https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ny/new-york/crime#descript...
Edit: I know this neighborhoodscout's methodology is not perfect. I wanted to use this as a starting to add more data to the discussion. Would love to see more stats on this
If I say that everyone should have a means of self-defense in their own house, I get down voted. If I say I don't leave the house without a handgun, I'd probably get flagged.
Liberals made their bed, now its time to lie in it.
Crime being rampant in US in stark contrast with ANYWHERE in EU is a good hint that it is actually not because of "dem liberals", but rather a direct consequence of troubled people being left without any support in poverty. They find a way.
Social policies aren't only there to help people in need, they're there to make society as a whole safer.
And officially, I guess I don’t mind it. I left SF, and if the current residents are happy with the current results, they’re free to continue.
That really doesn't mesh together with the extremely restrictive building code that makes housing crisis so much worse.
I think the criminals are mostly either desperate addicts who have no chance at turning it around unless they had serious help with their illnesses, or, just callous criminals who could change but prefer doing crime to working. And it doesn’t even take that many — especially of that second group — to make everybody miserable.
Edit: just want to clarify: I am absolutely in favor of a “build, build, build, build, build” housing policy. Despite everything I said, it would still make lots of things better including improving density, making transit make sense.
I am working on my self-control.
Much of SFs homeless population and crime is concentrated around the Tenderloin and SOMA areas with downtown also being relevant. You can use something like the Citizen app to get a rough geographic understanding.
This is an important topic but so many clueless individuals (not OP, in general) decide to comment anyways.
If you're in the Tenderloin, Civic Center area, parts of the Mission or SoMA, then sure, you know you're in a dodgy area. But I'm pretty sure that if you're in Forest Hills, West Portal, Lake Merced, or the Presidio, you'll feel pretty safe, and crime maps seem to bear that out. I'll take my preschoolers alone to visit friends in the city on public transportation - I drive to Forest Hills, park in the neighborhood, muni to the Castro. Never had a problem.
I think that what gets tourists to SF is that areas you'd expect would be safe are actually bad. Normally you'd expect that major shopping districts like Union Square, or the city government like Civic Center, would be safe. In SF they're right next to the Tenderloin, which is a cesspit of filth and addicts. And gentrified vs. dodgy areas in SF are very close together, like walking two blocks toward Valencia and Guerrero in the Mission is dramatically different from walking two blocks in the opposite direction to Van Ness and Folsom, or being on the north side of Potrero is dramatically different from wandering the south side.
I have no delusions though, I would not consider any part of the city as truly safe, the metric being I'd be ok with my wife walking around alone.
Kara Swisher is a self-involved imbecile, please don't compare me to her.
Murder Rape Robbery Assault UNREPORTED UNREPORTED UNREPORTED UNREPORTED
If none of these stats are being made public, how are they able to compute 1 in 18 odds ?
I can't reply to your comment below, but that wasn't the point I was making. The stats are probably bad for both, and I don't think I trust anything that neighborhood scout is putting out for anywhere, was my point.
But to your suggestion, it _is_ measured by folks. It's called the Commuter Adjusted Day Time Population.
https://www.6sqft.com/see-nycs-population-pulse-over-24-hour...
https://wagner.nyu.edu/files/rudincenter/dynamic_pop_manhatt...
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-pa...
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-pa...
It also belies the reality that attempting to protect valuables is likelier than alternative action to turn a property crime into a violent crime.
On the other hand stabbings and murder are taken very seriously by law enforcement.
You're expecting the police to show up in a 60 second window? Do you realize how little time it takes to smash a window and leave?
Say I came to your car in the middle of the night and left a strange note on it and then walked away. Do you think there is any way that you could find me with no clues about who I am?
I was pointing out that car break-ins are treated very differently from violent crime.
If there is an inference to be drawn, I’d say it is that we should not act as if the two kinds of crime are equivalent.
You think that a few honey pots and cameras will slow them down? Imaginative but unrealistic thinking. Someone stole some wood from my yard, and I have them on camera. What am I supposed to do with their image? How do you suggest I find them? Is it worth my billing rate to walk around the neighborhood with their image asking people where they might be for $30 worth of wood? Say we have a database of petty criminals, if I find them do you think they have the assets to pay for the glass and items from an auto break-in?
The economic incentives are not aligned for a moonshot on stopping petty property crime.
The US criminal justice system is not set up to handle these sorts of offenders, most of whom probably just require detox and social services.
I assumed the same but based on reporting I've seen on SF local news, at least some of them are doing it out of cars. Pull up next to a likely target, dude jumps out of the passenger seat and takes a quick look, smash & grab if there's anything good, drive off.
I've lived in multiple cities and can say that this is wrong.
I find that generally most people imagine these thefts are being done by homeless people on the streets but it's usually actually organized gangs driving in from Oakland.
Same thing when I lived in DC, organized criminals driving in from SE DC to rob the rich neighborhoods.
which state, with lots of asterisks about why this comparison is difficult and likely not telling the complete story, that:
>For England and Wales, we added together three crime categories: "violence against the person, with injury," "most serious sexual crime," and "robbery." This produced a rate of 775 violent crimes per 100,000 people.
>For the United States, we used the FBI’s four standard categories for violent crime that Bier cited. We came up with a rate of 383 violent crimes per 100,000 people.
I see this a lot on the internet and comments like this are not as relevant as you might think.
Saying place X is better off than place Y is often an incongruent comparison followed by similar fallacies. Y'all, each place is unique and faces a long and considerable history as to how they got there and the type of people that have and currently do live there. I can't even begin to recall the number of times I heard this type of comparison during the Obama administration. America is not similar to Sweden, Finland, Germany, Japan or Canada.
For example: here in the Pacific Northwest, we’re neck and neck with chart-topping Japan for life expectancy - while most of the Deep South has a life expectancy roughly in-line with the average Iraqi.
Yes, America is an Odd Place.
Except for, you know, they are each an organization of humans with access to technology and other cultures. Maybe there's something to be learned.
This seems completely unconnected to the discussion, but ok.
> Now that Europeans have sufficiently Americanized they’ll soon discover that the problems america faces now are in fact universal to all liberal democracies.
I concede, this may be true.
Regardless of what they themselves or anybody else calls them, what matters is what policies they concretely support.
They serve as arbiters of morality to keep the “normal” liberals in line and make certain the window of discussion never again approaches heretical talk of “nationalization” or “the 1%”.
There’s still old school leftists around that strongly support the policies you described, but they’ve been essentially banished from the political sphere at even the metro level. Even the DSA has been nearly entirely co-opted by this quasi-religious garbage.
Your words indicate your knowledge of the Ukraine conflict is lacking. But believe what you want. https://www.thepostil.com/conflict-in-ukraine-genesis/
Neither was Stalin.
The cultural diversity in America compared to the countries above far exceeds what most people give credit for. First and second generation immigrants with different cultural ideologies amplify the differences that you would experience in somewhere like that set of countries. These cultural differences create multitudes of challenges that are not experienced anywhere else to this scale. Again, America is different.
So for the vast majority of property crime, the victim ultimately ends up being the insurance premium, and everybody involved kind of knows this, even if they don't say it outright.
The nature of the drugs (fentanyl), the manifestation (homelessness) and the enforcement (or lack there of) are central to the problem faced here.
It is not a US problem. It is not a west problem. It is not a city problem. It is an urban-west-coast-city problem.
The nature of the drugs (fentanyl), the manifestation (homelessness) and the enforcement (or lack there of) are central to the problem faced here.
It is not a US problem. It is not a west problem. It is not a city problem. It is an urban-US-west-coast-city problem.
If your society is full of thieves, what do you do to address it? HINT: the French Monarchy tried solving the problem via tightened enforcement.
Ultimately though, you have to change the culture. Make thieves seem pathetic and mean rather than rebellious and cool.
It’s totally an American craziness.
When I was younger and walked around at night me and my friends would get mugged fairly regularly (~6X over 4 years) and the police would maybe show up 24 hours later at a random time. One time I even had a clip from a gun the dudes dropped as they were running away (it was empty) and the police never came and took it. I probably still have it around somewhere.
I moved to the suburbs recently and it is amazing being able to park and walk around without being afraid of break ins or muggings.
You've been taken in by a lot of false media narratives. Trump said his bit about "American Carnage in our cities" and set about this revival of the tough on crime rhetoric from the 80s and 90s, a time when violent crime was much higher than today.
Your position is not backed by the statistics.
I can 100% assure you it's not crime rates driving this perception. There were pandemic related increases but the trend of the last 30 years runs counter to the narrative.
I regularly stay in SF in SOMA, and the thing that gives the impression it is unsafe is all the violent, mentally ill addicts roaming around accosting people. The last time I was there, I couldn't go a single day of walking two blocks from hotel to office without encountering at least one.
You can deny that reality all you like, but it is a reality.
Most of the car theft crime comes from organized groups driving here from Oakland, not the addicts who largely are shoplifting from Walgreens, etc.
Uber and Lyft drivers in SF often come from similar places. Basically distant cities with less prosperity and fewer job prospects.
Maybe you should work on this "you being afraid" problem rather than question my ability to deal with reality.
Fyi, my brother is a mentally ill homeless person in another part of the state.
You're a very tolerant individual.
to address your immediate example(s), ignoring your obvious hyperbole which shouldn't need to be addressed in this discussion, as it's not related to the types of human interactions the OP clearly described (which you've lumped into your comment in bad-faith, anyway).
i am not sure why you've filled your head with so much fear, or why you've lumped a certain population into a category of subhuman, inferior, and not deserving of compassion, help, respect, kindness, integrity, and understanding -- if you are finding it difficult to make eye contact with people in general, and regularly, let alone sick individuals, this might distinctly be a personal issue, and perhaps one governed more by trauma, fear and sociopathy than basic decency and human kindness.
i mean christ, imagine leveraging children in order to promote a rather uncaring and indifferent treatment about people, who were once also children. obviously there's a discussion here about appropriate behavior and whether or not someone, say a junkie, is behaving appropriately in a given context, but to somehow suddenly subscribe to this notion that once a person behaves inappropriately, they are no longer deserving of basic decency (eye-contact) is appallingly inhuman to me, and privleged.
since you're leveraging children, am i safe in assuming that i imagine you are okay with children being around alchohol, or even participating in the attending of sporting events (american football for example)?
like, am i safe in assuming you have seen children come into contact or be exposed to effects of alcohol or alcholism, where people behave (in)appropriately -- let's be real, the behavior of a lot of drunk fans at sporting events_in_front_of_children_is laughably appropriate at best
or do you stop the buck short once the lifestyle is a couple of standard deviations away from what you find.. "acceptable"?
perhaps if you started viewing people as well, human beings, perhaps... just perhaps, you'll start asking yourself: "how would i as an individual wish to be treated, if i were sick? would i like to be screamed at, ignored, condescended, looked down upon, shamed, ostracized, ridiculed, ..., or would i like to be treated with at least basic dignity?"
i wonder what would happen if we as a society shifted our attitude as a whole a few standard deviations back to a more compassionate middle ground, instead of constantly enabling, perpetuating, and encouraging fear-based/fear-driven relationships and interpersonal interactions.
also as a total aside, i am really curious: just how much personal time have you spent being around addicts/junkies/or anyone living a deviant lifestyle?
Did Bob get killed by perception?
Sort by total for property crime and it's 4th.
But, I've heard that risk from casual contact with hypodermic needles is rare. See: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2529409/
Risk is obviously much higher if you re-use the needles to inject drugs. Casual contact with the needle is low risk.
That's assuming lots of needles. I see needles sometimes. I use the 311 app when I see needles. But I don't see them in an area where my kids are going to play.
In my experience SF Police are extremely on it. They caught the suspect in my case based on Nest video camera footage.
SFPD in the Mission is useless: they came to a property theft and told the residents to watch youtube videos about how thieves are opening garage doors, issued a perfunctory report for insurance, and left. No -- none, zilch -- attempt to find the perpetrators. Total time on site was less than 5 minutes. They were scared to be out of their cruiser and on the actual sidewalks!!!
SFPD's office is a a mere 3 blocks from the BART/16th street open-air drug market, there is very rarely a police officer on site. Another 3 blocks away, Capp street, just got closed to auto traffic by SF politicians because the police were so incompetent that it was becoming a fire risk (for SFFD vehicles on 19th). They cannot even police their immediate vicinity!
SFPD mostly are known for zooming around in their SUV cruisers in packs of two, blocking traffic, shooting at the unhoused, and ignoring traffic violations. This after arriving in caravans of police SUV cars (at least 3!) with lights blazing, streets on which mission residents walk every day unarmed.
Completely useless. I've seen one cop walking patrol on the central mission sidewalks in 11 years. SFPD mission station is so afraid of the people they are ostensibly there to protect that they barricaded themselves from the street for 3 years after the BML marches. Should be completely disbanded and rebuilt from the ground up to be a violent crime unit only, with traffic, property, unhoused, responses going to another entity entirely. Since the SF homeless outreach campaign went into effect I've felt much safter walking around the mission. More of that, less of SFPD. Is there even a vice squad? SFPD doesn't care about sex trafficking.
SFPD leadership should be publicly accountable and subject to recall. Looking at you William Scott.
Yes, it is obvious that SFPD doesn't give a shit about the sex work on Shotwell st, etc. in the Mission - but that is different from saying they would not follow up on a violent assault or murder.
https://www.ksbw.com/article/sfpd-refused-to-help-stop-san-f...
https://www.davisvanguard.org/2022/03/columnist-sf-police-ta...
etc etc
Not going to keep replying, my point is merely that i think the SFPD will respond to violent crime reports.
There was no suspect or anything, I didn't have good evidence, I did not expect them to solve anything because that would be an unreasonable expectation. They gave me a report number to give to insurance.
I had a half dozen car and home break-ins in San Francisco that I did not report. I now regret this as I should have done my part to at least make the statistics accurate, even if it wouldn't help me recover my goods. I see it as being part of the solution opposed to part of the problem
I also recommend getting renters insurance, which can help with the financial burden
Why make the comment then? What can anyone gain from reading it?
I've certainly read theories that it's a malicious strategy of the police union to make the city council look bad, and the SPOG president has made some pretty shocking political statements, so it honestly wouldn't be that surprising.
I'm guessing it's a mix of both, but I can't really prove anything.
The same was true of both SF and Austin, to be fair.
Show some evidence of this. I just gave you a counter example. Property crime is huge in SF and it never gets anywhere near the "most violent cities in America" lists, it's well below its weight in that regard.
Here's a quick googling for such a list, notice the absence of San Francisco: https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/most-viol...
NYC: "However, compared to other communities of similar population size, New York has a crime rate that is noticeably lower than the average. This means that for comparably sized cities all across America, New York is actually safer than most according to NeighborhoodScout's exclusive analysis of FBI crime data."
SF: "Importantly, when you compare San Francisco to other communities of similar population, then San Francisco crime rate (violent and property crimes combined) is quite a bit higher than average. Regardless of how San Francisco does relative to all communities in America of all sizes, when NeighborhoodScout compared it to communities of similar population size, its crime rate per thousand residents stands out as higher than most."
Edit: having lived in both (currently in NYC) I also want to point out the two cities are incredibly different in almost every way. It's really tough to compare data across the whole "city" between the two because of the differences in geography, population density & distribution, types of crime, history & expectations, and overall city governance.
The remarkable thing about SF and Seattle, is that crime is highest in high desirability/high-foot-fall areas. Many folks I know all go to downtown SF/Oakland/Seattle for work, drinks, dinner, concerts and public events.
At the same time, it seems impossible to park your car on the street in any of these neighborhoods. I thought it was an exaggeration, but "every" person I know, who has parked their car for a week in one of these neighborhoods, has had their cars broken in. It's shocking.
On the other hand, the high-footfall / popular parts of east coast cities are fairly safe. (Pickpockets are an exception). For better or for worse, a person would never accidentally find themselves in a bad neighborhood in NYC, Boston or DC. (Bad neighborhoods aren't always correlated with race or poverty. Sometimes it's just a self fulfilling prophecy) This means that violent crime on the east-coast has very little spill-over outside the communities ravaged by it. IE. The average stranger is safe.
In that sense, west coast's 'open drug market in the most important parts of the city' policy is a uniquely west coast problem. It really doesn't affect other cities in the US or elsewhere in the same way. The unique incompetence of west coast politics is squarely to blame for the dilapidation of their cities. This is not endemic to cities at large, and cities around the world should actively distance themselves from the sort of accusations that get flung at 'all cities', when it is meant to be targeting west-coast cities in particular.
I mean it’s good that we have stopped throwing addicts in jail, but we’ve just exposed another layer of the problem.
Is it though? The streets are a lot safer with the addicts safely contained elsewhere, not stabbing random people.
What if SF started a Thieves Guild, and only registered, properly trained members were allowed to steal from people? (and only after showing their Thieve's Guild registration card first, of course)
I think the politically correct term is "politicians". Or, for more distinguished members, "Congressmen".
I do miss Terry Pratchett.
Then came this brave new world of “atomized social leftism” - this highly destructive political chimera that somehow successfully subverted leftist class consciousness into a twisted parody of individualist libertarianism, while still maintaining the absolute moral certitude and zealous fervor of a revolutionary.
This is not the same left-wing ideology responsible for building Euro-style social democracy (of which I long admired). This is a homegrown American political monster wearing the skin of a revolutionary leftist but designed to serve the interests of international elites. Compare modern Antifa with the Seattle anti-WTO riots in the 90s for an illustrative example.
I live in a West Coast American city that has decriminalized hard drugs nearly to the point of de facto legalization, while “soft” drugs like marijuana are fully legal and psilocybin is on the way.
The results have been disastrous. Property crime has skyrocketed, gang violence over hard drug profits has shot the murder rate up by xxxx%, human beings wander the downtown in broad daylight moaning with visible skin sloughing off their bodies like we’re in a zombie movie.
And the despairing response to this from most of my “lefty” acquaintances has been “well this is all because we haven’t fully legalized hard drugs” - as if that was a coherent argument for why we shouldn’t just abandon the decriminalization experiment and return to the former status quo that didn’t have these problems.
Even marijuana, an extremely mild drug (as far as such things go) that has been legalized, resulted in the literal cartels rolling into the southern half of my state and taking over production.
I find myself increasingly thinking that “American democracy” is a failed system and we just haven’t realized it yet. Wile E Coyote confidently running in mid-air over the abyss with a cloud of dust under his feet labeled “It’s the Wokes/Racists”.
An interesting thought experiment would be to see if any US state could (or even might one day) meet the criteria for joining the EU (the 'chapters' iirc).
https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-p...
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CEL...
My concern (which I hesitate to fully express, lest my Hispanic ass be labeled a “white supremacist”) is that Euro-style social democracy is incapable of surviving waves of economic migration unseen on the continent for literal millennia.
Either the right wing is correct and the migration itself will be overburdening the social structure to the point where it collapses - or the right wing is wrong about full collapse, but the stress fractures from mass migration are enough to put the Prophets of Privatization in power and make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Note that some places in Europe have already seen large scale immigration since WW2, usually from their former colonies - e.g. UK, France, and Portugal again.
Kids don't care about race or ethnicity. It just takes a generation or two.
I'd rather not have downtown be monopolized by people consumed by addiction, which is what your solution would directly cause. The myopia libertarians have about the mean self control of the population in question seems to know no bounds. Not everyone can just "do some opioids" once in a while and be fine (I suspect the % of the population is that can actually do this is approximately zero).
Whole lot of “I don’t know why this fence is here, but it’s gotta go” behavior ripping apart thousands of years of collective/cultural moral development - and the proffered alternative is an abysmal mashup of Alister Crowley and early 2000’s internet libertarianism.
Most remarkable is how “Do As Thou Wilt If It’s Consensual” has become the dominant ethos of even the left. Back in my Occupy days, we used to joke a lot about the goal being Star Trek style “gay luxury space communism” - I guess they figured “one outta four ain’t bad”.
At the end of the day, it really should be just that. Legalize, standardize and actually enforce it ( because as it turns out, legalization did fuck all to that with exception of medical grade stuff ). Then let people do what they have always done anyway. And the freedom still ends precisely where I and my property starts.
I suffer no illusions. People will die. But they are dying anyway. We might as well make them die in a predictable way ( and by their own choice ).
So yeah. Legalize and then enforce it bro. It is not rocket science.
Allowing people to buy and sell doesn't mean they must be allowed to do it openly on the streets or freely cause trouble.
Regardless I’m waiting to hear if his wallet or phone was stolen. If it’s still on him I’m more suspicious this was just some random mugging gone wrong.
SF has 4X the murder rate of Toronto, for example. (And Toronto has about the same murder rate as London, and less than Amsterdam — I can't find the comparative stat for Munich though)
By that list, sorted by the total violent crime rate from highest to lowest, SF is 37th on the list of 100 cities, NYC is 59th, Austin is 73rd. In absolute numbers, SF is 715/100k, NYC is 539/100k, Austin is 415/100k.
Also, by that list, the top cities for violent crime with population over 1M are: Chicago #17, Houston #18, Philly #25, Tuscon #29, Dallas #31, LA #32, Phoenix #33.
Now if only we could get a graph of this data mapped over time, it would be interesting to see trends.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...
And NYC is now famous for prosecuting you for engaging in self defense as well.
https://nypost.com/2022/07/10/nyc-bodega-owners-urge-da-brag...
https://nypost.com/2023/04/01/nyc-garage-worker-charged-with...
In the second story, who knows what in the hell is even going on. It happened too recently for there to be any clarity on what actually happened there. That could easily have been an over-zealous person causing problems (like George Zimmerman) rather than self-defense. Time and the trial will tell.
All of this is alleged, and based only on testimony of the person who did the shooting. We simply don't actually know what happened here yet (if we ever will). You're making assumptions based on the New York Post's reporting, which is a tabloid at best. It's entirely possible that the person who did the shooting was the one who had the gun all along.
Nobody looks into random cars in a lot without intent to steal and he was the only one to introduce a gun into the affair.
They never should have been filed. The victim was cuffed to his hospital bed recovering from two gunshot wounds.
That’s ridiculous and horrific.
If you’ve ever been falsely arrested, you’d realize that the process alone is punishment, and should never be applied without significant care.
How do you know this? Why aren't other cities affected by this under reporting?
So, to more directly answer your second question: other cities absolutely also suffer here, but New York has been at it the longest, and so is perhaps best known for this issue.
For more background, Reply All did a two-parter a few years ago exploring the history here, which is quite good. This is the first part: https://gimletmedia.com/shows/reply-all/o2hx34
I was asking for evidence that was the case for nyc and that it was such an extent as to change the danger of the city compared to others
The primary difference I notice is that in SF, people seem to expect that the police will care about this? I am not sure why the expectations seem so different - perhaps it is the large number of people coming from more suburban parts of the country where the police do investigate these crimes?
And maybe, probably because they should be investigating these crimes.
If you want to see stats for all cities, view the FBI UCR directly [https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-...].
e.g. NJ cities incl. Camden are at https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-...
2019 snapshot has 2018 data: https://web.archive.org/web/20190508183318/https://ucr.fbi.g...
But there's no data after 2019 in any of the snapshots, up to 2023. I wonder what happened in 2020 that makes it impossible to collect any data since then...
As for the violent crime, I expect post-2019 data to be much worse than 2019, 2019 was before the whole "defund the police" movement.
I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying that victims of violent crime are less likely to report it post-BLM/George Floyd? I know some people have been less likely to call certain things in, like someone having a mental health crisis, out of fear that police may escalate, but violent crime?
The same is observed pretty much everywhere where "defund the police" crowd rules the day.
In short, someone will attack a progressive spectre, such as BLM, police abolitionism, rehabilitative justice, or the fact that economic inequality is strongly correlated with crime, they will be asked to show data supporting their position or shown data that directly contradicts it, and the op will then respond in anger with a lot more strawmans of progressive positions.
Given that you don't have the data to support your position, and others do have data to support the position you clearly and vehemently oppose, I'm really curious why you still hold that position? Like, what are you feeling right now?
I did.
> shown data that directly contradicts it
It wasn't.
> will then respond in anger with a lot more strawmans of progressive positions.
That didn't happen. Defunding the police is exactly the position of the prog-woke crowd, and until the disastrous results started showing up, they didn't hide it - they campaigned on it. Once the inevitable happened, they started screaming "we didn't mean that" and pretending it's all strawmen. Yes you did. You meant exactly that, and you got what you wanted, and now people who trusted you are suffering the consequences. Some - the lethal ones.
> Given that you don't have the data to support your position
Except I do.
> others do have data to support the position you clearly and vehemently oppose
Except they don't.
> I'm really curious why you still hold that position?
Because I not only dislike myself being stabbed, but also others being stabbed? And when these policies are followed, people get stabbed. Also shot, mugged, robbed, carjacked, and so on. If you think ideology is worth it - enjoy it. I do not.
> what are you feeling right now?
I am feeling sad that more people have to suffer in service of idiotic ideology that clearly does not work, and I am feeling glad I am no longer one of these people.
Results have been disastrous in the usa because economic inequality has been skyrocketing. This is what the "prog woke" crowd has been warning about, and, as the data shows, very little if any of the "prog woke" policies have been enacted, even in "prog woke" hub San Francisco.
It's getting worse because the predictable reactionary cycle and ratcheting continues. A region virtue signals progressive positions, maybe even does a half measure (like eliminating cash bail, a blatantly classist policy), then ratchets back into reactionary land by cherry picking events, even if overall data shows improvements as expected. Or, like in the case of SF, contrarian forces will mean you can have a situation like "socialist DA elected," then the cops will simply stop doing their jobs, so whether the new da tries progressive policy or not is moot - enforcement will plummet.
Reactionary systems are remarkably powerful in the USA and that's why things will probably keep getting worse there.
Not sure how much of these cuts were achieved by the time they reversed the course, in 18 months, but that certainly was the plan, it was announced as such, and had full support of the police chief. Not that by 2020 SF wasn't drowning in feces anyway, so the defund itself certainly wasn't the cause - just another brick in the wall.
> Dealing the final blow to the local "defund" movement last year was a city council vote to essentially refund a cut they'd made the prior year. Mayor Jacob Frey is proposing another budget bump for the next two fiscal years.
https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/how-city-once-called-...
As far as I'm aware, every single city that defunded its police to any extent - ended up with a major crime surge and then reversed itself. You can see in the article that Minneapolis was no exception to that rule.
Just go home.
But they won’t do it. Hell, if they did all the above I wouldn’t mind paying them double.
Agreed. They won't though. Sigh.
Hearsay.
> E.g. constant car break-ins is useless to report
Not if you want to file an insurance claim, no. Or for example if you oppose car break-ins, then you might want the statistics to be correct.
What the majority of people are concerned about is the chances of violent crime that is likely to affect them. Yes, there might be 80 gang murders a year in Atlanta but a $100k+ income working professional in downtown has a very different threat model than a gang member in some of the worst neighborhoods of the city.
I think the reason SF gets so much negative attention is because the threat to "average people" (realistically, above average income people) is anecdotally quite high in SF, even in "nice" areas of the city where affluent people frequent.
But is it actually quite high?
Anecdotally, I notice many more people going through psychotic episodes here, but generally less organized violent crime. The drug dealing/prostitution is mostly restricted to a few parts of the Mission and the TL.
I don't know, I also care about violent crime that happens to anyone. I care about all life, not just my own.
Both Manhattan and SF are now more dangerous than downtown NOLA imo, but NYC is tame compared to SF. SF is getting next level - almost comparable to Johannesburg ZA
Property crime is what substantially contributes to the image that SF is an unsafe city.
---
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...
Which makes SF far more dangerous to law abiding professionals like ourselves, compared to cities that have the same homicide count, but where the victims are other demographics and not our own.
If San Francisco has national average drug crime as well as above national average rates of "professionals" as well as organized crime, then it seems to follow that if SF homicide count is close to the national average, you are actually less likely to be a victim of a homicide than if all of those homicides were among a small population of "professionals."
You keep trying to counter that with wild speculation that contradicts well-established facts. It simply won't do.
Or maybe show me how the fact that Bob Lee was murdered proves that SF is more dangerous to law-abiding civilians than other cities?
"But the fact that people think SF has too much of B is indicative of how sheltered we are, so to speak, as a people when it comes to the rest of the world."
It's 60th of 83 major cities (Top 3 most dangerous are St Louis, Baltimore, Detroit).
I defined murder rate as "Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter" / "Population" and "major city" as "Population > 250k."
PS: Someone should update Wikipedia; its numbers appear outdated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...
[1] https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-... [2]
The justice system in the United States is broken in many, many places. And the issues that spawn from a broken justice system leak into every other facet of life.
I could talk about privately owned prisons that are incentivized to keep bodies in cells (that's how they get compensated). I could talk about the judges that are bribed to ensure these prisons get filled.
We could move on to things like jail-time for minor drug offenses. Is this a DA problem? Or a policing problem? I'm not sure.
Or, conversely, violent criminals who get their jail time commuted. This is a judge and DA problem.
Or, continuing, the definition of "felon" in the United States is a byzantine thing. See [0].
Our laws are too jumbled and onerous. Justice, the ideal, is not sought nor executed in many cases. I don't know how to fix this. A part of me wants to burn two centuries of case law and go back to a bare Constitution, with an emphasis on personal conduct and responsibility (those darn Puritans were on to something). But that's too simple. We're caught in a trap, and I honestly don't see a way out.
There's a quote that comes to mind "representative rule only works when the people are moral". Something like that. Are we moral?
[0] https://www.amazon.com/Three-Felonies-Day-Target-Innocent/dp...
"crimes involving conscious planning can be more easily deterred than those that relate to addiction or sudden emotions;
increases to prison sentences that are already lengthy have little deterrent effect; and
policies that increase the likelihood of being caught deter crime more effectively than those that increase punishment. "
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https:/...
No it didn't. It had 56 murders [1] and a population of 808,437, so 6.9 murders per 100k [2], vs London's rate of 1.42 murders per 100k.
[1] https://sfist.com/2023/01/03/sf-sees-exact-same-number-of-ho...
[2] https://sfstandard.com/research-data/san-francisco-bay-area-...
Still, the low murder rate, by American standards, in SF is almost 5 times higher than London’s.
I've had my car stolen once and broken into several times. I've had two bikes stolen, once out of an office building, and another time through an iron gate that blocks my doorway. My neighbor had his motorcycle stolen out of his garage. I've caught someone stealing packages from a building I lived in. Last time I moved, someone tried to break into my U-Haul. I've seen people walking out of several stores with bags stuffed full of stolen goods (going to Westfield mall feels surreal—even inside the mall, shops need to hire their own private security to protect themselves).
These are just a few incidents that come to mind—I could list many more. My point in listing all of these cases is to say—it's not enough to look at crime metrics. Not to say that we shouldn't look at metrics and try to improve them, but the current metrics are flawed to some degree. People in SF-proper (e.g. mid-market, SoMA, Mission, Haight) are living with a constant low-to-moderate anxiety that they will be robbed at any time.
In all cases that I've been close to, there have been no arrests or prosecution. You won't find that I had to chase away someone trying to break into my U-Haul in any crime statistic report. No one from SF is comfortable leaving anything in their car, leaving their garage open, parking their bike outside.
All I want is a candidate to run on the platform of simply enforcing the law—it's baffling to me how controversial that is. Perhaps we'll get the right catalyst for that to happen someday.
And this is what gives a chance for extremist to flourish. For some reasons, US politics has no centre, it’s always far away from the axis. I think it’s time to have a “Balance Party” in the US :)
Unlike other solutions, this one takes years or decades, but, on the other hand, it might actually work.
In my view the main problem is not the politicians but the ineffective opaque police that does not have to produce any metrics and is not subject to any kind of oversight, not in SF and not anywhere else either.
For example, I had a car window smashed not in SF but in Fremont, and when I went to the police, they informed me that that is not even an arrestable offense. Window was smashed in front of a hotel with a prominent security camera overlooking the street. The police told me they left a voicemail with the hotel asking if their camera caught anything. The hotel never returned the police voicemail, the police never bothered to follow-up with the hotel, and told me they don't have authority to take the security footage of the public street without hotel's consent. Some time later I noticed that the hotel removed that street-facing security camera they had, leaving just an empty pole.
I wrote a letter to the Fremont city council regarding their police not wanting to work and lying to victims of crime. And that's when I got back some police action -- in the form of a mental Fremont PD police sergeant calling me in the morning to harass me and bitch about my letter.
So even if SF is bad, outside SF it is not much better. Another nugget to consider is that back in 2014, back when crime was nowhere as bad as today, CA voters, not liberal politicians, voted for Proposition 47 "Safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act" which made potential felonies chargeable only as misdemeanors.
All of the west coast suffers from high structural costs. People really only endure SF for the venture money and trips to GG bridge, otherwise it makes little sense as a founder to operate there. My dream tech scenario would combine Sand Hill or London VC with Eastern Europe operating costs and lifestyle. But SF is a hotbed of AI now and so ppl literally risk their lives to work there
If you could fund and run an AI startup on the Croatian coast, I imagine SF might empty out pretty quick
I remember whenever I mentioned the swaths of homeless people, locals would often tell me “they are homeless by choice”.
This attitude again, seemed to be very common and was one of the main reasons why I never wanted to move to the Bay Area.
Mekka it was no more - the disconnect was just too apparent to ignore from an outsider’s perspective.
Fact: the last 4 out of 7 friends I had that got their car broken into didn't bother reporting. They just fixed their car and went about their life.
This is known as the “dark figure of crime” btw: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_figure_of_crime
What makes Austin shine, and SF not ?
Don't national issues affect everyone more or less equally ? And even if they didn't, why is it that the outcomes are so wildly different between SFO and comparable large cities that have huge net inflows of people ?
What are the comparable cities? In terms of weather, size, social aids, etc.
I went to the local walgreens in SF and was trying to buy a tube of toothpaste, apparently the theft is so bad I had to have a person who works there open the case, and while I was waiting in line to buy it a homeless person ran out with merchandise.
There are thousands and thousands of similar stories from others but until residents in SF start voting different I see things getting even worse than they are now. I know that may be hard to believe but we have been experiencing a boom economy, once that changes and things go south expect crime to surge to levels unimaginable.
I know SF already spends 100k/yr per homeless resident, but we really need to push that up."
This whole line of thought is absurd, you're in a bubble.
Yes, they definitely have made your life better.
If there were no ads, people would judge based on the quality of products, instead of being manipulated to buy things.
I obviously block ads. I understand that lots of things would cost money that currently are free, but many things would still be free. The old internet consisted mainly of free things and was not infested with ads.
Please, tell me one positive effect that ads have on society as a whole. (So not for you personally, because I know they make money)
As for bubbles, I would hazard that your accusation is a confession.
To think the 3rd most significant source of value in your life is cheap microcontrollers is.. wild.
Indoor plumbing? Refrigeration? A health department that ensures you aren't eating food fried in gutter oil?
You are taking these entirely for granted, because everyone has those, right? This is a great example of what privilege actually is.
Let's make this simpler for you.
Your original proposal is that, of course, the wealthy (read: anyone that makes more than you) have too much, the homeless have too little. So, like a child faced with this problem, you surmise we should take things from the wealthy and give them to the poor.
SF spends $100,000 per year, per homeless resident, on 'fixing homelessness'. Exactly how much more should they be spending, and why would that change anything?
Had someone like this tell me Venezuelans should be supporting Democratic candidates...like what. A country whose people are so poor a lot of them wonder what they're going to eat next should be focusing on another country's politicians?
Next will be the inevitable fallout of destroying ~45 trillion in wealth. The consequences of which, bluntly, I can't even really fathom at the moment.
I'm assuming you'll be planning to tax more to give the effected some sort of UBI? Please confirm and I'll explain how that will also blow up in your face.
> conceptually the solution is pretty simple
It is if you don't actually think about it. At all.
your arrogance is surpassed only by your foolishness.
See, this is what I mean. This sort of 'solution' is advocated by people that have never bothered to contemplate the second order effects.
Try to imagine what would happen if we implemented this. Anyone that is homeless gets permanent, free housing. You pat yourself on the back.
Except, now I sell my house. And I come to you and tell you that I'm homeless. Are you going to give me permanent, free housing too?
Because if you do, you have now created the economic catastrophe that I described.
And if you don't, because I don't deserve it on the basis of XYZ, you've just recreated section 8.
yes. it probably won't be as nice as something you, a wealthy person, could afford to buy, and it probably won't be exactly where you want to live, but everyone could be guaranteed safe and stable housing without complicated means testing.
> you've just recreated Section 8.
Section 8 disqualifies people for all kinds of "character" issues associated with drug use, mental illness, etc. That's a big reason there are so many homeless on the street. I am against means testing, but even that system could be a lot better than it is now.
Perhaps you can explain why taxation is so anathema to you. Are you one of the nutcases who consider it theft?
No, because despite the mixed-bag that a single payer system would bring, it is not actually destroying healthcare. Unless you intend to force them to provide their services for no pay.
> Perhaps the costs of allowing a deleterious institution to continue existing dwarf the costs of reforming them, on occasion.
Absolutely. Private property is not one of those institutions.
> Family formation is down, bankruptcy is up, and somehow I imagine that you have not figured in the trillions in lost value from these and the like realities that are extant because the 3rd most basic human need is unaffordable in this country.
It is substantially less than destroying the entire real market, unquestionably. That doesn't mean that it's not a problem that should be addressed. But free, permanent housing to everyone is not, in any way, a practical solution.
> Perhaps you can explain why taxation is so anathema to you. Are you one of the nutcases who consider it theft?
I'm not. I've got no problem at all paying my taxes. I have no interest in those taxes being wasted.
Welfare spending is the least of your concerns, then.
>it is not actually destroying healthcare.
I didn't say it would. "Healthcare" is not the same as "the healthcare industry as it currently exists".
>Absolutely. Private property is not one of those institutions.
Ironically: despite the mixed bag that crashing the value of real estate by implementing a housing guarantee (or even simply increasing construction velocity) would bring, it would not actually destroy the concept of "private property", legally or otherwise.
>But free, permanent housing to everyone is not, in any way, a practical solution.
Again, that's not what I said. You seem to have a problem with this. It would be interesting to see you actually argue against something other than a strawman. Are you capable of that?
EDIT: Going out on a limb here, but are you perchance a real estate agent? Because that would be the most hilarious of conflicts of interest.
Yep. In fact, I specifically asked you for your proposal, and you chose to rant about identity politics instead of policy. Which is on brand, I guess.
> Going out on a limb here, but are you perchance a real estate agent? Because that would be the most hilarious of conflicts of interest.
Nope. The current system for performing real estate transactions is wildly inefficient, rent-seeking, insecure, and I'd love to see it destroyed.
As for the gadgets which you alluded to as contemporary society's savior just a few replies ago, I tend to attribute their existence to the basic research and, yes, cheap microcontrollers that made them possible, rather than the glorified middlemen who repackaged them as high-margin luxuries and sold them with spyware.
> So, like a child faced with this problem, you surmise we should take things from the wealthy and give them to the poor.
Also, like a concerned and informed adult, but yes.
>Exactly how much more should they be spending,
However much it would cost to house them permanently (and reduce housing insecurity in general), bounded by tax revenues, of course.
>and why would that change anything?
Well, generally-speaking, when a homeless person has housing, they cease to be homeless.
>Let's make this simpler for you.
I'd like you to stop projecting your own insecurities on me.
Having loads of money isn't just about generating value. It's about extracting value.
It might lag a bit, but almost exactly. That's the whole idea. Real household incomes in the US from 1950 to 2000 very nearly doubled, and purchasing power increased even more. The 'rich get richer' is irrelevant if everyone else is, too.
> By your metric Bell Labs should be worth more than any other company in existence.
The fact that they aren't means that no, they shouldn't be. It's the capitalism equivalent of "the guy with a great idea for an app". If you aren't actually delivering that value to people that need it, you aren't getting paid for it.
> Having loads of money isn't just about generating value. It's about extracting value.
Generating and extracting value are the same thing, ignoring the connotation.
If you create a device where, with one press of a big red button, you can cure cancer/world hunger/war/disease, but you never actually press that button? You haven't actually created any value. You haven't done anything.
> If you create a device where, with one press of a big red button, you can cure cancer/world hunger/war/disease, but you never actually press that button?
What if you create such a device and decide to publicly share the design, with no plans to monopolize it? You'd probably be the lose financially, but did you not create the most value?
Have Linux or Git created no real value except for the companies that can build service models around them?
Even if you solve housing (NIMBYism, slow permitting process, low-density zoning) crime won't solve itself. (Because organized crime fits in its niche, and doesn't want to give it up. And it'd require changes of federal law to move it.)
This is an interesting wrinkle. I would hope that addressing the corruption that enables NIMBYism would also affect the viability of organized crime.
I disagree that law enforcement is underfunded. Public services which would reduce the prevalence of crime are absolutely underfunded; law enforcement is not one of those services, as it currently receives enough funding (and more) to carry out its part in crime-lowering efforts. Fixing its mismanagement means funding separate institutions dedicated to oversight, for example.
At this point, I'm fairly certain that it's a pipe dream to assume that it's possible to "fix it" without serious sustained effort (which costs some money obviously) and without also drastically improving the adjacent systems (as you said also). Sure, we can call it social services, but the goal is to really reduce both crime and police brutality.
It's a complex problem, but very simply the funding issue is that militarization was cheap (because military handed off a lot of things for cheap/free), and any and all social service thing got more expensive simply due to big "external" factors like the Baumol effect (human labor is relatively getting more expensive compared to anything that benefits from capital investment, ie. industrialization, mass production, technological progress), the Southern Strategy culminated, War on Drugs revved up, social polarization increased, inequality shoot up, these all led to more crime, more tough-on-crime programs, more people in the criminal justice system, and that's a lot more expensive. And of course reintegration and related social programs got worse for the same reasons.
See also https://www.slowboring.com/p/fixing-the-police-will-take-mor...
The author here confesses his disconnect with the majority of people in San Francisco. This assessment is correct - the author and his views are disconnected from those of the majority of working people in San Francisco.
The magnitude of the wealth disparity in San Francisco is almost hard to comprehend. Many in this thread have advocated militarizing the city, and cleaning it out of poor people so that it can be some kind of elite utopia for tech bros and VCs. The people of San Francisco do not share this view. That they do not share this view is not in my opinion (although it is) - but in the opinion of the parent poster. As those from more equitable European cities have said in this thread - Europeans don't have these kinds of problems where they live.
The US already has one and a half million people incarcerated, which does not count all those on probation or parole. It has one of the highest incarceration rates in the world, although I think Rwanda has more, no large or industrialized country has a higher incarceration rate. Not sure increasing the incarceration rate even more is the solution.
Name another country just as free and open with fewer incarcerated. Not Switzerland for sure.
Also the incarcerated population is 1500k not 500k.
You take those 1500k and put them into some other country and have them do the same thing they did that got them incarcerated in US prison, and unless they are friends with somebody important in the government there they'll get incarcerated there too. Furthermore, in lots of countries selling / smuggling drugs is an executable offense. Furthermore, many of these 1500k would not even be admitted to enter many Euro countries with the low incarceration rates that you envy.
Umm... European cities do have high wealth disparity. Checkout an ethnic ghetto the next time you're in Manchester or Paris, for example... there are areas of these cities that get scary AF after dark.
Homelessness is not a crime... but the homeless and drug addicted commit a lot of crimes. And they (particularly the drug addicted) frequently have very little to lose and very severe motivators to rob, mug, etc. As others have said, not policing crime is recipe for disaster, chaos, and tragedy. And it is a human tragedy: for the people who are suffering homelessness, drug addiction; the people within those domains who are victims of violent crime, and for society at large.
A lot of homeless people in CA were not born in CA... and a lot of them didn't hit the street in CA... they migrated to the west coast. Drug addicted homeless people flock to SF and LA because (1) the weather is better than many places in the country, (2) the extremely lax policing, (3) availability of drugs, and (4) the social support system: food, shelter, clothes, money. Indulging depravity is not a solution.
SF needs to double/triple police presence, prosecute crime, and significantly increase drug and mental health services.
I was born in SF, lived there off and on for many years, and have family who still live in the Bay Area... parts of SF are just disgusting now (human feces and trash all over place)... parts of Oakland and Berkeley are no better. Parts of Oakland have so much broken safety glass on the street it's a glass/gravel road.
I used walk around SF late at night as little as 10 years ago; now, there are so many places in SF that I would not walk around in after dark unless I had no other choice. This is coming from a white dude who used to play basketball at playgrounds in South Central LA on saturday nights in the late 90's (because the pick-up basketball was that good).
Until you live somewhere else, you may not understand just how bad and crazy the situation in SF, Oakland, Berkeley, Los Angeles really is. Where I live now, I can leave thousands of dollars of stuff in my car in pain sight and nothing gets stolen... ever. My neighbors' kids leave their bikes on their front lawn overnight and they are still there days later.
I once saw a person break into a Telsa on Piedmont Ave. in Oakland at 2pm on Saturday in front of about 50 people to snatch a backpack. WTF?
Lots of places have poverty, not all of them have the level of crime that SF has
I have no idea what policy changes would help, but it's the only place I've ever been where I saw crime being committed in broad daylight. It's the only place where leaving anything within sight in a parked car results in a break-in. A fucking bag of potato chips once.
There are nice parts; the higher your physical elevation, the less chance of your being affected by crime. Literally people living their ivory towers watching their city burn.
At the end of the day, it's a democracy. The voters get what they deserve. Remote work is here — the tax base is on its way out, or retreating to high ground.
People think mental health causes homelessness, but it looks increasingly like it's the other way around -- cities with bad housing crises and insufficient shelter systems (NYC is notable for having an excellent shelter system compared to its peers) end up with people who hit rock bottom and become destructive out on the street when they'd be trying to get their lives together if they had a place to live.
