woeirua

They made the same argument for gambling. "It's a victimless crime!" Except it isn't.

AI is way beyond conventional LLM architecture now. It combines LLMs with search + RL. The traditional LLM architecture hit a wall around GPT-4o. Arc AGI evals show this.