If people can't grapple with their demons in the privacy of their own homes, they will grapple with them on the subway and we'll all be collateral damage.
Scope of worldview? I don't know. I'm not sure but I don't think it matters, because it's like a market effect: they don't need to understand the dynamic to be subject to the dynamic.
Add to that, housing designed for recently-homeless people is not conducive to improving oneself, and the other resources they need in conjunction with that are often absent, or scarce.
Classic game theory: "fuck you, got mine". When everyone in a society just looks out for themselves instead of for their fellow citizens as well, you get precisely what happens in SF - although there are external factors making the issue worse, such as Republiqan mayors busing out the homeless to Democrat/progressive areas or harassing and demonizing them until they leave on their own.
Another signal that tremendous wealth inequality in a confined region is a microcosm of what's at the root of similar outcomes around the US?
Many in the comments seem to blame local politics/policies when it's clear the major contributing factors are inflation, economic downturns, mass layoffs, etc... these have been a long time coming, were never evenly geographically distributed, and aren't created or solvable at the local political level.
The relatively minor recent attempts at criminal justice reform being used as the scapegoat for these outcomes is a distraction at best.
My brother and I were no longer living there because we were in college. My parents decided to send my sister, then starting highschool, to a city in central Mexico with friends of the family to avoid having her grow up in what was a life and death environment. My parents stayed.
Mexicans speak a lot about cartel wars and the violence it comes with. What is not often mentioned is that what _really_ kills the city and society is the unorganized crime that pops up when laws are not applied.
The cartel wars laid bare that the police was not going to prosecute anything in fear of retaliation. This opened the door to anyone to commit any sort of crime. Carjacking was increasingly common. My uncle fled one such attempt and miraculously escaped to the US unharmed but with his truck showered with bullets. My mother saw a guy getting shot in the streets just because of road rage. Friends had their parents killed or kidnapped.
Every crime that goes unprosecuted is an invitation for a repeat crime. This is as true in Juarez as it is in San Francisco.
The most basic definition and purpose of the state is to hold the monopoly of violence. It must jealously protect this. The alternative is unsustainable anarchy followed by someone else filling that void.
San Francisco has been ceding its monopoly of violence for years if not decades.
Whatever the fix for institutional racism is need not be contradictory to Broken Window. They can work together.
Now obviously there's a real debate to be had about how severely petty theft and vandalism should be punished. I mean, George Floyd was killed over a counterfeit bill.
But once you get into violent crime everybody is on the same page.
But basically, in order to get all the violent crime under control, you need a hefty police force. And a hefty police force means a lot of cops roving around hassling poor people and people of color who are just trying to live their lives, which is what the left-wing activists get angry about.
Figuring out how to get effective policing without intrinsic racism/classism that always seems to come with that is a big challenge.
The broken windows theory isn’t about violent crime, it’s literally about property crime and offenses like vandalism. The idea is that when that kind of petty crime goes unchecked, the crime situation in the area spirals, both in terms of quantity and severity, eventually leading to more violent crime.
You can disagree with the theory all you want, but to assert that the issue is that it should only apply to violent crime is to fundamentally misunderstand the assertion the theory is making.
As a result, the term "broken windows" now carries a ton of baggage, and is sometimes used as a racist dog whistle.
What some, or even a majority, go on to redefine it as does not change its original meaning. If a place looks like a dump people will treat it like a dump. You and wherever you read this from is conflating the issue with racism.
Most engineers aren't working on siege works any more.
How about we listen to what people are actually saying instead of twisting meaning to fit a narrative to further control speech? For those that are offended by speech and are demanding, essentially, the removal of the first amendment, it is a learning opportunity that words don't actually harm, only actions.
(And that’s just one state, every single state has had similar issues with this in their police forces)
The core problem is that this very important part hasn’t been happening.
It’s very simple. People who are never looked after by their community, but only harassed, beaten and killed, will not see themselves as part of that community but as an enemy.
Social values really matter. Countries with low crime rates don't have them because the police are educated about deescalation. That is important too and I support that, but the police are largely irrelevant to the underlying issue. This is coming from someone who grew up thinking social conservative types and people going on about social values needed to relax. I was wrong and realized that when I had children. Children absolutely need stability, reassurance, love and guidance from their mother and father, it's absolutely critical.
violence is inherent to animal life and it does not require delusion. that's like saying an alligator is delusional for attacking a deer.
Police are good for exactly one thing: responding to violence with violence
> The policy targeted people in areas with a significant amount of physical disorder and there appeared to be a causal relationship between the adoption of broken windows policing and the decrease in crime rate. Sridhar, however, discusses other trends (such as New York City's economic boom in the late 1990s) that created a "perfect storm" that contributed to the decrease of crime rate much more significantly than the application of the broken windows policy. Sridhar also compares this decrease of crime rate with other major cities that adopted other various policies and determined that the broken windows policy is not as effective.
> In a 2007 study called "Reefer Madness" in the journal Criminology and Public Policy, Harcourt and Ludwig found further evidence confirming that mean reversion fully explained the changes in crime rates in the different precincts in New York in the 1990s.[38] Further alternative explanations that have been put forward include the waning of the crack epidemic,[39] unrelated growth in the prison population by the Rockefeller drug laws,[39] and that the number of males from 16 to 24 was dropping regardless of the shape of the US population pyramid.
As always, the wikipedia article is a good place to start to look into further sources: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broken_windows_theory
It's time to let "broken window theory," and bloodthirsty, punitive "justice" strategies, die.
Perhaps this is true, and perhaps this is a part of the issue the usa has with "different facts for both sides."
> I'm certain that there are studies out there showing that broken windows policing was in fact the main contributor to the decrease in crime.
I'm going to challenge you on this because I feel like this basically just contributes to the problem. Think about what you wrote, you're "certain," certain that studies exist showing our that broken windows policing works, and thus you believe it works.
You arrived at a conclusion of the world with, genuinely, no evidence. You don't even know if the evidence exists! In fact you arrived at two conclusions: that your conclusion is correct, and that a lot of other people proved this with good studies.
Now I challenge you to simply read the wikipedia article on the subject in its entirety and pay close attention to the "criticism" section. I've done this because I care deeply about the issue, and I've also read the various studies linked. For me, I found the "for broken policing" studies to be dubious and problematic, and the criticisms to be valid. As a result, my understanding of the world is that broken window policing doesn't work, the basic theory is a misunderstanding of actual mechanisms, and that the application of broken windows policing pulls resources from more effective solutions while also delivering inequitable justice to society. So, when you're read up as well, do you still disagree with me?
> You arrived at a conclusion of the world with, genuinely, no evidence. You don't even know if the evidence exists! In fact you arrived at two conclusions: that your conclusion is correct, and that a lot of other people proved this with good studies.
Here's the thing - I do have evidence. But it's the evidence I've seen with my own eyes, not something I've read in some paper or study. My evidence is (I see no other way to put it than to be frank) just common sense.
I've met plenty of people in my life. I've seen humans and I know how humans behave. When there is threat of punishment, legitimate actual punishment, people fall into line. You have to know this to be true - it's literally human nature. People will act out as much as they possibly can before things get serious. Go look at any school, for instance. There's a massive difference between the "harsh" teachers' classrooms and the teachers who are known to be pushovers.
Punishments work. Deterrence works. It's something I personally know, as someone who has faced punishments many times. Another thing I personally know is that you can't take any shit. If people start trying to test your shit, test your boundaries, you have to stamp that behavior out immediately, or it will intensify. Again, it's a human nature thing. There exists bullies and sociopaths out there, and they will keep raising the bar of abuse. So in my view, tolerating petty crimes only leads to people pushing boundaries and more and more violent crime. Just like troublemaker students pushing the teacher further and further in poorly run classrooms.
And also, quite frankly, I like clean spaces. I hate grafitti, and drug addicts bothering everyone, and drunks passed out in the subway cars. I feel that our society should not tolerate such disorderliness, and instead should actively shun and punish such behavior, in order to strongly incentivize people to become productive and contributing members of society. Tolerating that stuff is like handing these people the keys to their own destruction. Sometimes other people do indeed know better and society needs to help these people get control of their lives.
Have I seen studies or other acceptable documentation for my conclusion? Nothing that I can specifically remember, or at least nothing that I have at hand. But I don't feel I NEED documentation. It's just so obvious to me that punishing crime serves to deter crime, and the harsher the punishment, the stronger the deterrent. I personally don't commit any crimes, I'd guess that at least 90% of people don't either, and I feel that harshly punishing things like vandalism or burglary will only make society better for all law-abiding citizens.
> But it's the evidence I've seen with my own eyes, not something I've read in some paper or study
Known as "anecdotal evidence." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anecdotal_evidence
> "Anecdotal evidence is considered the least certain type of scientific information. Researchers may use anecdotal evidence for suggesting new hypotheses, but never as validating evidence."
> My evidence is (I see no other way to put it than to be frank) just common sense.
No, it isn't, because it isn't common to me and other people that are in favor of evidence-based judicial methods, nor in general, left-leaning people. I notice a tendency of conservative ideology to claim "common sense" for their principles, but this seems to have usually just meant "the traditional beliefs I hold, backed by anecdotal evidence, confirmation and selection bias, and arrived at by refusing to think past the very first principle conclusion of a subject." A good example is "build the wall." Immigrants are coming in and that's Bad, for whatever reason. Simple, build a wall, that'll keep them out. I've seen fences keep my dogs in the backyard. It all works! This example is unrelated to the current topic, more representation of the style of thinking I believe necessary to maintain positions that fly directly in the face of evidence and deeper analysis.
> I've met plenty of people in my life. I've seen humans and I know how humans behave. When there is threat of punishment, legitimate actual punishment, people fall into line.
This argument could be used to justify, for example, corporeal punishment, which has been demonstrated to not work. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/corporal-pu...
It's another great example of why your self-assured "common sense" position fails. "If I threaten to beat my children, they stop stealing candy." No, they simply get better at stealing candy in a way that you don't notice, because you selected for avoiding traumatic punishment, not correcting behavior. Ample evidence holds this to be true and it is now the generally agreed upon medical consensus in child rearing, in short, it is "common sense" for those in the know.
> You have to know this to be true - it's literally human nature.
I don't know this to be true, it contradicts my experience, driven by a considered and researched approach to interpersonal relationships. Dale Carnegie is considered by many to be the foremost expert in interpersonal relationships and effective communication - where does he recommend "threat of punishment" in interpersonal relationships? Instead, he recommends empathy, treating others like equals, calmness, and clear communication. These are incompatible with harsh punishment.
Try this on for size: who gets better results, the asshole boss wielding the stick, or the boss that puts in the effort to get to know their team, communicate expectations, and shares and celebrates wins? Pick up any startup book recommended by all these ycombinator folks, see what type of boss they recommend you be.
Regarding your teacher example, I was once a teacher, and I come from a family of teachers. I'm not arguing for teachers to be pushovers, but the "harsh teachers" don't really get good results, at best they might get a quiet classroom. Is that what you want to measure and select for?
> Punishments work. Deterrence works.
Hammurabi code logic, and punishment + deterrence aren't as effective judicial strategies as restorative justice and rehabilitation of criminals. Example: Norway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_Norway with the lowest recidivism rates in the world.
> Norway's prison system is renowned as one of the most effective and humane in the world.
Yet somehow this "least punitive" justice system on earth has the best results. This contradicts your "common sense."
> Another thing I personally know is that you can't take any shit. If people start trying to test your shit, test your boundaries, you have to stamp that behavior out immediately, or it will intensify.
Trying to apply your own interpersonal philosophy like this to a society's judicial strategy alone seems flawed. This is vague, which alone means we shouldn't be basing policy off of it. It also doesn't sound to me like a very developed personal philosophy. People have been writing about interpersonal philosophy for a while and I'm surprised this simplistic "smash those that give you shit" style didn't evaporate upon first reading of Meditations by Marcus Aurelius.
> There exists bullies and sociopaths out there, and they will keep raising the bar of abuse.
Ironically, those in my camp find the "retributive justice" arguments you're making to be sociopathic. You see a homeless drug addict and immediately jump to "throw this degenerate in prison," rather than the more empathetic take of wondering what caused the person's life to fall to such a wretched state. You'd rather spend the money keeping them behind bars, punishing them for their "personal failings," than spend (demonstrably less) money trying to help them. As a former conservative, I believe this is because empathy, especially for perceived degenerates, feels icky and feels like weakness, which is an intolerable personal feeling to have. Forgive me for reaching so far if this isn't how you feel, but this is what I perceive that other still-conservative people believe.
> So in my view, tolerating petty crimes only leads to people pushing boundaries and more and more violent crime.
There isn't evidence to support this, and also this ignores that the definition of "crime" can change. Example, there's no good reason for weed to be illegal, and yet alcohol to be legal, considering alcohol is the far more dangerous drug. We saw exactly what is to be expected when alcohol is made illegal: the formation of alcohol cartels (mafia) that took over the streets. When prohibition ended, their power (income) was cut into pieces and the era of the mafia ended. No, going to war with them in the streets didn't solve it, ending prohibition did. And yet by your logic every person smoking weed on a street in Texas is technically a criminal. By tolerating their action we "tolerate more violent crime." The logic doesn't hold.
> I feel that our society should not tolerate such disorderliness, and instead should actively shun and punish such behavior, in order to strongly incentivize people to become productive and contributing members of society.
We tried that, and it doesn't seem to work. It turns out the best solution to homelessness is simply housing the homeless. "Housing First" is what I'm describing, and evidence shows it works better than what you're suggesting: https://endhomelessness.org/resource/housing-first/
It's also gross that what you're arguing for is kicking a beaten dog.
> society needs to help these people get control of their lives.
It's super weird to me that to the extent you're willing to acknowledge society has responsibility to their fellow man (who happen to be homeless), it's only to argue that we must essentially brutalize them to make them feel even worse about being homeless / drug addicts / whatever.
> Have I seen studies or other acceptable documentation for my conclusion? Nothing that I can specifically remember, or at least nothing that I have at hand
That's because there are none. That's because your position is based on feelings, not facts.
> But I don't feel I NEED documentation.
As an engineer, if I said this in a meeting about considering which technology to choose for a given application, I would be fired. I don't know why you think this is an acceptable way to opine about social issues, literally willfully ignorantly.
> It's just so obvious to me that punishing crime serves to deter crime, and the harsher the punishment, the stronger the deterrent
You are partially correct, but then entirely incorrect, regarding harsher punishment being a stronger deterrent:
> "The certainty of being caught is a vastly more "powerful deterrent than the punishment.
> "Increasing the severity of punishment does little to deter crime."
https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/nij/247350.pdf
> I personally don't commit any crimes
I don't believe you. Have you weighed every lobster you ever purchased? Ever picked up a feather without first checking it wasn't a bald eagle feather? Ever divert storm sewer water for fun?
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2015/03/29/crime-law-...
There may be as many 300,000 federal regulations that carry criminal penalties. What's your bet you've never broken a single one? (hint: you basically can't possibly know, and this is why you should never talk to cops btw)
> and I feel that harshly punishing things like vandalism or burglary will only make society better for all law-abiding citizens.
This is reactionary rhetoric that just "others" undesirables and is why people like me push back so hard, btw. There's no such thing as a "law-abiding citizen" as I explained earlier. I don't want to get too much into the weeds of this, how cops are trained to see everyone as a potential enemy etc etc, but this is where this rhetoric from my position comes from.
TLDR Though you're self admittedly willfully ignorant, as in, by your own admission uninterested in reading into effective judicial strategies (or even really effective interpersonal relationship strategies), you hold strong opinion on how society should be run and believe you know enough that the rest of us should adopt your strategies. Why should we do that?
First of all, I feel like your post emanates barely-contained anger. Your choice of words and tone kind of betrays your contempt for me and my opinion. You're "fascinated" by my response, my views are "sociopathic", I'm "ignorant," yada yada. I can't say it makes it an appealing prospect to continue the discussion, because we fundamentally disagree, and I have a feeling that more insults will be flung my way. But against my instincts, I'll continue.
The first few segments of your response have to do with rejection of my principle of "common sense" as a guiding principle in my opinions about some of these issues. You go through point by point, rebutting each example I listed with a detailed refutation and a link to some study. There are quite a few strawmans and a lot of insinuations that I'm a conservative. I'll just start this discussion by telling you I voted for Biden, I don't ascribe some umbrella label to myself, so let's just cut this name calling out right now.
Here's the problem. I tell you, "my entire life experience tells me that X means Y. I know this to be a fundamental truth of the universe. I am CERTAIN of this." You reply: "That's totally incorrect. Here's a study or example where X does not equal Y. Here's my explanation of why X does not equal Y. Therefore you are wrong and willfully ignorant for still believing X equals Y." But what you don't understand is that it is very hard to change someone's mind when they are CERTAIN of something. It's like if you told me 2 + 2 equals 5, and linked to some study proving it, and wrote an essay on why it is the case, it still wouldn't change my mind. Because it directly contradicts my reality. My lived experience. My "common sense" position of, for instance, punishments being effective to deter crime is based on literally every experience I've ever had in my entire life. Are they perfect deterrents? Of course not. But I've changed my own behavior to avoid punishment, I've seen a million other people do the same, and there's no possible universe in which I could just read some study online and go "wow, I guess punishments don't work to deter crime!" That's not me being willfully ignorant, that's me not wasting my time with obvious falsehoods. Forgive my being harsh, but the "don't punish crimes" movement is the same as the flat earther movement in my view - so stupid, so obviously incorrect, that it isn't even worth a second of my time. Studies are not the arbiters of truth.
Now onto the next point I want to make. I think it should be perfectly clear to you that when I talk about punishing crimes, I'm talking about SERIOUS crimes. We're on a thread about the stabbing of Bob Lee, after all. For you to suggest my opinion is dumb because I speed or don't correctly weigh my lobster and therefore technically everyone is a criminal... that's YOU being willfully ignorant, dude. Everybody speeds but practically nobody stabs, vandalizes, robs, rapes, etc. THESE are the crimes that I want harshly punished. It's literally common sense, a theme that seems to keep popping up here. I'm honestly just dumbfounded that you seriously think me saying "I don't commit any crimes" is tantamount to me saying "I have literally never sped or broken any law in my entire life." Like god damn. When I talk about law abiding citizens I'm talking about people who don't commit crimes that make life drastically shittier for everyone else. And the vast majority of people on the planet fall into this category.
I could continue on, and go over the Norway thing and how I believe it's a completely different situation than the US, or go over the housing the homeless thing and talk about how expensive that would be in SF, or any of the other points, but I feel this would be a waste of time. Because I would guess it directly contradicts your lived experience. That's the thing. I don't comment to change people's minds. I don't comment to dunk on my political oppponents. I don't comment to show everyone what an idiot the other side is via angry point-by-point takedowns that are dripping with contempt. I literally just comment on HN because I like the discussion, I like hearing how people think and what their insights are. Hence what I originally commented: I wanted to comment "so we can exchange perspectives and see what someone 'on the other side' of the issue thinks." I really think there's no need for the clear contempt of the tone of your reply. We disagree, dude. It's no reason to get emotional. There are a lot of people out there and you'll likely find yourself disagreeing with many of them.
Same here. People are ignoring the research that highly punitive retributive justice systems don't work, and reformative justice systems do, because of some combination of yellow journalism and cognitive / rhetorical fallacy.
> Studies are not the arbiters of truth.
Certainly not all truths, and I agree with you that we can't expect people to fact check literally every aspect of their lives. However, your flat earth example is fantastic, here's why: the earth being flat is common sense. If you don't fly (many people) and have never seen the ocean (many people), don't think much about orbits or astronomy, why would you think the earth is round? There's a reason flat earthism is so popular, it really does "make good horse sense."
Grant me for a moment that to believe the earth is flat in 2023 requires believing in a massive global conspiracy, maybe instead let's consider a detached farmer in 1920. How about this guy: https://youtu.be/RS27u6IqWt0 . Consider what's necessary to know with certainty that the earth is a globe, and consider how they disagree with "common sense."
A flat earth would allow for seeing all the way to the end of it, right, so since you can't see all the way to new York city from here, the earth must be a globe, right? "No, fog prevents that, and tall trees, and mountains." Ok, the shadow cast on the moon during a lunar eclipse is always round, and the only shape that can do that is a sphere. "Well, that's nice, but I've never seen a lunar eclipse, and I don't really care to sit around moving shapes in front of a candle to see if that's true." Ok, time zones! If the earth was flat it would be the same time in new York and San Francisco, instead it's different. "Is it different? I didn't know, I don't have a telephone."
Without resorting to things completely outside the realm of "common sense," and basically coming up with good explanations for someone's daily experiences, i don't see how you could explain to someone (pre space age) how the earth is a globe. Can you think of a way?
I wish there was a more polite way to say "willful ignorant" but my point is basically, you've had the explanations, with evidence, for why your common sense doesn't align with reality, set before you, and you said "I don't want to read that, I'm good with my view of reality." I'm not trying to sell you essential oils here, this is just something outside your domain and to do it well takes some research and perhaps I guess something that disagrees with the "common sense" of some people. What else can I call that?
And anyway, surely you agree that when it comes to setting up our laws, infrastructure, we want to make sure to be doing so correctly? Before we build a bridge, don't we want some studies done on concrete before choosing the right kind? And isn't it best to have the domain experts doing that? And doesn't it make sense that even though every time you tried to use consumer concrete to build something with a gap, it crumbled, that's ok because we use a different kind for building in industrial applications with techniques involving rebar?
And I still hold the position that the retributive model isn't common sense, I've found great success with never wielding a stick as a leader in various spheres: teacher, social worker, sales leader, engineering lead, scout leader, burning man camp leader. It just seems common sense and agreed with my every day experience that punishment drives shit results. A story from "How to Win Friends": a tech fails to fuel a stunt pilot's plane well, he nearly crashes and perishes. Tech is apoplectic, apologizing profusely, offering to resign, pilot says "why would I fire the tech least likely to make a fuel calculation mistake in the future?" I only use this example to demonstrate that even in the domain you chose, that being business / school / interpersonal relationships, the "retributive " model isn't common sense or effective, though again I don't think it's a great idea to try to draw too many conclusions between handling a fuel calculation error and a premeditated crime or crime of passion.
> "I don't commit any crimes" is tantamount to me saying "I have literally never sped or broken any law in my entire life."
Well, do you see why maybe your common sense is maladjusted? For me I'm genuinely surprised at your surprise. What else is a criminal but someone who breaks the law? That's why I pushed back so hard! Your definition is vague! "Someone that does these crimes I think are really bad." Well the USA doesn't care if you murdered someone or committed certain kinds of white collar fraud, or even something more mundane, all are felonies and you don't get to vote after. You're a criminal in all circumstances. Hence my point that your common sense doesn't map well onto an actual society, or at least not this one.
> We disagree, dude. It's no reason to get emotional.
This is the extraordinary privilege you live with. Imagine the conversation is discussing sodomy laws in Texas. "who cares, doesn't affect me, and anyway isn't that kinda gross?" You have the privilege to not worry about it, other people are literally fighting for their right to exist.
If you're finding anger in response to your position, why is your response to hand wave it? "Damn bro, calm down." Are you not at all curious why someone would be so passionate about this issue? Because what we're talking about is America's bloodthirsty retributive justice system that's resulted in one of the highest incarceration rates on earth and essentially a continuation of slavery (prison labor, for profit privatized prisons), and you're dispassionately making "common sense" arguments for not only how that's great, but we should do more of it, and by the way you don't care about whatever evidence I show you demonstrating that you're wrong, you just want to continue believing it or whatever. No shit that's infuriating lol.
> When I talk about law abiding citizens I'm talking about people who don't commit crimes that make life drastically shittier for everyone else.
There's plenty of things people do that make life drastically shittier for everyone else, that isn't illegal. Banks making bad investments and crashing the economy in 2008. Sending soldiers to die in foreign countries. Locking up refugees. Lobbying to keep minimum wage low. Torpedoing welfare budgets. Driving gas guzzling vehicles. Operating a fossil fuel company. Rejecting health insurance claims. Addicting someone to alert bubble dopamine hits. Harvesting user data.
Seems common sense to me that destroying the Gulf coast through blatant malpractice is just as bad as punching someone in the face, but nobody went to jail after the BP oil spill.
> Are they perfect deterrents? Of course not. But I've changed my own behavior to avoid punishment, I've seen a million other people do the same, and there's no possible universe in which I could just read some study online and go "wow, I guess punishments don't work to deter crime!"
It's worth pointing out by the way that this is basically a strawman, no study I linked said "we should stop punishing crime," the basic argument is that the best deterrent is certainty of being punished, whereas degree of punishment holds basically no effect. In this context that means the SFPD quiet quitting is having a much larger effect on increase in crime than, say, eliminating cash bail. In any case the other arguments are about actually solving what drives crime more than anything else which is economic disparity: improving that doesn't require halting the punishment of crime, my point is that the call to arms are a distraction towards ineffective solutions.
Btw I forget that some Americans consider "conservative" an insult, I didn't mean that in a name calling way, I meant that in an attempt to accurately describe the political leanings of the position you hold. I maintain that retributive justice is a conservative policy position, and indeed is a favorite of your Republican party. Note also though that Biden is also a conservative by most international perspectives, and sf politicians are mostly centrists or at best liberals (a term which here means "moderate centrist," not "progressive"). So I didn't mean to name call you, sorry.
> I could continue on, and go over the Norway thing and how I believe it's a completely different situation than the US
Norway is different but I don't see why that means the usa can't apply the basic restorative justice principles
> or go over the housing the homeless thing and talk about how expensive that would be in SF
First, housing first advocates seem to be demonstrating that housing the homeless would be cheaper than the current solution of cycling them in and out of jail while wasting police resources on tearing down their shelters. Second, so what it's expensive? We're talking about humans living on the street. Society is only as good as it is for those living in the worse condition it offers.
I admire you for having a clearer understanding of why you post here. I enjoy the discussions as well I think, and maybe I'm driven by a desire to seek truth? I guess throughout this thread I've been hoping people had SOME evidence to justify the retributive justice model they're all touting and seeking further implementation of, because otherwise to me it just seems like people are seeking further cruelty, but I haven't gotten that, just people saying "doesn't it just make sense? Cut off the hands of thieves, that'll teach them!" So maybe that's why I'm so frustrated.
So we have two dudes with common sense disagreements. We need to decide whether we punish thieves by cutting off their hands or by making them make society whole through labor or otherwise while investigating why they felt the need to steal at all. How do we resolve that other than by seeking the truest effective method through study, experimentation, publishing results? "We disagreed so we did research and found the right answer." Well that's basically what I'm saying we as a society should do and it sounds like you're basically saying "despite that effort I still prefer to just believe I'm right."
And a final thing I don't think I'm communicating well is so many things that turn out to be good policy violate "common sense," because we humans are bug ridden. Our cognitive fallacies cause all sorts of incorrect observation and behavior. This is so common in judicial theory. Zero tolerance policies at school: let's come down hard on crime in school! Result: huge expulsion rates, and incentives choosing the worse of bad behaviors, because they're all punished the same. Or, three strike laws. Repeat criminals aren't gonna change, let's just lock them up forever! Result: high rates of recidivism, overcrowded prisons. Criminalizing drugs. Drugs bad, lead to crime, ban them. Result: cartels, mafia. Result of decriminalization: drop in crime AND drug usage, drop in diseases like HIV. Rent control: lock prices, protect low income families. Result: high income families lock down low income rates, market overcorrects when housing comes available, etc.
Basically when I find myself thinking "seems like common sense," I have the opposite reaction to you: I believe our rational facilities have documented flaws and so my first instinct is to apply rigid logic and evidence to check my understanding.
But, I've demonstrated, it's wrong. You're going to vote for things, and build society in such a way, that makes it worse for all of us.
That's probably the most obnoxious thing anybody's said to you in a while but I can't see any way around that fact: my point of view is absolutely correct so far as I have the ability to confirm this. You haven't been able to convince me otherwise (nor are you interested in trying) so I'm safe to assume my point of view is closer to the truth, and my idea (not mine rather but the one I support) of restorative justice is the correct way to build a better society.
You disagree, won't be convinced, won't read evidence contrary to your experience, and want to make the world more like what you think it should be, which will, as per the evidence presented, make it worse. Furthermore since you're not interested in investigative reasoning for certain subjects about which you're convinced you know the truth (my attempt at your words), when the world gets worse as we step further down the path of retributive justice, you won't acknowledge that your ideology is bad, because you've determined for yourself it's correct and won't be convinced otherwise, and will try to implement it even further. With this ideology locked as such I'd say it's not slippery slope fallacy to suggest you may one day find yourself arguing to literally cut off the hands of thieves.
Given these stakes, how could I not be angry? What a frustrating ideology to encounter!
But people don't respond well to anger so I'll say truthfully and earnestly, if you ignore the subject of the conversation and focus only on the logical and ideological framework I think you're applying here, can you see how refusing to consider studies or arguments that challenge your core beliefs can sometimes be problematic? How it can be a recursive and self feeding problem?
But of course, things do go both ways. Part of the reason people like me adopt such dug-in positions is because there's just so much stupid shit and terrible ideas in society that some kind of filter becomes necessary, and it's not always easy to tune. For every legitimate, good-intentioned proposition out there that may contradict common sense, there are another 10 idiotic propositions, and it can become very laborious to look through them all to try to find the good ones. And you have to understand that I don't have my position out of malice, it's moreso a greater concern for the welfare of what I'd call "law abiding citizens" than what I'd call "criminals" (now that we have clarified the definitions). You may disagree with this, but I don't think it makes me evil or malicious.
Now I do want to say one thing. It is not IMPOSSIBLE to convince me of something when my common sense tells me otherwise. If I could see an example of a major US city, very similar to the ones I've lived in, that has successfully been lenient on crime and had a crime decrease, then I would certainly be open to reconsidering my positions. But throughout my life it seems like the opposite has happened. It seems to me in fact that the "compassion not conviction" policies directly caused the increase in crime. SF is a city that seems to agree with me, given the Chesa Boudin recall. NYC is another example, where that city was actually quite safe in the 2000s and only seemingly with De Blasio's compassion-focused administration did it start to deteriorate again. Chicago is another example.
Basically what I'm trying to say is that I don't feel I'm entirely "refusing to consider" arguments. But when it comes to things that I feel increasingly certain about, it requires an increasingly salient level of proof to convince me otherwise. Like for this particular issue, given that I've been to SF and seen with my own eyes what it's like on the streets there, it would require more than a study to convince me of this, I'd want to go and see the successful policy in action with my own eyes. Because right now my own eyes have seen that the policy was not really that successful, and news stories like the one in the OP reinforce my perception here.
This is kind of off topic, but if I could build my ideal world, I'd begin to do away with cops entirely. Modern technology could enable total, pervasive surveillance of an entire city's public areas. AI could enable automatic monitoring and enforcement. You could build a system of perfect justice, where nobody could get away with anything because it would all be seen. I'd still prefer privacy in the home so that it wouldn't be some hellish dystopia, but otherwise, hell, let's go full Minority Report. The tech is ready and I truly think it would make for a better and safer society, and eliminate lots of problems with human-centric law enforcement such as profiling, brutality, etc. In fact, I'm actually really hopeful that SF tries something like this out. Given the city's impending budget cliff and dwindling police force numbers, they may be faced with a choice between just tolerating increasing lawlessness or starting to use cheap tech to try and keep people safe in other ways.
I think I don't want to line by line you and link bomb, though the temptation is there, but before we go our separate ways I want to somewhat address what you brought up.
I think you're probably right that the usa is a unique environment to apply the reformative justice principles, as you say and for reasons I've mentioned elsewhere in the thread, such as difficulty of achieving true universal healthcare for example. I think a key reason though is the political divide in America and the outsized ability of various people and organizations to make or break a policy.
This is important in the SF case because my running theory, backed I believe by evidence (I won't link bomb) is that for example a relatively progressive politician like Chesa Boudin can be hamstrung by the cops not making as many arrests. For reasons I can't quite comprehend Boudin seems to be hated by a lot of people, but what I've found is that before he was elected the police union was already putting out hit pieces. In reality, Boudin's prosecution rates were the same or higher than his predecessor. In terms of actually putting people in jail, he was just as happy to do it as any other prosecutor, he just was brought less people to put in jail.
Now maybe he deserved to be recalled for his inability to work with the sfpd, I'm not sure, but that doesn't seem related to the two things in line with reformative justice that he did, eliminating cash bail and pretrial detention. Here's the key: there were iirc one or two high profile instances of a person out of pretrial detention that then committed a heinous crime. This is fodder for yellow journalism and confirmation bias. "See, it doesn't work, and furthermore this is an indictment of reformative justice and progressive politics!"
What is never mentioned is that certain forms of crime, particularly violent forms, did drop during his tenure, and in fact rose again after his recall.
The situation with him also seems fodder for misattribution. How much affect can one DA over the course of, what, two years, really have, in the face of record inflation and a historic pandemic? Property crime rose during his tenure but it rose across America (murder rates did too). I have lots of evidence showing that crime rates correlate more strongly with economic disparity than anything else, so if crime is going up in SF, it's probably because of that, rather than a single polarizing politician.
Basically my point is, yeah, your eyes are seeing things, no way I can deny that, but the news never reports the mundane, and the truth of it is San Francisco is a relatively boring place. There are far more violent cities in America, but for whatever reason the media loves to paste a sensationalist story of every single murder in SF, every single robbery. Your eyes can only see what's put in front of them, and crime stats aren't being put in front of them. Little Rock had 119 murders last year, twice San Francisco's, but the media doesn't tout every single one as either the personal failure of a socialist DA or the collective failure of progressive politics in general, so nobody talks about it.
So that's why I argue so strongly in favor of the boring: awareness of cognitive biases and rhetorical fallacies, research, and statistics, because I don't think the more exciting way of being aware of the world will give you an accurate picture. Maybe the job of people like me is to find ways to get this information in front of people that doesn't involve insulting them on internet forums lol
In any case having previously lived in SF I feel like what you're seeing on the streets there is less to do with murderers and more to do with the outsized homeless population and lack of public restrooms. I suppose the car break-ins thing is bad but from what I've read the sfpd is neither defunded nor under staffed (compared to cities with worse or more crime), so I'm not sure what's preventing them from making arrests? My pet theory is they're just kinda shit at their jobs, maybe on purpose. Plenty of stories on here of people showing them GPS tracking for a stolen bike and them shrugging their shoulders.
As for your ideal world, that certainly agrees with the evidence that certainty of punishment is the best deterrent (though deterrence is not necessarily the best way to reduce crime). Having though lived in a pervasive surveillance police state (the PRC) I hesitate to throw my weight behind it. Then again Taiwan has somewhat pervasive surveillance and I haven't found any privacy issues as a result, perhaps because the digital minister is an advocate for privacy, or maybe because much of the surveillance is from private businesses on their stores. There's other considerations with the AI thing such as AI can fail to face recognize on black people more frequently than white depending on the model which could deepen inequalities of the application of justice in the USA. Also such a tool, if built with good intentions, could be abused upon the election of some kind of fascist, and used to target political enemies. In general I'm on board with ideas that reduce brutality and profiling.
I will drop only one link, a quick fact checking of various crime theories in San Francisco, from I think about 2 years ago now https://www.sfgate.com/crime/article/San-Francisco-crime-Che...
Anyway my final question I think is: if you were willing to grant there might be something to my idea that the truth may be more hidden away in statistics and studies, is there a way to bring that truth "before the eyes" of a million people all who have their own things they're worrying about?
Yet there's so many more people incarcerated in the US for such long periods of time than in most other countries. "Life without parole" basically doesn't really exist in Europe.
> Here's the thing - I do have evidence. But it's the evidence I've seen with my own eyes, not something I've read in some paper or study. My evidence is (I see no other way to put it than to be frank) just common sense. I've met plenty of people in my life. I've seen humans and I know how humans behave
Straight out of a Trump speech :)
I want to be absolutely clear - I am in no way suggesting minorities are genetically inclined to be criminals or asking you to speak for all minorities or anything like that. I'm just curious, given your views and your background, what you think when you hear politicians claim that they are fighting inequality by not prosecuting criminals.
I still think we need more cops. We lag behind Europe in cops per capita, and have higher crime rates.
The idea that we should stop prosecuting crimes because it affects one type of citizen or another is ridiculous for a ton of reasons, but specially because of this: minorities are more likely to be in the receiving end of a crime.
We can do both invest in the social aspect to level the playing field and prosecute crime wherever it manifests.
I've heard this excuse before and I don't put much into it. Most of the videos I've seen are bad cops terrorizing people who aren't armed. George Floyd was unarmed, as were countless victims. Karen Garner couldn't hurt anyone. There are many more examples. Also, we're currently a much less armed society than we were before we had this policing issue.
It's because these cops are bad people and there is no accountability. I'm sure in some departments this sort of thing is encouraged, many it's excused. We can agree that bad police should be fired and charged right?
I don't get the gun angle, people have always had guns in the US. There are fewer households with guns now than there were since the 1990s.
Someone did a survey of 15K police officers and gun restrictions in 2013 here:
https://www.police1.com/gun-legislation-law-enforcement/arti...
And when it comes to finding ways to reduce gun violence and large scale shootings, most cops say a federal ban on so-called “assault weapons” isn’t the answer.
More than 91 percent of respondents say it would either have no effect or a negative effect in reducing violent crime. This is an overwhelming response by those whose job it is to actually deal with this issue on the front lines.
More than 91 percent of respondents support the concealed carry of firearms by civilians who have not been convicted of a felony and/or not been deemed psychologically/medically incapable.
A full 86 percent feel that casualties would have been reduced or avoided in recent tragedies like Newtown and Aurora if a legally-armed citizen was present (casualties reduced: 80 percent; avoided altogether: 60 percent).
Most gun deaths are by handguns, not "assault rifles". They also know that a federal ban can be negated by 2 minutes of work with a drill bit.
Similarly, police aren't afraid of people pulling assault rifles out of their glove boxes and pockets.
What videos did this person see, that you are referring to? Are you saying there isn't evidence of a problem of police brutality? I recall a survey of Black NY city police; most of them had been harassed when off-duty.
Could you give an example of who has this idea?
> minorities are more likely to be in the receiving end of a crime
So therefore innocent people should be harrassed and abused, beaten up and jailed?
> prosecute crime wherever it manifests
That's not what happens.
If the laws are bad, fix them. If the police are too brutal, curtail them.
This is the only path towards with a healthy society. This isn't always easy, and sometimes it seems impossible. However, sanctioning lawlessness and giving up on reform is no solution. It is a race to the bottom, and hurts minorities even more. If you think building towards equality is hard, imagine how much harder it is when theft, rape, and murder is rampant in your community.
This is represented in the opinions and surveys of minority communities. People want less bias and police brutality, but they also want more police on the streets and more enforcement of laws.
Trends suggest otherwise: https://www.ppic.org/publication/crime-trends-in-california/
The big peak in violent crime in the 1990s is the crack epidemic. I personally saw driveby shooting attacks and personal murders in broad daylight; 24th street (and the Mission in general) used to be considered a no-go area by folk in better-off neighborhoods.
It seems to me that the basic problem in SF is wealth disparity. The city is a great place to make money if you are in the finance or tech industries and have decent social skills. But the wealth that stays in SF tends to build upward rather than lift up less well off neighborhoods. Not only is housing expensive, community space for weird stores/art galleries/music events is also at a premium, which severely limits avenues for grey market enterprise and social mixing/mobility. The unorganized crime exists because regular jobs are not that profitable and there's a large and deliberately-created (at the federal level) underclass of undocumented people with no straightforward path to legal workforce participation.
SF was a remarkably different city prior to 9-11, which ushered in a securocratic mindset in many respects. A simple but telling example is that nearly BART stations used to have toilets, though as you might expect some of them were nasty. After 9-11, these were closed in the name of security, a 'temporary' situation which has persisted for over 20 years. Concession stands like news/candy/flower vendors gradually vanished too, along with buskers. Subway stations stopped being part of the city's social life in favor of pure transit functionality. Likewise bus stops now have all sorts of built-in tech to tell you when the next bus is arriving in 20 different languages, but the bus shelters are deliberately constructed not to provide any shelter from the elements, or even make it easy to sit down.
The state (qua city government) very much maintains its monopoly on violence; police budgets have gone up rather than down. It's just selectively enforced because the police are themselves a political constituency who compete with other agencies for funding.
https://abc7news.com/sfpd-budget-defund-the-police-departmen...
> In April [2022], [...] the dept issued 338 tickets for traffic violations. By comparison, in April 2014, the year Vision Zero began, the department issued 11,612 tickets.
Does that mean nobody violates traffic laws in SF anymore? Of course not. But if the tickets aren't issued they're not rolled up into stats. Same with all sorts of violent and property crime.
When I lived in the mid-mission a few years ago I had to call in a shooting that happened outside my bedroom window. There were a ton of violent altercations between pimps and prostitutes that were just straight-up ignored. And 24th St became an open-air Walgreens.
> The letter highlighted alarming data backing up many residents’ concerns that police have thrown up their hands. For example, last year the Department of Police Accountability opened 595 cases into alleged police wrongdoing; the largest share by far, 42.6%, related to “neglect of duty.” That percentage has ticked up steadily since 2016, when neglect of duty made up 32% of complaints. [1]
[edit] Your own source seems to back that up. Your source is for all of California, not SF. And one of the big sub-headings is "crime rates vary dramatically by region and category" and specifically calls out SF as having an outsized quantity of property crime.
> The state’s highest rate of violent crime was in the San Joaquin Valley, which had 640 violent incidents per 100,000 residents. The highest rate of property crime was in the San Francisco Bay Area, at 2,718 per 100,000 residents.
[1] https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/bayarea/heatherknight/article...
(They will happily and helpfully suggest that a report isn’t necessary and probably you don’t want to file one anyway. They are human, and lazy.)
Basically, someone in this story is confused.
That's 100% speculative. Do you have evidence of their effect on crime stats, and wouldn't that effect also take place when crime was higher in the 90s?
E.g, someone smashes window and I don't expect cops to do something. So I don't report it. But someone shows up dead on my doorstep, whether or not I expect to them to solve it, id report it because there's a dead person on my doorstep.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/violent-crime-san-...
How do you square this statement with gentrification? Feels like a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation...
How - like tangible, tactical recommendations that have the political willpower to get enacted?
Really?
> police budgets have gone up rather than down.
And what do you think the police are supposed to do when the prosecutions by the DA fall off a cliff? Don't you think that maybe, just maybe, if the number of cops remains unchanged, but the percentage of criminals they detain being arraigned/charged/arrested drops, that maybe, just maybe, crime will go up?
The cognitive dissonance is just unbelievable here.
What are the stats on DA prosecutions - I've heard that claim in other places about progressive DAs, and they turned out to be false.
Also, it's not clear to me that crime goes up if prosecutions go down; it's possible, but it's possible that looking at all arrests the same, for every alleged crime, is meaningless; it's possible that more arrests means worse cases; it's possible police are providing worse evidence, or the distribution of crime types has changed, or criminals have no idea of crime stats and have other motivations.
Is there some correlation you can point to?
I don't waste time arguing with far left ideologues.
It's like talking to fundamentalist Christians about evolution: wasted time.
Your statement about it not being clear that crime goes up if less criminals are prosecuted is the most unintentionally hilarious thing I've seen in a long time. Do you even realize how utterly lacking in common sense the statement is?
"Overall Prosecution Rate in SF Remains Largely the Same Under Boudin" - NBC
Here's the raw data from the DA's office: https://www.sfdistrictattorney.org/policy/data-dashboards/
I'll also ask you to consider how this whole thread could have gone differently if you and everyone else had bothered to constructively engage with the discussion, and done the research you so dismissively told others to do.
"Guys, you'll never believe it! According to the DA's office, the DA is doing great!"
You have your dates and anecdotes off. The crack epidemic was in the 1980s, not the 1990s. There was, however, always a serious heroin trade in that area. After the gang truce in 1992, the Mission was incredibly safe and a great place to live. Going to the bars after work and spilling out into the streets after 2 am was a safe and peaceful affair. Further, a lot of the property crime that people are complaining about has nothing to do with locals; it was perpetrated by organized gangs from outside the city. This is still true today and several investigative news articles on this phenomenon have been published recently. The Mission was never a "no go" area by people who lived in the city. It was an incredibly vibrant place to live and work, with great bars, restaurants, stores, and culture. In many ways, the Mission is the heart of San Francisco given its centralized location and history. For anyone to describe it as a no go area reveals that they never lived there and know nothing about it. That all changed when the tech bros moved out from the Midwest and East coast and chased all the artists out of the city. These people who were forced out were the people who actually cared about their communities and helped each other out and were the spirit and life blood of what the city was in its heart and soul. Now the new blood doesn’t like the new city they helped create, but of course, it’s always someone else’s fault.
For anyone to describe it as a no go area reveals that they never lived there and know nothing about it.
...which was why I said it was considered that way 'by folk in better off neighborhoods.' People who lived in places like North Beach or the Marina were horrified by it.
You are right about the influx of tech people during the first boom (along with the finance bros, though those have shaped SF in various ways since the gold rush) pushing people out. By the 1990s Haight/Ashbury had already become an unaffordable tourist trap with most of the fancy victorian houses being super expensive. In contrast SoMa was a much more industrial than it is today, with enough turnover that there were always empty spaces that could be rented or borrowed for a rave.
Honestly, if that’s what you took away from my comment, I don’t think there’s anything I could say to explain it to you. From a systems POV, artists are the bellwether indicator for the health of a city. They function to maintain homeostasis and self-regulation of the community. When they are forced out of a city, the city goes into decline. It’s more complex than that, but that’s part of it.
Think about it for 30 seconds: if artists (the general class of writers, musicians, dancers, painters etc.) can afford to live in a city in a sustainable way, that means the economy has achieved a stability where inequality is low, wages meet cost of living, and there’s enough free time for people to create and invent and design without sacrificing their entire life at the altar of a 9-5 job.
And when that niche is disturbed and the artists are forced to leave, you then have a large influx of high earners who replace them and raise the level of inequality for everyone, except this time, there is no real interest in maintaining the community and culture that existed before, but rather a new focus on increasing and preserving wealth. That wealth is than targeted and preyed upon by predatory criminals who before would not have paid much attention to low income artists.
But to put your misinterpretation and misreading aside for the moment so as to focus on something more constructive, there is good evidence that as more money was pumped into the city from newcomers, a new predator/prey relationship arose from organized crime groups which focused on smash and grabs and home robberies.
The so-called South American Tourist Gang has targeted homes throughout California, for example. It’s also of note that organized criminal gangs engaging in smash and grabs are not unique to California.
The popular right wing talking point that blames progressive California laws and lax law enforcement for crime has almost zero support in the academic criminal justice community and is based mostly on fear and anger, not evidence. It makes for good political fodder for conservative candidates but isn’t based on reality.
You own data suggests otherwise
https://www.ppic.org/publication/crime-trends-in-california/
The peak in violent crime was the 90s. The peak of property crime was 80s, and there were 40 years of crime decline at the exact same time wealth disparity was growing. What changed recently was the new lax attitude on crime, decarceration, and hated towards the police.
Truth is, San Francisco did not follow the pattern of the rest of CA and saw rising murders through the 2000's. It finally declined in 2009 after a huge federal and local crackdown on gangs and MS13 in San Francisco.
Indeed, I hate when wealth disparity breaks into my car.
I lived in SF for a year (in Nob Hill) in my early 20s living with my then GF, back in 2002-2003. It was a beautiful, safe, just chill place then. It's disgusting now. I was there in 2019, and one of the things that jumped out at me was how I constantly smelled piss and a big portion of the city looked the way only the Tenderloin used to. And yes, it's the fault of the SF politicians.
> Growing up in highly orderly, safe environments, they completely take order for granted.
Do you have evidence for their background and reasoning?
Much of 'order' is often abusing politically vulnerable people, which provides 'order' for the wealthy white population, but not for others.
Can we re-phrase "monopoly of violence" to maintaining the rule of law. The government has an obligation to maintain the rule of law. Monopoly on violence by itself does not provide real legitimacy.
I don't think we have figured out if this was premeditated or not, but either way, SF is becoming incredibly dangerous. Progressive DA's and a neutered police force are to blame for the rise in violent crime.
Many of my friends have taken their remote gigs and left SF in the last 3 years. What's the point in rolling the dice every time you walk outside for some air and to potentially catch an attack or worse? I can't blame them at all for the move.
Tell me more about local hero George Floyd.
Absolute retardation.
Overall deaths seems like the correct metric.
If a metro area becomes a literal Gotham City (ie drug and crime completely integrated into daily life) then the outcome is decades of lost human experience across hundreds of thousands (millions?) of people.
Addressing police brutality is one hard to solve problem, but cameras and other initiatives seem to be helping. But your city turning into a crime haven creates thousands of problems, and may not be able to solve.
This doesn't get into any context or whether anyone died as a result, but from the available data, the highest number of incidents where someone was shot by police in SF was 11 in 2010, the lowest number was 2 in 2021.
Why? I’m certain more than one police officer has had to fire their weapon while responding to a domestic violence situation.
The police are on strike and that's all there is to it. They haven't been "neutered". SF has an average number of sworn personnel for cities of its size, 23 per 10k residents.
No city has figured out how to attack the problem of police productivity, except arguably Camden NJ.
For the record, that isn’t true, it’s where they set the threshold for a crime being treated as a high class of misdemeanor or felony (I can’t remember which) and how stiff the sentence is. I live in AZ and our dollar amount threshold for the same types of crime are actually higher than California’s but no one tries to say that you can “walk out of a CVS with $X and there’s no penalty” because some people are just looking to tear down CA, not actually discuss policy and it’s impacts.
In most of CA misdemeanors are ignored, because of other laws and practices. So yes, it really does mean you can walk out with $950 and literally nothing will happen to you - unless you do it in front of a police officer or something. This is why Apple stores here pay police officers to hang out at the entrance.
Again, supported statements are more convincing.
Then they have to go back to reporting by filling forms, and they report a lot less.
What does that tell you about the accuracy of "the statistics"?
Separately, I have personally witnessed 3 instances of store shoplifting (like filling a whole bag with anything that you can and just walking out) where the police weren't even called because it was useless. They were just yelled at until they casually walked away.
I have watched a car window get smashed and a bag stolen from the car on Haight St. near Ameoba at 1PM on a Saturday. Everyone just watched, no one called the cops from what I could see (I didn't).
Last night I watched two guys use an angle grinder to cut a bike lock and steal a bike on Mission st. I didn't call the police.
I'm probably part of the problem now since I don't even call the cops anymore like I used to, but its hard to feel like you can do anything about it when I have seen them just let people go time and time again.
Talk to literally anyone who lived there for more than a few years and you'll heard endless stories of crimes against them or their friends that go unreported. I can give you a handful of them myself, and seems like basically everyone I knew who lived there had their own.
Over the years I've read story after story of horrific crimes committed there by 10, 20, 30-time repeat offenders. You can look no further than Boudin's own words and actions.
To try and claim otherwise is basically politically motivated gaslighting. Walk down any number of streets, talk to locals, it's clear as day to anyone with a brain and eyes that there's something uniquely wrong with that city.
Talking to multiple individuals is not statistics.
Poll, noun, …
This is not a meaningful metric because the daytime population is a lot higher. Many of the crime victims are not SF residents, and most of the criminals are not SF residents either.
This is not the case in NYC, which has a lot of commuters between boroughs.
Then why is the PD of every single major American city dramatically understaffed?
I agree the SFPD’s lack of cooperation and inaction is a central issue that needs addressing by cleaning house and rebuilding. The leftist proposal (often shorthanded to “abolish the police”) would say wipe away the current structure that answers to no one built for antagonism and punishment and replace it with a service bound to strong community oversight tasked with protection, aid, and rehabilitation.
That idea may be the literal scientifically perfect solution to crime or an impossibly impractical utopian fantasy but we’ll never know from SF’s vague motions. Appointing Boudin DA so he could reduce charges and lessen punishments without making corresponding changes in the police force to focus on community outreach and aid services was never a real attempt that could be judged, and was hamstrung from the beginning in a way that could only result in failure.
But even if you think real try at that proposal would never work and the correct solution for addressing crime in SF is something very different the same type of failure is guaranteed if the city doesn’t address the point you made. If the police refuse to act in accordance with the wishes of the community and aren’t replaced with people who will the city will never have a cohesively focused law enforcement strategy that any approach requires to have a chance at succeeded.
The homelessness issue is the exact same thing with SF continuing to be afraid to commit to anything more than half measures regardless of costs. The city has a homeless population of around 8-10 thousand and spends around $1.1b a year on services. Over $100k per person, a bit more than the average income in the city, how does that make any sense? Providing every homeless person an apartment, free food, healthcare, drug rehabilitation, and job search services would very likely cost less and actually solve the issue. Like yes that's a massive simplification and not actually workable in the current world, especially without the rest of the country providing similar services, but it approximates an actual plan with singular direction and the numbers involved highlight demonstrate the problem.
San Francisco really wants to be seen as progressive on homelessness so it keeps throwing large amounts of money at one-off half-baked projects like $5k a month per person on tent spaces in parking lots to prevent COVID spread in the homeless or $70k a year to fund new beds in shelters the homeless can only sleep in at night or $1.7m to build a single public toilet.
At the same time it really wants it to seem like its listening to its tax payers and taking action with visible effect so it also tosses however many millions on encampment sweeps, building hostile architecture, and having law enforcement harass or temporarily arrest the homeless all of which just results in the homeless moving somewhere else a few blocks away.
So it ends up wasting this extraordinary amount of money and effort doing a whole bunch of nothing instead of you know, actually getting the homeless off the street. Because that would require establishing a goal with measurable criteria, forming a comprehensive plan to accomplish it, and working as a cohesive public body to make it happen.
I really rambling here but I feel like pretty much every single issue in San Francisco stems from this same problem. The city and its government is terrified of doing anything that requires the integrity to build a concrete project that it could be judged by, in whichever political direction, and so it keeps creating a giant mismatch of conflicting partial measures it can parade around as progress to counter criticism and avoid quantifiable failure while never actually making any forward movement. See everything with the schools or the cost of living or public transit or other infrastructure or a million other things for even more examples of this.
As long as SF continues to half-ass everything and avoid commitment nothing is going to change.
I don't trust these numbers, or at least how meaningful they are. Vancouver officially has a similar homeless population, but on a sunny day you can go to the downtown eastside and see 8000 people who you might assume are homeless. Maybe some of them are sleeping in cars, or SROs, or squats, and don't identify as homeless. Or they're currently in jail, incarcerated, a hospital, or a mental health facility, and also don't get counted towards the number. The number is entirely determined by groups that come up with them coordinating an effort to go out over a 24 hour period and ask people if they're homeless. Whoever says yes gets added to the count.
I think the number would be more meaningful if they instead asked people about their living conditions, and came up with a number of people who fall below some basic standard of housing (possibly a combination of: >100 sq ft per person, working stove, working bathroom, working utilities)
I have friends in London Breed's cabinent and most of her choices are made in the context of her political aspirations for her next office. This means bandaids and duct tape for the city if that doesn't rock the boat.
This political problem isn't unique and I don't know how to fix it. The public needs leaders who's number 1 priority is their current job, not building towards their next job.
In a vacuum, where news of free apartments don’t leak out and invite more people to coke for them, maybe
It’s in poor taste indeed to acknowledge that you don’t know the facts of a murder, and to still insist that the killing supports your politics.
“Just part & parcel of living in a _big city_.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3801018/Terror-atta...
My town of 80k, which feels perfectly safe 99% of the time, has had >2x the per capita murder rate of NYC, and has for years.
I dare say my town is a great deal safer than your town. I wonder what the difference is.
"Part and parcel of living in a great global city is you’ve got to be prepared for these things, you’ve got to be vigilant, you’ve got to support the police doing an incredibly hard job, you got to support the security services."
https://www.aap.com.au/factcheck/what-londons-mayor-really-s...
This is a quote that I'm sure you would agree with, as would anyone. Stop spreading this misinformation.
Are you shying away from discussing politics whenever there is a school shooting as well?
It is always poor taste to project one’s politics into the uncertainty around a tragedy and then turn around and use the imagined facts to argue politics.
I’m less opposed to using established, non-imaginary facts.
This to me sounds like you like to talk politics when a tragedy strikes, but only if the politics is on your side.
For example, SF decaying can be argued as an established, non-imaginary fact. It's easy to hide behind "facts", 'statistics", "science" to push your political point, thinking you are infallible. Even more so, a lot of people say "it's not even politics, it's basic science" - but these are all fallacies. In the end, almost everything can be traced back to politics.
Do you think it would have been better to ask a few questions before resorting to shame as a tactic to change someone's behavior?
(See what I did there?)
Jesus, the bubble the typical HN SV commenter must live in.
I'm sure it's frustrating to see crime rates increase, but "incredibly dangerous?" SF still has far less crime per capita than many of its peer cities. Where are all the displaced SV millionaires moving with dramatically lower crime rates where these people actually feel safe?
At least based on that data set (and it's easy to find disagreeing data sets), murders are actually below average.
But the problem is: There isn't a definitive data source. The FBIs UCR[1] is closest, but because they split by agency, it's hard to find relevant geographic data. For SF, you're looking at BART Alamenda, BART Contra Costa, SF County Highway Patrol, BART SF, SF Sheriff's office, SFPD, SF State University,Union Pacific Railroad, UCLA SF, San Mateo BART, South SF PD, Santa Clara BART. (If the US stopped encouraging everybody to play cops and robbers on their own, that'd be nice)
But even if you settle for one of them, data is only reported up to 2021, and that means graphs stop at 2020. It's almost as if there was profit in making current crime a matter of opinion instead of facts.But for the data set? Violent crime is down.
Fine, let's ask sfgov.org then: https://sfgov.org/scorecards/public-safety/violent-crime-rat...
Turns out, homicide is pretty much stable over the last decade. Same for aggravated assault.Rape is down to 2010 levels again. Robbery is down. None of the numbers are significantly up.
This might be more dangerous than other cities, but it's at current levels for a long while now.
[1] https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crim...
When you look at the statistics you see that shootings have gone up markedly.
"With a crime rate of 54 per one thousand residents, San Francisco has one of the highest crime rates in America compared to all communities of all sizes - from the smallest towns to the very largest cities. One's chance of becoming a victim of either violent or property crime here is one in 18. Within California, more than 98% of the communities have a lower crime rate than San Francisco."
Incidentally, only a small fraction of HN users (10% or so, last I checked) are anywhere near SV. HN is an international forum, which is why we get regional and nationalistic flamewars to begin with.
Source?
> Progressive DA's and a neutered police force are to blame for the rise in violent crime.
Source?
...
Disappointed to see this purely emotional appeal to partisan politics as the top comment. Bring statistics next time, show that the city is actually more dangerous than other big cities (especially conservative big cities), and show that policy changes are to blame. Don't use HN as a dumping ground for your political opinions.
EDIT: Wow, I seem to have struck a nerve. To those of you who downvote my comment: I'm not saying what my parent comment claims is incorrect (though I have my doubts). I'm saying it's just a set of unsubstantiated opinions. Maybe those opinions reflect reality, but if they do, you should be able to show that using statistics. If this offends you, maybe consider whether your own stance on the issue is based in reality or if it's a result of emotional appeals such as my parent comment.
Interesting that you say this after our progressive DA was recalled & our mayor is trying to supplement the SFPD budget by $27.6M.
Also interesting, I have lived in SF since 1972 and only been mugged once, in my 1st yr there (I was 7 & mugged by kids across the street in the projects for my Mickey M watch and about $0.50). I will freely and safely walk anywhere in the City at any time of day or night. And I'm an older guy.. This ongoing discourse is tiring.
Nice anecdote. Have you heard the one about the tech CTO that got stabbed to death? We have data about this too and it's very much trending in the wrong direction.
If you're tired of arguing with people who are begging you to care about their lives, you can always just remain silent.
But I do not feel safe at all. What do your kids and grandkids say about SF? Maybe that is generational - I’m in 50s.
Please don't. This is not safe, even if you have managed not to be a victim so far.
Not commenting on the current DA's performance yet, but even "good changes" take time. SF didn't get this way overnight.
boggles my mind that people can rationalize things like not being able to leave bags in their car or they'll get their windows smashed and their stuff stolen. People in other places don't have to live like that
Outside the US, maybe.
The bar is leaving your stuff in your car, not feeling safe everywhere all the time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jDdyDBdJZg
Don't worry, we'll destroy what little is left of this great nation.
You can reform and adopt working policies here too.
There are reports that police would book a criminal, yet DA simply released them right away. I'm not sure how much police can do about it.
He died at Harrison and Main st. That area is tame compared to the mission, tenderloin, and other spots in SOMA. Of all places, I would never have guessed a stabbing would occur there but I haven't been in the area since 2020.
Just a give a sense of the place, the area has a lot of apartments and skyrises. A friend of mine lived two blocks away at the jasper building. We would walk around there at night with his dog and never really saw anybody else in the area past midnight.
My company's headquarters was also a few blocks away directly across the street from the Salesforce park. Several major tech companies and organizations had satellite offices and/or headquarters in the area.
When I'm given a task to complete, my first instinct is to find where other developers have done what I'm asked to do and then utilize their wisdom into my own solution which will likely look very similar to theirs.
Why do we see such drastically different approaches to solving issues in society and government?
Want better education? Step 1: Find a state/city that has great education and study what they did to achieve it
Want less crime? Step 1: Mimic a state/city that has successfully reduced crime
Seems so simple to me but yet I never hear politicians/people saying things like "Boston has successfully raised their level of education by doing XYZ so we're going to follow those steps here with minor tweaks to best suite our area"
We do. It’s called “product-market fit” in software. It’s called “elections” in democratic government. The government provides the services and competence its leaders, and consequently its electorate, demands.
San Francisco’s electorate demanded what it’s getting. As you can see just from these comments, “the facts” are twisted, distorted, and obfuscated to confirm a preferred narrative. But the faith in the narrative, whichever narrative you hold, never wavers.
Because half the country doesn't like the answers that experience produces. Reducing crime isn't hard: support and hire police, put criminals behind bars, and ticket even small/petty crime (broken windows policing). The formula works but because evenly applying the rules produces disparate outcomes among various groups it's evidently racist and it's preferable to just allow violent criminals to run unchecked on the streets.
Am I taking crazy pills, or is this just simply not the approach that countries with globally low crime rates take? At the very least, it's insanely reductive. USA already has the highest incarceration rate per capita in the world. Supporting and hiring more police officers into a broken system won't help anything, especially when the cops are often criminals themselves (let alone the fact that their priorities so frequently seem to be contrary to the community's).
On some level, sure, we need a form of policing that the public trusts, and we need to take crime seriously when appropriate. USA is nowhere near the first point, and is fumbling the bag terribly when trying to apply the second point.
Strong social support nets and programs, fostering community and civic culture, a focus on rehabilitation instead of punishment, working to prevent the conditions that create violent crime in the first place--these are all much more effective steps as opposed to "more cops, more people in jail."
America is a more violent place; it has been for its entire history. Things that work in places with incredible cultural homogeneity don't work here, no matter how many happy images they conjure. What actually works here is policing, and SF is an example of people who believe your post following it off a cliff.
The conditions that prevent violent crime are simple: consequences for violence. Many jurisdictions let people that commit violent crime walk again and again.
From my neck of the woods? The perpetrator of the Waukesha parada massacre had a long history of violent behavior and was out on bail for trying to run someone over with his car a few days prior. Aliyah Perez, the niece of a Milwaukee alderman, was killed in a domestic situation by a man that had previously committed "a brutal domestic attack in which he stomped on, choked, and punched the victim, pulling out clumps of her hair and knocking out a tooth." He was given a minimum sentence only to return to his previous behavior and kill his next victim.
I don't care how our prison population compares to the rest of the world if clearly dangerous and violent people are walking free. The purpose of prison is to separate such people from the rest of society.
Clearly it's better to stop people from becoming violent criminals, then to wait (or push them, e.g. by increasing income inequality, reducing respect for "unskilled" professions, etc.) for them to become violent criminals and then punish them.
If everyone in a country feels valuable and equitable coming up with solutions that benefit everyone is very easy. As it stands in the US there will always be someone that sees themselves losing something and prevents any improvement.
It is far from proven that "broken windows policing" is effective, and in fact there is much evidence to the contrary. See, for instance, the peer-reviewed meta-analyses described here: https://news.northeastern.edu/2019/05/15/northeastern-univer...
There is not conclusive proof that so-called "broken windows policing" works as advertised.
Nevertheless:
Decent people fix broken windows - literal and metaphorical ones - no matter what the stats say.
Fwiw, "governance" does exactly that. Many states literally copy, or copy-then-tweak California law (e.g. motor vehicle efficiency requirements).
I know it can't be copied wholesale, but there are certain aspects I think would be nice, such as having penalties for committing crimes.
Public services are just massive, costly, complicated, and cater to all sorts of vulnerable populations, and the public have pay for it. The time horizon on some complicated projects is so long that knowledge can change in the meantime and make the project/strategies look incoherent. E.g., some countries decommissioned public transport options over decades when cars became more widespread, and are undoing it now because cars became too widespread, and it'll take decades to rectify. Then there are world events that upend everything, such as Ukraine or COVID-19. It's just very complicated, far more complicated than anything in software development in my experience.
the point of having a bunch of different states and municipalities is you can test something in one place and see if it works. like weed legalization, some states did it and the world didn't end so others try. or constitutional carry, some states did it and the world didn't end so others try.
there's some poli sci theory that politics is actually about the majority's schadenfreude at fucking over the minority. which seems increasingly credible. but that means we've been pushing more and more stuff to the feds for years so this is now harder to do.
let states and counties do more stuff again. like this should be a party neutral issue, let the dems to more dem stuff and the reps to more rep stuff.
Sf needs to get their shits together, i still can’t believe that the majority of the high income earners stayed home because they’re afraid of the people on the street. I often asked my mates when I visited SF, how come a city so rich has such a basic security issue where people don’t feel safe walking around their own city??
My condolences to the family. The guy was too young.
Hope this is a wake up call, but evidence points to the contrary in present day SF
The area where this man died is known as Rincon Hill and is dominated by tech offices, Sweetgreens, and luxury highrise apartment buildings and is basically dead after 8pm every day of the week. I lived a block away from where this man was stabbed for a month and it felt safe and dead quiet once all the tech workers go home.
I visit SF at least once a year, and default to my learned habit of walking alone, and later at night.
No more.
Europe is not a monolith.
Different areas also have different problems.
It's like the whole talk about "walkable cities" or healthcare.
Everything is frame from a US perspective and simplified to an absurd level so that no contextual criticism is possible without descending into weird political tribalism and an apples to oranges comparison between an entire continent and a country.
e: Also, sorry, it's ridiculous to say the US looks to Europe too much when discussing policy. This almost never happens, and when it does it's from the left, who has 0 actual influence. Every policy discussion should begin by talking about prior art & what we've observed about the effectiveness of policies as implemented elsewhere. It'll never show causality, but it'll start the discussion off with some possible causal links to explore w/ our own policy experiments!
Kiev, 2020-2022.
Pre-war Kyiv was still much much better than say St. Louis.
It's a city in a country engaged in a hot war!
Might as well add Lagos too!
Let's assume all of those happened in Kiev, with a population of 2.8 million (since I can't find more specific data easily right now). That gives a wildly inflated homicide rate per 100,000 population of 51.
St Louis, Baltimore, Birmingham (AL) all had murder rates that year higher than this inflated figure.
I don't think it's in dispute that most European capitals of any size have areas where one could easily get murdered, though. I can personally easily think of areas of London and Paris where I'd not be surprised by news of it happening.
Not really sure what you're talking about.
> When compared with the previous year, overall funding for policing (including any in-year adjustments) for the financial year ending March 2023 will increase by 2.8% in real terms. This will be the eighth consecutive year in which policing funding has increased in real terms
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-funding-for-...
If you're not in that demographic, you're probably fine.
Simply to remain more anonymous.
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268504/homicide-rate-eu...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territ...
What are the arguments against your position that you think are strongest and why are they so weak that you think they can be considered ‘incontrovertible’?
I don't know of any non-straw arguments against my position that demographics are a dominating factor in homicide rates because of the high quality of the homicide data. Note that I say factor and not cause. The causes for these observable patterns are very much under debate. Nevertheless, corpses are hard to ignore. The paperwork almost always gets filed, so the data quality is considerably higher than for underreported crimes such as rape.
Even Istanbul, which is a 15M population city in a country with serious economic turmoil and and has huge number of refugees and illegal immigrants from war torn countries, is much batter than most of the US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_homicide_rat...
During the civil war in Lebanon in eighties it was safer there than in modern US.
And of course it all depends on many factors, but I know for a fact that not all of Paris is safe, or all of Berlin. You have your bad apples everywhere.
Doesn't have to be. Almost all (if not all) European cities have much lower homicide rates. To the tune of multiple times lower.
When it's about homicide rates, it kinda is though.
> Different areas also have different problems.
It's rarely violence at the level you see in an American city.
> It's like the whole talk about "walkable cities" or healthcare.
Yeah, I feel it for you, but it's mostly true. With rare exceptions.
While in the US it's mostly false, with rare exceptions.
>In 2017-18 there were 145 homicides in London, of which approximately 80 were carried out using a knife. There were an additional 4,793 incidents of "knife crime with injury".
which sadly does seem to be more than daily. That said living in central London I don't see any of it.
Turns out, shockingly to me at least, that the US also has a much higher deaths due to stabbing rate than the UK.
0.60/100k residents in the US vs 0.08/100k residents in the UK.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/stabbing-...
That’s almost an entire order of magnitude. And on top of that you add the many order of magnitudes greater homicides in the US thanks to firearms.
US governments need to scrap their existing operational model tackling drug users and adopt the Swiss National Strategy on Addiction and the four-pillar policy. There are no junkies in the streets unlike in the 1990s.
https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home/strategie-und-politik/p...
https://www.bag.admin.ch/dam/bag/en/dokumente/npp/Sucht/Nati...
https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home/strategie-und-politik/n...
In the meanwhile, considering the U.S. has an order of magnitude higher rate of stabbing, it’s highly unlikely that London would have a higher, never mind a significantly higher, rate of stabbings than SF.
A small point about language, in case you or anyone else didn't know: In English, it sounds weird to use "female" as a noun to refer to people. If, in that sentence, you would replace "female"/"females" with a word like "man"/"men," then you probably want to be using "woman"/"women" instead of "females." Using "female" as a noun for people can come off as dehumanising since it's how we refer to ex. animals in various situations. This applies to men too! Use "men" or "boys" or similar instead of "males"! Dehumanising language affects everyone.
Not upset / telling you to change immediately / etc., just thought it might be useful to bring up in case (:
Edit: Done engaging with this, thanks for the comments all! Don't want to accidentally start a flame war any more than I may already might have. Sorry mods!
Some light reading on the topic that might help:
"Why is calling women females a bad thing?" https://www.reddit.com/r/NoStupidQuestions/comments/tvp97b/w...
"I hate when men call women "females" instead of saying women" https://www.reddit.com/r/TwoXChromosomes/comments/u735sl/i_h...
"CMV: Using the word “female” to talk about a woman or girl is not sexist/wrong/inappropriate" https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/hzj5ox/cmv_us...
"When did calling females, female become offensive?" https://www.reddit.com/r/NoStupidQuestions/comments/re0dc0/w...
"What’s the deal with calling women “females?”" https://www.reddit.com/r/ask/comments/xa3jwp/whats_the_deal_...
By "it sounds weird" you actually mean "in the past few years there's been a movement to hyperfocus on this small language quirk that nobody really cared about in the past". Just so we're clear.
What sounds odd to you can be perfectly normal to others.
> Don't push your biases onto me.
Might want to try taking your own advice.
Please show me where I did any of:
- Assume why people are using the words they are
- Assume why people care/don't care about a certain issue
- Tried to force my values onto people.
Saying "if you didn't know, wording things this way can come off weird. Maybe try X instead? No pressure (:" is very different from "yeah well obviously your intent here is X [because of the last few years]." I'm not here to force people to change. But if people didn't know something, and do want to change on their own, I'd rather the information be there for them if they want it.
What I did say is that you're pushing your biases onto others while simultaneously telling others not to do the same thing.
Your life experiences have led you to the point today where you object to a certain use of the word "female". That's fine.
But taking your personal objection, which is not a universially agreed upon truth, and using it to lecture someone else in a condescending "you must not know English" way is another matter and probably why you're catching heat right now.
"To me" is the key bit here. I'm conscious of this particular issue since I've run into it on the internet a few times. Whenever I've mentioned it to a woman in a face to face conversation (in the UK) they've looked at me like I was barking mad. I even corrected my mother (she referred to "females" when talking about women) which resulted in a lengthy tirade. She is old though to be fair.
I blame the Ferengi.
>Most people who word things that way don't use the term "males" in a similar way
Conversely, I'm not sure many people are keeping track of this since no-one objects to be called male if they're a man.
In the last few years there's been a hyperfocus on restricting genders that has caused a minority of native-English speakers to start overusing the word "female" with extra emphasis: which may be leading to learners to consider it a normal word to use casually, but historically it has mainly been applied in formal medical/scientific settings.
I think this is accurate. In fact, my grandmother would have said 'ladies' or 'girls' ('gals') rather than 'women'.
Yes incels are utterly annoying despicable broken records of tediously uncreative low quality mental illness, i also strongly dislike them - but for monolinguist americans to start to paint with such an absurdly wide brush is far worse. Choose your bloody battles.
Honestly, it's all about context and really the people say "oh he used female workers instead of women workers" what a pig are the people who are going to be mad no matter what they're literally just looking for an excuse.
And quite simply I find that demonisation of the word female to be rude and fundamentally sexist. We wouldn't have a problem saying "two males walking around" but in escence you would have a problem with "two females walking around". The fact being female is considered dehumanisng is a problem in itself and sexist. Being male is not dehumanising. See how that got turned around? You had good intentions then I got mad and used your words againist you.
I do. Say "men" or similar. Calling men/boys "males" is just as dehumanising as calling women/girls "females." Treat EVERYONE properly.
Imagine thinking someone's gender dehumanising them. It makes no sense. The idea "You're not as human as them because you're male" is an asburd one.
Absolutely not what I'm saying. My objection to it is specifically that referring to someone with "male"/"female" as a noun, in common contexts, can -- not will -- come off as dehumanising, particularly when some people tend to only use "male" or "female" for one gender and not the other.
> You're just wanting to be outraged.
I want people who both don't know that smth may make others uncomfortable and want to change in that case have the relevant information. If you don't want to change, then... good for you? That's not my problem. You do you, I guess?
> I want people who both don't know that smth may make others uncomfortable and want to change in that case have the relevant information. If you don't want to change, then... good for you? That's not my problem. You do you, I guess?
Right back at you. It makes other people uncomfortable when others go around saying a gender is dehumanising. Especialy, when in English it's the correct word. Female/male is refers to gender, woman/man refers to gender and age. It makes people very uncomfortable when you imply they were some how rude when they weren't.
But as I said, people who would be outraged would always be outraged. It's the new trend, to show they're thinking of other people while disregarding others.
Perhaps you've not noticed but some of those people are women. You going to start correcting women when they say they're off on a girls night out and tell them it's a womens night out? You going to start correct them when they say they have an all female executive board and tell them it's an all women executive board?
The reality is, when you say that the word female is offensive, which you are, you're making their gender offensive. And that is not respectful.
Basically, they do it because the terms are in some way dehumanizing.
I also find the terms dehumanizing, but specifically because I've noticed that it's most frequently a term used by incels, self-identified or otherwise. It's common on certain subreddits or on twitter to see users aligned in gamergate / manosphere circles using "females" when talking about women. And yes, these same people will say "men" when talking about men.
Not kids. Kids would be elementary students, for example.
The last few years aside, I've always had an issue with it. In my personal experience, people who tend to call women/girls "females" never, ever use the word "males" to describe men/boys in similar context. It's about using language consistently imo.
https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=female+lawyer%...
Now you can make the OK symbol again and it's OK. The outrage over it got replaced by a new outrage and the victims of outrage culture during that period are simply seen as an acceptable cost for keeping the outrage fire burning. No apologies. No admissions of guilt or harm. Just the monster leaving behind its path of righteous destruction.
Nah. It's always been a bit odd in certain contexts. And I'm pretty old and square.
What do you think of the word lady? Gentlemen doesn't seem to be the male equivalent anymore.
I treat both males and females with dehumanizing language, since I consider both to be equally worthless.
Edit reply: Yes obviously you were talking about yourself and I used that to draw a conclusion about you. Why would that indicate I didn’t think it through? Your response however really does appear to have not been thought through since you failed to consider that point. That’s consistent with your apparent trend of denigrating yourself in attempts to denigrate others. If I were you I’d check my priors, but I expect you’ll continue to do you.
Not sure if you're male or female, but you certainly didn't think your reply through.
Edit Reply:
> Yes obviously you were talking about yourself and I used that to draw a conclusion about you. Why would that indicate I didn’t think it through?
Your conclusion about a post where I spoke about myself is that it speaks about myself more than it speaks about others.
Not the sharpest tool in the shed, I see.
> Your response however really does appear to have not been thought through since you failed to consider that point. That’s consistent with your apparent trend of denigrating yourself in attempts to denigrate others. If I were you I’d check my priors, but I expect you’ll continue to do you.
Who exactly I attempted to denigrate?
So it's "weird" to me in the sense of "I wouldn't use it and most people around me wouldn't use it" but that's about it.
I don't think anything derogatory is meant by it. It seems to be used like "chicks"
Now that I think about it, you know where it is used a lot? In news reports/police reports. "A young male was injured.... a female was spotted leaving the scene..."
I assume that English speaking folks who don't notice this just got used to hearing 'female' and never paid much attention to the sensibilities around it.
Just to keep the blood pressure low here: I want to be clear there are two sides to this issue. I'm not the sort of "enlightened centrist" who says that lightly: more often than not, there are not two sides to an issue, but this is one of the rare cases where there are two sides to this.
I'm going to explain this as briefly as I can, but it's complicated, so it's not actually going to be brief.
First, let's understand that communication is a two-person (or two-group) activity involving both communicator and audience. Effective communication of complex and charged topics requires that the communicator understand their audience and use language that their audience can understand without being distracted. Likewise, effective communication of complex and charged topics requires that the audience make a good-faith effort to understand the communicator by taking into account the communicator's background/motivations, and try to suss out the communicator's intended meaning, possibly by asking clarifying questions.
One of the important observations in David Foster Wallace's Tense Present[1] is that language doesn't just communicate its direct meaning, it also communicates membership in a group. As Wallace says:
> [M]ost of us are fluent in more than one major English dialect and in a large number of subdialects and are probably at least passable in countless others. Which dialect you choose to use depends, of course, on whom you're addressing. [... T]he dialect you use depends mostly on what sort of Group your listener is part of and whether you wish to present yourself as a fellow member of that Group. [... U]sage-as-inclusion is about much more than class. Here's another thought experiment: A bunch of U.S. teenagers in clothes that look far too large for them are sitting together in the local mall's Food Court, and a 53-year-old man with a combover and clothes that fit comes over to them and says that he was scoping them and thinks they're totally rad and/or phat and is it cool if he just kicks it and does the hang here with them. The kids' reaction is going to be either scorn or embarrassment for the guy — most likely a mix of both. Q: Why? Or imagine that two hard-core urban black guys are standing there talking and I, who am resoundingly and in all ways white, come up and greet them with "Yo" and call them "Brothers" and ask "s'up, s'goin on," pronouncing on with that NYCish oo-o diphthong that Young Urban Black English deploys for a standard o. Either these guys are going to be offended or they are going to think I am simply out of my mind. No other reaction is remotely foreseeable. Q: Why?
> Why: A dialect of English is learned and used either because it's your native vernacular or because it's the dialect of a Group by which you wish (with some degree of plausibility) to be accepted.
I think what a lot of conversations about the word "females" versus "women" or "girls" get wrong is making universal statements about English as if it's a single coherent language. There are many dialects, such as biology English or medical English, where using "female" is absolutely appropriate and using "woman" or "girl" would be unequivocally wrong. Likewise, there are dialects, such as gender theory English, where "female" isn't dehumanizing if used properly: using "females" refers to people with XX chromosomes, while "women" refers to people who identify with a feminine gender (although usually one would say "female assigned at birth" or "FAB" rather than saying "females" by itself).
Audience is everything here. Using gender theory English to a biology audience drastically changes the meaning, placing you as an outsider to the group, and if your intention was to speak biology English, you'd have failed to communicate in that dialect. In fact, the above paragraph, which I, a cisgender man, wrote, is fine only because the audience is a mostly-male, slightly-socially-inept audience of Hacker News denizens. If my audience were a group of American women, that paragraph would be horribly offensive because it's someone who hasn't directly experienced the effects of this sort of language, explaining it to people who have directly experienced the effects of this sort of language. In other words, mansplaining.
The problem with saying "[I]t's normal thing to see young females taking a dog out for a walk[.]" is twofold:
1. It is perceived by some as dehumanizing women. Note that I didn't say "it's dehumanizing women", because that a) assumes the word has some sort of inherent meaning (it doesn't) and b) assumes a lot of intention coming from the communicator. But actually, whether it's dehumanizing isn't as important as the fact that it's perceived as such. Remember that communication is a two-person activity. Yes, that means that it's up to the audience to not assume the worst, and to assume you aren't intentionally dehumanizing women. But it also means that as the communicator, if you find out that your audience perceives the wording as dehumanizing, it's now up to you to change your language to communicate your actual intent more effectively. If you as a communicator find out that your audience perceives your wording as dehumanizing to women, and then insist on staying with your wording, that really starts to communicate that you don't care about communicating effectively, about your audience's perceptions, or about the fact that you might be misunderstood to be dehumanizing women. In the worst case, it communicates that you do, in fact, intend to dehumanize women, although I'm not willing to go that far in your case: I think it's much more likely that you're just feeling attacked and being defensive.
2. As noted before, language communicates membership in a group. In this case, we're clearly not demonstrating membership in medical, biology, or gender theory communities, and the remaining groups which use "female" aren't groups you probably want to associate yourself with. Unfortunately, the other groups which say "females" are generally groups like incels, neckbeards, self-described misogynists, self-described alpha/sigma males, etc. Likely, this is the underlying reason why "females" is viewed as dehumanizing women: these groups really do intend to dehumanize women, and by associating yourself with them, you're implying that you agree with some of their ideas. Again, I assume it isn't your intent to associate yourself with these groups, but effective communication of your identity would avoid associating yourself with these groups. It's up to you, as the communicator, to understand your audience and how they will perceive your use of words, and to choose the words that your audience will perceive as your intended meaning.
Just to highlight the complexity of this: there are also contextual problems with referring to adult women as "girls" as this might be perceived as infantilizing. But, in other contexts, referring to adult women as "women" is denigrating to their youthfulness/attractiveness (i.e. some women would often take offense to being called "that woman" rather than "that girl"). Louis C.K. was adept enough to riff on this phenomenon with his "Nobody wants to see 'women gone wild'" joke, but we all know what happened with Louis C.K. later... But this is partly why Global Citizen has a "Girls and Women" issue rather than a "Girls" or "Women" category (and certainly not a "Females" category)[2]. Either "Girls" or "Women" would not be inclusive of the entire group they're trying to help in the context of their audience's dialect.
[1] https://genius.com/David-foster-wallace-tense-present-democr...
If you or anyone else didn't know, consider a police report or a research paper in which the language is deliberately distant to avoid biasing the reader: "The two female victims were struck by the SUV, and the male suspect fled on foot", "we observed higher rates of CVD for males in the treatment group, but in females the effect size was not significant", and equally bloodless language. This may be dehumanising in some sense, but it's done in a benign way to help the reader be objective.
It's easy for a non-native speaker to make a mistake in informal language after reading formal material like the aforementioned, and it might not be great to call out minor breaches of etiquette in such a targeted and public way.
It seemed to be addressed in a respectful and understanding manner, what's wrong with helping someone (and apparently a bunch of bystanders) learn from their mistake?
Stating that you’ve got information that CLEARLY everyone else needs to be taught; that you’re just trying to be helpful; that nobody should feel pressured to conform “immediately”; all comes off as disingenuous at best and threatening at worst. Instead, try asking questions and engaging in conversation rather than lecturing.
As to the topic at hand: in what way is it dehumanizing to refer to a human as male or female? Being male or female is a fundamental part of being human, not something to be erased or ashamed of. I am a trans woman: a human male who identifies and lives socially as a woman. Should I hide the fact that I’m male? Why?
> No more.
Changing your habits based on a single event isn't particularly rational. If this were a comparative articles on SF crime-rates you might have a good point, but it isn't.
And I say this having had a shooting happen on the street outside my hotel room the last time I stayed in SF - one event isn't a pattern (though in fairness if you look at comparative firearm incidents between US & European cities you're a bit more likely to see obvious disparities).
You only have to be wrong about getting murdered once.
It's doesn't need to be "a single event" that happened to the parent.
Many individual observations, talks with residents, learning what they consider "normal" and "acceptable" baseline are also very possible to scare someone used in a safer city off for life.
Then there are also the actual stats.
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/san-francisco/crime#des...
But changing your habits while in a city in the top 2% for crime might be.
I would say it is quite prudent and rational, because you cannot be killed more than once
What was there before?
The sample size in the relevant comment was 1. If it's larger for you, great - that's more rational. No argument there.
London is the European (well, kind of) city that most people cite as being bad for knife crime. It's still rare enough that a stabbing will make the national news though.
For a basic comparison, in 2022 there were 710 murders in the UK. 282 were stabbings. In the US there were 26,031 murders (a little more than 20,000 using guns), which is 36 times more, while the US has a population that's only 5 times that of the UK.
But this is really true in general. I consider Boston a pretty safe city. But there are absolutely areas that I wouldn't be walking around late at night.
The somatic marker hypothesis (Bechara and Damasio, 2005; Damasio et al., 1991) highlights the importance of emotions in decision making. The hypothesis postulates that reasoned decision making is influenced by biasing signals (somatic markers) arising from changes in the body periphery.
First triggered as a reaction to experienced feedback (e.g., increased heart rate or visceral responses), the somatic reactions are assumed to be reactivated in similar decision situations.
It is argued that there are primary and secondary inductions of emotional responses.
The primary induction can be understood as innate or learned affective responses arising from a confrontation with pleasurable or aversive stimuli.
Secondary inducers comprise affective responses induced by the recall of past events or anticipation of future states.
No. Jesus Christ.
Violence exists. You can compare risk between places and activities. But decisions should be based on data, not headlines and hunches.
Also, walking around and taking care of yourself is just not in the realm of known data. You should consider the known data, sure, but don’t ignore your instincts on the ground. That is insane.
The question really is whether SF has more dodgy areas than average, and I guess the answer is yes. I've been a couple of times, and it was a long time ago, but some very central areas felt a bit too unsafe even during the day.
(This probably used to be somewhat true of the Javits in NYC but that whole area of the city has generally gentrified with the Hudson Yards project being the latest big change.)
I still think Oslo is incredibly safe, but shit happens anywhere
A homeless guy on a street full of druggies near Frankfurt hbh asked for a euro and I said no I can't help you. He walked directly to a spot nearby where he kept a knife, and brandishing the knife, he paced towards me. I put my back to the wall of a nearby building and watched as he approached. About 10 meters from me his friend intervened and talked him down. He walked away instead of assaulting me.
Saying that Europe is super safe compared to the US isn't really accurate or nuanced enough. I'd agree with homicides but most of those involve gangs fighting over turf and not random victims.
Looking at the data, you need to scroll past 9 US cities (all big cities) until you find the first European city (relatively small city you never have a reason to go to) in this crime ranking: https://www.numbeo.com/crime/rankings.jsp
Europe is definitely safer than the US.
Nation-wide statistics show that Europe is definitely much safer than the US. However I would rather compare metropolitan areas than cities.
Edit: Jesus, this happened right in Rincon Hill. This is SF's equivalent of Murray Hill. Yea shit needs to be fixed.
In city politics, a handful of major tech moguls have always been active. Ron Conway and Mark Benioff have both historically been massive players in SF politics and have been supporting more moderate Mayoral candidates for some time, but the SF Board of Supervisors tends to filled only with NIMBY activists and real estate owners (Dean Preston, Aaron Peskin, Hillary Ronen).
Now that someone who is Seacliff adjacent is dead, they'll finally do something. I used to live in a Tenderloin adjacent neighborhood and my street literally reverted to mob justice after the riots because it was filled with working class undocumented immigrants+asylum seekers who were targeted and Tenderloin PD's hiring basically collapsed (on that note - if you're trying to stick up someone, don't stick up someone who fought in the Yemen Civil War and the Afghan Civil War. A couple people learnt their lesson in that neighborhood from what I heard at the local mosque).
While those riots went on, the police were guarding Seacliff, Russian Hill, and PacHeights. And it's those same people who's kids end up in SF progressive politics and setting up organizations that push these kinds of policies.
Btw, if anyone downvotes me thinking I'm some GOP nut - I'm not. My politics lean moderate Dem and I have worked in the moderate Dem space for years. That said, the SF Dems are entirely out of touch. It's a level of machine politics that makes Chicago look competent (and they've had actual Supes get arrested for arms trafficking, but then again so did we in 2012).
OK. So let me see if I understand what you're saying here. Tech was always a force in SF politics, but it hasn't been powerful enough on its own because it was in conflict with middle class progressives. But now that people are getting stabbed to death in those middle class neighborhoods, the middle class progressives are going to take it seriously instead of butting heads with the tech moguls.
> I used to live in a Tenderloin adjacent neighborhood and my street literally reverted to mob justice after the riots because it was filled with working class undocumented immigrants+asylum seekers who were targeted and Tenderloin PD's hiring basically collapsed
Yikes.
> (on that note - if you're trying to stick up someone, don't stick up someone who fought in the Yemen Civil War and the Afghan Civil War. A couple people learnt their lesson in that neighborhood from what I heard at the local mosque).
Makes sense!
> Btw, if anyone downvotes me thinking I'm some GOP nut - I'm not. My politics lean moderate Dem and I have worked in the moderate Dem space for years. That said, the SF Dems are entirely out of touch. It's a level of machine politics that makes Chicago look competent (and they've had actual Supes get arrested for arms trafficking, but then again so did we in 2012).
Yeah, I think any single party system is going to end up pretty bad eventually. I definitely agree that there's room for moderate Dems to criticize SF politics. I lived in Seattle for almost a decade and the main political conflict seemed to be between moderate Dems and avowed Socialists.
It's not that it's weak. It's more so that most of the big political donors who are from a tech background in SF (eg. David Sacks) don't touch local politics. They'll only really fundraise and hobnob with State and Congressional level politicians and maybe the Mayor on occasion (eg. Sacks has hosted fundraisers for both Ro Khanna and DeSantis within a week of each other).
SF local politics is extremely complex and time consuming, and most of the large donors aren't natives and are insulated from a number of the issues surrounding the city. That's why SF native billionaires like Conway and Benioff have been the only prominent techies in the SF local politics space (Though Manny Yekutiel is increasingly prominent too, but his family is also extremely prominent in LA politics). What ends up happening is local SF elections get taken over by local old money/real estate families, NGOs, and unions (including the police union) because those are the only groups and people that actually know who's who in SF politics and are impacted at a personal level. This is unlike other major cities in the US like Dallas, NYC, Chicago, oe even San Jose where prominent national level business leaders also enter the fray.
Now that one of them has actually been impacted, stuff will change - especially since this happened in Rincon Hill.
> eg. Sacks has hosted fundraisers for both Ro Khanna and DeSantis within a week of each other
That's an interesting contrast. But if Sacks' Overton window is roughly the area between Khanna and RDS, even though that's a pretty wide spread on the national level, I have the feeling that puts him well to the right of SF, to the point that he might have trouble finding anyone to support in local politics. It certainly would work out that way in Seattle, at least.
> he might have trouble finding anyone to support in local politics
Money speaks.
Why else would Bernie Sander's protege and Donald Trump's former protege turned rival kiss the ring of the exact same billionare.
For example, all SF Progressive politicians de facto HAVE to stump at an (imo extremely overpriced) cafe called Manny's (they have OK hummus, but Oasis Grill across the street is way better and a fraction of the cost), owned by an ex-FB lobbyist and personal friend of Zuck named Manny Yekutiel. And SF city politicians are fine taking money from Marc Benioff even though Salesforce has massive contracts with ICE and the DoD. If the other local business tycoons who live in SF actually cared enough about SF, they'd be playing a role in the local politics as well.
But, as they don't due to time constraints, what ends up happening is Old Money Real Estate families in SF are able to have an oversized impact on electoral politics in the city.
I hear about Seattle politics (particularly policing) all the time, and its not something I live near or actively seek out.
Heck, outside of HN, which has kind of an obsessive focus on SF, I see that more than SF politics (HN seems to blend tech indusry focus which concnetrates on SF with the right-wing ideologic obsession with SF [0].)
[0] Not saying HN is universally, or predominantly, right-wing, just has a sizable enough vocal group that it enhances the focus that comes from HN’s industry focus.
It might be a regional bias.
For example, I've had friends living in NYC and Boston who are nowhere near politics chat to me about SF local politics, but similar conversations don't occur about Seattle or Charlotte or Cincinnati local politics at the national level. A lot of this is probably also age+class dependent - a lot of the major players in SF city politics are in their 30s-40s and went to the same handful of elite high schools and universities as VCs, IBs, and top SWEs.
> sizable enough vocal group that it enhances the focus that comes from HN’s industry focus
I feel a lot of that is due to the lack of diversity on HN. Like I've seen A LOT of racially biased conversations on this board (and that has turned off other people in my age demographic from perusing HN).
Bernie had a pretty big tent back in the day though. Like, if you look at the people who supported Bernie in 2016, there's the AOC wing that's basically far left and have almost zero overlap with Trump supporters, but there's also a Tulsi Gabbard/Joe Rogan wing whom RDS could probably win over pretty easily. And a big part of the overlap here is the appeal of new ideas and new personalities overthrowing the political establishment, which sort of fits the Silicon Valley "disruption" mindset.
Thanks for the detailed explanations! It's very interesting and informative.
The "AOC Wing" which you're talking about was the ex-Stripe founding engineer Saikat Chakrabarti's SuperPAC - the Justice Democrats. He was pushed out from the Hill after a very nasty fight with Lacy Clay, Ro, and Pelosi in 2019 that almost veered kinda racial. He's still doing some activism but he's mostly a has been now that his largest protege AOC made the wise career move to align closer with the mainstream CPC and Biden's campaign co-opted the Green New Deal
> Thanks for the detailed explanations! It's very interesting and informative.
No prob. I got bored spilling the dirt only with Politicos, and I feel like HN has a horrid understanding of how shit actually works on the Hill. It's way less conspiracies and more like normal office politics.
[0] - https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/17/sanders-khanna-pres...
[1] - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-centrist-challenge-possib...
[2] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-03/ro-khanna...
1% of the people that are okay with the way SF handles crime are calling all the shots. They hold the cudgel of public scorn that keeps the other 99% in line.
I work in SF but don't live there, but over the past few years (especially under Chesa Boudin, the previous District Attorney) they've moved towards "soft on crime" policies that may have contributed to what friends who live there are referring to as 'lawlessness'
Some policies that likely have contributed include:
Bail Reform: They've prohibited cash bail, meaning most offenders who are arrested have no incentive to stand trial or prevent fleeing. No idea what the effect has been here, and as I understand it, offenders deemed violent are asked to forego bail. Again, no information on whether that's a voluntary ask or an imposed demand, but the impression is that people are arrested and back on the streets the same day to potentially reoffend.
Decriminalized theft up to $950: It is now quasi-legal to walk into a store in San Francisco, steal up to $949 in merchandise, and walk right back out. Allegedly, police won't respond to such incidents, and there's no deterrent from doing so. This has led to gangs who take turns, each walking in and snagging almost a thousand dollars worth of merchandise, then pooling the goods and reselling them. Pharmacies seem to have been particularly affected.
This was walked back somewhat, as shoplifting is now considered a felony again, especially if done as part of a ring, but police are apparently still extremely unlikely to respond.
Reduced sentences: Due to budgetary concerns, California as a whole is now imprisoning offenders for less time, issuing shorter sentences and early release as much as possible so that they do not have to bear the cost of imprisonment.
They defunded the police: Or, at least they pretended to? They promised to redirect $120 million of police funding away from law enforcement to support other social initiatives, and I remember a remark at the time that this was to fund reparation initiatives that they seem to be aiming to implement, but I have no idea as to the sincerity of that. That said, in the years since this promise, police budgets are up from where they were, so they seem to have either reversed course or possibly never gave it more than lip service. I'm not sure.
All together, if those are to be believed as causes (rather than say, wealth inequality, general social unrest, etc.) then it's worth looking into. Crime is up 110% in San Francisco relative to the American average, and is up 91% relative to the average in California.
Two additional notes: I'm just relaying what I think might have been OP's causes for attributing this to government action. I have no idea. I don't live there. Also, it seems that residents aren't particularly happy with it, as there was a (failed) attempt to recall Gavin Newsom, and a (successful) attempt to recall Chesa Boudin, and there are efforts underway to recall Mayor London Breed as well. No idea how that will fare.
Edit: It's probably worth remembering that someone can be stabbed anywhere, and if the fact that this happened in San Francisco confirms a bias you had, it's probably worth reframing it as somewhere else. Confirmation bias is our common enemy, and one that we don't have to succumb to just because our brains insist on it. Ask yourself if your tirade applies if you replace "San Francisco" with Zurich, Tokyo, Toronto, or Frisco Texas.
$950 is a completely reasonable threshold for felony theft. Before this state-wide, not city-specific, reform was introduced California had the lowest threshold in the nation. It is still fairly low. In Texas, the threshold for what you inaccurately call "quasi-legal" is $2500.
Shorter sentences is a solid reform because longer sentences are not associated with better outcomes and it costs $100k/yr to keep someone in prison, and that's money that could be spent on community policing instead.
I believe the difference is that district attorneys in Texas will actually prosecute misdemeanor theft, while this isn't true in the Bay Area.
All your dashboard says to me is that the DA presses charges in the majority of misdemeanor petty theft arrests, and the trend in the absolute decline of such cases is driven by the lack of arrests, which declined more than half from 2011 to 2022, which is consistent with my point that it doesn't have anything to do with the DA, it is caused by poor police productivity.
Not that it matters, but these were the collected thoughts of my resident friends and colleagues who live there, none of which you could remotely consider anywhere close to "right wing."
Zero percent of that allegation is true.
I'm not sure what can be done to fix the more systemic issues in SF; I'm assuming this will continue until we magically get a republican mayor and once that mayor fails to realize they can't ship the homeless westward, nor melt them into biofuel we can start to take a look at some of the policies that has absolutely gutted the ability for anyone to afford to live in SF and a couple well off people living in houses and the mentally incapacitated living in the street.
Cash bail isn't "tough on crime" policy — it's a "keep penniless people in jail" policy, since non-violent crimes like petty larceny are more likely to be committed by poor people.
But they generally do have shorter sentences for the same crimes than the US.
I don't know the prevalence of back-to-back life sentences in Germany (or in America, really) but we have some oddities like the Green River Killer, who got a life sentence for every murder he pled guilty to committing, so he's serving 48 life sentences consecutively.
I am as impressed with France's low percentage of life (indefinite) sentences as I am shocked that California's 160+% life detention rate despite having almost half the population.
I don't think long sentences work as a deterrent if there's just a low expectation of the chaps in uniforms even putting in any work.
There are far more dangerous cities than SF, which isn’t even in the top 20 in terms of crime. SF does have problems but there’s been a kind of relentless right wing attack on SF and CA in general that simply is not objective and it’s a rea irony because many of the red states have the highest murder rates.
We’ve got a serious problem in this country in many areas but it’s never going to be fixed by getting hysterical over crime.
This was an awful awful awful tragedy, but statistically, all of the people talking about how bad things have gotten apparently didn’t live through the 80s and 90s. We literally had vigilante groups like the Guardian Angels in the 80s because crime was so high. I’d like it if SF takes action to reduce crime of course but I’m skeptics of simplistic claims without knowing the core reasons crime dropped dramatically from 1980-2000.
[people voting it down but providing no rebuttal that the “gotten bad” claims are subjective and don’t map to actual violent crime stats. What has objectively gotten worse is property crime. If someone can provide stats that show violent crime has objectively gotten worse over the last decade or two, I’d be curious]
Compare to other societies now.
There’s supposed to be progress, and in other places, there has been.
People are desperate. Tbh the whole US system is so messed up, it's generations upon generations of PTSD among the working masses. I hate to get into these discussions but it makes my blood boil to see how people are left stranded with no safety net and just more and more money gouging corporations around them.
This could have been premeditated or a random attack. No one knows yet.
I never directly blamed the citizens, but they are the ones who live there, work there, and elect the government, so at least indirectly, they are to blame. It's a wealthy city - there's no reason (beyond apathy or greed) that the government can't implement policies that make the city a better place.
I don't understand why this lie keeps getting repeated. The US has a very generous social safety net, even compared to wealthy western-European countries. Most especially San Francisco, which has rent assistance, free healthcare, stipends, and countless other things.
At the same time as New York's crime was falling, the same thing was happening everywhere -- San Diego and Austin and San Jose had basically identical trajectories as NYC under Giuliani, but obviously did not have Giuliani (tho perhaps they had also brought in their own?
Just Googling now, and it seems San Diego brought in Susan Golding (R) in 1992 to replace Maureen O'Connor (D), and they didn't flip back until 2005.
Austin had Bruce Todd (which one article refers to as an "establishment Democrat") from 91-97, and Kirk Watson (D) from 97-01.
San Jose has had consecutively Democratic mayors from 1971 to now.
TLDR, I don't think party alignment is as indicative as we might hope it would be, however much policy preferences might tend to overlap with party. Perhaps that was different way back in the 90s, when polarization wasn't as high, and/or party marching orders weren't quite as unified nationally as they seem to be now -- or I'm just missing something obvious elsewhere
For example, prior to going national, Kamala Harris was a relatively tough-on-crime prosecutor despite being a Democrat.
Citizens in SF can elect local reps who will fund things shown to help reduce crime (mental health care, cheaper housing, etc). Or whatever else.
Local to me, it's pretty much all Democrats as well. Within the party, I can pick candidates who want to build condos over both local golf courses. Or, I can pick candidates who want to keep that open green space. Granted, I have to vote in the primary here, as the general is almost guaranteed to go to a D.
There are no GOP members in City government, and haven't been for a long, long time. This is the result of progressive policies. Accept that or this will continue.
https://sfbgarchive.48hills.org/sfbgarchive/2014/08/05/last-...
Hey now, I was addressing this part of the comment "In a democracy, you are the government"
I am speaking as someone who lives in a red state where our abortion laws have been rolled back and have seen the impact of the gerrymandering first hand. This is the result of conservative policies and will likely have a negative effect on our state; whether by an exodus of those who don't see the point in staying or by increasing poverty for forced birth for those who can't afford to skirt the laws
>This is the result of progressive policies. Accept that or this will continue.
I don't live in SF so I can't speak with any authority to how much worse it has become. I can say that my city's murder rate is almost 50% higher than SF while being much smaller. From what I've read, SF is at least trying something in terms of harm reduction instead of just outright criminalizing or ignoring, which is what we're do and isn't working.
I don't have the answers and it seems to be a difficult task to come up with plans without violating a person's autonomy.
No one forced you to interact with me and I think we're both worse off that you chose to do so.
It's a commonly promoted trope to blame all of SF's problems on wealth inequality and the housing market. But it could be an oversimplification that hand-waves a difficult discussion, which only ends up exacerbating the problem.
Can you articulate how housing policy leads to drug addiction, open air drug markets, high rates of property crime, and general non-enforcement of criminality?
To address your question, it's incredibly difficult to cope with mental illness or overcome addiction while homeless. It's also difficult to hold down a job. Drug use and joblessness lead to property crime and open air drug markets.
Well, people could become homeless outside of San Francisco (possibly after becoming addicted to drugs), and then migrate to San Francisco. Even in the hypothetical scenario where houses cost nothing but are unavailable in San Francisco, it would seem misleading to blame that SF housing shortage for the homelessness of someone who migrated there after becoming homeless.
Is there data available for how many people currently homeless in San Francisco became homeless in San Francisco? That is, where did they last rent property? I'm not being snarky; I'm curious what the percentages are like. My guess is that a significant majority of homeless people in San Francisco were previously renting in another location, then got evicted, and then eventually moved to SF.
> it's incredibly difficult to cope with mental illness or overcome addiction while homeless. It's also difficult to hold down a job.
Yes, that's true, once you're homeless. My question is about how the housing shortage in San Francisco causes homelessness. That is, how does housing policy in a jurisdiction lead to people becoming homeless after they were previously living in a property within that jurisdiction?
Also, consider what might make a city an appealing destination for someone who becomes homeless while addicted to drugs. If your heroin addiction gets you kicked out of your apartment in Reno, and you're looking to score some smack, why not catch a $15 Greyhound to San Francisco? It's an easy place to buy drugs, and it's a city well known for its citizens and authorities tolerating people openly using drugs and sleeping on the street. And when you run out of money, you can smash a few car windows until you find some cash, then walk a few blocks to exchange it for drugs from your nearest heroin dealer.
Or just let the inevitable earthquake take care of it.
Housing is certainly an ingredient in the soup. So is inequality. And corruption. A culture that is anti-family, consumerist, pro-drug, individualist.
What else? There's so many factors. A lack of cohesive identity. The American attitude of narcissism and the fuck-you mentality. A lack of willingness to call out ghetto behavior as bad. Neutered teachers and schools preaching that all things are equally good and gradually lowering standards. Entire generations of families that basically feed into gangs. A lack of government ability/will to break up gangs. Incessant, unmitigated advertising. Government controlled media serving white-washed bullshit. Liberalism gone off the rails, generally.
It's a mess.
Housing policy decreases supply which increases costs beyond the means of low-wage workers.
1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homelessness_in_the_San_Fran....
Some other interesting points I noticed:
> Nearly half (48%) of youth survey respondents reported living in San Francisco when they most recently became homeless. Thirty-nine percent (39%) reported living in another county in California and 14% reported living out of state.
So 53% of youth respondents became homeless outside of San Francisco, compared to only 30% of overall respondents. This skew possibly indicates a trend of younger people becoming homeless outside of San Francisco and moving there. That also implies the number of homeless people in San Francisco will continue to increase.
> Previous living arrangements: 30% Home Owned or Rented by Self or Partner, 33% With Friends or Family.
This implies there's a gradual transition to homelessness. Maybe there's a chance for early intervention when someone starts living with friends or family.
> Primary Cause of Homelessness (Self-reported): 25% Lost Job, 18% Alcohol or Drug Use, 13% Eviction
Unfortunately it's hard to separate these causes, since e.g. alcohol or drug use can lead to lost job. But again, 18% citing drug use is lower than I would have expected. I wonder how many non-addicts become addicts while homeless.
[0] https://hsh.sfgov.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/2019HIRDRep...
Maybe if you're a moneyed donor.
I am genuinely curious to know how SF residents feel about this.
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/mill-valley-man-kille...
Now since large number of families moved out from SF, and there are more no big local gangs (since there are no families) you have about 40% more random homicides. And these random ones are the worse and the most scary ones.
They're also talking about people who engage in business that is not state sanctioned and therefore have to settle disputes with their own violence instead of getting a court to threaten state violence on their behalf. One part time drug dealer rounding up a couple buddies and putting a bullet in a guy who ripped him off will show up as and makes up a huge chunk of what's considered "gang violence" in these stats.
When comparing cities it's useful to differentiate between random crime and crime where the parties to know each other.
And also if we're willing to accept this pretty high bar...
For comparison the UK, not exactly the safest country in Europe, had 12x the homicides for 80x the population, which puts SF at 6 times more homicides per population.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/crime-homicides-...
https://sfist.com/2023/01/03/sf-sees-exact-same-number-of-ho...
Because that’s the difference between 2019s all time low year at this point… and so far in 2023.
Oh and ‘21 & ‘22 by now? Difference of 2.
Absolute numbers don’t sound as scary as percentages tho do they? Might ruin your narrative.
2019 = 41
2020 = 48
2021 = 56
2022 = 56
If you can't discuss the facts in a civil manner I am not going to discuss the issue with you any further.
SF average homicide rate: 7.1/100k [1]
Rome average homicide rate: 0.5/100k [2]
[1] https://abc7news.com/feature/san-francisco-bay-area-safety-t...
[2] (in Italian) https://www.agi.it/fact-checking/omicidio_sacchi_sicurezza_r...
Based on the subreddit, which is usually a trash fire, it's what you'd expect I guess? Everyone thinks murder is bad, so we start at that baseline, and from there it's a couple classes of people arguing with eachother: those that are happy to consider san francisco "a shithole" or whatever hot reactionary word of the day the rest of the country is using to label SF as enemy #1 of traditional american values and are essentially exuberant to have a new single point of data to sling around, and those that are overcorrecting against this and diminishing the real problems in SF in an attempt to whitewash while to be fair making things seem more true to reality, that is to say, portray SF as, statistically speaking, relatively safe and boring for a US metropolitan area.
As a former SF resident I think it's really sad that someone got murdered and I'm really angry about it. I'm mad at whoever did it, what a scumbag. I'm hopeful that there will be justice. I'm also afraid that this might give ammunition to reactionaries that want to overfund or overarm the SFPD, and that this will lend further political strength to politicians like bloodthirsty DAs that get their rocks off to throwing young POC in prison for minor drug offenses.
Cynically, part of me knows that finally some of the issues SF has been facing and the various leaders have been ignoring or handling poorly will probably be handled properly now that a rich person has been murdered. Well, no, cynical me again, probably this just means the cops will be cut loose a bit more and ineffective, punitive policies will be enacted / enforced / tightened.
In any case, even the most pro-incarceration DA electable in San Francisco would be a reform candidate in almost every jurisdiction of the country.
Funny, I have never seen the “first concern” being how it will affect criminals.
What I have seen, instead, is a weird fetish by most Americans, but most importantly, politicians, to increase punishment for criminals and expand police powers and protections, despite tons of evidence this doesn’t work and the US already having more punishment and more police powers than peer countries with far lower crime.
Some people respond by suggesting that we should try changes that actually help reduce crime and homicides as opposed to those that just help satisfy a knee jerk animalistic desire for punishment.
Punishment works better than whatever we are doing now.
There is a huge difference between being a keyboard warrior and being terrified to walk outside at night.
I don't want to live in a world where walking down the street of a neighborhood one looks too low class for invites a police response because of someone else's poor risk assessment.
My first concern is how it will affect people the police historically over-target. That means black people and LGBT people. I'm re-reading my comment and I think I alluded to that, so I'm a little concerned that you said "how it will affect criminals".
> the police and the DA office have essentially legalized many forms of crime by refusing to prosecute people
This is a broad oversimplification of the situation in SF. I keep hearing this myth from people that don't live in SF that the police have been, like, abolished or something, but in reality no politician comes anywhere close to touching police abolitionist rhetoric.
In reality the cops absolutely hated the last DA and it seems they started sucking at their jobs on purpose as a result. The new DA they seem to like a lot more. Regardless, blame always seems to deflect off the cops and onto the nearest politician when it comes to basically anything in SF.
Replies to you are discussing how "crime is legal" in SF and I really have no idea what this could mean. It sounds like fox news gobblygook to me.
What's worse, some people feeling unsafe around police, or everyone feeling unsafe around everyone?
It's not just a false dichotomy, it's illogical. If a given set of people doesn't feel safe around the police, they don't feel safe in society. They are us, unless you're willing to dehumanize them, so therefore a world where we don't feel safe around the police is actually your second case, where we don't feel safe at all.
I click through this thread desperate for a conservative position that isn't teetering on a stack of rhetorical fallacies or cognitive biases. Are you able to provide one?
Last time I was in SF, people were shocked that I felt less comfortable than I do in Detroit. Detroit doesn't tolerate half the shit SF does - no encampments, no wandering screamers, etc. Yes, violent and organized crime is much higher - but when you're QOL is lower than the symbol of urban decline........
Huh?
The homeless squat in abandoned houses and when it’s warm they absolutely do have tents.
Wandering screamers? Really, they don’t because that wasn’t my experience either.
Maybe Detroit is just much smaller, has different weather and has fewer homeless?
I only ever read that it's "because of the policies" and there are lots of rather disturbing videos about SF making its rounds on YouTube.
But what exactly happened? Did they just remove all the police? Did they gave out free drugs to everybody?
I'm not interested in blaming political parties, I just want to get a quick grasp of what exactly has happened.
TLDR: there are far fewer consequences for crime now in large cities like SF, NY, LA. The results are as expected.
Due to the absolute dominance of voters with this mentality, and the practice of electing prosecutorial positions that in other parts of the world would be professional appointees, they have repeatedly ended up with prosecutors that ran on a campaign of refusing to prosecute. This isn't specific to SF, it can also be seen in LA and New York. In fact one of the criticisms levelled at the Trump inditement is that the prosecutor in question campaigned specifically on prosecuting Trump (for whatever) and has now upgraded what would normally be a misdemeanor, whilst simultaneously downgrading many other types of crime.
In other words: politics, ideology, the usual suspects.
“While the violent crime rate has fluctuated year-over-year, it has remained relatively stable this past decade—between 428 and 466, hovering near its 2010 level (440), when California embarked on major criminal justice reforms.”
“While violent and property crime rates increased in 2021, both remain relatively low”
https://www.ppic.org/publication/crime-trends-in-california/
Even East PA was the hood. Oakland was famous for riots
SF governance has always been terrible. Real estate has gotten so expensive that startups anxious to conserve runway are pushing deeper into bad neighborhoods that were once unthinkable
If the cost of office space were a concern, it'd be difficult to explain why they're anywhere near the Bay Area at all.
The nice thing about Bay Area is that everyone is on the "same page" (call it an echo chamber maybe)
You can go into any meeting and mention some technical thing like LangChain and everyone knows what u are talking about. No need to waste 15 minutes getting ppl up 2 speed. Outside the Bay Area, Europe etc. you'd mostly get blank stares, even in an accelerator or hub
The Facebook / Sun campus is there because it was cheap land
> San Franciscans face about a 1-in-16 chance each year of being a victim of property or violent crime, which makes the city more dangerous than 98 percent of US cities, both small and large.
https://www.hoover.org/research/why-san-francisco-nearly-mos...
People who want to sort major US cities by homicide, assault, or other crimes can look here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...
But, its non-violent crime and property crime numbers are through the roof which makes it feel incredibly unsafe.
Miami, on the other hand, actually has a higher homicide rate than SF but because the streets are clean and property crime is much much lower it feels far safer than SF. Also, to be honest, for people reading hacker news, homicides are an incredibly rare black swan event, unlike property crime which you experience almost daily in SF. So, it makes sense for this crowd to have a place higher utility on low property crime than on low homicides. And I'm not judging, I moved to Miami and couldn't be happier with that decision.
The murders that happen in my part of town are usually drug-related, like an OD or, in the case of my neighbor, a drunk and jealous girlfriend with access to a firearm.
Parts of Miami are definitely cleaner, and some parts of Miami are pretty bad too, if not worse (parts of Wynwood, particularly south of the Wynwood Arcade used to be filled with homeless tents; and that's to say nothing of Liberty City, Little Haiti, etc.. ). However, Miami looks nicer but in many aspects there's some real trash beyond the facade. My building is under 5 years old, in a great (and growing) part of town, yet has had multiple murders in it. I used to live at Icon Bay, which had a literal drug lord living in one of the penthouses until there was a large-scale raid that forced him out. The FBI literally has a unit in my complex because they are here all the time - drug rings, prostitution rings, kidnapping, etc... are all happening right under your nose, but since the perps drive a Benz and walk around in a $250 pair of sneakers, it's less in-your-face (and more socially accepted) than some homeless dude in the Tenderloin shooting up heroin and taking a shit on the sidewalk. One guy in my elevator line was moving weed by the pound on a regular basis like it was nothing, and I had no idea until the property manager pointed out that they had recently been arrested on felony drug charges. Another in my building wears an ankle monitor yet owns a fleet of exotic cars. It's so much harder to tell here than anywhere else I've lived....until you know what to look for.
And that's to say nothing of the outrageous amount of scams here, particularly medicare/medicaid fraud. I'd take the homeless guy who shits on the sidewalk any day over the guy who stole millions from medicare and drives around in a Ferrari.
At least in SF/Bay Area, you can tell who the trashy folks are, and who the mentally ill people are. In Florida, they are allowed to scam the government, drive around in flashy cars, and better yet - they can buy guns and carry them around, loaded, without a permit.
But, personally, I'd rather have the medicare-fraud-guy than the shits-on-the-street guy in my neighborhood. The former hurts me a little no matter where they live, the latter hurts me a lot but only if they are nearby.
Just in 2014, the national average was 4.5 per 100,000.
And these numbers are several times that of large European cities.
Still, this is not as bad as Oakland, with a homicide rate several times that.
[1] https://abc7news.com/feature/san-francisco-bay-area-safety-t...
[2] https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-...
There were 10 more in 2022 than in 2014[0], which was the low point for homicide rates nationally[1]. The absolute number is fairly flat and per-capita rates are well down on 2000s levels[2].
[0] https://sfgov.org/scorecards/public-safety/violent-crime-rat...
[1] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/murd...
[2] https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-San-Francisco-Californ...
That is in of itself not alarming. An average city would have an average homicide rate: That's what averages are. It's only alarming if the city has (a) one of the lowest homicide rates nationally, or (b) one of the highest homicide rates nationally. Being average just means that it's the middle of the pack.
- If it's genuine: There's nothing to worry about. Extreme paranoia about (a) is in this case a false positive.
- If it's fraudulent: They're moving the sources of homicide out of their jurisdiction and onto somewhere else. Or they're increasing enforcement, in which case there may be increased false positives as a consequence.
I remember in the 90's that oakland and east palo alto were basically murder capitals, and SF wasn't too far off.
To be fair though, I've lived in areas that were next door to top 5 murder/capita rates throughout the 90s-00s and they were all heavy drug and gang areas you knew to avoid. Most of those have also been cleaned up as property values have sky rocketed triggering development.
People are slowly realizing that it was a mistake, but its gonna take some time to fix the situation.
In startup world, you tolerate the crime to get cheap office space
Salesforce went downtown for the cheap rent. Otherwise it was always foggy chilly and a commute mess. Amazon's original offices in Seattle were near some really spooky stuff too. In startup grind you do what you do
Ok, but apparently it was shit even before that, so this can't be full answer.
Compare San Francisco to somewhere like Singapore, and ask yourself where would you rather live - and if the freedoms available in SF are worth the trade offs. BTW I'm not taking a stance here as I live in neither location.
Thankfully, the US and California are still Democracies for the moment.
Anyone who tries to hold up Singapore as a beacon of "good governance" simply isn't working in reality ...
(In the 70s they also once bombed the mayor's house when they didn't like him.)
"Oh look, Ricky is stealing again, should we bother arresting his aggressive angry ass again for the 7th time this year? Nah."
An la times article said: “ San Francisco police officers Kevin Lyons and Kevin Sien have been temporarily suspended after they were arrested last year in connection with the destruction of evidence. They’re accused of destroying credit cards, identification records and suspected methamphetamine discovered in the luggage of a person staying in a hotel.
Lyons and Sien allegedly told staff that cataloging the evidence would take too long and instead disposed of the credit cards and IDs in a shred bin and flushed the drugs down a hotel toilet, according to state court criminal complaints.”
It’s a story mentioned here https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-04-03/twenty-p...
Edit: found the tweet: https://twitter.com/SFPDTenderloin/status/133728051660988416...
Do you have evidence for the claim that cops in SF stopped working because they didn't like the DA?
In civilized society, you make a pact with the state. They have a 'monopoly on violence' and in exchange, you and your property are protected. That pact seems to be broken in SF, and to a lesser extent in CA at large. People should do what they need to in order to keep themselves safe. If that means a gun? So be it.
One can fire non-lethal rounds, and aim around a person (or into the ground), instead of at them. I'm not a believer in urban gun ownership. But there are ways to responsibly be one and benefit from it without putting others' lives or your own freedom at risk. (Counterfactual: pulling a gun on a criminal is a good way to have a criminal pull a gun on you.)
i pray i never need it but i'm glad to live in a place that's not without its problems, but where i can at least defend myself and my property.
also @JumpCriscross since his comment is dead: that's silly, you shouldn't make a threat you aren't willing to follow up on. more importantly "warning shots" are a really good way to cause collateral damage. might be you shoot through a wall. plus your eye is on the threat so it's irresponsible to shoot elsewhere bc you aren't actually evaluating what's there and what's behind it.
It's dumb to jail homeless and mentally ill people, but it's just as dumb to just stop jailing them without providing them the help they need.
The most liberal cities in the world don't have big homeless and crime problems because help and housing is provided.
I don't know, I'm not the judge of that, but it sounds a bit like a very mobile goal post. Usually, "liberal policies" are removing or weakening penalties and enforcement. A liberal drug policy will decriminalize drug use. liberal = tolerant, so liberal policies tolerate a lot more things.
And SF is in many regards more liberal than European cities. Whether it's your preferred kind of liberal politics, or whether it's combined with other effective policies etc, is a different question.
To me that looks like a society that has completely abdicated its responsibility of using legal force to protect the rights and safety of its inhabitants, rather than just an honest disagreement on what variation in values and lifestyles that are accepted.
> To me that looks like a society that has completely abdicated its responsibility of using legal force to protect the rights and safety of its inhabitants, rather than just an honest disagreement on what variation in values and lifestyles that are accepted.
It does to me, too, that's one of the reasons I moved to the suburbs, and it wasn't anywhere as bad as in SF and other US cities. But I felt that the priorities were backwards and I understood that the majority of people wanted them pushed further in the direction I considered wrong. So I moved, because why stay and suffer if you don't believe in those policies but most of your neighbors do?
In a sense it’s closer to the original Christian ideal than most, but I don’t see how that can lead to peace, joy and prosperity long-term in a society where a minority abuses it.
Are they? In the US "liberal policies" are also associated with higher taxation and government regulation. So which is it?
Statements like this seem to be exactly why people are frustrated with SF's policies. What is the "help they need" that will be sufficient to keep them from being a problem? I've known addicts and schizophrenics, and it's near impossible to fix them, even with an affluent and caring family to support them the whole way. What will an incompetent state actor possibly do that is better, other than just lock them up to keep them from harming others?
> Since I moved [to SF], I have seen people break into cars (numerous times), fill suitcases with products from Target and Walgreens and leave without paying, casually smoke meth in a crowded bus, empty their bladder and bowels in the middle of the sidewalk, etc. all of this brazenly and in broad daylight.
I'm not aware of any major European city where this kind of behaviour is tolerated, much less common.
As for smaller cities in Europe like London or Berlin, they're also still reasonably safe (I didn't like night buses in London but that's about it) and the crazy stuff is mostly contained.
I guess a huge part of this is that most countries over here at least have something resembling a working social system.
Liberalism in the US heavily resists the usage of asylums and actually helping people in general. In Europe that's not really the case.
The cities you mention have a different culture. It's ingrained into you as a kid. It's "less liberal" in the sense that the wider society doesn't accept these values. The media, your family and friends and other parts of the environment are a lot more effective than the law.
On the other hand, I also know that in general in any of those countries, the consequences for something like shoplifting are a lot stronger than they would be in most western countries.
As an island nation, Taiwan also has a somewhat easier time preventing narcotics smuggling. Whereas the mainland Chinese Communist Party has covertly targeted the USA for "Opium War 2" by tacitly allowing the smuggling of fentanyl precursor chemicals to Mexican drug cartels.
Singapore
But hasn't the hue and cry been "defund the police"? We heard it as far back as the mostly peaceful protests that ravaged major US cities across the US in 2020-21. And it's been the chant of mostly left-leaning politicians and organizations.
2. "Defund the Police" usually means diverting money away from reactive policies (policing) to proactive policies (community initiatives that prevent people from falling into abject poverty to begin with). You can claim that "defund the police" is bad optics, but honestly the US is such a far gone police state that "liberals" could have picked any rallying cry and it would have been weaponized.
3. The reason you see police forces doing less even though they have more funding is because they are using the narrative that they were "defunded" (recall this never happened) as a bargaining chip for police unions to negotiate with lawmakers for less oversight and more funding.
4. There is no correlation between police funding and crime rates. Police only show up AFTER a crime has been committed, and anyone who has dealt with police firsthand knows how much they love to drag their feet:
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/how-we-rise/2022/03/31/preven....
5. This one might be a bit philosophical but when you have a police force you aren't reducing violence, you're just shifting the violence that is done to the state. While the crazy homeless people and crack addicts might be "out of sight out of mind", you can guarantee they are getting stabbed and beaten up in prison, or shot in the street by the cops.
If your goal is to simply remove "undesirables" from the view of the public then police are a great tool, but if our conception of justice is that crude then we might as well return to the code of Hammurabi.
If the goal is to reduce violence and crime overall, then police are not the best tool for the job. Preventative measures must be taken to keep people from getting to the mental state that causes them to commit crimes.
This link [2] says police headcount is down 25% from 2017.
https://californiaglobe.com/articles/new-report-sfpd-short-8...
https://missionlocal.org/2023/03/police-staffing-crisis-san-...
Police budget was lowered in 2020, that's from a decrease in tax revenue though, not ideological.
https://www.sfexaminer.com/archives/breed-orders-departments...
It was also increased back to normal levels in 2022.
Well, quite frankly, they deserve that outcome a lot more than guys like Bob Lee. I don’t understand how one could care so much about protecting dangerous, crazy homeless people from harm. It’s like worrying about making sure Osama bin Laden doesn’t get hit by any hijacked planes
This is some Hammurabi thinking. It's not about protecting "Osama Bin Laden" (although justice should be blind and not paywalled), it's about ensuring that our system produces fewer Osama Bin Ladens.
To steelman your point, let's say that police are 100% necessary in society and the more police the better. In this universe the police never cause collateral damage and are always 100% in the right.
In this world, even if you lock up every "Osama Bin Laden" you are still putting the police officers in harm's way. They are using their bodies to ensure that the Bob Lee's of the world can keep on innovating.
To prevent harm to officers, we should figure out how to reduce the number of encounters they have, which means reducing the number of criminals through other means. If society is a machine that produces Osama Bin Laden's as a byproduct, isn't it in everyone's best interest to reduce the rate at which we produce Osama Bin Laden's? Especially the police who put themselves in harms way?
If there was a way to solve these issues while also being really nice and compassionate then I’d be all for it, but if you’re getting bullied sometimes the best thing to do is to just sock the bully in the mouth.
>I don’t understand how one could care so much about protecting dangerous, crazy homeless people from harm. It’s like worrying about making sure Osama bin Laden doesn’t get hit by any hijacked planes.
Controversial take incoming, brace yourself. Bin Laden was the son of a construction magnate who was radicalized in a war where he fought for the US by proxy, only to be abandoned (except where Western meddling was advantageous for Western interests) when it was over. His picture is the illustration for the proverb, "The child who is not embraced by the village will burn it down to feel its warmth."
Bob Lee sounds like a great guy. He is among a class who benefited enormously from federal and state policy that subsidized suburban communities at the expense of cities, arguably in a way that shifted, rather than eliminated, the social ills that are endemic to most human societies above a certain population threshold. The policies that gave Bob Lee et al. their advantageous start created the dangerous, crazy people, when different policies might have diluted the circumstances which shaped them to the point where they might have been treatable, without necessarily cramping Mr. Lee's style.
There but for the grace of housing/economic policy advantageous to my intersectional identity go I.
(Note that we've ended up with the worst of both worlds.)
See my point #5 in the parent comment:
> This one might be a bit philosophical but when you have a police force you aren't reducing violence, you're just shifting the violence that is done to the state.
When you give the police overwhelming power to punish dangerous people, you have created a new class of very dangerous people. In my theoretical universe where cops are infallible this is not a problem, in the real world if you give an institution that much power what do you think would happen when they "solve crime". Would they willingly relinquish that power? Or would they aim to extend their influence onto larger swaths of the population with more draconian laws?
> If there was a way to solve these issues while also being really nice and compassionate then I’d be all for it, but if you’re getting bullied sometimes the best thing to do is to just sock the bully in the mouth.
I think you're missing the point. I am not saying there should be zero accountability for criminals and zero police. I am saying we should also attack the root causes of criminality instead of just using punitive measures. Right now we are treating the symptom and not the cause.
Conversely, increase the number of officers. This will cause the incidence per officer to fall.
There are places in the world that have done this. For example [0], where the populous has been deputized in order to quell violent crime.
[0] https://www.breitbart.com/latin-america/2023/04/03/ecuadors-...
The West Coast cities, LA, SF, Portland, and Seattle are much more liberal than most "blue" cities.
Regardless, I live in SF, and love it here, for way more reasons than the tech scene (it's actually a coincidence I live here as far as my job goes). I really hope we can improve this situation, regardless of the relative scale compared to other cities. It seems like part of a national problem.
Your impressions are, bluntly, wrong.
LA and San Francisco have the 32nd and 37th highest violent crime rates out of the top 100 largest cities in the US, and the 72nd and 7th in overall crime rates. Homelessness, driven by lack of development combined with the the attraction and generation of concentrated wealth is a real California statewide problem (though there are plenty of non-California cities with serious problems, NYC is nearly as bad as LA, and far worse than San Francisco, in terms of population share that is homeless.)
SF is 4th highest in the United States for larceny rates. Note that larceny is the most frequent type of property crime per the FBI.
I think initially it started as "being poor is not a crime" with the good thought that you can't arrest people for not having a house. I think this escalated toward a lax attitude toward drugs and many "petty" crimes (e.g. public urination, stealing a case of beer).
The interesting thing was that when I lived there sometimes I'd ask or joke about it (bicycle theft was a huge problem, car windows being smashed, etc). People would mostly pretend they didn't see it and have no idea what to say to my joke for fear that somebody around them had a very strong opinion and they would offend.
Also, I remember once my improv class was chatting outside the theater and a homeless man asked for a cigarette and then started berating my classmates when they ignored him, and they actually felt bad. I know their sympathy came from a good place. Many of these people are damaged mentally and jail will only get them out of your face. But in my opinion something more proactive needed to be done.
I don't even think it needs to be traditional jail. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if some of these people would be happier/healthier working outside in the sun getting some exercise instead of being in a cell. I think that's not boolean enough for most people though.
Jail alternatives are more expensive in the short term, and that is all that matters to this faction.
To get approval to build new housing is essentially impossible.
When aggressive crimes are enforced less strictly than code violations or regulatory approvals, SF is the result.
The full, uncomfortable answer, is people who wear liberalism/equality as a fashion accessory - instead of really caring about it. The "don't criminalize homelessness" line is towed to the degree of mandating homelessness. There is a culture of blocking solutions, while offering no alternative solutions. This makes it almost impossible for the homeless who want to be uplifted (by far the majority) to make progress. Even something as simple as having a mailing address and a shower can make a huge difference (especially for finding employment and government aid), but such progress is blocked by faux-liberalism.
He did offend the Asian community with insensitive comments on attacks on them, which might've been enough for a recall.
Basic "supply and demand" also applies to crime, playground needles and sidewalk turds: if you lower the "price" (punishment) at constant demand (people who want to steal or shoot up in public), the supply increases.
Also EU, agree with this.
If it's the latter then I assume that social services are just overwhelmed?
I'm pretty sure that if I was made homeless tomorrow, and knew I had no prospect of pulling myself out of that situation, I'd migrate to somewhere with a climate like that of SF.
So the statistics say "most homeless lived in SF prior to becoming homeless", but if you actually check local school records you know they didn't grow up here.
Such an approach keeps problems alive.
Looks to me that the logical alternatives to means-tested aid are either no resources for anybody, which seems undesirable, or resources for everybody, no matter how well-off they are already, which seems wasteful. What do you suggest instead?
Family-friendly policies that help parents raise their children.
Universal healthcare coverage.
Walkable neighborhoods.
Good public transit.
Etc.
I’m not from the US, but I’ve been to SF a number on times (>5). The first time was in 2006 for apple WWDC, as a student, and back then I already witnessed a number of people wandering in the streets, mostly passed out or wandering, but I also saw peopoe shouting at the air, and defecating and throwing stuff.
At the time I was told this was a legacy from the post-Vietnam era, where many veterans flocked there due to the dem leaning of the city which provided an expectation of help, and also mostly the nice weather, but ultimately they did not get support.
From that point on things developed. Veterans from other wars, and then generally any people with life issues, were attracted to that location which fits their unfortunate, crazy situation - drugs, a barebones support network that provides food (?), and the fact no one bothers them anymore..
At least that’s what I was told.
In recent years I’ve noticed more of the situation, but tbh nothing that surprises me from the earlier observations. I didn’t see ANY numbers so that may or may not be the case.
I am interested in someone validating or correcting my perception
The bay area has the lowest rate of homeless shelters per capita of any major metro in the united states. Whether you're talking Atlanta, Miami, or Boston (regardless of weather), every other city has more homeless shelters and programs to house people. This gets people off of the streets and, at a minimum, gets them in a place where they can take advantage of other programs to deal with health and addiction problems.
In the bay area these people stay on the streets while hundreds of charities get small amounts of money to help, but with no real central coordination or group that's in charge of spending that money effectively. As a result you've got a ton of people on the streets, as well as all the consequences of that.
People- both on the streets and in control politically, don't have much urgency in providing shelters as a result.
First, it's not a single reason but several going hand in hand. The main one, as far as I understand, is the sky-rocketing price of housing, coupled with little social safety net for which the US is well-known, produced a lot of homelessness that has not been addressed and ballooned. With that also came crime and drug abuse (that's not new: I've been there 10 years ago and was shocked by the amount of homeless people in the streets, and I live in Paris, which has its fair share of homeless people, so that's saying something)
The second main one is that racism, which has always been a thing, especially in the police force, produced some very high profile events (George Floyd) and high backlash against the police, perceived as racist and not being on the side of "the people".
There has been a big "defund the police", which resulted in less policing, police force demoralization, a lot of officers quitting. Coupled with the previous issue, a lot of small crimes happened, mainly perpetuated by poor people. It's important to note that due to the US history, being poor correlate strongly with skin color.
I don't really know if it's the fact that the people appearing the court were black and it was deemed racist or if the court were overloaded (probably an unhealthy mix of both), but at some point, shoplifting under a certain amount (was it $950? Somewhere in the $1000 ballpark) was changed from a felony to a misdemeanor. In practice, that means you could do that without fear of retribution, which predictably had awful results, and might be the disturbing videos you are talking about.
There you go, hopefully I didn't misrepresent the situation and didn't forget any other important factor, though I'm sure someone will correct me if I did.
I don't really know if it's the fact that the people appearing the court
were black and it was deemed racist or if the court were overloaded (probably
an unhealthy mix of both), but at some point, shoplifting under a certain
amount (was it $950? Somewhere in the $1000 ballpark) was changed from a felony
to a misdemeanor. In practice, that means you could do that without fear of
retribution, which predictably had awful results, and might be the disturbing
videos you are talking about.
In most states the felony threshold gets adjusted periodically if for no other reason than to keep up with inflation. Texas bumped theirs to $2,500 and Alabama to $1,500 back in 2015.The felony limit could be $1 or $1000. If the DA's office refuses to prosecute, it doesn't matter.
I've lived in SF PDX SEA and I've lived in Europe
In the past decade, US cities enjoyed a renaissance / gentrification in otherwise formerly decaying downtown urban areas, mostly led by tech companies tired of car culture and suburbia
Now that money flows are slowing, these areas are reverting back unfortunately
IMO most US tech startups would kill to be in a cheap sunny European city say along the Adriatic coast but are hampered by funding regs etc
Everything I have studied suggests that, yes, homelessness is directly related to a lack of affordable housing.
Until very recently, there were condos and houses available in that exact price range in downtown Austin. Yet ask anyone who lives there, there are and were tons of homeless everywhere you went in the city.
There are other cities that are way more affordable than SF, with the same homelessness problem. The thing they share in common with SF are the "compassionate" policing policies.
These are stereotypes but in the midwest you either are driven/make the trip to California or your freeze to death in the winter.
In the south, you either are driven/make the trip to california or you are eventually shot or locked up.
On the coasts that is now considered horrible tyranny. So you gotta deal with the downsides of that.
I travel to many off the beaten path neighborhoods (mostly) all over the west coast and the homeless encampments I see in places like LA and the Bay Area are just people who can’t afford housing but have cars and RVs to live in.
Kind of annoying because the places where 20 years ago you could park a truck are full of urban campers. Last week I was driving around in Fremont, a couple miles from where I grew up, and every square foot of road around the place I was delivering to was occupied by people living on the streets. When I last lived there in the 80s Fremont was just your average boring suburban hell where there’s no way they wouldn’t have cleared out these encampments. Pretty sure that’s where they had a bunch of signs basically saying “no camping” which they obviously don’t bother enforcing.
Your most certainly can, if you can prove to a judge that they are mentally ill, and unable to make decisions for themselves.
What you describe is technically possible, but extremely rare. Even when someone is involuntarily admitted, the stay is typically capped.
Generally, as long as an individual isn't harming other people, "the system" doesn't have a reason to pursue a judgement. Many of these people are isolated from family/support systems or have nobody to actually care or advocate for them.
Further, many of them have complex cases. While treatment may be effective temporarily, it's hard to sustain the level of care after an admission.
Back in the day the police would beat the crap out of the lowlifes and drop them off outside of town.
And then the liberal guilt peddlers made noise and the men got weak.
Must just be some essential part of their character. /s
That's because abusive families are one of the primary drivers of substance abuse and mental illness.
Way to absolve tech of any blame and blame those dirty poor homeless addicts. Clearly there's absolutely no reason for these people to exist! They just do!
The dirty poor homeless addicts aside, what exactly did tech do? Tech didn't come up with the truly brain-dead housing policy that makes it so difficult to build new housing, so that supply can catch up with demand. Tech isn't handing out drugs on the street.
I'm not a tech worker in SF so I'm not taking anything personally. But I struggle to establish a causal relationship between tech and what's happening in SF. Usually, it's a good thing for a community when there's a local high-income cash cow.
People are talking as if this is the city's problem, but it's our industry that caused the problem. We have to acknowledge that so we don't keep causing problems.
And as the cash cow, our industry has the ability to influence policy to prevent these issues from happening.
Policy has kept housing expensive in SF by not building enough supply, by not regulating rents, but not building better public transit infrastructure.
And it's the rich advocating against affordable housing. And they made their money through tech.
If that means being a landlord isn't lucrative enough, that's fine, the government can absorb that capacity and build social housing instead. There's no reason the private market should be allowed to monopolize rental housing.
You could easily massively increase density by simply building more 4-8 story apartment complexes in the style of several cities around the world like Paris.
SF isn't an island. It's not landlocked. Just build up.
Land is usually not the issue unless you're at Tokyo, Hong Kong or Singapore levels of dense.
Since I moved here, I have sen people break into cars (numerous times), fill suitcases with products from Target and Walgreens and leave without paying, casually smoke meth in a crowded bus, empty their bladder and bowels in the middle of the sidewalk, etc. all of this brazenly and in broad daylight. In other cities, this type of behavior usually earns you at least a good beating and a night in jail. The negative feedback is very important for conditioning antisocial people to behave in a civilized community, but for some reason, SF has decided to not bother with it.
Some other comments conflate this with the "homeless problem". This is not a "homeless problem". Homeless people living in a shelter or pitching a tent under a bridge are not the problem in SF. Criminal antisocial nutcases getting no consequences for their actions are the problem.
In what cities does any of this earn you a good beating?
For extremely serious crimes, not his list of public indecency. For instance:
* Under the Environmental Public Health Act, it is an offence to urinate or defecate "in or upon any street, arcade, vacant land, river, canal, ditch, drain or watercourse or in any place to which the public has access except in any sanitary convenience provided for such purpose." The penalty is a fine of up to $1,000 for a first offence, and up to $2,000 and $5,000 for the second and third offence respectively. [1] [2]
[1] https://www.asiaone.com/singapore/totally-unacceptable-man-p...
[2] https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/nea-issues-warning-wom...
We know that the rich are allowed to do what they want. I’m more interested in the people likely to actually do it.
The GP was talking about an informal punishment though, not canning.
Without a police force dense societies usually can not function.
Defund the police does have a certain legitimate point in the US, where police are basically the catch all for dealing with any kind of social problem. In fact I think if it were phrased differently, most cops would rather there be another type of department that responded to sticky social situations.
But yes, the fundamental issue is really a lack of law and order for law enforcement itself, which decreases the public trust and increases adversarialism. The average person seeing a cop and reflexively thinking how to avoid getting their attention and avoid getting hassled for some bullshit is an indicator of a deep set problem. The cancer was fueled by drug criminalization and other crushing nanny statism (eg the draconian ways that traffic laws are enforced), but it would take a lot more than simply rolling those back to regain the public trust.
I've been wondering what cops are using these days since phonebooks aren't a thing any more.
Guess a lot of people are 'falling down stairs' instead (outside SF).
I would prefer that criminals were not beaten and that we find a better solution. I don’t think we have to choose between police brutality and crime.
In what way does using harsh language to describe harsh people cause DAs to not enforce crimes? How does one thing directly cause the other?
"Harsh language" isn't the problem, it's the framing and lack of empathy for these people.
Wasn't this the argument which lead to the current policy positions? Which seem to have not helped?
15 years in and no one in my family has been a victim to any crime.
> 15 years in and no one in my family has been a victim to any crime.
The reason provided above is as anecdotal as the one provided by GGP, and cannot be solely used to build any arguments/conclusions from.
There's also an axiomatic conflict between this & GP: The general neighborhoods that glerk and random314 live in may not be the same neighborhoods, resulting in the conflicting self-reports written above. It is possible that random314 lives in one of the nicer neighborhoods that glerk mentions offhandedly, and unless shown otherwise, has not been to FiDi or SOMA:
> > > I think a lot of people live in their nice neighborhood bubble and have never stepped foot in FiDi or SOMA.
Just went to SF for the first time in 5 years. So much worse. Wasn’t great in 18, but back then I walked across Golden Gate Park alone during the day and it was beautiful. I cannot imagine now. Market st is hell.
For example, it’s not possible for me to solve the systemic issue of drugs and mental health in order to stop public defecating. It is possible for me to arrest the person for pooping in the street.
I think we should do both at the same time. But we certainly shouldn’t arrest people for pooping because they have a systemic issue invisible handsing them toward public pooping.
People can be trash for different reasons. And if a systemic issue makes someone do trashy behavior, then they are still trashy.
It seems to be missing the point to point out lack of empathy for arresting poopers.
The societal dysfunctions are because tech ppl, the ones who ask the laypeople of the world to allow them to fix all their problems, have built a literal dystopia of social problems in the place where they have the most actual wealth and power to build something else. There is no greater argument for the myopia of VC-tainted tech solutionism than SF itself.
Crime was pretty crazy during dot com days, just tolerated more. Maritime Park next to the Hyatt / Embarcadero was always hip deep in homeless people at night. Very scary. Even worse when the freeway was still there. Market always had overly bright lights at night and looked like a sci fi dystopia. Absolutely no one wanted to be in SOMA at night which is a real problem for a startup working late hours. Hence small startups preferred renting private homes in Menlo Park etc. (Silicon Valley HBO)
Got to the airport and the taxi driver said "Do you really want to go there?" - which was a bad sign and things just got worse when I got to the hotel and noticed that my room had 3 huge sliding bolts on the door.... I was told by the receptionist NOT to walk directly along Geary (I think) to get to the hotel but go two blocks north first and then cut back down.
Being an idiot I ignored this advice one night and got the fright of my life!
This was in a hotel that was a fairly short walk from Union Square.
> Because you need me, Springfield. Your guilty conscience may force you to vote Democratic, but deep down inside, you secretly long for a cold-hearted Republican to lower taxes, brutalise criminals and rule you like a king!
That's almost 30 years old now.
We have similar problems here in the UK. A lot of people are disconnected by class which leads to misunderstands and bad politics. I personally think this class disconnect contributed far more to events like Brexit and Trump in recent years than social media.
Most of family are working class and things like mass 3rd world migration, homelessness, drug use, etc has caused huge problems in working class communities here in the UK. But when you try to raise these issues (as a working class person) you always get accused by some progressive middle-class person of racism, intolerance, or being anti-progress, etc.
You basically have to wait for things to get so bad that middle class people are also impacted, then they'll stop slandering you and let you have an opinion.
As an outsider it would seem San Francisco is reaching that tipping point now – it's not just poor people being impacted by these bad political decisions, but also the wealthy progressives responsible for them.
Although from what I've seen in the case of SF it seems the progressives who caused the issues rather just flee than fix the problems they created.
So let's take a look at the other list item...
Poland and Romania are not the third world, nor are Spain, Italy or Ireland.
India is borderline third world, but Indians are one of the most successful migrant groups in the UK.
Nigerians, too, are seeing success in education, business, politics and sport. My partner works for a YC-funded startup founded by two Nigerian Londoners.
So, by process of elimination, are you are saying that Pakistanis and Bengalis are a major source of problems? Hardly surprising that people accuse you of intolerance in that case.
Would you like to be more specific?
(And before you start up about class again: my dad drove a van for a living)
This doesn't get acknowledged in the West too much, that is that we (meaning countries that used to be East of the Wall) have outsourced many of our social problems to the West (which had created many of them in the first place in the '90s by ideologically imposing the Shock Doctrine therapies on us, but that's another discussion).
The thing is that this situation also affects people from those countries/societies who are not inclined to crime, such as a close friend of mine who's now having to go through lots of procedures and loops before being allowed to sign for a rental contract (she's Romanian, her SO is Polish, they've just moved from London to Manchester). All those procedures and loops are applied by the real estate agency, so not by the British State itself, I presume because the people from agency have to financially secure their back based on previous negative (from a financial pov) interactions with people from Romania and Poland (I'm also from Romania, if it matters).
Not sure what the best route going forward might be, because when you try to put yourself in each person's shoes you can understand why and how things are done in a certain way, no need to resort to "he/she is doing that because of racism/xenophobia".
In the case I mentioned, most probably that real estate agency lost money by dealing with Romanians and Poles in the past in a different way than it's used to lose money by dealing with local British people, that's why it put in place more complicated procedures for Romanians/Poles than it has for the locals. Yes, it is discrimination, but, again, in many cases it is based on pure material reasons, i.e. people not wanting to lose more money than they have to.
I feel like that's an open-and-shut case if "Oh, you need application form A1234-v-Romanian/Polish" is the case.
Again, that seems to be specific to that big agency, she also told me that in the past when she and her SO had found rental arrangements through smaller agencies things were a lot more straight-forward.
Yes. Sorry but while it's unpleasant to say, that's just indisputable.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rochdale_child_sex_abuse_ring
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotherham_child_sexual_exploit...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telford_child_sexual_exploitat...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_child_sex_abuse_ring
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peterborough_sex_abuse_case
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcastle_sex_abuse_ring
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keighley_child_sex_abuse_ring
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huddersfield_grooming_gang
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halifax_child_sex_abuse_ring
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derby_child_sex_abuse_ring
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_child_sex_abuse_ring
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banbury_child_sex_abuse_ring
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aylesbury_child_sex_abuse_ring
Towns all over England have seen thousands of young girls be systematically raped while the police, councils and MPs have almost all turned a deliberate blind eye. Spurred on by the same misplaced sense of righteousness and/or guilt that presumably led you to write your comment full of obfuscation and finger-pointing, rather than sitting down like grownups and having a discussion that acknowledges the serious problems that have been caused by the UK's immigration policy that has resulted in whole parts of towns and cities being replaced by a foreign culture, instead of dispersing and integrating people carefully into the country. This is to say nothing of terrorist attacks, widespread intimidation against non-muslim practices, ethnic ghettos, parallel court systems, hymen inspection clinics, massive over-representation of genetic disorders due to traditions of inbreeding, etc.
Excuse me?
A gang of your beloved Englishmen were in court just yesterday for systematically raping young girls. Must be because of the Pakistanis.
https://www.itv.com/news/granada/2023-04-04/men-appear-charg...
Somewhere along the line this term was misunderstood and repurposed into a euphemism for "underdeveloped" or worse, with racial undertones. Best to just drop the term from your vocabulary unless you're talking about the cold war.
I suppose the issue is more that it's hard to agree on what the problem is or how to solve it. Eg, is it drug use that's the issue or mental health? And how do you fix that?
For example, a lot of people in my family abuse drugs – cocaine, ketamine, NO2, etc... But I also know a lot of middle class people who use these same drugs "responsibly". If you use a little cocaine every now then and you have the money for it then understandably you might see it as harmless. But then I also see the other side of this coin because I have family who spend all of their benefits money on drugs like cocaine and abuse it daily.
This makes it really difficult to take a zero tolerance approach to things like drug use because you end up pissing off all the middle class liberals who like using drugs on the weekend and see banning drugs and regressive. They also simply don't understand the problem either. They commonly think bizarre things like people who failed school and who are probably < 80 IQ just need a bit of mental health support and they'll stop abusing drugs and get their lives on track...
Similar things are true with homelessness. Everyone agrees people being homeless isn't good, but then what do you do about it? If you think people agree on this then why don't you try arguing for a zero tolerance approach to homelessness and see what people say? My guess is that people will start accusing you of not caring and arguing that it's not something that should be treated as a crime because these people really just need mental health support. But the truth is you're not going to fix homelessness by giving people mental health support. And again, this is so hard to explain to middle class people because they won't accept that not everyone is like them and that some people will just end up back on the street no matter what you do.
And I think this is really the core of problem. Middle class people assume (perhaps reasonably) that everyone is like them and their middle class friends and that they will make good decisions with a bit of support. In my experience this just isn't true.
As for 3rd world migration it's hard to know where to start... There are so many issues and this is such a complicated topic. To summerise:
- Cultural incapability issues. Again, middle class people struggle to understand that not every muslim is like their friend Mo from university. And as you brought it up, yes, Pakistanis are obviously one of groups which are less culturally compatible with British communities.
- Economic issues. I'm happy to expand on this if you like, but 3rd world migration in the UK has just been bad economic policy which disproportionately impacts the working class.
- Crime. Again, very hard to talk about this because people don't like the statistics here... There are groups which are significantly over represented in certain crimes and calling working class people in communities which have to deal with these crimes intolerant doesn't solve the issue.
To your point though, I think Indian migration has been great for the country – this is basically indisputable if you look at the statistics. I also agree that there are lots of great migrants from the 3rd world, which is what's even more frustrating about this... Instead of bringing over people that would have a net-positive impact on working class communities, we instead have an immigration system which selects for stupid stuff like being fit enough survive crossing the channel on inflatable raft, or lying about your country origin.
The problem is that almost no one tries to "raise these issues". Instead you get:
> Migrants take ALL new jobs in Britain
> The swarm on our streets
> Migrants swarm to Britain
> 3.8Million EU migrants allowed to stay here
> Send in army to halt migrant invasion
> 4,000 foreign murderers and rapists we can't through out
> Illegals have landed
That's after it's been sanitised for front page news. The fact is that those ideas were seeded by a right wing press, fire-hosing propaganda about how subhuman migrants are raping your daughters. The result was open racism and bigotry, not an expression of concern for job stability or integration.
First, that addressing the core causes behind most crime (poverty, drugs, mental health, etc.) implies not enforcing the laws. We could address the root causes while also enforcing laws.
Second, that enforcing the laws requires extreme punishment like beatings.
But there was also a lot of good stuff.
If we go with this, let's apply it equally. SBF should get 50 lashes in a town square and any employer stealing wages or landlord failing to maintain their property gets a beating and thrown in jail for a night. Why limit this punishment to petty crimes like pooping in the street?
I tend to refer to what's happening in SF as SF-Stockholm syndrome (I do not mean this as disrespectful, only that I don't know any other way to describe the normalization of what happens here). I grew up in Texas, spent time on the East Coast, with a reasonable stint in NYC, and spent just over a year Scotland. I really have never seen the openness and acceptance of severe substance abuse like I have on the West Coast of the United States (not just in SF).
Portland, SF, LA, Oakland, Berkeley, pretty much every major city here, there are areas of the city where serious drug use, and some crime, is effectively just tolerated. SF is particularly unique, because, by a wide margin, it's the smallest in area and most walkable. Other cities tend to be automobile-centric, so non-organized crime tends to stay in small areas of the city (though, from my understanding, this is changing in Portland for the worse).
This is combine with a fairly strong anti-police culture. I don't know the veracity or history, but people here, even perfectly law abiding people, tend to think the police forces are generally corrupt-and-racist, or have a history of corruption and racism. I'm regularly shock that everyone here seems to be disgusted with the police, but nearly nobody has any intention or desire to reform, normalize, or even overhaul the institution. Many seem to see very idea of police as just a bad thing.
Combine this with the out-of-control opiate epidemic, and what this seems to have created is a pretty nuts, but not actually abnormally dangerous, environment in San Francisco in particular. There is little enforcement of any laws, except parking enforcement. When my friends from Germany visited, they were very curious about this "opiate and crime thing" after reading about book about Fentanyl, so as part of their visit, I showed them the open drug markets around midnight at UN Plaza, at Civic Center BART station. They were horrified. It's hard to describe the scene of crowds of people, many just shuffling around, obviously high, often with pretty obvious other complications from living in squalor.
I call it Stockholm Syndrome because people have genuinely convinced themselves that this is normal. People here legitimately believe that leaving anything at all in your car, even small things, in any major city in America, will likely lead to a break in. Obviously this is incredibly untrue, and SF is an outlier in theft (to the point that the stats are laughably inaccurate because nobody even reports car break-ins to the police anymore), but people have acclimated to the culture, and just assume it's normal, if they don't leave the region on a regular basis.
Ironically, the city is actually fairly safe with regards to violent crime. Not especially safe, but the homicide figures show that things aren't "out of control" in the violent crime aspect.
The thing that's shocking is how in-your-face it all is. The signs of severe substance abuse, are ever-present in a shockingly large amount of the commercial districts of the city (though most of the city is perfectly safe, quite and residential). The city does absolutely nothing about it. They do not mandate addiction treatment, because, for the most part, the people with substance abuse issues never see a court room. Primarily, because the court system cannot handle the case load. My roommate is a Public Defender, so I'm acutely aware of the backlog of cases that are genuinely violent crime. Not that it matters, because in election-after-election, the candidates tend to be pretty much on the same page that nothing really will be done. Again, much of the populous has a very strong distaste for any policing action. I honestly believe that most people here legitimately don't like the idea of forcing people into treatment if they don't want it.
It is incredibly complex, and I've only just scratched the surface of the nuance in what's happening here. There are housing issues, inequality issues, nativist issues, agency issues, and even a bizarre idealization poverty and squalor. To cover everything would be more appropriate as an hour-long discussion over drinks at a bar where you can see what's actually happening with your own eyes, because I think most Europeans would be quite speechless at it all.
This tragedy did not happen in a bad part of town, and I honestly walk through worse areas at similar hours regularly, and it's generally fine.
All this to say that based on my reads of online forums, I think SF is ahead of the curve of Seattle in terms of near universal frustration with homelessness/drugs/etc (even if it’s not confirmed whether they are related to this case), but somehow no progress or change in elected officials have been made.
I’m watching this to see if there’s hope for some of the problems in Seattle, since online forums here aren’t pissed off to the same degree yet.
2. On top of that, California has additional broken tax policies and other policies that deepen the shortage of affordable housing.
3. Big cities are where the services are, such as soup kitchens. If you are homeless in the US and have nothing, going to the nearest big city is your best bet for trying to eat regularly.
4. California and big cities are both expensive. Once you go to California as a homeless person or the big city as a homeless person, it's quite hard to get off the street because housing is so expensive.
5. Being LGBTQ puts one at high risk of being homeless due to homophobia. San Francisco has a reputation for being more LGBTQ-friendly than average even for a big city.
So you have desperate people hearing high-minded nonsense that lures them into a bad situation and we aren't really dealing effectively with such issues generally, so we aren't giving people real solutions. Desperate, hopeless people with no options is not a good population type to foster the growth of if you value a civilized social climate.
/2 cents
https://sfstandard.com/public-health/latino-homelessness-sur...
There are also lots of reasons to question exactly how such numbers are determined and what they really mean, which is a long discussion I don't care to have.
Due to the temperate weather, California has largely become the dumping ground for America's chronic homeless.
Not all homeless are chronic homeless.
You don't need all your homeless to be chronic homeless to dramatically and negatively impact the scale of the issue for one state that has, iirc, 12 percent of the US population and 25 percent of the US homeless population.
If you're homeless and moved to a particular city because you believe you'll have a better time there, then you might feel incentivized to claim that you originally lived there before becoming homeless.
Unfortunately there's no good way to confirm or refute this data.
if we didn't have such a huge issue with out of state people swelling our homeless population, we wouldn't have such programs as these to repatriate them: https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/housing/homeward-bound-reloc...
...Or, being LGBTQ puts you in a higher risk of being homeless due to underlying mental issues. We can never know.
There was also a recent article on HN about the Catholic church -- which expects all priests to be celibate -- investigating gay dating but not straight dating priests to get rid of them.
I'm quite confident her mental health issues were due to the extreme abuse she suffered and not due to being trans per se.
Makes perfect sense.
You n=1 could also very well be interpreted as the extreme abuse being the source for the transexualism as well. Anyway with all the respect I will stop replying now.
No, that isn't my position at all.
You want to cite some research so I can look at it, feel free. So far, you have not cited anything, just made general assertions and shared your opinion.
My opinion differs from yours and I'm telling you part of why -- but only part of why.
10.1111/j.1440-1819.2010.02118.x
10.1155/2014/463757
10.1111/j.1600-0447.1993.tb03467.x
10.1023/A:1024517302481
10.1023/A:1019724712983
The correlation between GID and depression was modest, but significant (r = .20; P < .05), whereas the correlation between GID and separation anxiety was nonsignificant (P > .05).
10.1111/j.1440-1819.2010.02118.x
Comparison with previous reports on the psychiatric comorbidity among GID patients revealed that the majority of GID patients had no psychiatric comorbidity. GID is a diagnostic entity in its own right, not necessarily associated with severe comorbid psychological findings.
10.1155/2014/463757
Clinical evidence suggests that schizophrenia occurs in patients with GID at rates higher than in the general population and that patients with GID may have schizophrenia-like personality traits. Conversely, patients with schizophrenia may experience alterations in gender identity and gender role perception.
10.1111/j.1600-0447.1993.tb03467.x
Personality disorders, mainly within cluster B, were identified among 5 of 19 transsexuals, and a majority had multiple personality disorders. Among controls, no personality disorder was identified. Personality traits as measured by the SCID screen revealed significantly more subthreshold pathology among transsexuals than controls in 8 of 12 personality categories.
I will note that there were only 19 trans individuals in the above study.
10.1023/A:1024517302481
(One quarter had had problems with substance abuse prior to entering treatment, but less than 10% evidenced problems associated with mental illness, genital mutilation, or suicide attempts. Those completing the MMPI (93 female and 44 male) demonstrated profiles that were notably free of psychopathology (e.g., Axis I or Axis II criteria).
This last study supports what I and other people are saying here: That when allowed to be themselves, their psychological issues largely disappear.
Your second study also asserts "no comorbodity" of GID and major psychiatric issues. Your first study shows only a small effect of increased depression and separation anxiety, issues not usually viewed as "crazy" like "crazy homeless people committing violence" levels of crazy.
The only study you cited that seems to meaningfully support your position is the correlation with increased rates of schizophrenia. Someone taking master's level classes in psychology once said to me something like "Schizophrenia is known to get worse due to social factors. You put schizophrenics in residential treatment, they get better. You send them home to their crazy-making families, they get worse again."
How does this accord with outcomes being better for them in less developed countries? I had a friend with paranoid schizophrenia and he spent the last few months of his life mostly getting outpatient treatment at home.
It isn't an assertion that schizophrenia is solely due to the family being crazy-making, just that such people are vulnerable to negative social influences. Such vulnerability does not mean that all families of all schizophrenics are equally crazy-making.
Is there a study that proves this? I did a brief literature scan and it seems to me that researchers are unclear about the causation direction of things like trauma, psychological disorders, and GID/gender dissatisfaction. I think this is a pretty important part of the ongoing debate.
I don't want to be the "citations needed" guy, but I do have a tremendous respect for science and I don't want to just have to go with my gut on something like this.
I'm not an expert on Trans issues. However, I'm recovered from childhood sexual trauma and I had unusual levels of support.
So it's clear in my mind that a lot of what you see in the LGBTQ community is really due to the effects of trauma and not due to being LGBTQ per se.
But, I mean, most people would dismiss that as just my opinion. So it probably isn't something you would want to cite.
Do you have a source for this? Because I’ve seen other conflicting claims that transitioning and trans acceptance doesn’t show much effect on suicide outcomes.
(2022) “ In this prospective cohort of 104 TNB youths aged 13 to 20 years, receipt of gender-affirming care, including puberty blockers and gender-affirming hormones, was associated with 60% lower odds of moderate or severe depression and 73% lower odds of suicidality over a 12-month follow-up.” https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle...
(2021) “ Data were collected as part of a 2020 survey of 34,759 lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and questioning youth aged 13–24, including 11,914 transgender or nonbinary youth… Use of GAHT was associated with lower odds of recent depression (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = .73, p < .001) and seriously considering suicide (aOR = .74, p < .001) compared to those who wanted GAHT but did not receive it. For youth under age 18, GAHT was associated with lower odds of recent depression (aOR = .61, p < .01) and of a past-year suicide attempt (aOR = .62, p < .05).” https://www.jahonline.org/article/S1054-139X(21)00568-1/full...
The statistics might bear out that being LGBTQ puts one at high risk of being homeless, but homelessness being due to homophobia is an unclear and unproven assertion.
This will receive howls of disapproval. It's so obvious, like climate change being fake and Trump secretly battling a cabal of pedo vaccine-peddling warmongers. How could you possibly believe something different?
But I've heard similar about Chicago, Paris and Bradford.
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/07/29/trump-chicago-g...
> Conservative media for decades have painted America’s third-largest city as a national hub of gun violence and gang activity, crippled by what they see as political correctness thwarting real solutions.
https://blog.geographydirections.com/2015/02/02/fox-news-no-...
> Emerson stated, “In Britain, it’s not just no-go zones, there are actual cities like Birmingham that are totally Muslim where non-Muslims just simply don’t go… In parts of London, there are actually Muslim religious police that actually beat and actually wound seriously anyone who doesn’t dress according to religious Muslim attire.”
>These segments were widely mocked across social media and the station eventually issued an apology, stating that there was “no credible information to support the assertion”.
As a European you just have to look at all the claims of how "communist" California is to get an idea how detached from reality these people are.
Why are there so many people on unlicensed dirt bikes doing wheelies down the street?
The rich can usually avoid the stench and filth of the poor so they don't invest their money in solving it. Now the poorness is festering.
This is a problem that will not get solved without taxes, and it probably won't get solved without taxes at the federal level. Americans will not let themselves be taxed more and so the consequences are more of this for the foreseeable future.
This is simply untrue. There are cities with more wealth inequality (Singapore, Shanghai, Dubai..) that have no such crime or filth, because the police deal with it aggressively.
Despite having control of every layer of government they still somehow are blaming someone else.
San Francisco wasn't always like this.
It's not that anything specific has changed in SF - it's more a case of, the political machine has been running very smoothly in a way that does little to help anyone in particular, and occasionally it manifests as an "oopsie we let someone die".
The designated narrative role of SF since the 70's, as a Democratic Party stronghold, is to be praised from the left for progressive policies, and pilloried from the right for being a failing dystopia. And the narrative has simply intensified both ways over time, while the actual ground level conditions are way more varied. There used to be more overt violence, gang shootings and the like. Now it's mostly drug use and property crime. Mostly. After all, someone did just get stabbed. But in any case, the existence of the narrative allows every concrete fact to be shouted over by paid advocates for some cause.
To get at the truth you have to dig into the details neighborhood by neighborhood, department by department, year by year. The problems are not something that manifests from electing one wrong leader or voting yes on one wrong ballot proposition, but from the city openly allowing itself to court a menagerie of institutions that do no good other than to allow money to be shuffled between bank accounts. There are nice neighborhoods, mostly on the west side of the city, where if anything bad is happening, it's kept tucked out of sight. But go downtown and you get the apocalyptic scenes, which are supported by this "NGO industrial complex".
For one example, I present Urban Alchemy. Urban Alchemy describes itself like this:
We’re a social enterprise that engages with situations where extreme poverty meets homelessness, mental illness and addiction.
When a neighborhood, street or intersection earns a reputation as a place to avoid, we turn it around. Urban Alchemy is a peaceful and supportive presence, inviting communities to rebuild and restore a sense of pride and respect in urban spaces.
UA has a logo that looks like a cult symbol, and they hire former prisoners as "ambassadors"(i.e. they beat up and harass people, mostly homeless). This does nothing to fix the visible drug use problem next door to their building, of course. It would not surprise me to learn that UA itself has drug addicts in its ranks.
In essence, they seem to be doing the kind of thing you would expect the police to be doing, but the police aren't doing it, so they're going to do it very badly and say it is helping. What are the police doing? Not a whole lot, it seems. They were very happy to say it was the progressive district attorney making things unsafe. But even if that were the case, they just haven't been enforcing, not even traffic. They weren't defunded at all. After Covid, people started speeding around the empty streets and they didn't stop even after traffic picked up again. They need to fire the department and start over, like what happened in Georgia in 2004.
Tech actually did a measure of good for the city, at the expense of making it a really expensive place to live and bringing in a highly transient population of tech workers who "put in a few years" for a career launchpad. The tech companies threw their weight around and got some things built. However, a lot of the surplus funds that went into the government went into "programs" of the Urban Alchemy sort, and tech workers weren't in it for the long term and voted with the national narratives, not for direct investment in the neighborhoods. So, mostly, measures that favored landowners under progressive guises passed.
And that brings us to today, where it might actually come to pass that the city has to cut something for once. But they've made so many things in the budget earmarked that it'll probably be the wrong things that get cut first.
In general, the US has a major crime/homlessness problem due to the lack of a social safety net, poor drug & mental health policy, and homophobia.
California has much nicer weather than much of the US so homeless people move their or are just able to survive there. In some cases, right wing states purposely relocate their homeless to California.
America is currently experiencing a backlash against a broken justice system that tolerates police brutality, favors the rich, and is often racist. Unfortunately, this has probably resulted in an overcorrection in many places.
The previous point is exasperated by the fact that the Republican party, which in recent decades has been more oriented around "law and order", has become a far right party. Therefore, even if someone agrees with their candidate on crime, they may disagree with them on economics, LGBTQ rights, etc.
I don't know if this is true, but I've been told that unlike most other cities, much of SF's resources for helping homeless people is located in their downtown. That then results in the homeless problem being much more visible there.
The truth is tech ruined the city. SF used to be a city of misfits, who don't usually have high income. Tech workers started flooding the city, drove up rents, and these misfits ended up homeless. Once you're homeless it's a struggle, some get back on their feet but some start abusing drugs. Government support programs are terribly run, so nobody uses them. Let the situation go on for a few years and you get SF.
It's not just SF though, it's any city in North America that has had booming rents the past couple decades. Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, SF.
If you look at Tokyo, rents are low and jobs are plentiful. The biggest city in the world has less than 4000 homeless people living in it.
I hope this serves as a wake up call to you that your biases are preventing you from seeing the whole picture.
This is called post hoc reasoning, or, in tech, decision-based data-making.
The left decided that regulating society's behavior was racist so they stopped doing it since 2014.
the other part of the problem is there's a certain minority demographic who are responsible for 80% of the violent crime. Yes, it is racist to point this out but reality is racist. Europe doesn't have much of this demographic.
There's no good solution to this. 3-strikes laws from the 90s kept this in check but they all got rolled back as racist. Current progressive thinking is be lenient on violent crime and treat the perpetrator better than the victim. This is proving disastrous
Either American cities go back to harsh enforcement or they will continue to descend into Mogadishu-like chaos
a) They cut officers and drive them away. They had 2,160 officers and needed them. They are down to 1,651 officers (Sept 2022) Source: abc7news.com
b) The San Francisco DA allows many arrested to allowed to go free. They elected a special DA to allow people to go free. Not for all crimes, but many. This emboldens people because they see so many people released without trial or sentencing for their crimes, so they are emboldened to commit crimes.
The number of murders is very sad to see increased to such high levels.
Why just make things up? The absolute number of murders is basically flat over the last decade and per-capita it's decreased[1].
[0] https://sfgov.org/scorecards/public-safety/violent-crime-rat...
[1] https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-San-Francisco-Californ...
- Sf closed schools for one year and half during the COVID causing large number of families to move out. And these are people who are contrablance to ultra liberals.
- Housing crisis: Corruption within the city's permit process has resulted in the need to hire "accelerators," which exacerbates the housing crisis.
- Public education: The public school system is facing significant difficulties and is in desperate need of improvement.
- Drug policy: The implementation of safe drug consumption sites has inadvertently worsened the city's drug problem.
- Street closures: Restricting vehicle access on certain streets has negatively impacted businesses and inadvertently facilitated the spread of homeless encampments.
- Small business challenges: Overly stringent regulations, often driven by the "virtue signaling" of the super wealthy, have created a hostile environment for small businesses.
- Progressive District Attorney: The DA's policies have led to policing issues, resulting in a surge of crimes such as robberies.
- Homelessness: Despite significant spending on homelessness, inefficiencies and corruption have hindered progress. Furthermore, "virtue signaling" has taken precedence over effective solutions.
- BART safety: Following a police shooting on BART several years ago, a reduction in policing has made the transit system less safe, deterring people from using it to visit San Francisco.
These issues may be interrelated or independent, but each contributes to the city's current struggles.
"Inadvertently." Nice one.
> These issues may be interrelated or independent, but each contributes to the city's current struggles.
I don't see how any reasonable person could not see that these things are all closely related. The inequality, due to the unaffordable housing, leading to rampant homelessness, drug use, and crime, to an almost-complete abdication of prosecution for these crimes, in an effort to be "equitable," and now... considering paying reparations for slavery!? You really don't see a thread here? Really!?
There are some really really strong forces preventing change in SF.
- Drug Crisis: Fentanyl crisis which is a US-made drug, widely accessible, and is affecting all America, exacerbating the homeless problem.
- SFO subsidizing addiction: On average $336 in grants given to homeless [2], many of whom are addicts, plus policies that allow crime for retail goods that are then fenced to support addiction. County Adult Assistance Programs (CAAP): Eligible San Franciscans can receive up to $687 a month from CAAP as well as a wide range of additional services and assistance. CalFresh (Food Stamps): All individuals who meet certain income requirements can receive up to $250 monthly for food assistance.
i'd add 2 citations under " Homelessness [1] "
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/23/books/review/san-fransick...
[2] According to the San Francisco Department of Homelessness and Supportive Housing, as of 2021, the average amount of General Assistance (GA) provided to individuals experiencing homelessness in San Francisco was $336 per month.
San Francisco has tended to view aggressive law enforcement against poor or homeless people as immoral (they don't want to criminalize being poor) which has had an unintended affect of making it a good place to be a homeless person or criminal.
while simultaneously staying heavily invested in economics that nobody but some quiet, far off yacht owner seems to be happy about
As someone from the general northeast US, it's amazing how local views of california have changed as they continue to kind of...drag their feet along and keep up this "highly based" outward appearance.
In 2000, there was observably more crime everywhere, but rents were cheap and as a young person I enjoyed the relative lawlessness. Market St used to be nothing but adult theaters and shady import shops. Things are 1000% NICER in ALL areas of the city. The transformation of China Basin has been incredible.
But you have to put all the down-and-out people somewhere. We squeezed them out of many central refuge areas (Tenderloin, 6th St., Fillmore, Mission) and then expected instant gentrification.
TL;DR... SF: far from perfect, but definitely not on a downward slope.
1. Rent has become insanely expensive such that a lot of people end up no the streets. This is the cause of the tent cities popping up, and really are a small part of what people have a problem with. The "invisible" homeless.
2. We do not have any resources for people who are too mentally ill or too sick to be of any "use" to society. A lot of those people end up on the street, where they are vulnerable to manipulation to start using heroin. A lot of them have mental disabilities. No, we do not have mental hospitals, and the ones that do exist are full, and they are not hurrying to build more.
3. We have a massive heroin addiction epidemic. These are the people who are crawling all over the place trying to get their fix, mugging people in the fugue states between scraping enough money together to get their next fix. The "highly visible" homeless.
So. Something like 0.17% of our population is homeless. That is like 600k people.
Imagine what it will take get these people off the streets and reintegrated into society, if that is even possible.
They need:
1. Shelter.
2. Food.
3. Medical professionals to help them come down from the high, and help them get on a better path to stop using drugs.
4. Security to prevent re-victimization.
5. Legal authority to detain them without their consent ( a lot of homeless people have schizophrenia and are extremely paranoid and do not trust anyone ).
Imagine how much that will cost.
The US government is extremely austere around funding this stuff, so it has been left up to the cities and states, which do not have the resources to tackle the problem.
So that is really it. It's too expensive, and all the money is pooled into the top .1% of the population, and we don't tax them, and they are busy building rocket ships, so we don't have any money to fix the issue.
Some people want the cops to arrest them but that is actually MORE expensive and MORE prone to failure, other ethical issues aside. ( of which there are many )
There may be more impactful things for the likes of Bezos to invest in than rocketships, but the idea that more wealth redistribution via taxation here would help things needs evidence to back it up.
In 2021, when the stock market was at its peak and therefore the net worths of billionaires were the most inflated (for which you can blame government policy, anyway), the wealth of all billionaires in the US were around $4T. Even if you confiscated it all and were magically able to sell all of their interests in various holdings without affecting the price, it would pay for two, maybe three years of Social Security and Medicare; forget the rest of the federal government, let alone all the other levels of government.
It's been pointed out elsewhere that San Francisco already spends over a billion dollars a year on programs related to homelessness, or around $57k per homeless person. To put it in context, if the whole country spent the same amount on welfare per capita, it would be $19T, which is 3x the current federal budget and over 80% of the GDP. It's a mind-boggling amount of money which would be completely untenable to sustain over time.
You would have to rely on a lot of faith to think that lack of money is what is preventing these problems from being fixed.
Since then, I have relocated to Austin, where homelessness has always been more prevalent than in other southern cities but never to the same extent as in LA or SF. However, a few years ago, our mayor chose not to penalize public camping, and as a result, homeless camps began to spring up throughout the city, including a tent city beneath a highway near my home. This led to a host of issues, including campfires, public defecation, and needles, necessitating constant intervention by EMS.
Fortunately, a proposition to make public camping illegal again passed with ease. While the city council was initially slow to enforce the ban, they eventually did so, and one by one, the tent cities disappeared. Occasionally, a tent pile of belongings still appears, but these are also cleared out promptly.
It's unclear where the former residents of these tent cities have gone. Some may have relocated to the creeks or woods out of sight, while others may have taken a bus to SF or LA. Alternatively, perhaps the change in policy inspired some of them to reach out to family members or other support networks to try and get back on their feet.
Ultimately, all I know is that enforcing basic laws had a positive impact on the non-homeless population, and I hope that those experiencing homelessness can find a way to improve their situation without making the city worse for everyone else.
1) Various US policies have driven up rates of destructive drug use (i.e. it's easier to get truly toxic drugs like Meth and Fent than it is to get lower harm, but equally potent drugs)
2) Various US policies have made life miserable for people who fall victim to that drug use
3) SF has nice weather and is generally more tolerant of people on drugs (California is the capital of working professionals with hard-drug habits)
4) Given the above, if you're down on your luck and drug addicted in the US, SF, Seattle, and LA are the only logical places to live in
5) For political reasons (SF is the home of leading progressives like Nancy Pelosi, Gavin Newsom, Kamala, etc.), there is a well-funded cultural apparatus trying to label SF as a failed state due to its own policies
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Fransicko
by Michael Shellenberger
Id be really careful of taking anything people here say seriously. Its a politically divisive topic and the stuff ive seen in the comments are people getting riled up. The right wing loves to hate san francisco, the media loves to hate it too. Please consider there are multiple sides, people are being manipulated by media and outrage
In short, nothing happened to make SF this way, it's always been this way. The idea that SF is some left-wing exemplar is just as foolish as the idea that is was a good place to start start-ups. It's all hype. SF is kinda nasty. (Go check out what was going down here a few decades ago. But be warned, it's pretty fucked up. It's a story that culminates in the events at Jonestown. If you don't already know what that is, then you probably should not look it up.)
- SF has policies that encourages homeless to emigrate there, one of which is being pretty lenient to anyone who sets up camp on the streets
- SF allows open drug markets that has become a hotbed of criminal activity
- Police aren't fully empowered, and many people because of their ideology tend to hate police
- Lots of catch and release going on, both anecdotally and on news
- They offer drug kits (think needles, pipes, and other tools). The kit looked to be worth around $100
- They gave free alcohol/marijuana to homeless during lockdown
- A large subset of the population seem to give no shits about the city or other people: public urination, defecation, harassment, drug use, property theft, vandalism is common. The lack of enforcement has allowed these activities to increase
I have video, proof of damages physical and financial, eyewitnesses and the info of the men who attacked me. SFPD will not arrest them because Boudin refused to prosecute. New DA has not gotten back to me despite repeated attempts.
I wanted to build a life and have my family in SF, to contribute and make it the city I believe it to be, but I refuse to put people I love in that situation. I’ve left for Estonia and couldn’t be happier.
The new DA’s office has made a lot of promises but there’s been no substantial progress. Their continued increasing rates of prosecutions on violent crimes gives me a bit more hope that they’re truly battling through an immense backlog - but I’ve simply run out of patience and energy to fight the system in order to compel them to simply do their jobs.
What trouble did the DA's office give you?
Since Boudin left, they have been much more responsive and have intimated they well get to my case. I just haven’t seen any action yet - but they have been far easier to communicate with.
Their accusation against Boudain could be correct but they could just as well be lazy and blame it on what the DA's office may or may not do in the future.
The police achieved their objective of getting Boudin replaced by a DA who would let them continue to act with impunity. As you seem to have experienced yourself, fighting (non-Police) crime does not seem to have changed much.
DA's have a budget and a limited number of assistant attorneys. They have to manage their office's caseload, and keep cases they do pursue moving through the pipeline. Even then, they must compete with the priorities of the judiciary and individual judges to reduce their caseload and keep cases moving.
It was not uncommon for judges to periodically advise prosecutors, public defenders and other key defense attorneys to convene a forum for the expeditious resolution of cases (essentially a fire sale with lots of bartering) to lessen their load and improve their KPIs.
So I think it is fair to say, Chesa Boudin, in his capacity as managing attorney responsible for setting his office's prosecutorial discretion policy, refused to prosecute the case. No different from any other prosecutorial discretion decisions made by countless prosecutors around the country daily.
That’s not how it works. After being arrested, you press charges against them.
It’s incredible when there are so many stories of the police doing nothing and statistical evidence of the previous DA not prosecuting cases, that you choose to, at best, accuse me of being imprecise with my terminology or, at worse, claim that I’m lying about one of the most traumatic events of my life.
(It's worth noting that Boudin was recalled nearly a year ago, and so perhaps the SFPD will have discovered the will to cooperate with the new DA.)
In the US, The police are so empowered and do it all the time. I am unsure why gp thinks otherwise. They are not required to nor do they simply get arrest warrants in every case they think they have probable cause. Anything else would be silly. They would get an arrest warrant, arrest, it would get dismissed without charges at the initial hearing a day later.
If the DA is involved already or they know the office policy, Cops will not get an arrest warrant if the DA is not going to back them.
If DA is not yet involved they may do it for various reasons, but again, they usually aren't going to touch it if they know the DA won't back them. They have too much to do to be that passive aggressive.
As for the other part, Whether individuals can get arrest warrants actually varies from state to state, though it is very uncommon no matter what.
You know, folks get charges without being arrested - and folks get arrested without getting charged. These two aren't actually connected.
It isn't just that, but you - the private citizen - aren't really the one that determines whether or not someone gets charges against them. Sometimes, if you won't testify, they won't follow through. This happens in Domestic violence situations. But other times, they simply don't take the case to court or they take the case to court even if the victim doesn't want it.
That's not how it works.
You, as a private citizen, can't "press charges". The DA presses charges. And they have (so far, according to OP) declined to do so.
In colloquial terms, "press charges" means 2 separate things:
1. File a civil suit. Doesn't really work if the offenders are indigent.
2. Agree to cooperate with a criminial investigation. Can't do this if the DA won't initiate one in the first place.
In many of these cities, these DAs are propped up with insane campeign funds, get elected, and refuse to charge, or push for no bail, so someone gets arrested for a felony, they end up back on the street the next day. Just read some of the cases where some people are arrested over and over and keep reoffending before their trial date.
It's a bit of a leap from there to conclude that attempted murder would not be prosecuted.
Does it say anywhere on that memo that attempted murder would not be prosecuted? Of course not. Do these policies generally increase the feeling of lawlessness in the jurisdiction? Yes. Might that precipitate higher degrees of lawlessness? You be the judge.
The OP's argument is likely that the police didn't arrest an attacker because they knew that the DA wouldn't do anything. There is the plausible alternate explanation that the police were engaged in a bad-faith work stoppage or slow down. The third explanation--nonunique to DA--is that the police were overworked or incompetent.
I'm sure - given the option - any US west coast tech startup would much prefer to operate in some quaint old town in Eastern Europe with the cafes etc. and no need to hassle with a car. Unfortunately the venture community infrastructure / legal etc. is stuck on west coast - and AI is only reinforcing that
This is done for a good reason, it's to make sure that everybody can get a good service and to protect Estonian heritage and culture (otherwise imagine older people, if their doctor can't speak with them).
You can fully live and work without speaking a single word in Estonian.
It's totally normal here to speak English. Even at the cinema, movies are in English, subtitled in Estonian and Russian. When you go to shop, many products actually have labels in English (or in German).
Estonian is a difficult language, Estonians know about it.
A bit generalising, but to get the idea: Estonians don't want to speak Russian, Russians can't speak Estonian well. So you have this society fragmented in half.
So overall, everybody settles for the easiest language that doesn't upset anyone: English (and German as a fallback).
It's easy to find schools in English too.
Even the tax board speaks to you in English, all the website for public services ( https://www.eesti.ee/ ) is all in English, even all the laws are officially translated in English ( https://www.riigiteataja.ee/ )
To IT foreigners, the country is very welcoming and very very easy-to-settle in my opinion. To other foreigners, it's not true, because it's considered stealing jobs, bringing criminality, etc (basically same stuff that you have to prove when applying for an H1-B in the US)
To get a flat, real estate agents all speak English. They won't get offended if you speak only English, it's normal for them.
Telecom companies speak English. All apps (taxi, food delivery) are in English, because most startups and apps are not made for the local market as its too tiny.
From a political perspective, the country is now pushing more and more English; they'd prefer that you learn English than Russian.
So some shops are even removing Russian, and some administration now addresses you in 3 languages: [Estonian, then in English, and then Russian] (whereas before it was [Estonian, then Russian, and then English]).
The country is very well managed and organised, main issue with the country is:
- Darkness (coldness is fine, but half of the year you essentially live in the dark, almost like if it is always night). Summer is awesome though because you get day and sun almost all the time.
- A really unstable neighbour country on the East (it's not totally impossible that a war could break-out, though unlikely at the moment).
- Taxes may raise in order to fund the current war in Ukraine and balance the government budget.
but otherwise it's a really good place to live and raise a family.
One thing of note, with the caveat it's been a few years since I lived there (although I stay closely in touch with friends and visit often... actually I am typing this from my airbnb in Tallinn) -- you might get some looks if you're brown or black. From my experience this is mainly from older people and it's pretty benign, but it's not the most cosmopolitan place and most people of color you see are "students" for visa purposes who have been there for many years and work for gig startups delivering food or driving Bolt (Uber equivalent). I never felt unsafe or anything, but there were a few uncomfortable moments during my time there as a person of color.
Estonia is a NATO country, so you should be good unless WWIII happens.
https://www.factcheck.org/2016/05/whats-trumps-position-on-n...
https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/3/pd...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...
"Estonia is in the suburbs of St. Petersburg.
The Russians aren't gonna necessarily come across the border militarily. The Russians are gonna do what they did in Ukraine.
I'm not sure I would risk a nuclear war over some place which is the suburbs of St. Petersburg"
Unless I misunderstand, I already see the speech: "we saved millions of Americans thanks to my mastermind diplomacy, we send our prayers to all our allies, good luck!"
It doesn't necessarily mean that Washington would attack Moscow, and vice-versa or that they would be war outside "disputed" territories.
If tomorrow they have to choose between saving Tallinn or San Francisco, they'll make some choices, but not irrational ones.
The main TV channel in Russia openly threatens of an hybrid-scenario like in 2014 in Ukraine where they sent soldiers without bearing insignias or flags (so officially it was not an attack).
Let's say Estonia is in a situation in some way similar to North Korea vs South Korea.
Very peaceful and nice country inside but with a risk of getting into a dangerous military situation and some support guaranteed by the US and other allies if things goes bad.
The ambassadors of both countries kicked out each other in harsh ways, the customs don't collaborate together anymore, etc.
No panic, but still good to keep in mind, just in case.
I also really enjoyed learning about all the little places, and it's a bonafide research rabbit hole if that's your sort of thing: weather, taxes, sports, politics, culture, economy, transport, food, history, lifestyle, geography. There's such variety and distinctness! I mean, you can cut the pie anyway you like and I bet there's somewhere in the US to suit you.
These folks aren’t all dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WErjPmFulQ0
Source: I lived there from 2016 until last year and I still have a house there.
I moved out of state late last year.
I do love the burbs of Forsyth county though.
People moving into Forsyth over the last decade are transplants from up north and other parts of Atlanta are part of the “professional class” as the population has grown. They are the “college educated white suburban” group that have completely different attitudes than the people who have been in Forsyth forever.
Overland Park, KS
Minneapolis, MN
Colorado Springs, CO
Plano/McKinney/North Dallas, TX
Asheville, NC
Cincinnati, OH
Cleveland, OH
Bellingham, WA
SF is a pretty nice place, but you have to avoid tenderloin and soma.
But even with such nutcases, who you can safely ignore, because they’re just out of their heads clearly, I really like LA.
I find the street people in LA are not as dirty or aggressive as the worst street people in San Francisco. It’s like a Street people in LA still see you is kind of kin. But the street people in San Francisco: you guys are on two sides of divide like you’re from different worlds.
I remember Street people from both cities but I can’t remember like the specific places. I just recall that during the day, San Francisco is a lot worse than LA. More street people more aggressive, more dirty.
This was pre-pandemic, though, so maybe things have changed a lot. Hopefully for the better in all aspects!
Not to say there aren’t great places to live in the rest of the US. Aside from the sometimes idiotic politics at the statehouse I’ve been fine living in Ohio, for example.
Car accident risk exists in both places, the stabbing risk is higher in some.
Not saying that we should not try to mitigate and and reduce them.
Shootings, stabbings and muggings are things that require intention.
Unless he accidentally fell on the knife 37 times...
In terms of probability of getting hurt, car crashes dwarf being stabbed so a flight to safety that requires more driving is almost surely increasing your odds of being harmed. Likely the numbers are underreported as well. But headlines get attention. Family of four t-boned in an intersection by a drunk driver just doesn't get the clicks that CTO stabbed in San Francisco does.
Not to say there aren't problems, of course.
> cops and 'community orgs' dedicated to keeping certain people in their place
Come now, that's as exaggerated as saying coastal states have no law enforcement anymore and have taxpayer-funded abortion factories. If there is such a thing as drinking Fox News koolaid, what you're saying is the MSNBC equivalent.
Do you spend a lot of time in the South? I live in a Deep South state as an immigrant and visible ethnic minority. People of different races get along very well here. I used to live in a major coastal metropolis that had BLM signs on every other lawn but effectively zero black people actually living in those neighborhoods. Here? Effectively zero BLM signs, but black and white and other races rubbing shoulders as neighbors every day.
For the past few decades, if you asked black professional athletes what city they were most likely to face overt racism in, it was Boston, not a Southern city.
https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/san-antonio-...
https://nypost.com/2022/02/01/dashcam-shows-florida-man-open...
Your two anecdotes, by the way, show no evidence that the people involved were of different races.
What would it take for it to change? Really? It is never too late to change.
But right now, the SF tech travel agents here and in the comments section are going to have a hard time at pitching that the city is 'safe' for them and now have to admit that it has gotten worse.
But maybe we should start with identifying the 'problem' which has something to do with 'who' is running those streets and seeing if there is a patten in other cities in the US...
Once you know, you will find your answer.
Putting criminals in jail and keeping them there.
I’m worried that there’s going to be a massive collapse of the tax base long before any serious reform attempts.
The push to shut down private prisons, especially in California for example.
By proxy that made it a right leaning thing.
I’ve heard my more right wing friends suggest that a big Democratic donor has been specifically backing DAs who do this type of thing. I have no references for it at all, but I know that Desantis even mentioned it in the press while discussing the Trump charges in NY.
Have the private prisons been replaced?
Surely this can't be the blanket cause?
Everything I've been able to find indicates that crime statistics are trending downwards and are already much lower than historical levels.
People generally are uncomfortable with crime being up 50% in 3 years, even if it's still down 30% from 1991.
Where did the 50% number come from?
Q1 2023 appears to be down nearly 10% on Q1 2022 and 25% compared with Q1 2017.
2022 as a whole was lower in most areas than 2017 with 9,000 fewer incidents.
[0] https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crim...
Underreporting seems like a huge problem, even here with our blooming crime rate. I've had to call the police twice since covid, once because by house caught a stray bullet from a car chase/shootout, and the cops said that the only people who bothered to report were myself and the elementary school down the street. The folks in the other house that took rounds had no desire to interact with the police.
However, I work in the physical security space (eg: cameras, video AI, access control, etc.).
Overall, it does not feel like actual crime rates are down, but there are many things that are simply going unreported. Thus, the stats might look better, but they are not always a representation of reality.
As one example, loss prevention departments have always been busy, but they could usually get a response from the police. Now you have retail theft gangs/rings openly walking out with thousands of dollars of product, getting into a stolen vehicle, driving off, and police more or less just not even returning a phone call in many areas.
This is not everywhere at this point, but a lot of major metropolitan areas are seemingly observing significantly increased "petty" crimes, which are going unreported and unresponded to.
It's a weird social phenomenon. Groups based on trait X will tend to choose the most radical and forceful members for trait X as their leaders. To the point where trait X is actually warped beyond recognition.
2017-2022 [0]:
* ~9,000 fewer incidents in total.
* Rape halved.
* Robberies decreased to 2/3 of 2017 numbers.
* Burglary/Motor vehicle theft increased but Larceny theft decreased by more than both combined.
Q1 2017/2023 [0]:
* ~4,000 fewer incidents in total.
* Only Motor vehicle theft and Arson were slightly up on 2017 levels.
Q1 2022/2023 [0]:
* Total incidents down by 9.7%
* Burglary down by 11.2%
* Motor vehicle theft down by 8.5%
* Larceny theft down by 12%
* Assaults did increase by 2.2%
* As did Robberies by 13.6%
[0] https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crim...
My car was broken into 3 times in 10 years. I reported it once because “what difference does it make?”
See, that's the thing about crime stats: they only tell you successful convictions. They do not factor in police inactivity, people not reporting, police not filing, plea bargains to misdemeanors, DAs not prosecuting, cases getting dismissed.
Homicides however mean a cadaver is involved, and that can't be policy-washed: it is there in the morgue on file with the medical examiner.
Homicides are included. If you had kept reading you would've seen that the next sentence is:
> Homicides reflect the number of victims and are not based on the incidents.
It appears that homicides have generally been below, and haven't risen above, 2017 levels.
> See, that's the thing about crime stats: they only tell you successful convictions.
It's not mentioned specifically but it's implied that these are reported incidents rather than convictions:
> Incidents that are unfounded or unsubstantiated have also been excluded from the dataset.
Seems like the DA should be charged with obstruction of justice.
DAs are elected, so notionally, Boudin, the DA for SF, is representating the will of the people by not prosecuting criminals deemed to be "low level crimes".
U.S. Attorneys prosecute people for crimes that violate federal law, convictions which often result in time in federal prisons.
In the US, victims can’t press criminal charges; only the government can.
> what's the prosecutor got to do with it? Isn't it a police decision?
Usually, it’s both. Ideally, the prosecutor decides whether to prosecute, but if the police never pass information along to the prosecutor, the decision is effectively being made by the police.
The same is happening in Philadelphia too. Its sad, because the city was on the upswing in the first half of the 2010's and making a lot of progress on reducing crime. Then a new DA came in and did a complete 180. Now its worse than ever. Look up videos of "Kensington, Philadelphia" on Youtube. Its like Mad Max these days.
Some call it slums, some call it nice
I wanna take you through a wasteland I like to call my home
Welcome to paradise ~
Not sure we got the least worst.
Individual results will still rightly depend on voters. You can blunt the attraction of extremism, but hearts and minds need shifting before voters will take a fundamentally different approach.
I'd support that if it were coupled with multiple-choice position forms that were required to be filled out by each candidate, covering core issues and options. That is, no free response, not-an-answer answers.
But yes, I totally agree with your proposal. I can even see it helping with cutting through all the boilerplate verbiage candidates are having to use to pay respects to various things, and return some focus on actual policies.
Which is a shame, because "knowing what you're voting for" seems like a critical component of democracy, and campaign ads are useless (and expensive).
The rightward view of american policing is basically they're functioning as intended but are not powerful enough to achieve their desired effect and must be reinforced to succeed.
The leftward view is that they're functioning as intended, the violence and fear they cause is success, and so the entire thing must be dismantled.
The "centrist" view is I think something like the goal of policing is good & correct but the system is malfunctioning and must be adjusted. Neither side will agree with that: the right doesn't agree that it's malfunctioning (except so far is that it's held back from achieving its goal) and the left doesn't agree that its goal is just.
There's no neutrality or inherent virtue in a centrist position: it's a side like any other and you don't get credit just for inhabiting it. That doesn't make anyone calling you a nazi or communist justified in doing so or correct in their assessment. But it does indicate that neither considers your stance a compromise or allied position in relation to their own.
I don't know what it would be like to select political goals based on their likelihood in the face of such incredible violence and injustice as we create. I'm grateful I can't lathe my soul in such a way. Seems chill though.
The Overton window can move surprisingly quickly, and policies which you consider extremist now won't be in a decade.
Another problem I see is that in some cities (mine) people see racism at any attempt to alleviate the crime problem in lower income areas. I used to use the public transit system but it is now filled with drug users and people who enjoy terrorizing others. Police do nothing about it partially out of a fear of being called racist.
For whatever reason I get the sense that police are either extremely violent or extremely passive.
What consequences do they have from perceived racism that they fear it so much? Again as you noted, they are rarely punished for anything at all. They also do a lot of pretty unambiguous racism without apparent concern over this.
> For whatever reason I get the sense that police are either extremely violent or extremely passive.
It's both, and the reasons are interrelated. Passivity in some areas protects their right to do violence in others. Public fear of crime, avoidance of public spaces, these are results that benefit them institutionally. What incentives do they have for not working towards that result?
When the white liberals (like me) of my city unite with poor people of color and decry an action of the police it does affect them. They are human and criticism does affect them. It especially affects them when the whole city is up in arms over something they do. Mostly white liberals in my city don’t think about policing issues until something egregious happens. My experience is that when the whole city is up in arms about their actions then police respond like a petulant child by refusing to enforce the law.
Public fear of crime, avoidance of public spaces, these are results that benefit them institutionally. What incentives do they have for not working towards that result?
I grew up in the Canal Zone in Panama and remember the time during Noriega when he and the U.S. were opposed to each other. I remember the way I had be when dealing with Panamanian police during that time. Even though I was a white American I had to be very careful when dealing with them. I feel the same way around American police as I did when I dealt with police of a dictatorship.
My experience in America is that it is considered suspicious if a group of people are just hanging out outside. Four black kids walking together in my neighborhood would have the police called on them. We are, in essence, a nation of building dwellers who only go outside for the purpose of getting into a vehicle to drive to another building. It is as you say a situation that benefits police.
We don’t really have civil rights in the U.S. because police can, with impunity, fuck you up for exercising them.
My childhood friend's dad was a cop in a riot of historic significance in my country.
Protesters greatly outnumbered the police, and they threw stones and pushed them into a corner. Shots were fired, nobody died. They really thought they were going to be stoned to death because of all the anger. The few dozen cops left the event with PTSD and a handful never worked again.
As an individual policeman there is very little you can do about an agitated crowd who starts chanting.
So while a harsh reaction to police brutality is understandable, every single policeman carries the recent collective history of violence and knows they could be the subject of retribution. So the healthy thing for them, as an individual, is to not engage, because previously only potential perpetrators would engage in violence, but with enough heat, even bystanders may. Maybe the non-racist cops can't hide behind a collective, when entering a public conflict, as well as they could before.
1. Laws and adherence to laws are required for a society to function.
2. Policing is necessary to enforce the law.
3. Policing, as a job, sucks. It's the tedium of TSA + the rare but lethal risk of being in a combat zone.
4. Policing, as a job, is made worse by politicians abusing it as a panacea, where other, less politically- and financially-palatable solutions would be more appropriate. Trained mental health professional intervention, drug programs, etc. Instead, cops are put in situations they shouldn't be.
The issue is thus not that police fear being accountable in the same way the public is held accountable. It's instead two-part:
A. Police feel they are owed a different sort of accountability than the public, both in service to and as a reward for doing a job the public doesn't want to do.
B. Effective police work requires a different sort of accountability than the public, as criminals doesn't operate in a vacuum and exploit known police limitations.
C. The most effective police work, for both police and the community, is deterrence -- the prevention of crime from even happening, by simple virtue of police presence. Deterrence requires respect and/or fear, and impoverished people without economic opportunity and living in communities where might makes right aren't deterred by gentle policing.
All of the above are contradictory with civil rights (and also with themselves).
Ergo, the appropriate level of accountability for policing is "what gets the job done, with the resources the city/state/federal government are prepared to invest in it."
Which makes it a multi-variable optimization problem.
Clearly, SF's current values are not producing an acceptable result.
A lot of cops went to the ju-jitsu gym I used to go to. They assumed that I was an ally so to speak and were quite candid and about beating suspects. The whole system is rotten. Part of the problem is your point 3. The number of guns in the country makes it prudent for police to treat every encounter as if they could be shot. I imagine that alone puts quite a lot of stress on the mental health of police officers.
But I'd put the "optimal" (in the efficiency and good-social-outcomes sense, as distinct from a morally good-bad action perspective) amount at >0.
A credible threat of violence by police is a powerful deterrent. Especially to people who don't see the world in more nuanced light.
If someone like that is afraid of the police and so doesn't commit a crime, then everyone wins -- the potential perpetrator (who isn't exposed to the criminal justice system), the victim(s) (who don't have a crime committed against them), the police officer (who doesn't have to be in that situation and can focus on better parts of the job), and society as a whole (who save the substantial cost of dealing with all of the above: incarceration, rehabilitation, salary, lost productive economic activity).
The more nuanced discussion that tends to get lost in the weeds is "How do we simultaneously allow police latitude to do the job we want them to do, while also ensuring that latitude isn't disproportionately employed against minorities or political out-groups?"
In other words, police may need to crack a few hard heads. But those shouldn't be statistically-over-representative person of color heads.
Of course, fold in that economic situation is also racially biased, as a consequence of historical inequities, and actually accomplishing statistically-fair policing seems intractable. :(
But at the end of the day, people getting stabbed isn't good for anyone.
Even from an anti-police perspective, it builds support for "hard policing" policies among the general public, and eventually an election swings someone they support into office.
--
There was another comment in here that asserted that cops commit domestic violence more often than the general public.
Which immediately made me think "Why?"
Obviously, the acceptable amount of domestic violence is zero, but (if those statistics are true) there's something causing police officers to commit it more frequently than the general public.
It's probably partly that policing selects for "tough" people, by virtue of the work...
... but it also speaks to cumulative trauma caused by the job, and the effects of that.
You can't watch humans be shitty to each other, repeatedly, without it changing you. :(
It feels like we need a more complete lifecycle than "police for life," that includes cycling through various related components, some of which provide an opportunity for healing.
E.g. also stints helping defense and prosecuting attorneys, legal defense funds, partnering with mental health professionals, EMS, fire/rescue, etc.
https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2017R1/Downloads/Comm...
I agree with what you wrote and largely agree with it. It’s a tricky situation and I don’t pretend to know of any realistic solutions. I’m a keyboard warrior spreading the gospel against illegal police violence. Such voices are needed if we are to keep excessive police violence from being normalized and accepted. Voices are too needed in support of police. Extreme outcomes on either side of this issue are bad.
But yeah, to me, if I see police officers are 2-4x more likely than the general public to engage in domestic violence, that engages my curiosity about the job rather than the people.
You don't pick bad apples at a reliable 2-4x rate across the entire country.
And so much police reform (when it happens) seems to start and stop with the individuals. 'Find the officers who are doing bad things and apply more consequences to them,' etc.
Part of the solution, to be sure, but IMHO we should look equally closely at what all these super-offenders have in common -- the same job!
"How can we change the policing job to one that doesn't cause its employees to perpetrate domestic violence and employ excessive use of force at greater rates than the general public?" is a question I don't see much.
As an analogy, farmers commit suicide at far higher rates than the general public. Yet somehow I doubt it would fix the problem to identify only the suicidal farmers and just help them. The root cause is the stress and challenges of the profession, shared by all, even if it only ends tragically for a subset.
You can kneel with protestors.
A cop tried this at a BLM protests I was at, which was peaceful including when the cops inexplicably arrived in riot gear. His buddies yanked him back and we never saw him again.
So you're right, very little cops can do when the system selects for bad behavior.
This is one hell of a claim. Can you share some good sources that verify it?
NYC shows you can have broken policies AND do a better job on homelessness.
NYPD brutality, stop-and-frisk, broken windows, "it's Giuliani time" -- the cruelty of the NYPD is long-standing and well-documented.
Yet, NYC has done a massively better job directly addressing homelessness than SF.
SF's vaunted liberalism is largely for show. This is where a homophobic psychopath murdered the mayor and supervisor and was hailed as a hero by many residents. This is where massively corrupt machine politicians like Willie Brown feathered their nests. This is a city with some of the worst-managed public housing in the country, and neighborhoods like Hunter's Point awash in toxic chemicals.
This is a relatively tiny city with economic inequality and effective segregation outpacing cities many times it's size.
Just because they've elected a progressive DA here and there (and then recalled them LOL) doesn't change the ugliness underneath.
(I do think there’s probably an indication there about the attitudes of “old San Francisco” - but how much of that generation is left at this point?)
It's relevant because at the time, like today, SF was seen as exhibit A of liberalism run amok, and yet couldn't unite against a homophobic assassination of their own elected officials.
Now, the zeitgeist insists that SF's broken homeless policies come from misplaced liberal compassion as opposed to a long history of neglect and corruption, which was particularly acute toward hispanic and black communities.
It's a faith, backed by power and media. You can't fight that with reason, especially when you are being silenced.“ https://twitter.com/vdarejamesk/status/1643462162776567808
This article is about a different kind of “police pullback,” but the underlying phenomenon—cops won’t work when they’re challenged—is the same. https://www.propublica.org/article/what-can-mayors-do-when-t...
But no #M4A for the proles, because that's SOCIALISM.
It is disheartening that you appear to be so willing to go along with with whatever police do all in the name of safety. Do you really view the world in such a way that you can’t comprehend having a police force that does it’s job without beating suspects who are already in custody?
https://chicago.suntimes.com/2021/2/3/22263444/new-chicago-p...
Note that Burge was arrested for lying to a jury during a civil lawsuit not for torture.
In most states, anybody can use force to arrest criminals,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen%27s_arrest#United_Stat...
Of course the devil is in the details. I wouldn't risk my own neck by attempting a citizens arrest in a place like SF, because I think the prosecutors/etc there would be more interested in making an example out of me for daring to care, than punishing the actual criminal. Evidently the police of SF feel similar.
1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Ahmaud_Arbery#Peop...
In fact, by treating the two as the same, you commit a deep injustice, because a violent action does not get judged the same as its violent reaction.
I don’t think you understand the implications of what you just wrote. I thank you for stating this because it means we are in complete agreement. When a cop breaks the law they are in fact a criminal and, as you just stated, prosecuting criminals gets a high priority.
We agree. Criminals ought to be prosecuted. I’m glad you are in favor of prosecuting police who break the law.
No one is complaining when a cop uses force, they are complaining when a cop goes out of their way to murder, torture, and beat the shit out of normal citizenry who often put up little to no fight.
They are complaining about when the cops drop flashbangs into baby's cribs and getting no charges. https://www.cnn.com/2014/10/07/us/georgia-toddler-stun-grena...
If this is the conditions the police would like to return to, they should all go to jail.
What a totally normal democratic thing to say.
You are taking what is written and applying an interpretation that clearly is not intended or made. You act as if those wanting reform seek out the most extreme, nonsensical standards. You are unreasonable in your responses. I hope for you that you may one day learn and understand logic and nuance.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/court-oks-barring-high-iqs-cops/st...
This isn't just limited to intelligence. Police departments will not hire people who will do the job properly, and they'll force out the people who maintain high ethics. That's why people say there's a systemic issue with policing in this country.
> New London police interviewed only candidates who scored 20 to 27, on the theory that those who scored too high could get bored with police work and leave soon after undergoing costly training.
This is visibly not about "refusing to hire people who are smart enough to do the job well", but
> a rational way to reduce job turnover
Furthermore, since they interviewed only people who score higher than 20, where 21 is said to be equivalent to an IQ of 104, then those aren't stupid people.
Finally, I will say that the conspiracy theory that police departments are pro-crime and try do their best to do their job the wrong way seems out of touch with reality.
This is, actually, completely impossible. A very simple example: an active shooter situation requires an immediate non judicial punishment. Therefore, the laws need explicit carve-outs for cops.
> When one of their own is treated by the law like anyone else would be they retaliate by refusing to work
was incorrect: if you were going to be arrested for killing an active shooter, then you would not do it. And it would be wrong to charaterize this as a retaliation, as it is a rational decision.
Please read what is written in the context it is written in.
Pure invention, if you want to restrain your context then use precise language not a large variety of hyperboles like "It’s possible for police to do their job without needing to beat whomever they want, whenever they want."
In the end, I will sum up this discussion from my POV: you view cops broadly as criminals waiting to get caught (they are domestic abusers after all!) and if I were one I would never want to police your neighborhood.
I suspect this all comes from you living a sheltered life, and because your view of police and, especially, of criminals is informed by TV shows. And yes, "gotcha!", those aren't the same, no matter how many screenwriters enjoy subverting expectations.
It's quite clear to me that the application of your ideas has given this headline, so I'm comfortable ending this discussion on this note: I hope that your anti-cop views are eliminated ASAP through the voting booth.
After a few years of having retired, he came out being a cop.
These two quotes seem to be at odds with eachother. A cops job is only to arrest criminals, if they are prosecuted should not be their concern.
Good thing the psych eval for cops has questions that relates to this, and someone with your sentiment would not be selected for training.
Are you saying they shouldn't value their own lives, but instead behave as instruction-following robots.
2. You're still asking him to take a small chance with his life.
"A cop should uphold the law they swore an oath to protect, even if it means putting their own life at risk"
Can and have. Because if I didnt then I am still at fault, just like these police.
I know you were contrasting arrest with prosecution, but "only arrest" is still an idea that shouldn't be put forward even in that context. A cop's job is to preserve public safety. Sometimes that does and should mean arrest, whether or not that arrest leads to prosecution. More often it should mean prevention. That might just mean being visible as a deterrent. It might mean intervening to arbitrate or de-escalate a situation before it leads to a criminal act. It might mean investigating suspicious activity. It might mean helping a desperate person find the aid they need before their desperation turns into criminality. The possibilities are almost endless. If police did their job according to Peel's original principles, there would be no doubt in anyone's mind that the DA's actions are irrelevant.
Police departments don't have enough resources to arrest every criminal, so they should try to maximize their effectiveness and avoid wasting what resources they do have by deprioritizing arrests of criminals who they know won't be prosecuted.
Over the last 7 years, arrests by sfpd have gone down. This includes before the election of the prosecutor that "legalized stealing" (how?).
Chesa specifically complained about this a few times, trying to work with sfpd on why they were simply bringing less criminals to his office.
The common argument is that the police were doing as they promised: the union came out hard against Boudin during his election, and then held public safety hostage until the public finally recalled Boudin.
Now he is recalled and crime continues to rise.
How does your argument square with the data?
It shouldn't be surprising that the DA’s office and police need to work together.
Because prosecution was never supposed to be the primary goal of policing. See Peel's principles.
https://courses.worldcampus.psu.edu/welcome/crimj408/history...
Prevention is deservedly mentioned first. Prosecution is not mentioned at all, though the last point could be read as a veiled rebuke of those who believe it's a primary goal.
"The test of police efficiency is the absence of crime and disorder, not the visible evidence of police action in dealing with it."
There's plenty for police to do in preventing, protecting, and investigating, even if no prosecution occurs. The problem with US policing (and the associated justice/prison systems) is that these original principles have been completely replaced by a punitive and largely anti-community attitude or approach. And it doesn't work. Just as higher medical costs don't correlate very well with better health outcomes, intensive policing and imprisonment as they're practiced here do not lead to better public safety. Sometimes it's not enough to do more of what you're already doing, and a paradigm shift - by it's nature something that can feel very scary and might even produce worse results in the short term - is necessary.
If you just remove prosecution from the equation of policing, without making any other changes, you won’t be left with a better system but a worse one.
Agreed. To be clear, I think a blanket refusal to prosecute is a terrible idea. I was responding to a specific question - "why bother arresting" - in a context where arrest would have been easy and at least locally beneficial.
> If you just remove prosecution from the equation
Nowhere close to anything I suggested or implied. I was merely pointing out that successful prosecution is not the only or even primary purpose of policing. My interlocutor's implication that we can only continue policing with a focus on prosecution or give up on policing at all is a pernicious false dichotomy. We can police differently. Prosecution is a part of that, but only when alternatives have been tried and failed.
We don’t disagree, but so far humanity as a whole has been unable to find as efficient prevention method as prosecution. Indeed it would be a better society which could abandon the measure without negative repercussions.
It's not hard to see why they stay in the car and keep driving if the arrests don't even lead to prosections.
I don't think it's a suitable metaphor though.
Additionally, being a cop is a pretty safe job! It’s not even top 10 most dangerous jobs. Most injuries are because of the cops own traffic violations or, more recently, Covid.
No, my commits are perfectly fine, as are the vast majority of my peers' code. Only an extremely small number of complaints are generated, across a number of commits many magnitudes larger -- and not all of those complaints are of equal merit.
> If you felt that way, quit so someone who is willing to do the work can get hired.
Unfortunately, recruiting is down across most (maybe all) major cities. Maybe the would-be recruits see it differently than you -- with nothing to stake -- do?
Unfortunately, the matter of fact is, the police force decide to stop enforcing laws when they’re criticized for problems the police force caused. It’s childish. Police steal more money than actual amounts of theft in the country through civil forfeiture. Police are more likely to commit domestic violence. Police hired defense to argue that they don’t have any obligation to protect individuals or intervene in crime, instead of punishing cops who shirk their work. And then when any cops are critiqued the entire force stops doing their jobs and blames the critics for it.
The question is: why aren't police making as many arrests (commits). And the answer I'm proposing is: because DAs are reverting their work.
They are not reverting their work only in the cases of supposed police misconduct, so your counterpoint about bad commits is a diversion from the point. The DAs are not doing their job because they believe, frankly, that criminal justice as constructed cannot work. They don't believe a lot of crimes should be prosecuted even. For example, in DC something like 60% of gun possession cases are dropped. In Chicago and Philly it's higher than 90%. That has nothing to do with police brutality (bad commits) [0]
(And btw, these are the same people who think guns should be banned flat out)
What that means is the PM (district attorney) has the developers working on a product they have no intention of shipping (actual justice). Police are people too, and nobody is going to do purposeless work. You wouldn't at your job, and neither would they at their much more dangerous and stressful job. Nor is anyone in a great rush to sign up for this job, despite offered salaries being very high right now.
Police misconduct is a distraction from this point, unless you think 90% of gun possession charges were generated abusively -- which would be a completely innumerate claim.
0: https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/03/29/us-attorn...
Nevertheless, “risking their life” is what their Job description is. If they are not willing to do it then they should not have been given a badge.
Only 130 officers died in the line of duty in 2021.
https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-police-officers-die-i...
Eg, one police officer interviewed says:
> “I made two arrests two days in a row one week, and both turned into paperwork clusterfucks,” the former officer said. “When you’ve accumulated two or three use-of-force complaints in a week, you’ll say: ‘I just need to stop. I need to stop doing this.’”
The article later interprets it as "police officers opposed to the consent decree that McGinn negotiated [engaged] in underpolicing".
Which is technically accurate, but also... The article implies this is political retaliation, as in "we'll let people commit crimes, that will teach you", while the interviewed officer's reported experience is "when you get reprimanded and asked to fill time-consuming paperwork every time you do X, at some point you stop doing X". (Or you keep filling the paperwork, and therefore spend less time patrolling and responding to calls.)
Don't get me wrong, police brutality is a thorny problem and police often actively resists solving it. But when there's a tradeoff, if you act like the tradeoff only has one side and the other is that the people whose jobs you're trying to regulate are lazy corrupt assholes, you're not going to make a lot of progress on solving the problem.
And while the officer's stance is not an outright "we'll let people commit crimes, that will teach you", it certainly comes close to "policing our style, or none at all".
I also admit that a large part of why I often just walk during lunch breaks at clients instead of eating sometimes ridiculously good lunches might be because I hate collecting those papers/digital notes and have to force them into the accounting system at work.
Don't underestimate the dread of certain kinds of paperwork for certain kinds of people.
Even when police make arrests, they are back on the streets. Any rational police officer is bound to wonder, why make the arrest in the first place that only puts them at risk if nothing after them will actually be done.
There are few jobs on Earth where you fix everything once and it stays fixed forever. Almost everyone is working to keep a type of entropy at bay. Doctors help people get healthy who get sick again, I fix outages that will get caused again, and police need to arrest people who do crimes and will get released again.
It's the job they chose and trained to do. If they don't like it, they can get a new job.
Someone is starting these fires. The police go in and take care of it, the DAs literally release them with zero or nearly zero consequences to the offender and the next day (often literally) they are starting "fires" again.
We are human, not machines, we are not idealized automatons.
It has nothing to do with politics and everything to do with demoralization. Most cops simply want to do their job and not consistently be undermined or called liars.
To cops, that means "DON'T QUESTION MAH AUTHORITAH!"
Screw that. If cops policed their own ranks, getting rid of the "few bad apples" they claim are so rare, then perhaps they wouldn't be scrutinized.
Even so, 99% of the US is perfectly happy with the way the police generally operates and are always willing to support the Blue.
However that's not what I meant in terms of undermining. If a DA undermines the work of the police force they are supposed to support that has negative consequences on the actions of the policing body. This would happen regardless of whether or not the policing body were true peace keepers or aggressors. I would argue that in fact the DAs actions affect the PD-types-we-like more than the bully types.
A DA needs to allocate resources towards cases that are significant to the community, aligned with the desires of the people who voted the DA into office.
I have a boss who doesn't always "support" what I think should be done. And that's fine, because he has different goals that he tries to communicate to my team, but in the end, he answers to his boss. I don't have the full picture on why he makes decisions, how he allocates budgets etc. I just have insights from what he tells me and what I see.
But I'm a professional, and I don't get my feelings hurt when my boss tells me to do something different, or to do something I don't agree with. Yet cops are just different. In the US they get kid glove treatment when they break the law, either from fellow cops or the courts. They get idolized by TV shows as the only thing keeping people safe when they do little to actually prevent crime. And they continue to claim being underfunded, overworked, under appreciated and under constant threat of death at the hands of "civilians", since they tend to break communities into three categories (perps, civilians, and cops).
This is not true nor is it verifiable. This is a bullshit political talking point. And it’s ridiculous.
It was explained to me a few times that it wasn’t supposed to be an issue. The police will just as eagerly do their job and arrest criminals. But that never made sense to me. What happened in your case seems a lot more likely. What would be the point in going through all the trouble arresting a suspect if there is a good chance charges will just be dropped.
https://missionlocal.org/2022/04/chesa-boudin-files-more-cha...
You have 1/3 of the people here saying SF needs more police.
You have 1/3 saying the police don't do anything.
You have 1/3 saying other things, dehumanizing homeless people, saying if everyone had a gun it'd be better, etc..
And this probably is not the case of "everyone is right" but rather "everyone is wrong!"
And note that SF spends $604 on policing per resident, vs NYC's $626 on policing per resident
All the deserted streets in Detroit? Not so much.
The clean and safe neighborhoods of SF are livable (I loved living there), but at least personally I have found them to be notably sketchier than any other city I've ever lived in and I agree with you that the contrast is not particularly close. >95% of the shoplifting I've personally witnessed in my life happened in SF despite it being a relatively small part of my total life experience.
I used to live in one of those areas you talk about, yet still was attacked and threatened several times in the span of 6 months during my commute to our office on Market street.
There aren't many homeless people in the purely residential areas, but they are definitely where the businesses are.
The reality of the matter is that SF is the diametric opposite of NYC. In NYC, people live in Murray Hill for a year, move somewhere else and talk about their amazing experience in the UES for the rest of their lives.
In SF, they live in new builds (all of which are in former non-neighborhoods that were either highway overpasses or industrial districts), move somewhere else and talk about how they basically lived in Pac Heights and even there it's scary.
Anecdote is on your side.
Facts are on my side: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/10/31/violent-cri...
This city has lost it.
Though I supposed my concerns were misplaced, but not totally incorrect? Shrug.
Had a bike stolen from my garage with power tools, caught a man with an angle grinder in another garage cutting through locks and threatening my life, mentally ill people yelling in the street and saw a few people with machetes walking around.
I used to go to Whole Foods, to Chez Maman, to the library and the rec center all the time. I moved out in 2020 and will never return, my mental health has improved significantly and I'm not exaggerating. I feel so much better now, it's like a flip switched and I started appreciating the beauty of life and community again...
I have been told from very well placed sources in the US Intelligence community this is probably a hit.
That being said, I left San Francisco in 2018 because I was worried I would eventually become the random murder that would finally wake up the tech world to what an absolute crime ridden shithole San Francisco is. Don't quote statistics at me. I had numerous police officer friends who told me the statistics are all fake since they purposefully don't report over 50% of the crime in order to keep the city looking halfway decent since so much of it depends upon tourist revenue.
I tried for years to tell my friends the city needed to take the crime problem more seriously and the response I always got was dismissal or that "it's no worse than any other major city."
Well, I live in another major city now and I can tell you with great certainty, SF is much, much, much worse.
And now a good friend is fucking dead.
Fuck San Francisco.
Simultaneously, I don't understand your post. The second paragraph states "I have been told from very well placed sources in the US Intelligence community this is probably a hit." But then the rest of your post rails against the SF crime problem in general, finishing with "And now a good friend is fucking dead." Starting off by saying it was likely a hit would appear to indicate that SF's general crime problems (as bad as they may be) are largely irrelevant to this particular case.
Targeted hits and random street crime are quite different, no?
A bit too morbid to speculate on for my taste, but I hope this helps to explain.
do you realize how specifically you have to know the right person for an individual in the intel community to even remotely come close to knowing anything similar to this? not only are there over 100,000 that technically "work" in the intel community. 95% of those are not even in operations. even 5% of those in the field, 90% of those are working in intel related to external sources.
so what is that, we're down to the last .5% of individual who happen to work in operations, who happen to work on foreign/domestic actors within US who happen to focus in SF? yes, focus in SF, because people in the field don't have intel on what neighboring fields are doing unless they are "read-on." that's what sensitive comparmentalized information means--that you don't have any access unless you're directly involved with supporting that specific operation.
it's very highly likely that you're with some dweeb that works some support role, probably not even intel related. I can't even begin to tell you how many incompetent people work in this arena and how much even love to exaggerate and that they're part of something 'important'
In almost every random stabbing, the person doing it is arrested, no? To be clear, I'm talking about random, unplanned, and unmotivated stabbings, not premeditated robberies and other similar crimes.
The police statement did not provide any details on the circumstances of the stabbing.
“This is an open and active investigation. For that reason we are not releasing further information,” Officer Niccole Pacchetti, a public information officer, said in an email. “We will provide further details when they become available.”
If it was an obvious robbery, I would expect the police to be OK with mentioning that in their statement (in other words, saying valuables were taken and it looks like a somewhat random robbery).And maybe his wallet/phone were taken, but if police thought it was an open-and-shut motive, I don't see why they wouldn't mention that.
https://hindenburgresearch.com/block/
The report was released just 2 weeks ago.
One person wrote:
> Lee’s former company, Block, is currently under investigation by the SEC after the app that he founded (Cash App) was alleged to have been facilitating money laundering. Wonder if there is a connection?
And another responded:
> A hitman isn't going to use a knife.
But when you think about it: if you didn't want something to look like a hit job, that's exactly what you would do – use a knife in downtown San Francisco at 2 AM – and nobody will be surprised.
Personally, I find it a little suspicious, that an important individual could have been murdered accidentally in a city with an average of 4 murders per month, just 2 weeks after the SEC opened an investigation into the platform he created[2].
Also, the place of the murder wasn't described as particularly dangerous at night by multiple locals[3][4].
[1] https://www.ft.com/content/f5a27cff-2582-4172-87a4-2861c43c2...
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/24/report-alleges-cash-app-frau...
I generally agree with the rest of your post that SF has become a crime-ridden hellhole, but how do they know so quickly? Are they omniscient? Did they have Bob under a scope (if so, why did they not interfere)?
If they really had Bob under a scope for some active intel interaction and some well placed source in the US intel community started talking about this outside (no matter to how close a friend), that someone is going to lose his access, his tongue or his head very quickly. And knows it.
As soon as I saw this thread I also thought that this could be a possibility
Glad you are gone.
For instance, was Bob Lee possibly at a friends apartment party or a late dinner and drinks and then he’s about to get into his car near that park on the 300 block of Main Street and then thought “oh I need to get some cash for tomorrow”, so he just cut across the park to the Charles Schwab. Someone spotted him and then when he came back towards his car they ended his journey for the paper his wallet?
I have not read any details, but the location where it happened that’s a possibility. When i heard about it at first i thought maybe it had something to do with MobileCoin… maybe someone lost a lot of money or was afraid to lose market share. I haven’t read anything, but i would love to know more details.
Also where in the body was he stabbed?
edit: some more specific details in this article https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/cash...
He was Chief Product Officer at MobileCoin. Hopefully we learn who stabbed him, and why. 43 is just way too young. Thoughts go out to his wife. He was instrumental in creating Android. Whatever you may think of it today, we wouldn't have it if it weren't for him.
San Fran is also full of diabetics. Maybe they were trying to steal his pancreas.
Whatever you may feel about San Francisco, could you do it somewhere else please?
Chicago now is probably safer than it ever has been.
He lived in a giant half-block-long mansion a short ride from downtown, and his employees were paid well enough to never touch public transit if they wanted.
It was a transparently BS political play that everyone in Chicago saw through and rightfully ridiculed. Those quotes are designed for people who only know Chicago through right wing media like the Wall Street Journal.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/business/mcdonalds-ceo-chicag...
"For McDonald’s, though, the issue isn’t just about conditions in stores — it’s also about recruiting leaders to the company’s headquarters and convincing corporate workers to return to the office,” the CEO said.
“It’s more difficult today for me to convince a promising McDonald’s executive to relocate to Chicago from one of our other offices than it was just a few years ago,” he said. “It’s more difficult for me to recruit a new employee to McDonald’s, to join us in Chicago than it was in the past.”
And when it comes to returning to the office, he said, “one of the things that I hear from our employees [is] … ‘I’m not sure it’s safe to come downtown.’”
https://nypost.com/2022/09/21/ken-griffins-citadel-left-chic...
If we think logically about what allows property crimes to remain high in one city vs another, a couple things come to mind:
1. A higher poverty/homelessness rate leading to people resorting to property crimes 2. A higher repeat offender rate if the DA of that city chooses not to prosecute/press charges against many of those who commit that crime
For factor #1, this would be remedied by tackling the causes of persistent homelessness with things like Housing First initiatives to house people dealing with those conditions, and to also give them medical assistance since a good chunk of them are dealing with mental illnesses.
For factor #2, this seems like it would be a simple case of the DA needing to be more aggressive in prosecuting property crime perpetrators to both deter the act and to keep them off the streets to begin with. The SF DA office is particularly known for being too loose with this, unsurprisingly.
I'm by no means a crime expert or a lawyer, but this is what seems like is going on at face value.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...
I interviewed around 2017 in SF and it was so bad I didn't dare walk back to the station (caught an Uber instead). It's a terrible place.
I avoid them because there’s much elsewhere. It’s not that I’m explicitly avoiding, but my interests are often in other parts of the city.
5 car break-ins 2 bottles thrown to me 1 mugged, wallet gone Chased with an axe
These things happened at SoMa, which is objectively known to be a "nicer" neighborhood. The Tenderloin area definitely experiences worse. Surely everyone that has walked Market St or taken the train has seen things uncommon in most other urban American cities.
I struggle to understand how in SF we've gotten accustomed to downplaying these experiences.
and more recently i've seen crazy shit go down (or the aftermath, like broken glass everywhere) every time i visit friends. the western more suburban parts of the city are much better.
sf has basically been broken since the gold rush. seems to me the primary goal these days is to make enough money to insulate yourself from this stuff as much as possible, or just leave.
i'm having a really hard time reconciling 4 years in sf with thinking soma is one of the nicer parts of the city.
Lots of other areas are nice, but it's honestly very difficult to say SoMa, as a whole, was ever nice.
And to be clear, I usually find the "these cities are shitholes" rhetoric overblown. But SoMa has been, and will likely continue to be, shit.
What? After the Tenderloin, SoMA is absolutely the worst neighborhood for interactions with crazy people. What on Earth gave you the impression that it's "objectively known to be nice"? IMO it's the single worst neighborhood in the city; at least the Tenderloin has history and some great commerce.
SoMA varies a LOT by exact location (at a per-block level) and changes with time of day, time of year, and has changed in cycles over the years. The area where this incident happened was historically one of the safer parts of SoMA, but not the safest, pre-Covid; I don't know how much worse it's gotten but directionally worse.
When I lived in TL (136 Taylor) I had someone brandish a firearm at me, witnessed two murders (in one incident), a bunch of people fighting other people, public drug use, etc., but SoMA is where more people I know personally were assaulted (partially because they're more likely to be walking around there...). I had a few non-consensual interactions which luckily stopped short of escalating too far, and a few times had to abort trips to an office, store, etc. to avoid stuff.
TL at least had better food.
Got chased into the street twice, and had someone smear their blood on my jacket another time. I watched people eat morsels out of the gutter, defecate in public, scurried away from cars getting broken into and my Bart station was an open air drug market at 8am. I watched drugged out people wander into traffic, just to see other passersbys scream at the police for interfering. I’ve been to the poorest countries in the world and have never seen anything like the Tenderloin.
Ya’ll can keep SF.
usually only the lower classes suffer for our luxury beliefs. this is an exception.
"Elites decided they were vulgar, and during the reign of France’s Louis XIV, court chefs banned sugar and spice from all meals except for desserts."
And it was right in HN a while back that someone was poopooing non-European cuisine's use of spices as "a means to cover up subpar ingredients". Turns out that at least in Europe it had nothing to do with subpar ingredients.
If SF took crime seriously and actually hunted down criminals and put them in jail then normal citizens could live normal lives.
SF is the people's choice, no? The people in SF elected DAs who release booked violent criminals right away, multiple times. The people in SF elected politicians who told us, repeatedly and publicly, that looting is a way for people to express their anger or looters were hungry, and violent criminals are victims and questioning their policies are homophobic and racism. The people in SF elected politicians who could stand up projects in the name of helping homeless at cost of more than $100K per homeless person per year. That's $100K equivalent of after-tax income of a normal fucking American! The people in SF elected school board members who dumbed down curriculums. The people in SF painted "kill techies" on streets of SF and the people cheered it.
And most important of all, per the comments here, SF is fine and violent crimes are just the right's wild accusation.
So, what's wrong again?
It's the same gentrification -> disparity -> flight -> neglect cycle that's happened to lesser degrees elsewhere. This is unique only in its severity.
We seriously don't need rich people near us. They have too many whines and gripes and are too resourceful to not stay. I say that as a (mildly) Rich person.
But when a native sees the town go down, the native doesn't just leave. They still stay.
I live within a couple hours of SF and I got to say I 100% agree with the person you responded too. The residents of SF caused the mess they are in.
The existing old residents (50+) were already homeowners before the SV wave, and the new homeowners (who are younger and richer) followed the same bad habits of the older generation (albeit, for some different reasons).
The controlling political power in SF are homeowners and both new and old have come together to try to keep more people out, which has subsequently caused a bigger problem than what they originally feared.
SF is extremely liberal in some senses, but when it comes to housing they're extremely conservative. It's basically the worst combination you can make in the US right now.
This is all very handwavy. Why do you believe this narrative without concrete facts?
I left San Francisco in the early 00s... this was well underway by then, and the most recent boom was the nail in the coffin.
An entire generation of San Franciscans have been born and become adults since that article was published. Even if you accept the premise that there was significant displacement in San Francisco in 2004 that doesn't say anything about whether there is today.
I do not believe there is a large amount of displacement happening in San Francisco today because I have not yet seen any evidence.
https://sfstandard.com/research-data/san-francisco-bay-area-... From 2020-2022 SF (city) -65,522 SF Bay Area -249,389
Its also worth noting the SF (city) decrease was -7.5% or number 1 amongst all US counties with more than 100k residents.
Pretty hard to argue there is no displacement happening when it leads the country.
After all, why stay in a city when everything is closed when you can get the same experience cheaper somewhere else?
Any time window that includes 2020 is going to include very strong pandemic-related effects.
If someone is moving due to cost that is displacement in my eyes. If there was not a cost, they would stay.
You claimed there was no evidence, I offered evidence now you say oh no that evidence doesn't count because it doesn't fit my narrative.
Proof of displacement requires demonstration that people left SF because they could not afford to live there anymore. It's really that simple.
Techies with six-figure incomes leaving town to move back in with their parents during the pandemic doesn't count as displacement.
The residents (home owners new or old and renters are included in residents) caused this issue. You refer to them voting themselves into this mess as a bad habit. But who has that bad habit? The residents of course. Hence I lay the blame at the residents feet. I know numerous people that saw the writing on the wall and moved away from SF because they knew the end result (where we are today) of path the other residents were voting for.
A quick google search (number of renters vs number of home owners in SF) says SF is 65% rental household. Not sure how accuracy of that but lets assume its reasonably accurate. That would mean the renters have a larger voting power than the homeowners. If the renters choose to vote against their interests or not vote for decades in my eyes they are to blame.
Also please remember the homeowners are residents too. The are exercising their right to vote the things they want. If the renters are not exercising their right because they just don't care or are not political active that is the RENTERS issue. No one else's.
>>The homeowners gradually took over through the dot-com era and again in the latest boom... there's no one (in numbers) left that cares enough about SF to stop them.
So what you are saying here is the residents of SF that are renting and not owners do not care enough to try and fix the issues. Or to put it another way, SF is the way it is because the residents refuse to do anything about it.
And the government's answer is always rent control, eviction moratorium, and etc, despite that many landlords are hardworking people who carefully managed their finances.
The real answer should be increasing supplies, yet SF's tourism has a strong lobby group...
Sure. Why not? It works in Singapore very well, and notably Singapore also has some of the lowest crime rates on earth.
Of course landlords and homeowners don't want to expand housing in their areas, it's watering down their investment.
No government is perfect, but there's a much greater incentive for governments to build and encourage housing than landlords.
Every major city in America has slum-lord landlords that own dozens of properties, fights all development that isn't their own, and barely maintains their stock so they can increase their profit margins.
Landlords do not provide value, they horde it.
We can try to understand and address the socioeconomic causes of crime, while also aggressively deterring crime and punishing criminals.
We can recognize that the police are over-militarized and under-trained and burdened with too many responsibilities, while also recognizing that they face a population that is increasingly armed to the teeth and hostile due to a social media outrage machine.
We can have a sane immigration policy and protect our borders while recognizing that immigrants are vital to the economy and having empathy for refugees or people simply fleeing violence, and without separating children from their parents or locking them in cages.
When I was working in SF (downtown, SoMa, FiDi) I had a schedule that got me to a gym at 5am, the office at 7am, and back on Bart before 4pm. I can't remember the last time I was in SF after dark. Walking the city at 5-7am is like wandering the aftermath of a war zone. It's sleepy, but the overnight destruction and misfortune was on display.
That said, all the talk of crime here feels slightly premature -- the linked story doesn't clarify whether he was the victim of a random attack or by someone known to him.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/05/technology/cash-app-found...
(Trying to just be sad about his loss and not angry at what San Francisco has become, but it's hard.)
From tweets it appears that he had moved to Miami, came back to SF on a work trip for a day - and this happened.
Many cities with high homicide rates have them specifically because of gang activities and they don’t have any relevance to regular citizens.
Additionally, gun friendly states with “stand your ground” laws will have higher homicide rates just from self defense in robberies.
Tldr; homicide rate is meaningless to how safe you are as a bystander.
There was a notable SF->Miami exodus during COVID, we don't need to attribute reasoning we don't know here.
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/mill-valley-man-kille...
Additionally, if you search through Jake Shield's Twitter feed, you'll find instances where Bob Lee talked to him. [3][4]
UPDATE: Jake Shields confirms it was Bob Lee. [5]
[1] https://twitter.com/jakeshieldsajj/status/164344881917319577...
[2] https://twitter.com/jakeshieldsajj/status/164346184739026124...
[3] https://twitter.com/crazybob/status/1538245201734406144?s=20
[4] https://twitter.com/crazybob/status/1587914051715227652?s=20
[5] https://twitter.com/jakeshieldsajj/status/164347000156601548...
Edit: looks legit based on other new comments.
Still, though, these comments here are an absolute dumpster fire, and until there is more information, I don't think stories like this produce any sort of insightful/curious discussion, so thanks for flagging.
> Joshua Goldbard, the CEO of MobileCoin sent the following statement to ABC7 News: "Bob was a force of nature. Helped to birth Android and CashApp into our world. Moby was his dream: a privacy protecting wallet for the 21st Century. I will miss him every day."
The shameless plug for "Moby" does bother me.
Sad day for the community.
I think the gun was probably a toy, but the only reason I think that is because he didn't fire it. It was small, but gunmetal colored and realistic. Now, I feel like I could have just as easily been Bob Lee, and my kids could have just as easily lost their father. For nothing more than flying in for a weekend and walking along a main thoroughfare.
It seems like this story is completely unremarkable in SF. Nobody in the vicinity seemed to care what was happening to me. It was obvious there was no point in calling 911 to report this. Apparently it's just normal that you take your life into your hands walking along Market Street, and some resident mentally ill guy might decide to end you because he doesn't like your face.
I think you may be correct! Feels right out of black mirror/etc
And you could get dark real quick when you realize that for many a dead doordasher is a statistic, but a dead rich man is a tragedy.
(Even if all above is true, it still would sicken me)
People may not like it, but reality isn't some idealized abstract notion. Knowing what is good requires you to look carefully at what is.
"Rather then the innocent being killed, the person who did the assault would be killed. This is preferable."
You chose to interpret this as a very different claim. Yes, an effective good police force and a population that doesn't assault others is essential. There is not one single part of a solution that should stand alone.
I stand by my above truth claim. Don't put other words into my mouth.
Your quoted text is also not what you posted.
This is assault and must not be tolerated. I do not know your inner feelings and I do not know if the gun is fake or even loaded. It is still assault. If you think an ill/troubled person is not capable of being out in society then they need to be locked up or kept under supervision.
I find your take to be relatively sociopathic and bloodthirsty. It doesn't sound like it makes for a good society to live in. It kinda sounds like Somalia or something.
I would love to see statistics on the number of assaults that were stopped because the defender had a gun.
Texas has a higher gun HOMICIDE rate than California, per-capita, btw. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/firearm_mortality/...
Unsure what you're really trying to solve!
I know this is anecdata, I know the article we're discussing lends itself to these kinds of stories, and I know there're a lot of positives in SF, too; but there comes a point at which the negatives outweigh the positives by severity, regardless of relative quantity. SF is past that point for me.
Social cohesion breaks down near congested roads
You can tell if you are in one of those areas by asking yourself Would you let your young child move through this area unattended? If not - you're in an area built for cars first and not for you as a pedestrian
The only time I got sketched out was when I was walking up Filmore St. near the McDonalds. Some caricature looking fella started calling me ching chong trying to mess with me. I crossed the street before crossing the light and just walked on the other side pretending that didn't hear anything (earbuds) while keeping an eye on him.
I always thought that I can go anywhere I want after growing up and living around slums in the third world at that time but every place has its own unique set of dangers.
Instead every time at least in NYC when you hear about someone killing an elderly Asian, turns out they had like 20+ priors, including some violent misdemeanors, which are often quite serious. No one wants to put people in jail for stealing a loaf of bread (a straw man that often comes out) but if repeat violent offenders keep committing more violent crimes, maybe we actually need to keep them in prison longer?
Why are people such bleeding hearts for repeat violent offenders?
Fucking shithole of a city. In the last 10 years every time I am there I can't help but wonder HOW??? How can such rich city with so much potential be turning into this?? I grew up in east Europe, in general few places in US trigger my prep for fight or flight.. SF you are having a nice conversation, walk wrong way 50meters and suddenly my heart goes to 170bpm. I started carrying a collapsible baton last time I had to stay there for business. SF is going full Detroit, 100% self inflicted.
(To say nothing of the desirability of such a law - just as a FYI)
The most compelling one to me is that the cities that applied this theory and the ones that didn’t saw similar decrease in crime suggesting an overall downward trend that couldn’t be attributed to this theory. That’s basically an A/B test at scale that fails to find anything.
Also:
> Baltimore criminologist Ralph B. Taylor argues in his book that fixing windows is only a partial and short-term solution. His data supports a materialist view: changes in levels of physical decay, superficial social disorder, and racial composition do not lead to higher crime, but economic decline does. He contends that the example shows that real, long-term reductions in crime require that urban politicians, businesses, and community leaders work together to improve the economic fortunes of residents in high-crime areas.
That sounds like the theory has cause and effect reversed and treating the effect does not actually address the underlying cause. If your wood beam is rotting, a fresh coat of paint can help but at some point it will collapse.
> In the winter 2006 edition of the University of Chicago Law Review, Bernard Harcourt and Jens Ludwig looked at the later Department of Housing and Urban Development program that rehoused inner-city project tenants in New York into more-orderly neighborhoods.[25] The broken windows theory would suggest that these tenants would commit less crime once moved because of the more stable conditions on the streets. However, Harcourt and Ludwig found that the tenants continued to commit crime at the same rate.
Oh look, another controlled A/B experiment that fails to validate anything.
> In his 2012 book Uncontrolled: The Surprising Payoff of Trial-and-Error for Business, Politics, and Society, Jim Manzi writes that of the randomized field trials conducted in criminology, only nuisance abatement per broken windows theory has been successfully replicated
So the only thing we can link it to is nuisance calls. All that work and hassling for a super minor win.
It’s impossible to scientifically prove something but there’s enough holes to indicate that this theory provides an exceedingly poor model for crime. It’s also easy to consider a hypothetical scenario where one person or a small group of people steals all the money in the neighborhood such that everyone is poor and can barely feed themselves, if that. The poor now need to steal and commit crimes to feed themselves and their families and cause disorder by using drugs too try to escape their situation / self-medicate. Would broken windows policing actually accomplish anything when the root cause is that the money was stolen from the area?
It's a short jump to actually stabbing someone.
This wasn't some kind of hitman assassination.
>Occam's razor is a safe starting point for this situation.
The simplest explanation is he wasn't targeted and it was just a random mugging where he didnt want to hand over a few $1000s in belongings under the threat of violence?
But yes, it is absolutely the most likely occurrence that an obviously wealthy exec, an older man, was an easy mark for a random mugging gone wrong at the wee hours than some crypto bro plotted an assassination.
"Mugging gone wrong, someone got stabbed" is a very, very common situation. Also note that he lived to receive initial aid and perished on the way to the hospital - it's not like he was shot and stuffed in a car trunk.
Case closed, mugging. Occam's razor.
Just saying. It’s not clear to me the kind of personality that uses the threat of a weapon but it’s not going to be your average thief / shoplifter. I’m not saying it’s a hit man assassination but it could be a gang member (violence is escalated there) or a gang initiation (severe violence is a hallmark). My coworker got mugged in Austin and beaten up extremely bad. I believe the police found the people and it was a gang initiation.
A shoplifter ideally wants to snatch and go. They are in the business of fleeing, partially because they know they won't be confronted. The most likely outcome is that they have someone shout at them or maybe get pushed.
The mugger is not this situation. The mugger has to give someone a reason to comply - that means a threat of violence. The mugger doesn't want to use that threat (they want the stuff) but they need the threat and need to be perceived as serious. Often muggers are new to criminality so they are jumpy, irrational and likely to accidentally apply violence.
Among concealed carriers, one of the hot topics is the situation of an armed mugging. While the mugger doesn't want to harm you, the risk of accidental harm is very real and muggings "fail" and end up as stabbings/shootings all the time. No small amount of time is wasted discussing how concealed carriers should respond to this threat - and I'll let you youtube your own security footage of this happening.
The gang situation is an unfortunate one. I'm sorry your coworker had that happen to them, and it's been a growing issue in Austin.
Anyway, I was trying to show that the broken windows theory is flawed. The broken windows theory suggests that if you stop shoplifting and other trivial crimes it’ll also prevent more violent crimes. That’s unlikely to be the case and the research done so far has not found any supporting evidence for this theory.
You are incorrect. Research is favorable with caveats:
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/002242781557657...
You may be conflating it with a VERY misreported meta analysis, the 2019 Daniel T O'Brien et al. which found BWT theory does not impact *mental health* of a neighborhood. He also normalized for SES which BWT is probably a direct predictor of (basically social funding).
> The mugger was not using a weapon.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/251914/number-of-robberi...
If you get mugged, that mugger almost certainly has a weapon. That you saw the exception does not alter the stats.
You are right. Nothing in the report points to the demographic being blamed in the majority of comments. It could be a person in his circle, a stalker, or even a rich drug dealer that stabbed this guy.
Non-premeditated street crime is generally among the least of the dangers a crypto industry exec is exposed to. Pinning it on the homeless is a bit premature.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/pictures/murder-map-deadliest-u-...
If you read the article, you'll find that SF is a dangerous city in which someone was just senselessly murdered.
If we think logically about what allows property crimes to remain high in one city vs another, a couple things come to mind:
1. A higher poverty/homelessness rate leading to people resorting to property crimes 2. A higher repeat offender rate if the DA of that city chooses not to prosecute/press charges against many of those who commit that crime
For factor #1, this would be remedied by tackling the causes of persistent homelessness with things like Housing First initiatives to house people dealing with those conditions, and to also give them medical assistance since a good chunk of them are dealing with mental illnesses.
For factor #2, this seems like it would be a simple case of the DA needing to be more aggressive in prosecuting property crime perpetrators to both deter the act and to keep them off the streets to begin with. The SF DA office is particularly known for being too loose with this, unsurprisingly.
I'm by no means a crime expert or a lawyer, but this is what seems like is going on at face value.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...
Everything and - most of all everyone - else can get ffed.
As long as I get my share I don’t care
/s
But it seems that I struck a nerve: that ‘nest egg’ is at the detriment to other people, exactly my point. The homeless pay the price for your nest egg.
The disdain for poor people is dripping from your reply. Yet you have much more in common with the homeless than with the people who pay you. You will be used and discarded as we see happening and who knows where you will end up…
A "nest egg" means "having a bit saved up" so one might have some economic security. Again, what does that have to do with the homeless?
I pointed out that cities - taking London as an example - are unaffordable to people who do not have a high salary. Yet for some reason you are attacking me for...having a high salary?
This has a bit of relevant data
All anecdotal: I believe many, like me, that are claiming the decline in safety are actually living here. I've been here since 2010, FWIW (not saying that is long, but long enough to see changes, IMO). When I first got here, I remember seeing someone shoot up in an alley. I remember a drunk or drugged man smashing his head into the window of a bus. But, against the expectation that I would become assimilated and desensitized over time, I am more shocked now. The last time I went to the TL (six months ago), I was actually scared, and vowed not to return without good reason. I wish I could point to a single thing. Maybe it was the needles strewn, the folks dazed and walking into traffic, the knocked out folks on the sidewalk; it felt lawless. Maybe I'm getting older and scare more easily, that's also a possibility.
I left >4 years ago and am never coming back. It's unfixable.
Let's move the tech industry somewhere that isn't rotten to the core.
Since SF has some of the worst governance in the country, maybe it won't last that long. There's always East Bay.
If by East Bay you mean Oakland and its denizens, I don't see it happening. Oakland+Berkeley local govt makes SF appear very startup friendly.
I've heard it as LaMorinda - Lafayette, Moraga, & Orinda
Pick a city who wants to get the money and has fewer NIMBYs and has space to build. Move one office there and incentivize who wants to be there
This is how it was in the "good old days" with factories, no? But instead of IceRock, WI it will be a place close to the valley
But sometimes companies are lazy for places that don't have avocado toast I guess.
Of course, none of this causes drug addiction and mental illness.
The massive wealth brought by the tech industry could easily allow abundance. But when it’s impossible to build anything, it doesn’t matter how much money is raised via taxing that wealth, it just goes everywhere OTHER than building housing, which is needed desperately for lower income folk there and working class folk who do the work in healthcare.
A fixed amount of housing will just get bid up and up and up into the stratosphere. And for the progressive Boomer types who bought into the market decades ago and are now sitting on multimillion dollar property valuations, they will support any measure other than one which increases supply in a way that could reduce their property values (see Robert Reich). It’s a recipe for misery.
And Robert Reich is why I think that concern about inequality is not actually a productive route to fixing the problem. He’s one of THE greatest voices decrying inequality (and in the past I really agreed with a lot he had to say), and when push came to shove, he opposed new housing in his area (Berkeley) which could’ve threatened his household wealth. Be concerned about “community voice” and the power of existing homeowners (which in SF means millionaires or more) to oppose building housing.
Question those who question—under the guise of progressive (or conservative) goals—the creation of abundance. “Sure, you’re creating greater overall wealth that will help the vast majority of people, but the wrong people get most of the benefit.”
I cannot agree with you more on this point. The whole history of capitalism and all it depends on (rule of law, strong private property rights, laissez-faire economic policies) has been one of a rising tide lifting all boats.
Now in the developed world, material wealth has gotten to such a level that people in power are much more keen on divvying up the pie as they see fit than baking more pie. People have gotten myopic on this topic because they see more wealth than ever before; they question why we need to create more wealth, instead of spreading the existing wealth around? And that leads to precisely the kind of thinking you underlined: a further rising tide is bad, if some people end up in bigger yachts.
"High wages" are not the issue, inequality is, and the largest contributor to that are low wages.
We should be fighting poverty, not aiming at the middle class to earn less.
Why the shift? Is your problem that Musk is much richer than the 1% (inequality), or is it that there are people without anything at all?
I get the sense that people in HN believe that most tech workers in the Bay Area are some sort of high rolling millionaires. They mostly are not, and the proof is that most are priced out of housing in SF too.
Saying that inequality is caused by tech workers is thus a myopic statement.
Everyone else: "SF is full of lefty commies".
Let's appreciate the...irony? Cognitive dissonance? Misunderstanding? I don't even know what it is.
It was bad then and pandemic made it worse.
So many closed shops on Market St/Union Square area.
Walk a few blocks West and Tenderloin looks like doomsday. Lines for soup kitchens, tents, drugged-up and mentally-ill people walking like Zombies.
but the last time i went there, just before the pandemic, it was just... horrible. within 1h of leaving my hotel, i saw a guy breaking into a car. a block later, two homeless people were arguing and then started beating each other to a pulp.
and no police officers around anywhere.
It's especially bad considering SF's year round mild weather.
The areas where it doesn’t usually get as hot get bitterly cold in the winter.
Implied is that you didn't do anything about either of these things you witnessed. I don't mean to single you out, but collectively for the people of the city: wouldn't it be better if you stopped expecting somebody else to fix the problems? Instead, be part of a better community by trying to right what wrongs you can. At the very least, photograph the thief and send it to the police, if not trying to stop him yourself. Similar for the fighting homeless people.
Yeah, maybe that's dangerous. I don't want to start the conversation of Californians trying so hard to give up their right to self defense. But maybe that's the reason we don't see such a big problem in, e.g., Texas.
Most pay taxes, sometimes very high taxes. And, San Franciscans have voted to have someone else fix the issue.
The citizens gave the monopoly of violence to the government, so citizens would be safe. The government has stopped protecting its citizens and their property. The social contract is broken.
Now they are where they are.
But although the SFans made a deal with the devil, there's no reason they can't go back and change that. It's not written in blood, they still can go take back their community themselves.
They leave. Gone. Poof.
For something to turn around, you have to make an investment (money/time). People with money and means are going to invest elsewhere especially since they don't really have a true community to defend. They started as transients, remember that. No generations of family. No roots.
As per other comments, the police won't act on it and if they do the DA won't and even when all this happens they get let go of easily and come back for more. Lots of these people are repeat offenders.
The local SF TV streamers and memers should re-broadcast Charles Bronson's "Death Wish" movies. Perhaps doing so will inspire civic responsibility in SFans! IIRC there's even a bit of drone technology in one of the later movies.8-))
>"At the very least, photograph the thief and send it to the police, if not trying to stop him yourself."<
is the very definition of "foolhardy".
Sibling mentioned contacting the police and got no good response.
Union Square is uncomfortably close to the TL.
Austin has rich cultural background that is different. Moving to Austin won't change it into SF unless enough people bring failed ideas with them.
> Hippie Hollow Park (originally known as McGregor County Park) is a park located on the shore of Lake Travis in northwest Austin. It is the only legally recognized clothing-optional public park in the State of Texas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hippie_Hollow_Park
If you're going to Austin to escape a lefty culture on the west coast, then you've probably found the exact worst city in Texas to do so.
It is specifically the decision to keep housing close to zero-sum that makes this such a catastrophe. SF isn’t the only place that would make that decision, but is also possible to welcome & accommodate growth rather than trying to strangle it at the expense of all your renters.
Seattle is very under appreciated imo. The pandemic didn’t do it any favors but it’s more affordable than the eastside suburbs with all the things you’d want from a city plus access to nature. Not everywhere is 3rd and Pike.
I have family out in Idaho, and they complain that there a lot of folks from California moving there and screwing up the local politics by voting for policies that broke the state of California. They joke that the first thing people do is change their plates because they don't want anyone to know they're from Cali. I can't blame them, though, because it is an absolute train-wreck of a state whose condition is epitomized by SanFran.
It’s just easier to see in SF because the elements are far less likely to kill you here and we’ve decriminalized homelessness.
I'm not saying that's a problem unique to SF, but SF can solve it without fixing the political issues that affect the rest of the country.
Plus they have a sweet setup since they're the 18th-most dependent state on Federal aid, so they'll glad take money from train-wreck states like California, they just don't want the people.
You're begging the question. Reasonable, empathetic people are capable of thinking that "gender-affirming care" is an ideologically-driven phenomenon that does more harm than good.
> Plus they have a sweet setup since they're the 18th-most dependent state on Federal aid
Do you feel the same way about Virginia (second highest per capita federal balance of payments), New Mexico (4th), or Maine (9th)? They're all blue states that receive a lot more from the federal government than they pay in.
Do you also feel the same way about high income earners paying more than they get back? Because effectively that's what you're describing. California has a lot of high incomes and because the federal government does a lot of redistributing via taxation, the state as a whole pays more than it gets back. Though if you look at the per capita data[0], it works out to a few hundred bucks a year. It's also worth mentioning that since Covid, every single state has received more than it paid, and in aggregate California the most by far (which makes sense, since it's the most populous state). So California too has a sweet setup.
Implicit behind your sentiment is the idea that the "train-wreck" policies in California is causative of the high incomes that has it pay more than it gets back from the federal government. That is, your argument paraphrased is that conservative Idahoans can't criticize progressive Californians since California with its progressive policies has high incomes that pay for some of Idaho's bills via redistributed federal taxation. I find that assumption unpersuasive.
[0]: https://rockinst.org/issue-areas/fiscal-analysis/balance-of-...
Reasonable, empathetic people who have no experience with an issue personally should mind their own damn business regarding other people's medical decisions, especially when they themselves are actually, demonstrably (not suspectedly) ideologically motivated.
Sorry, kids don't get to make medical decisions and adults don't get to make harmful decisions for them. Your rant is borderline suited to an adult, and no one else. Last, imagine couching anti-child castration and mutilation as "ideological". Competent adults label this position to as sanity.
No one is castrating children. These are medically accepted practices and you are not a practicing physician and making that comparison is unhinged.
Also, plenty of babies are sexually altered when their sex is undeterminable would you advocate not doing that?
Leave medicine to physicians and their patients and stop putting your ideology and religion and gender anxiety on kids that aren't yours.
Actually, adults that are the parents of children get to make all sorts of decisions for children, harmful and not harmful. It's literally none of your business.
I believe exposing children to organized religion is inherently harmful because it inhibits the development of a scientific, evidence-based temperament that I think is an important part of good moral character. Yet billions of people drag their children to churches, mosques and temples every day.
I saw a lot of push and propaganda in schools to subvert this setup, for my kids in the name of ideology. This is now the #1 issue for me to push back on. Just a single data point.
edit, responding to below:
By "heavy advertising" do you mean letting kids know it is a thing that exists? Because that's just teaching kids the facts of life, something schools have a responsibility to do (since apparently you're not willing to tell your kids that medical transition exists?) It falls under the same bucket as sex education, another thing that schools should do regardless of whether the parents think it's OK or not.
Schools don't make medical decisions, doctors do.
edit 2:
MEDICAL transition.
Relevant quote:
===
Even though the policy states that “the goal in all cases is to strive for consensus between parents/guardians and student as to the application of this policy,” it adds that the decision to participate in the “gender transition plan” belongs to the student, and “does not require additional parent/guardian consent”—unless parental/guardian rights under the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA), or other applicable law, would be implicated.
===[0] https://www.ntd.com/parents-and-legal-guardians-excluded-fro...
"Schools transitioning children" is not a coherent phrase. "Transition" in the gender sense is not a transitive verb; transition is not something done to someone by others, is something that person does themselves.
First, that anyone not agreeing with your position is actually and demonstrably ideologically motivated. It may be one of the surest signs that your position is not based on reason, when you perceive it to be so blindingly clear that anyone disagreeing must have an ulterior motive. There's another commenter who said that the only way anyone could oppose their position is through stupidity, which is along the same vein.
Second, that people should mind their own damn business. I agree with this on principle, but it does have its limits. Am I wrong to be concerned about and disapproving of the practice of female genital mutilation in parts of the world? After all, it doesn't directly affect me one bit. I suppose you might consider me a cultural imperialist for thinking it a barbaric practice. Should I equally mind my own business if I see a neighbor routinely take opiates to the point of stupor? That's his medical decision, and one that I have no experience with personally.
At some point, the line between well-meaning non-judgmentalism and craven indifference is blurred. I want to help repair the social fabric in this country because I feel it is torn and tattered. The way to do that is through open dialogue on what I think is right and wrong. I can admit that this can be taken too far, and has been in the past on many matters. What you suggest is that I keep it to myself and don't condemn others, no matter what I see, because everyone walks in their own pair of shoes. I'm not convinced that this is the better way; at least one that doesn't end up in a world where everyone only cares about themselves.
To put another way: can you imagine a fast-spreading, medically-involved phenomenon that affects minors in the long term that you would be concerned about, even if you had no personal experience with it? Or is such a thing not possible in your view?
I said that the people who were doing were demonstrably ideologically motivated. This is because it is true and evidenced. This has nothing to do with how I feel.
> Am I wrong to be concerned about and disapproving of the practice of female genital mutilation in parts of the world?
Is FGM a medically accepted practice? No? Then it has no relevance to this discussion.
> At some point, the line between well-meaning non-judgmentalism and craven indifference is blurred.
This is ideologically motivated people advocating that politicians and laypeople legislate medical decision making that should be between a doctor and his patient and their guardians. Whatever else is drummed up by comparing it to barbaric practices ask yourself this: would you want a politician telling you what is medically appropriate for your child?
The only way it is possible for a reasonable, empathetic person to believe that the state government banning GAC is good, is if they're stupid. Which is ok to some degree, many people are stupid.
I oppose gender affirming care on the grounds that it does not effectively improve a person's life (which we can see over a 30 year period in [0]) and that it often requires damaging the delicate balance of the biological machine that is the human body.
If that makes me "stupid", so be it.
[0] https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal... [1] https://www.thetrevorproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/... << Warning, PDF.
Next question?
HRT vs lithium? Dunno, I'm not a doctor.
I do know that exogenous hormones can cause a body to stop producing the hormone, even at sub-clinical levels.
I also know that GAC surgeries cannot be undone. But you can stop taking lithium.
And all of this in the face of 40+% suicide rate that isn't affected by GAC in the slightest.
Who is the ideological one here?
edit: I'm going to say this very slowly:
The Sweden study
about suicide rates
was done in a time
when the Swedish government
mandated sterilization
for trans people.
Does that help?
edit 2: since it's still not clear:
The
Sweden
study
about
suicide rates
was done
in a time
when
the Swedish government
mandated
sterilization
for
trans people.
And the Trevor Project report shows a number of interventions that provide statistically significant reduction in suicidal ideation and attempts. I assume you support those interventions, since you seem extremely considered with the suicide rates of LGBTQ youth.
It does say:
>Affirming gender identity among transgender and nonbinary youth is consistently associated with lower rates of suicide attempts.
And the report actually says nothing about transition healthcare.
That's crazy, my trans masc friend Kyle just carried a baby to term and delivered it, but to be fair I can't 100% confirm he didn't just hide a frozen turkey under his cardigan for 9 months
edit: responding to prottog:
> gender dysphoria was classified a mental illness [...] It's only very recently that with the former we started to take the (mentally unwell) patient's word over evidence.
You're the one begging the question now.
If gender dysphoria really is a mental illness, why are regret rates for gender-affirming care so low? One of the defining characteristics of a mental illness is that if you "feed into it", it gets worse. For example, with schizophrenia, you should not validate the voices someone might be hearing because doing so makes it worse. The situation with gender dysphoria is exactly the opposite.
As recently as ten years ago, with DSM-5, gender dysphoria was classified a mental illness, much like how anorexia is still classified as one. It's only very recently that with the former we started to take the (mentally unwell) patient's word over evidence.
Doctors used to say that cigarettes were good for you. I suspect that we'll look back at gender-affirming care the same way in a few decades.
Do your suspicions in this instance merit an intervention in care for other people? At what point do your 'feelings' matter so much that you get to tell other people what to do medically with their own children? Apply this in an inverse fashion -- at what point do other people who suspect doctors are not right get to tell you how to make medical decision regarding your children?
Let's compare how many times Doctors as a group have been wrong about something vs Politicians. Are you still for Politicians making medical decisions for people?
Quite a straw man you built there! I hold no such opinion.
> Reasonable, empathetic people are capable of thinking that "gender-affirming care" is an ideologically-driven phenomenon
No reasonable, empathetic people that are in any genuine contact with trans kids are likely to feel this way, considering suicide rates and mental health outcomes of gender-affirming healthcare.
>Do you feel the same way about Virginia (second highest per capita federal balance of payments), New Mexico (4th), or Maine (9th)?
Are people from those states voicing the opinion that their states are well-function oases relative to the "train-wreck" that is California? I haven't heard much of it. Yet it's pretty common for red-state folks to rag on California as if their welfare governments aren't benefiting from our homofemitrans tax dollars.
>in aggregate
lol, this is a profoundly unserious point
Is it so wrong for people to want to be left alone? We're talking a minority (which was the majority not too long ago) wanting to be left to their social and religious moors. The whole political mess in the US is driven by a clash of ideologies.
> don't be a trans kid since the state government just barely averted banning appropriate healthcare for teenagers
Case in point: many people in the United States disagree with surgically altering minors' genitalia, for whatever reason. And they'd prefer such policies to not be implemented where they live. This is part of the "please, just leave me alone" attitude.
More relevant to this topic (crime in SF): many people in the United States would prefer for crime to actually be punished, with punishments that are actually effective. Making it legal to loot up to 1000 USD in merch isn't going to deter crime, it does the opposite. Because the law is cancerous at this point, honest business ventures are closing up shop. People in other states see the cancer and (rightly, I think) say they don't want any part of it.
Not really. When you actually analyze the situation what you have is a bunch of folks who would like to just live their lives (you know, people who are gay, or non-white, or female.)
But there are some people who are upset by this, and want to stop it, who treat it like some battle for the soul of the Nation. They go out of their way to persecute and abuse other people for no reason other than they don't like them. Mostly they are members of various weird quasi-Christian religions.
So it's not really a "clash of ideologies" so much as it is attacks by radical religious people on anybody and everybody that won't toe their religeous/ideological belief systems.
This is coming from someone who has never lived in SF.
$3m dollar homes, extremely high office rents, wasted energy and time on commuting, higher comp expenses, smaller hiring pool. Even if centralization/in-person is more efficient, likely not efficient to enough to overcome these economics.
The businesses that learn how to maneuver in a decentralized/online first manner have huge starting advantages over those that don't. Though, we will see in time.
It's possible the centralization gap will be much smaller in cities that choose to meet demand for housing/office/amenities.
More than one phone prototype can be made and shipped to different branch offices, for example. Do you need the entire company working off one hardware prototype? Is that even a practical way to iterate? Not really. It's only the more bespoke/expensive hardware that is more difficult to distribute.
But software employment is currently much larger percentage of the IT workforce anyway
That was also the last great opportunity to buy a home there too.
A "safe" SF only existed for about 20 years total.
"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown"
The recent increase in violent crime in SF is still lower than any period in the 00s or 10s except the three-year window from 2009-2011.
FWIW, where I live (outside Austin, but I don't think that's specifically relevant), as you predict, I don't feel that everyone just understands exactly what my job is. On the other hand, I do feel like people are curious and eager to learn. I find (I know, just one datapoint) that whether I'm talking to somebody from our local semiconductor industry or a lifelong Texas rancher, there's some respect for the idea that we prosper by being a community from all walks of life.
ETA: I'm not necessarily talking about any kind of "protected class" of race/gender/whatever. I mean people that are rich and poor, Christian and Buddhist and atheist and whatever, techies and ranchers and oilmen, and so forth. In other words, people who really have different ways of interacting with the world, not just skin deep.
Perhaps, but after years of you being the person who is not valued, precisely because you are 'diverse', the idea of a homogenous group is likely appealing. I don't quite count myself in there, but I do live in a rural area, and there aren't as many people in software as there are in other industries. I don't particularly get the sense that people who don't know what I do care to learn or are all that curious, on the whole.
Zoom and FaceTime won’t replicate this. The question is whether AR and VR can come close within 10 years?
I fixed this in response to Green Man's comment.
I'm sorry, I'm sure this was an innocent typo, but seeing a "tech bro" mythologize the midwest and then misspell Oklahoma is just too funny. You realize OKC has a higher violent crime rate than SF right?
Oklahoma had the highest incarceration rate in the United States (or the world if you compared it to other countries). Most of the people in prison there are in for drug crimes.
I just think it's so bizarre watching people act as if Oklahoma of all places is a beacon of rational governance and domestic tranquility.
(Source: I grew up there and it's no different from most other places in the country. Our country's problems are dispersed fairly homogeneously. The opioid crisis is not limited to cities and neither is homelessness)
Pretty much every midwestern city of any size is violent as fuck. STL, KC, Indy, Chicago, OKC, all are so much scarier than San Francisco.
Suburbanites are insulated by 20 miles of highway from the problematic areas and can't even fathom what it's like-- the talking heads on their TV are more real to them than whatever is happening in the inner city. But even then their kids are popping xanax and getting DUIs. They just have a better support system and can continue functioning in society instead of getting locked up. In rural areas too, there's so much drug crime and violent crime.
The unfortunate part is that our anti-poor propaganda works flawlessly even on the conventionally "smart" as we can see in threads like these.
So people see all that a city has to offer when they go to SF, while they'll never set foot in East New York.
NYC is a great example. Was a dump until Giuliani came in and became the gold standard city when Bloomberg took over for 12 years. He called himself a Democrat at the end, but they all hated him because he was pragmatic and got shit done. There was a tension there though and it worked out well.
DeBlasio came in and almost immediately things started to turn. As SF has consolidated power it has just fell off the deep end. Chicago has this story going for 50 years.
Progressives ran these places in the 70’s and 80’s and they went moderate in the 90’s and 00’s mainly. Progressive last 10 or so years and they’re dying again.
We also just had covid and are currently in an economic crisis. Why wouldn't this have more effect on crime
Rudolph W. Giuliani 1994-2001
Shouldn't the crime rate in 2000 be lower than today? He wasn't a progressive, he followed the broken window theory, cracked down on small crimes, blah blah evidence.
You think crime is bad in nyc because of a campaign by Republicans/conservatives to make cities look bad combined with an actual recent hike in crime probably due to Covid causing layoffs in the service sector and now inflation
Red states are the poorest states in the country. They have more murders and other crime than blue states.
Just because you hide deep poverty and drug abuse behind gutted-out, falling down houses, doesn't mean it doesn't exist
> every midwestern city of any size is violent as fuck. STL, KC, Indy, Chicago, OKC
If there's nothing there, why are they so violent? Answer: they really aren't. If you've lived in a midwestern city you'd know that there are areas that have more violence (like probably any city) than others, but I would wager that proportionally they're much smaller compared to outlying metro areas than larger cities.
Most of that time in both cities was in business and/or tourist districts. There are pockets of Chicago I would definitely avoid, but the core felt safe. In SF, the core does not feel safe.
At least in the Midwest the thugs have the courtesy to congregate in known bad areas.
I don’t have a mythologized impression of the Midwest. I spent a lot of time working in emergency services in one of Ohio’s poorest counties before moving on.
I am familiar on a first person basis with the Columbus metro’s problems at a minimum. No, I don’t think New Albany or Upper Arlington are representative.
If society thought of housing similarly to other large purchases like cars in that there was no expectation of profit, we would all be a lot better off.
Now what caused this housing as investment idea? I haven’t seen any research on this, but my guess would be as a form of forced retirement savings as it allows people to build net worth without the self-control normally required of saving. And the difficulty of that delayed gratification is really just human nature.
And you don't get margin called.
150x leverage means 150x cashflow burden from taxation (> 100%!) and also maintenance costs of the property.
See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35044028 where I laid out how a real estate purchase is really a mix of multiple investments packaged into one sale.
To what extent the crime policies contribute statistically I don't know, but for some of the more extreme mental illness cases (that disproportionately account for homeless people being actively aggressive), there is a disconnect between philosophical ideals and what practically would be better for everyone in the long run. Mental illness (especially when substance abuse is involved) can make someone resist help and they will be unlikely to improve unless they are forced into a facility. Where the line is for doing this is a tough question but if someone is routinely threatening people on the street or does something violent, it seems like SF policy is still opposed to it.
I don't think people realize how much of an outlier SF is. Incomes are a good 25% or so higher than NYC and Boston. The percentage of the people who work in tech in SF isn't really comparably to any other city and their own high paying industries.
I think the problems with SF are largely cultural and political rather than technological or economic, though the economic issues are exacerbating it. It's an "anything goes" city and has been for 150+ years. The city values your ability to express yourself in any way you please, and that includes both healthy forms like street fairs, neighborhood scavenger hunts, or Bring Your Own Big Wheel, and less-healthy forms like being able to shit on the sidewalk when you please or stab someone who looks at you funny. And that filters down to the voting preferences of the electorate. You get what you ask for.
The South Bay has all the same problems of tech dominance, income inequality, insane housing prices, etc, but the cultural orientation is very different. People in the South Bay are generally there to work hard and build a better life for themselves and their descendants. Their time-orientation is much more long-term than SF culture. And that applies across the income spectrum - even poor, Hispanic, immigrant day-workers will do their best to make sure their kids do their homework. The type of tech industry that spills out of this also reflects this cultural orientation, with the South Bay doing much more foundational engineering research and SF being more focused on how to apply technical breakthroughs from 50 miles south in new and crazy ways.
Places like Texas, with a property tax and little zoning, would handle a concentration of wealth better. Although, it'd be even more optional with a land tax instead of a property tax.
You're talking about raw communism, whether or not you know it. It is immaterial whether or not land is forcibly taken or the (I assume federal) "land tax" is raised to the degree that no one can afford land except government subsidized high density housing developers. With this being the intent of raising the tax to whatever level it falls.
You may as well just confiscate the land and dispense with the pretense.
Before you begin confiscating land, try proving that inequality issues can be solved with parallel yet less potentially damaging measures. As a test run. For example, begin with educational outcomes. What have been the quantitative results of massive funding toward eliminating educational inequality? Metros like DC have some of the highest per student public school funds in the Nation.
The housing parallel is the failed social history of high density urban "projects". Which no one likes to live in nor to be around. And which have been a disaster for urban areas, with few exceptions.
Explain how government forced divestment from single family private land ownership is capitalism. Other than communism, you seem to be thinking of a potential action inherent within fascism.
Singapore - https://stackedhomes.com/editorial/land-ownership-in-singapo...
Hong Kong - https://www.landsd.gov.hk/en/resources/land-info-stat/land-t...
Some of this might have been because of the impression Georgism had on some of the Chinese revolutionaries, including Sun Yat-Sen himself:
https://taiwantoday.tw/news.php?unit=8&post=13799&unitname=E...
It's also because, by coincidence, U.S. State Department official Wolf Ladejinsky was influenced by Georgism. He was certainly no fan of communism, as he was a Ukrainian refugee from Bolshevik rule!
https://www.reddit.com/r/georgism/comments/10uzddk/the_georg...
Incidentally, while Taiwan does not have exclusive government ownership of land unlike Singapore, Hong Kong, or mainland China, it is a very successful example of land reform (which involved confiscation):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reform_in_Taiwan
https://asianometry.substack.com/p/how-the-kmt-achieved-land...
https://cooperative-individualism.org/medaille-john_taiwan-a...
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23211692
In fact it would be foolish to buy property in such a market unless you are rich or something limits tax increases.
We had affordable housing in California in the past without any pie-in-the-sky stuff like land-value taxes.
So don't dismiss that tech workers are a proximate cause here.
Of course, when you bring up Manhattanizing Mission, most of these "YIMBY" astro-turf types start screeching. They want theirs, and as soon as they get it they'll be pulling up the ladder behind them. But keep your filthy mittens off the Mission.
> Today's outrageous prices are exactly in line with the 6.6% trend that began 60 years ago.
https://experimental-geography.blogspot.com/2016/05/employme...
For another, look at the history of the city, we have been a nut house for ~150 years, since the gold was discovered. We had an Emperor! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Norton
It's pretty obvious on the ground in SF that the homeless problem is fundamentally a problem of mental illness and drug abuse. A fairly large portion of the homeless there are not from SF but came there because SF tolerates behavior other cities do not. Even if there was an empty, free house offered to every homeless person in SF there would still be a massive problem because many of them would be unwilling to accept it.
The foundation of safe cities is vibrant local communities with historic roots. Parts of the city where people choose to have and raise kids. Places with a sense of shared community where neighbors look out for each other.
The rapid influx of extremely high income individuals transformed SF over the course of the last decade. Uprooting those communities and replacing them with largely transient techworkers with no real interest in forming communities that don't help them to increase their TC and level up with their next new role.
Then when tech declines you really see the impact this has.
SF was treated as basically a luxury mall for rich tech workers to get whatever they want whenever they want. As tech workers start to leave it's no wonder the city feels like an abandoned mall.
Like Hayes Valley used to be crack dens until Twitter money, Mission District was a Latino ghetto until FB money, and Portrero Hill and West Add were the African American projects. Plus Chinatown and Tenderloin had an active Triad and Vietnamese+Cambodian gang presence.
Now you see upper net worth people living in Hayes Valley, houses in Portrero go for millions, every new grad SWE getting a shithole studio within walking distance of DoLo Park, much of Polk St and northern Tenderloin is now classified as "Lower Nob Hill", and all the Triad members and Viet gangs got caught in the ICE dragnet or retired.
I lived in Potrero hill and Hayes valley in the early 2000s and was no stranger to the mission.
Your comment is completely false.
Americans are entitled to move within the United States. Always have been, always will be. You can keep trying for de facto migration controls all you want, but you will never be able to dial them in to curate exactly the population you want. It will always blow up in your face like this. That’s very, very good and it makes me damn proud to be an American. This isn’t the feudal system. We don’t allocative the best land to the people born on it. It’s insane that this ever became a left-coded position.
This claim isn't backed up by the demographic info of SF [0], and SF has historically been a very diverse, immigrant friendly city.
Percentage of US born (as well as specifically California born) residents of SF started to rise with the tech boom. The lowest number of US born residents of SF was 2000, it rose slightly by 2010 and continued to increase into 2020.
0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_San_Francisco
So I think we agree: tech people came in, attempted to displace the local community and trampled on their values (and claimed them "xenophobic" for resisting).
And now that the tech community is withdrawing what's left is a broken city without the community and shared values that once defined it.
The tech community wanted SF to be a shopping mall for rich tech workers, some parts of the community resisted being turned into a shopping mall, they lost and now SF is rotten.
Trying to approximate these hukou-style controls through building permits is what created displacement - tech people just wanted places to live.
If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.
* https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/firearm_mortality/...
Something aside from “random degeneracy and vagrancy in SF with no leads”?
But two weeks after the report he gets hit? Out of all possible people
Well just posting for posterity, not something I have a strong opinion about
“no” leads seems a bit of a stretch when there are glaringly obvious things to investigate and at least definitely rule out
I'll also think one reason might be because municipalities report to the FBI UCR on a voluntary basis for their reports, and cities don't stand to gain much from reporting very bad numbers.
Cash App founder, a rich 42 year old father of 2, found dead at 2:35 AM, one week after an explosive report accusing his startup of being extensively used for crime and fraud[0].
This is odd.
[0] https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-03-...
Plenty of government in the world kept their citizen safe and getting murdered walking down the street is never a risk factor to those dewellers and they are way worse GDP and even wealth disparity than US.
Lot of people here railing on homeless people - police don’t have any suspects.
As demonstrated by the amount of insane 'actually the murder rate isn't that bad' comments in this thread.
(That is, if you think now's bad, you should've seen it then.)
A city where gangs are killing each other off but never bother normal people will feel much safer than a city where a comparatively few people are killed but it’s from the greater pool of everyone.
That's simply not borne out by the statistics. Long term trends have been steadily down, and even in the short term:
2017-2022 [0]:
* ~9,000 fewer incidents in total.
* Rape halved.
* Robberies 2/3 of 2017.
* Burglary/Motor vehicle theft increased but Larceny theft decreased by more than both combined.
Q1 2017/2023 [0]:
* ~4,000 fewer incidents in total.
* Only Motor vehicle theft and Arson were slightly up on 2017 levels.
Q1 2022/2023 [0]:
* Total incidents down by 9.7%
* Burglary down by 11.2%
* Motor vehicle theft down by 8.5%
* Larceny theft down by 12%
* Assaults did increase by 2.2%
* As did Robberies by 13.6%
[0] https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crim...
Much like other commenters in the thread, I’ve had a man threaten to “cut my mother effing throat” in broad daylight in front of a dozen bystanders. Thankfully, he turned tail once I drew a handgun and no one died that day. Police showed up 45 minutes later and were of no use, so why bother reported the three times I’ve had guns pointed at me in traffic since 2020?
When police response times are at or above the hour mark and the best you’ll get is an “oh that sucks man, need a report for insurance?” people stop reporting crimes. Now the politicians get to pretend crime is “better”.
Putting aside arguments of social responsibility and taking a purely self-interested perspective, it's typically cheaper and more effective to provide for these people than it is to lock them up. When there's nothing to take away, enforcement doesn't provide any deterrent and frequently leads to an escalation of behaviour instead.
It really doesn't seem that complicated to me. Countries that have affordable housing and jobs don't have this problem.
The link between poverty and homelessness, as discussed elsewhere in the thread, is mostly due to policy choices local to SF and California as a whole that greatly disincentivize building more homes to keep up with demand. I come from a country where (with some exaggeration) it feels like an urban park might have higher population density than San Francisco. There's no reason why one of the most desired markets in the world should be that way, other than through artificially restricting the supply.
> Countries that have affordable housing and jobs don't have this problem.
Very few countries, whether housing is cheap or expensive and whether jobs pay well or poorly, have this problem of people strung about, high in public, engaging in antisocial behavior. Most countries don't turn a blind eye towards drug addiction from a personal liberty standpoint, which I think is quite a uniquely American concept. Most will imprison people for possessing or consuming any and punish with death those who traffic. There is broad cultural acceptance of behaving in this way.
Poverty exists, which leads to homelessness.
This is not because of "local SF and California" policies. Homelessness is a problem in nearly every North American cities, from Vancouver to New York. Large cities in Europe also struggle with it, albeit to a lesser degree.
I'm not against building more housing, but no matter how much you build, not everyone will be able to afford it.
And I don't know where you got the idea that the USA is "turning a blind eye" to these problems. There's no blind eye. The US has the highest carceral population in the world. Cities already spent hundreds of millions on police. The problems are not being ignored, the solutions attempted just don't work.
It's an order of magnitude higher in San Francisco at ~2.5% of the population compared to New York at ~0.8% and Vancouver at ~0.3%. SF isn't the only city with homeless people, but it likely has it to the highest degree, with other undesirable traits like open-air drug use, public defecation, and property crimes.
> no matter how much you build, not everyone will be able to afford it.
That's true, but we should still build more so that more people will be able to afford housing. No policy choice will completely eliminate poverty or homelessness nor reduce it for free without opportunity cost, so as a society we have to make prudent tradeoffs that help the most people for the least cost.
> Poverty exists, which leads to homelessness.
Are you suggesting that we're capable of totally eliminating poverty?
Even being rich in US doesn't protect anyone from being murdered randomly...
One SF startup I saw had executives mostly working remotely in Sonoma county (wine country) or Marin County (mountains and beautiful views) or Atherton. HR declared themselves remote also. For office visits, many Uber-ed in or drove in, conveniently avoiding all the chaos outside.
The median listing home price in Atherton, CA was $10.4M in February 2023. Unfortunately, it is easy to ignore the other half when decision-makers in power living in some of the most beautiful places on earth.
Low-level workers were the ones trekking into SF daily and dealing with reality.
There's no question there's a huge homeless problem in SF but the number of murders there are really low compared to a southern or midwestern city.
I think you are violating this guideline.
Already, I have friends in Europe who lived and visited SF and had some troublesome stories.
I don't know if people realize, but stuff like this will reject people from the Valley and look for other places for entrepreneurship..
(Presently in the New queue on HN.)
If crime is increasing in large US cities (as a trend), there'll be a lack of will in the media to write a story about it.
So I guess Mr. Leahy is getting good use of his "Statistical Cherry Picking for Dummies" book.
Apparently murder is not a problem until a member of the rentier class is affected.
The mere thought of stealing, or attacking a stranger, or dealing drugs illegally, must become so unappetizing that they simply refuse to do it even when they have no other options.
One problem with that idea is that even murder convictions are not even close to 100% accurate, so you'd end up killing lots of innocent people.
It’s fine to take that approach, you’re just a complete pacifist at that point who won’t defend his women and children. I thinks it’s why pacifism is a fairly rare quality.
Property crime is what substantially contributes to the image that SF is an unsafe city.
---
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...
That being said... yes... 6 homicides per 100,000 is 6 homicides per 100,000 too many.
But I don't think any Cupertino in the US can scale to 800k and maintain these stats.
People don't pull out a knife then think "wait, but I'll be punished" and put the knife away. What you are proposing feels good but in no way lines up with the reality of society in a contemporary city. If you want there to be less crime you have to treat it as the social class problem it is and find ways to get people access to other ways of living, or if they're ill (mentally or otherwise) get them care and shelter.
That, or we can continue to price people out of being healthy members of our social strata. It's clearly going great in SF
The same problem exists for "getting care and shelter" in that the problems themselves are hardly immobile, while the solutions are expected to be provided locally.
So we end up with densely concentrated areas of crime in places that are "soft on crime". But it's very clear that the solution isn't increasing police presence in these areas, if it were that simple NYC the 80s would have been crime free. The solution is to fix the problem at its core but to do that we need to agree to cooperate on a broader scale... with something like a federal government that can enact wide policies to create incentives for these things to end. This is how it works in "crime free" japan. But we seem to have given up on federal solutions to these things ages ago.
China is "crime free" also, but the hammer hits really hard so really it is either just very well hidden, or accepted by the police informally (e.g. tea scams, red light massage parlors).
> If you want there to be less crime you have to treat it as the social class problem it is and find ways to get people access to other ways of living, or if they're ill (mentally or otherwise) get them care and shelter.
IMHO, you probably have to do both. There do exist people who are just antisocial, who don't have the self-control to stop themselves from committing crimes or who lack the moral framework to avoid crime if it would otherwise satisfy a goal. And even with crime was driven by "social class problems," even if you solve all those there's still the problem of transitioning from one regime to the other, and dealing with people who's habits and mindset from the old regime keep them committing crimes in the new one.
Far more effective is to increase the chances of getting caught & prosecuted. A guaranteed 10 year sentence for murder is far more effective than a life sentence when you believe you won't get caught.
One difficult aspect of violent crime is that you have to have a suspect before you can bring them to trial. And it's funny because the murder clearance rate seems to match the police funding rate. And the police funding rate is on par with taxes collected nationally and locally.
So sure... you can have police investigating murders, or you can have a zero-tax libertarian utopia, but it appears that you can't have both.
Interesting that you skip right over any idea of prevention, deterrence (other than by threat of incarceration), or alleviation of the conditions that lead to criminality. "Tough on crime" is not the only way to actually reduce crime, and I posit not even the best. Would you care to elaborate on possible solutions other than the punitive?
When bravado is in the air and the climate is a free for all it permeates the whole city, not just some pocket demographics.
And I'm fairly high on the bleeding heart liberal scale but my opinion looking at the crime stats for the US (and other western countries) is that you get the society that you are willing to pay for.
When teachers, social workers, doctors, police, justice systems and prisons cannot teach, help, cure, protect, judge, punish, and rehabilitate people who are not following the laws because there aren't enough of them and they have insufficient resources then this is what you get.
There are people out there who are unintelligent, vulnerable, mentally ill, and occasionally just sociopathic. You need a comprehensive system to try and help those people and protect the rest of society from them.
We've (across the western world) have decided to not put our tax dollars into solving these problems.
Just my 2 cents worth. RIP Mr Lee.
I mean, we obviously want to believe it works- but does it actually? And if, hypothetically, it were counterproductive- what then?
Rule by common sense, not ideology.
Or 18 on this list: https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/cities-wi...
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_homicide_rat...
Here's another link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intention...
The US, as a whole, ranks #60, at 6.5 intentional homicides per 100k. This is just under Russia, Nicaragua, Haiti, Yemen, Afghanistan, Paraguay, and Tanzania, and only slightly better than Argentina, Sudan, Tunisia, etc.
By contrast, countries like Germany, Ireland, Norway, Italy, Hungary, etc. rank in the 150-160 range with 0.5 to 0.8 per 100k. Here in Japan, we're #181 with only 0.3/100k.
From my perspective, SF's murder rate is huge, and the entire US is a violent, "developing" nation. (I put "developing" in quotes because it seems like it's actually going backwards, unlike most developing nations, and the use of "3rd world" here doesn't make logical sense according to its original definition.)
That’s the definition also of a civilized society, how you deal with homelessness and drug addicts.
SF is clearly not a civilized place at all, or frankly the USA for that matter.
I work in a suburb in the rural midwest now. Neighborhoodscout says my odds are 1 in 1100. So my chances of being a victim have improved from 1 in 18 to 1 in 1100. How does it feel ? 8 year old kids here bike to school a mile away, snow or shine, no cps, nothing. As to property crime - once we went away for the weekend & the garage door acted up in our absence. So for a whole 3 days, the garage was wide open & anybody could have walked in & grabbed whatever. Nothing was taken. On the contrary there was a nice note from the neighbor about applying grease on the railing so the garage door stays closed.
So if you are an immigrant & safety is a priority, yeah there are many towns in the midwest southwest etc. where you can be very safe. Houses are quite cheap & I was able to buy my house with straight cash, but ironically that cash was earned in SF! Indeed, I now get paid 4x less than what I made as a programmer back in SF.
So yeah, from an immigrant pov, it looks like in this country you first have to pay your dues. Work in some high-crime zone like SF,NYC etc, accumulate capital. Then move to some peaceful rural place in the midwest with no crime & no nothing. We don't even have a mall.
So… you came to the MidWest just to contribute here to the very problem you were trying to escape
This is going to end well for society. Remind me in 20 years.
Do you disagree?
Call me crazy, but perhaps if those in SF could afford a home/ to live/ the basic necessities of a U.S. citizen, they wouldn’t be out on the streets being low lifes.
Not all of them, some people are truly irredeemable - but truly irredeemable people are typically doing much harder crimes than property theft & petty break-ins.
When you look at the desperate parts of the midwest, of the ones that weren't always that way, you'll find most of the worst of the ones became that way after all the skilled / rich people left coupled with other capital flight. Not the other way around.
Look at a graph of murder rates for LA vs NYC and their surprisingly similar even with very different politics. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/18/us/chicago-mu...
Chicago, NYC, LA, and many other US cities all had similar trends over similar time periods which line up with national trends. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/murd...
“Broken Windows” policing was a radically different paradigm that initially got a great deal of praise because it seemed to be working.
In other words, the entire point of my comment. Thank you for your assistance.
Most rural US problems seem to come from unwillingness to build higher density. Europe has plenty of 5k-20k towns with relatively dense centers that have all the basic services. At the upper end of that range you can even get things like hospitals. And that's in a country with basically no property taxes.
If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.
It all depends on you, your age, and what you like. If you're a people person who loves and needs interaction, shopping, coffee/beer nightly, absolutely don't move out there.
If you are a homebody who just wants to be left alone, move far, far away.
I'm somewhere in between. I like to get out once or twice a week, then be left alone most of the other times. What I strongly prefer is a place in a small town/city that's within 30 mins or so of a bigger city. And that town/city needs to have its own shopping, groceries, restaurants, post office, etc, because having to drive 30 minutes every time you need a battery or something gets old really, really fast.
That's pretty much average for the US.
I ask for no reason other than interest. No blame at all, I also prefer cities like you describe. I've lived all over the US, in some places like you describe (in KY, which isn't far), so was curious.
I absolutely love visiting W Michigan, a real hidden gem. Definitely go check out Holland and the sand dunes north of there if you've never been. Unfortunately, the brutal winters mostly keeps me from moving to that general area.
Everyone seems to be missing a piece of critical non-political information.
One setting is rural, everyone owns the house, lives there long-term, everyone knows neighbours. You don't want to ruin relationship with neighbours for $100.
The other setting is Urban, you don't know neighbours, you don't care what they think. Everyone appears out of nowhere and disappears into obscurity.
The social dynamics is totally different, and the housing crisis has a big role to play in it.
Also you do not Have_To own the house to feel like you live there long term and know neighbours - many European countries have social housing, or massive restrictions on landlords kicking out tenants. So tenants stay in the same place for decades, and there is a real community.
I once forgot a briefcase on the street out of a bar in the center after work. I realized only when I got home. I got back there, sure that I would not find it anymore. I come from Italy and that is just the norm there.
Not only I found it, but someone moved it out of the way of the bike rack where I forgot it. So it was definitely noticed, and yet nobody took it.
Another anecdote. Once at a dancing event, the organizer just left and went to sleep. He told me that if people wanted a drink, they could just grab one from the fridge and put money in the money box. Where I come from, the fridge would have been emptied and the money box would have disappeared.
It's not a matter of urban vs. rural. It's a matter of culture.
In the past few years, crime in some US cities are committed by certain groups of the population - who are partly encouraged by the local powers.
And yet crime levels in various urban settings are wildly different, from places like Johannesburg on one extreme of the continuum to Reykjavík or Tokio on the other one.
Looking at the worst cities worldwide as far as homicide goes, almost all the top contenders are from Mexico, South Africa, Brazil, the US or Colombia, with Mexico being heavily overrepresented. 17 of the top 50 homicide metropolises are Mexican. Damn.
There isn't a single European or Asian city in that list. Germany has some 60 per cent of the Mexican population, but isn't present in the top 50 at all. Heck, even India and China just aren't there, and they together account for almost half of mankind.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_homicide_rat...
The pattern is too non-random to claim that urban life in itself is somehow inherently dangerous. It is only dangerous if your governance sucks.
And yes, SF governance sucks, though not to the degree of Ciudad Juarez - but that is a low, low hurdle to clear.
If you want 'tough on crime' that actually works, but you have to be tough on all crime, including crime in the police. And make sure the entire justice process works.
UK has a 'tough on crime' government, they've increased severity of sentences, but have cut funding to the police. The rate of prosecution, i.e. how likely you are to get caught, fell off a cliff. Also now that police is poorly paid, we have corruption in the police.
Research shows that certainty of punishment is far more important than severity of punishment. Criminals are chancers.
Then we have to make sure that suspects get proper legal council. The current plea bargain system in US is absurd. You can prosecute some poor shmuck for a crime, they can't afford a lawyer, and state lawyer sucks, so they take the plea. Taxpayer pays for their imprisonment, police reports great success. Meanwhile real criminal goes free to commit more crimes with more experience. And they will be harder to catch next time.
Most european countries do not have severe punishment of criminals, yet crime rates aren't crazy.
I havent been to US, so i am not sure about any Bay Area shenanigans
So we completely agree because I’m pretty sure that is all that actually matters.
The issue in US currently is a deranged political fade has taken hold that sees criminals as victims of their circumstances and has started not punishing criminals.
It can be simultaneously true that criminal behavior is often a result of bad circumstances AND that it requires consistent punishment, not that the first point negates the 2nd. Instead social programs need to focus on improving circumstances that lead to criminal behavior not removing punishments.
This political fade is a bankrupt flawed ideology that is effectively mass social psychosis or insanity.
The problem is there’s another flawed political ideology that tells us that—investing in social programs to improve the circumstances that lead to criminal behavior—is bad because communism.
UK is regarded as extremely highly policed state by other Europeans and yet it's less safe than here in mainland Europe.
Which ones? Britain is one of very few countries in Europe where the police don't routinely carry guns, and are perceived as approachable.
I think you should look instead at inequality. Britain has the worst income equality in Europe.
My police is approachable and I don't care about the gun on their belt. I saw them use it for protection of the citizens - I appreciate they have it and don't consider it over-policing, it's not moving that scale anywhere.
It's not about the gun, it's about the rights of the police. The police here carries a gun but has zero rights/power against citizens not breaking any laws. They can't even stop you and ask for your ID - that would be considered "communism" here (same with the cameras, that's a "communist practice").
It's not worth continuing the discussion since you haven't said which country.
Vienna is pretty mixed since the times of the Austro-Hungarian empire, but fairly safe. Glasgow is almost purely Scottish, but dangerous. Naples is probably less ethnically mixed than Rome, but more dangerous. Marseille is a lot worse than Genoa etc.
I don't doubt that particular kinds of immigration can worsen crime situation considerably, but some places can manage that and some fail miserably. You can even see it in the same city if the political representation changes. AFAIK the current mayor of Barcelona is notorious for letting street crime fester.
Edit: It's applied rarely and only for egregious cases, eg breaking into a depot to spray-paint subway cars and getting caught on CCTV doing it. There are plenty of things to criticize about Singapore (for one, there's a lot less oversight on prisoners getting caned as an administrative punishment), but the way they handle vandalism isn't really at the top of my list, not least because it's remarkably effective.
...
No it isn't. Absolutely not. No way. Never coming there. Damn this place. Doesn't matter what the offense has to be, it's never fine.
Do you think that each and every judgement of judicial caning was correct? That mistakes can't happen?
Isn't this mostly a myth? You will get fined for littering in Singapore just like elsewhere, though their fines are higher and the police arguably enforces laws against littering more eagerly than in the West. Caning (not flogging) is reserved for more serious offences (IIRC the lightest one is vandalism.)
Dubai employs flogging, but for Shariah offences, not for littering.
Hong Kong doesn't use judicial corporeal punishment at all.
Like all 'proper oldschool' conservative societies, in Dubai laws is applied only to the 'right people'.
For example extramarital sex is a crime, but if you open Tinder it's full of hookers.
There are tons of immigrants in Germany/Western Europe and east Asia.
That is an absurdly inaccurate assertion.
There are Vietnamese communities in CZ/SK everywhere, even in very rural areas, but, you won't see them much in the streets, because they spend their life indoors working, and they usually own their shops, living right behind them, so they aren't even seen commuting to work and back. Quite often the only small grocery in a village or a small town is Vietnamese-owned.
But maybe East Asians are now considered (elevated? condemned?) as basically white by the American racial discourse?
Whether left or right, their concept of ethnicity is primitive. white/black/asian.
Are Russians same ethnicity as Germans? Are Germans same ethnicity as Bavarian? Russian government considers Russia to have ~100 ethnic groups native to Russia.
Us discourse is either about skin-colour, or about man-made country borders.
The only scientifically based concept is Haplogroups, bur noone knwos about them.
The rest is man-made concepts and culture.
>The rest is man-made concepts and culture.
You got to it at the end. There’s nothing about any of it that is scientific, it’s all just culture.
The reason why it’s “primitive” in America is because that is what is true in the American context. It just doesn’t map to the European context.
Ironically, America in the 90s and early 2000s seemed to be approaching a sweet spot where cultural expectations and “mild” authoritarian policing were successful at crushing urban crime rates. This whole thread is full of longtime West Coasters bemoaning how much better city life was in “the good old days” of 10-15 years ago. Odd how there’s zero political will to simply go back to what worked.
Also worth pointing out that homogeneity isn’t only along an axis of race. Example: There are plenty of Mexican Americans who are extremely racist towards newer Mexican immigrants to their neighborhoods. LATimes has done several pieces about this dynamic. People will always find reasons to put other people in categories.
Also worth pointing out that the society in Japan is more overtly racist towards outsiders of any race. My source is a life-long friend (white American living in Japan for 15+ years) who overheard lots of conversations when the locals think he doesn’t understand their words.
America has been a “melting pot” for a while, so we have moved our racial/homogeneity issues at least one layer below polite discussion. Most Americans will put up a façade about not being racist, but don’t actually put any effort to align their behaviors.
Sadly, I think identity politics has tossed the melting pot ideals aside. It encourages zero sum thinking where different groups are enemies and relative sucess is what matters. This means pulling others down is just important than lifting people up. Unfortionatly, it is easier to pull people down than lift them up.
Crab bucket mentality in practice.
My theory is racism and identity politics have a positive feedback relationship. That is to say identity politics is counterproductive for bringing about a less biased and hostile society. It divides and pits people against each other as enemies.
Yes, Japan is a very high-conforming and ethnically homogeneous society. It is also a low-crime society. However, to derive just from that that absence of racial homogeneity alone leads to high crime makes no more sense than claiming that not using logographic scripts leads to violence - since Asian society are generally less violent than, for example, the US. You need to do much more work than just picking one difference and attribute everything to it.
It’s not the homogeneity.
Please read the first line in the main body of your article and you’ll find the answer. It’s so predictable it’s more accurate than science.
Cronulla was a one-off event almost 20 years ago, was extremely shocking and out of the ordinary, and as far as I can remember no-one died. As such, it’s not a great example of anything much, other than the fact that ethnic tensions existed between white and Arab communities in Australia in the mid-2000s (which is not all that surprising given the context of 9/11, the Iraq War, etc)
I do agree with your first point, however, that Sydney is a good example of one of the most multicultural cities in the world being quite safe, without requiring authoritarian policing (lockouts and drug dogs in train stations aside)
But I’ll stop you right there from swaying the blame onto someone else and reaching entirely false conclusions. What crime is NOT due to:
- Crime is not due to poverty. Plenty of poor cities who aren’t violent.
- Crime is not due to previous crime. Put white felons on an island and you get Australia, as the joke says.
- Crime is not due to high-density area. Tokyo.
- Crime is not due to immigration or displacing population. Ukraine migrant kids who spoke French astonishingly fluently in 6 months, a better score than all kids from “other” French backgrounds.
- Crime is not due to mixing population. Singapore.
Each of them is easily proven by finding great counter-examples of constructive people being moved/concentrated to place X or Z and not having high criminality.
It must be something else, something which can be found in all evoked areas and not found in peaceful areas, but I’m not going to say it.
Is it water?
Also, your list doesn't mean some combination of those things can't result in worsening incidence of violent crime.
My own belief is that its some combination of:
- Extreme wealth inequality
- High cost of living
- High incidence of poverty (relative to the aforementioned cost of living)
- Poor social safety net
- Poor community cohesion and trust
- Individualistic cultural attitudes (as opposed to collectivist cultural attitudes)
- Poor public protection
- Easy access to drugs (including alcohol)
I think the drugs just become a symptom of the problem; people get addicted because they are suffering (see rat park). They develop antisocial behaviours, which reduces community cohesion and trust. The city then becomes less happy overall, and it becomes a cycle
When kicked out of the front door, try to come back through the backdoor?
You can create convoluted science that a combination of those factors leads to violence. Since it’s a combination, it’s even less provable, a correlation doesn’t cause causation, and I’ll keep finding counter examples, to which you will find even more convoluted reasons.
But there is a much, much simpler hypothesis, and for my part it explains the world with accuracy and predictability. What defines a science is its ability to predict the future based on some inputs.
So, my stance is to never make a decision based on prejudice, which is satisfying in terms of humanism, but don’t forget that people will reliably get killed, mugged and raped, and in quantity, if you don’t watch out for the thing-I’ll-not-say which was ever predictable. And it’s both our responsibility to put our family out of harm’s way, and an incredible feat of the XXIth century that we’re feeding our own relatives into a crime machine that reliably gets them killed or raped.
Speaking from experience. But everyone who has a grave opinion on this topic has, someday, seen a relative crossing the path of those people.
You’ll hear stats about the high percentage of Japanese people in Japan, but those statistics invariably refer to Japanese citizens, not ethnic Japanese.
At least, that’s my belief as an American who has spent several years living in Japan.
Perchance those things are related?
It’s why even in America you see racial/ethnic blocs and enclaves form. Hence the mentions of an “Asian voting bloc” or “Hispanic voting bloc”, during elections. Would we be hearing about such things if the US was monoracial? Even among many divisions, it would be one less divisive factor.
(yes, I’m aware in the past things were carved up even among whites - such as Italians vs. Irish etc)
What really are the genetic basis to say Japan is a country that's markedly different from other asian populations?
The people living in Japan have not lived there for long enough for their genetic to become too different from those of other asian countries. Culture on the other hand changes much more rapidly. Culture is the "genetics" of society, it is passed down from generation to generation and it mutates and these mutations are also hereditary... it's just much faster than biological processes.
But ultimately, it seems very unlikely (and as far as I know, there's very little evidence that suggests this is the case) that race and genetics will have a huge effect on culture. Specially given that countries with similar genetic populations will have vastly different cultures.
The Ainu’s skin tone is more like Caucasians than East Asians and the majority population, (Yamato?) are noticeably shorter than the Koreans to whom they are most closely related. There’s clearly been enough isolation, for long enough, for some differentiation. That’s not to say the distribution of traits doesn’t overlap. We’re not talking Sardinians and Swedes here, never mind Bantu and Basque.
Seoul, like Tokyo, could also be described as a HNer’s dream city. Ultra safe, ultra clean, amazing transit. And like Tokyo, a city like Seoul could never exist in the US for similar reasons.
(Then again, cars and public transit coexist somewhat harmoniously in Seoul, with cars being an aspirational item for many Koreans, so maybe it’s not a dream city for the banallcars HNer crowd)
Keep in mind the culture of the various regions could easily cause fast natural (?) selection. I’m no expert on Japan’s history, and even less so on China/Korea/etc. I know enough that Japan had periods of pretty constant war, and that the young and the brash would essentially volunteer to be mercenaries. It seems to me that could pretty quickly weed out the most aggressive genes in a population. It would be different, of course, if soldiers were conscripted instead.
That’s just one example and as I said, I’m not a historian. Another example would be America. People always come up with silly reasons why we became the dominant world power. In my opinion the reason is simple: the people that immigrated here were risk takers, hard workers, and dreamers. Their kids would inherit those genes.
So, I’d say culture begets genetics which begets culture…
Yet that didn't happen to other regionally isolated countries like Mexico or Brazil - hell, or even Canada.
And yes, youth always volunteer for wars. Like I said, I'm not a historian and my example was just an example of how things could guide selection. That said I don't think many countries had something similar to what ronin, or even samurai, were. It was a fairly unique system.
China's Great Leap Forward would be another example of something that could guide who lived to procreate and who didn't.
because publicly acknowledging this obvious reality comes at a cost: you WILL be attacked. most people do not want to be attacked and would rather take the easier route of pretending to not notice this or anything that's going to cause them a problem.
they have even done studies with 1 day old babies where the scientist holds the baby's nose shut and guess what, babies of different races react in different ways. same as when they take baby boys and girls and put them in a room the boys go for the toy trucks and the girls go for the dolls. i'm sorry but that study doesn't need to happen if you don't live in an ivory tower and have to act like a politician because you have so much money to lose for having the wrong opinion.
[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34615972
[2] https://qz.com/2029525/the-20-countries-that-dont-collect-ra...
A glance at Japan's history and geography will tell you that Japan is an incredibly homogenous country as far as ethnicity goes.
Furthermore, up until 1869 Hokkaido was a separate kingdom peopled by the Ainu - Japan has a long history of exchanging people with Korea. It's not some fabled walled-off kingdom, it's a regular country full of regular people
Not how that works.
If I was being more careful I could have written the country "indirectly elects" the Supreme Court judges. My basic point still stands, San Francisco policy is in many ways set by the entire country.
So far the city is processing 72 applications, and they expect to get nearly 100 to 200 more over the next year. Which is very different from the four we processed in the past 10 or so years
Source: https://californiaglobe.com/articles/san-francisco-begins-is...
Certainly 100 permits a year are not going to change things much and definitely four issued in the last 10 years didn't, and if anything sounds like "strict gun control", then four people allowed to carry in 10 years is it.
Singapore is a better example, but requires a form of authoritarianism to pull off that would be unacceptable to both the right and the left.
Japan takes few immigrants, but those that do immigrate there are expected to be guests and live within the established norms of Japanese culture and society.
That’s the opposite mindset of the US - especially the liberal leaning areas, where the society is expected to accept and respect diversity and differences.
You can immigrate to Japan as a Westerner (or even as a outwardly similar looking East Asian from Korea or China, etc), live there for decades and become fully assimilated into Japanese society, even gain citizenship, but still be treated as an outsider - not necessarily disrespectfully.
You could probably say the same for other East Asian countries such as Korea, China, Taiwan, etc.
Someone gets in your house while you are on vacation? Bad luck, you will live on the street before the law sloooo...ooo..wly makes is way and you are almost there but, bad luck this is winter now and you cannot get anyone out and then comes summer and, shit, they now have a baby and they cannot be thrown out.
You will also get a fine if you try to do it your own way, and they will sue you on top of that. And sue you if they get harmed in your house
No surprise that in other to rent a box you need to be royal.
We have a great social system I wholeheartedly support. And then come the leeches we are to week to get rid of and everyone suffers because of that.
Massively reducing prosecutions causes police to stop arresting people since they get released without being charged. This changes the incentive structure for criminals. They get more aggressive, more brazen, and they tell their friends. This isn't complicated.
Hahaha. What a joke. Unbelievable. So disconnected from reality.
I'm a bit surprised people are seriously believing this. This is someone's shower thoughts six hours later when they strawmanned some ridiculous positions to caricaturize "opponents".
I will go further and say that everything the person said seems...dubious, and are claims that are unverifiable. Like, where is this low-income "suburb" (two hours from a major center...) that has no crime? As someone who grew up in a smaller town in the rust belt, I find their claim hysterical.
> I'm a bit surprised people are seriously believing this. This is someone's shower thoughts six hours later when they strawmanned some ridiculous positions to caricaturize "opponents".
You're trying to portray the story as fabricated, but that's likely wrong. IMHO, it's more likely exaggerated (e.g. there probably wasn't a "lively debate in the commons," more likely comments directed at no one in particular morphing two opinionated randos getting mad at each other).
>> So if you are an immigrant & safety is a priority, yeah there are many towns in the midwest southwest etc. where you can be very safe. Houses are quite cheap & I was able to buy my house with straight cash, but ironically that cash was earned in SF!
> Like, where is this low-income "suburb" (two hours from a major center...) that has no crime? As someone who grew up in a smaller town in the rust belt, I find their claim hysterical.
He didn't say it was "low-income," just cheaper compared to SF. I grew up in a smaller city in the Midwest (four hours from a major center), and his account rings true to me. There's more to the Midwest than the rust belt.
> And FWIW, every single small city I checked around 2 hours outside of Chicago has property crime rates worse than Chicago! Isn't that amazing? No, it isn't, unless you're deluded enough to believe their nonsense.
There's a lot of Midwest outside of that region. Even if what you say is true*, it's a skewed sample that can't reasonably be assumed to represent the whole.
* Which I doubt, especially there can be confounding effects in whatever statistics you're looking at, like differing reporting rates (which was already called out in this thread or a similar one, w.r.t San Francisco).
once upon a time, not that long ago from a historical PoV (the 1950s), Detroit was THE wealthiest city in the USA and it's now among the poorest
and if you look at the decay of those once-wealthy cities, the pattern is that they took it for granted and stopped caring and competing
hard times make good men, etc etc
What I wonder is where are the fathers in this scenario. I can't imagine the conversation about the son's income coming from stealing phones going very well with his father.
All the fathers stepped out for a pack of smokes some years ago and didn't come back.
For what it’s worth, these are solving two different problems. The reported train discussion was a disagreement on a solution to the systemic problem. Jailing the perpetrator only treats the problem with that specific person. Both problems need solutions.
A little implausible?
> Work in some high-crime zone like SF,NYC etc, accumulate capital.
People love living in these cities, as real estate prices show. It's not 'paying dues'; those are much more preferred than small towns, as those real estate prices show. You of course are free to prefer whatever you like.
Also if we're being honest, SF was never the tech hub of the Bay Area - it was always Santa Clara County. Before the 2010s, the only major software company here in SF was probably Salesforce and that's because Benioff is a townie.
1) I'm guessing at his middle name.
It's fundamentally unfair to deny carry permits for decades and then also fail at effective policing.
Most murderers have already committed a lot of crimes, sometimes including other murders. If the police are ineffective many won't be known or reported, but I will hazard a guess that the attacker did commit them. In other words, the effective police+DA could have prevented the stabbing and didn't.
It sucks that the answer is to shoot criminals rather than prosecute them. But that is what the answer will be in the world of ineffective police+DA after Bruen. And frankly, it's good that the option will be there as a last resort for vulnerable citizens.
I know people will suggest all kinds of "better options". But those better options have been known for a long time and nothing has been done. The victims are just a statistic... collateral damage of politics.
Be careful defending yourself in a city like SF. You’ll likely end up in jail without the right attorneys.
"Avoid situations where you might be stabbed" is not a great answer, either. What was the victim doing to invite stabbing? Should we just evacuate SoMa and leave it to the criminals?
I would not go there. This thread in particular suggests that it is a crime-infested hellhole, but it's a sentiment I have seen here and other forums commonly. Guns also give assailants a fighting chance; I also try and avoid situations where I could be shot.
In the last five years, the pro-gun-rights side of the equation has moved more away from the idea of fighting a tyrannical government to an idea of self defense.
Also, I see those two ideas as related. A tyrannical government need not turn the military against disfavored citizens. It need only deny them police protection and turn criminals loose.
Ukraine is also interesting and there's probably some lesson there about gun rights, but I'm not well informed on that matter.
He was Chief Product Officer at MobileCoin. Hopefully we learn who stabbed him, and why. 43 is just way too young. Thoughts go out to his wife. He was instrumental in creating Android. Whatever you may think of it today, we wouldn't have it if it weren't for him.
If it was, these discussions wouldn’t exist.
You won’t see these threads about Zurich, just saying.
For a sense of scale for anyone who hasn't been, Switzerland has tax funded drinkable water fountains basically everywhere, and (if you will excuse the surprising conjunction) rolls of free bags for dog poo mounted on the dog poo bins which are also basically everywhere.
Only point I was trying to make is that this statement is reductio ad absurdum:
> Funny how people try so hard to show/prove/argue that SF is safe. If it was, these discussions wouldn’t exist.
Given the significant overlap between "people who live in or near SF because they work in tech, with a strong history of startups" and "people who discuss things on HN, a website about tech, with a strong history of startups", it's entirely unsurprising that people would discuss SF crime rates on HN, and the fact that they do so can't be construed as any form of evidence for any position.
Sigh, I'm not even trying to affirm or deny anything about SF, I've only been there once, met some lovely homeless people, and some very unwell ones.
I've been to SF a few times, though most recently in 2018 and I don't know the place well enough to name the districts without Google helping.
Obviously some people do get stabbed in the streets there.
E.g., "Zürich Messerstecherei" or "Zürich erstochen" will yield far more relevant results like this one:
https://www.20min.ch/story/erneut-messerstecherei-in-zuerich...
"Erneut Messerstecherei in Zürich" roughly translates to "Another stabbing in Zürich".
And I'm not trying to claim that it's comparable. The only point I was trying to make is that this statement is reductio ad absurdum:
> Funny how people try so hard to show/prove/argue that SF is safe. If it was, these discussions wouldn’t exist.
Given the significant overlap between "people who live in or near SF because they work in tech, with a strong history of startups" and "people who discuss things on HN, a website about tech, with a strong history of startups", it's entirely unsurprising that people would discuss SF crime rates on HN, and the fact that they do so can't be construed as any form of evidence for any position.
I am pretty sure that when there is a stabbing in Zürich, locals will discuss it in their relevant online communities.
Sigh, I'm not even trying to affirm or deny anything about SF, I've only been there once, met some lovely homeless people, and some very unwell ones.
E.g., "Zürich Messerstecherei" or "Zürich erstochen" will yield far more relevant results like this one:
https://www.20min.ch/story/erneut-messerstecherei-in-zuerich...
"Erneut Messerstecherei in Zürich" roughly translates to "Another stabbing in Zürich".
[1] <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-security-police/fr...> <http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/paris-terror-...>, for example
I'm not saying this is a good thing, as tourism is a big contributor to Prague's economy, and I don't like when people are getting scammed. But this doesn't affect much the average Tomáš' life.
I have also lived five years in San Francisco, and Paris overall feels much safer to me.
No Go Zones are complete nonsense, but there's a gradient of safety.
Are you referring to the Barbes Rochechouart area?
Yeah other parts of the 18th are really nice.
Also to note, I make it a point to avoid, say, inland Baltimore or South Detroit. Whereas I did go to North Paris, which speaks the difference.
But compared to Montreal/Ottawa/Toronto Paris is certainly still a level below in safety. I imagine the Japanese would say the same of Canada.
Ah ok I see. Its been a while since I've been there (2015). Its wasn't too bad back then, has it gotten worse?
It looked really rough.
The short video clips may seem similar, but the lived reality is vastly different.
When an area rules out half the demographic then there's no way to sugarcoat it.
So they are no-go zones. I'm glad you've cleared this up. I can now tell my liberal friends that a Parisian has confirmed the existence of such and it isn't just American conservatives telling lies.
Maybe start to subscribe to the bipartisan view that being a woman alone at night generally sucks.
Ideology is the problem. There are many who base their worldview not on reality but rather what they wish to be true.
It takes a lot to admit you were wrong, and it’s not the kind of thing I typically expect from the kind of folks well invested in ideologically driven politics.
They'll ignore mitigating factors that might not fit their narrative - things like the Reagan repeal of MHSA, the bussing of 'problem' citizenry from other states to SF, police 'quiet quitting', among countless others.
Truth is, there's plenty of blame to go around, but one side deals in bad faith because they like it to be this way because it makes them feel right.
Also much of it is not grassroots - that's the first mistake many make viewing it as. If you look at both the Democratic Party as well as Republicans there are wealthy elites behind both, funding the campaigns. But their policies and demands can be extremely radical and populist, much more so than in Europe.
Would you consider it far-left or far-right to demand payment of $5 million to every "Black adult" (they don't define what that means), as well as eliminating all their debt AND having them pay no tax AND guaranteed annual income of at least $97,000 for 250 years AND a home in San Francisco for just $1 per family? Might sound insane but that's an actual proposal from San Fransisco, it's not a made-up example.
The same party has been in power for over 20 years. This is actually not so different from some places in Europe. In Berlin for example you can see a similar development, although maybe not with the same level of crime. But the trend is comparable.
SJF is the political ideology which local governments like SF have embraced. It's one that I personally think is to blame for many of the city's problems, and I believe moderates like myself are ever so slowly being proven right on the topic.
I can't believe people are still sprouting this crap.
They admitted that they exist before Trump became president!
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-security-police/fr...>
<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/paris-terror-...>
The murder rate in SF is extremely low. Violent crime as a whole is extremely low.
If a tech founder got stabbed in Zurich, you would indeed see a story just like this.
This is such an exaggeration, it's a borderline lie.
In contrast, 6.5% of the population in SF is the victim of crime every year.
For comparison, I've spent maybe a month in SF put together over the last few years:
- In 30 days, I met more than 30 mentally ill people in SF. 40 Years everywhere else, I saw one old lady with dementia once in Copenhagen. And a few randoms few and far between in London. By mentally ill I mean the kind of ill where you're shouting nonsense in public.
- Then there's the guy who is aggressively threatening his imaginary friends. Seems to be a SF creature, doesn't seem drunk or stoned, just nuts. Even these guys outnumber the drunk/stoned nutters I've met in Europe in the last few years. I ran into them often, trying to stay away since you know...
- SF seemed like you were never more than 2 minutes away from someone with lower level mental health problems. I sat down in a Starbucks and realised I was hearing Cantonese from somewhere. Turned around it was some middle aged woman swearing while having a conversation with herself. But she wasn't in the category above.
- Never saw any crime but I've seen the shoplifting videos. That would not pass in Zurich. Probably not most places though I wonder if Metropolitan Police would get their act together.
- Extreme distress behavior like stealing food, never saw it anywhere else. In SF someone ran in to grab my leftovers when I was done eating. Not the same as a safety issue, but you can see how people might feel unsafe with that kind of thing happening.
- Generally an extreme level of inequality in living conditions might make people feel unsafe. I mean there were people on the street with no shoes, walking around Nordstrom department store in town centre.
Of course it's a long way between safety stats and feeling safe. I would guess if you're living in Sweden right now, you are safe despite the rocketing murder rate, providing you're not involved in organised crime. You might not feel that way and yes there's going to be innocents caught up with it. But safe means a lot of things.
Neither out of mana, nor what a dyslexic cow says, nor that your spectrum hobbit has fucking crashed again where helping me here: https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=oom
iirc the easier to synthesize meth causes psychosis pretty quickly and makes it hard to help people recover.
It’s one thing to be able to persuade a heroin addict into recovery, it’s another to interact with someone fully psychotic.
That mixed with good weather and not as strict policy causes problems.
Around soma or tenderloin you’ll see lots of people doing the “dope lean” - I think that’s a fentanyl thing.
It was pretty much the polar opposite experience of walking down any major street in LA or SF. Of all the metro areas I've visited in Europe, Copenhagen had the least visible amount of junkies and homeless people. I've been in Oslo tons of times, and there you see them quite frequently (but compared to California they're pretty much non-existent)
Nope. Taking a train from Zürich HB to Bellinzona for the holiday. The train is full. My suitcase is in the next car.
It will be there, untouched, when I get off in an hour or so.
Certainly in terms of crime, it doesn’t
(It was originally a reply to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35457507.)
I find it sad that in SF this is considered “amazing”. This is not amazing. This should be considered the norm.
Separately from that, you also broke the intended topic of this thread (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35457341), I'm going to move the post to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 now.
“drugs”
https://sfist.com/2023/01/03/sf-sees-exact-same-number-of-ho... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...
If someome could point me to them or explain why they don't exist, I'd appreciate it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_homicide_rat... excluding those at war.
( do not downvote me i am a gay man )
My hometown has about 500 thousand people and is not there, it’s murder rate is about 10
I don’t feel like SP or SF is dangerous
SF has always been a known shit hole anyway and it has never been safe for techies.
"I left SF 1,000 years ago, it's awful! I know, because I haven't lived there in 1,000 years!"
and
"I'll never move to SF, this is why! I know it's awful, because of the news!"
Not saying SF doesn't have problems. I don't live there, so I don't know! I do know that I live next to some cities that have similar or worse reputations, and I also know those reputations are overplayed.
A lot of people have fun anecdotes about visiting San Francisco. For example, I was in SF for 3 days and was chased by a man with a knife in a park near a major tourist attraction. I lived in NYC for 12 years and nothing of that sort happened my entire time there.
Maybe SF is unique in the dangers are equally dispersed among residents, non residents, and across neighborhoods of varied socio-economic status. Chicago is reputationally dangerous, but the violence is really limited to non-tourist neighborhoods that mostly poor people live in. So probably not the type of people who will be posting stories on HN, or get a CNN article written about them when they die.
This isn't an argument.
> A lot of people have fun anecdotes about visiting San Francisco.
Also not an argument.
> For example, I was in SF for 3 days and was chased by a man with a knife in a park near a major tourist attraction. I lived in NYC for 12 years and nothing of that sort happened my entire time there.
Also not an argument. But I have had close calls in NYC as a tourist!
Not that this should matter, nobody deserves to be stabbed… but I knew Bob personally btw and he was a great guy.
For all the "problems" that tech bros solve, it's somehow tragically fitting that the two worlds collide undeniably this way. The city didn't get like this overnight, and the tech culture that it supports has been one of the drivers of the economic divide.
Now the bubble is burst at the point of a knife... or is it? Will people see the root of the problem? Or will they just call for more police, more coercion, to double-down on the status quo? You could take this as a call to solve real problems, right there, at home.
I wish a political party existed in the United States that represented my definition of "normal people". One that wasn't focused on fascism/marginalizing people who are different but also cared about middle out economics by supporting policies that deregulate, spur industry, create jobs...
When I was a kid, we walked 5 miles in the middle of the night to avoid being killed by rebels. So... I mean... things can always get worse. Maybe stop watching Fox News and read some data.
Oh, the irony!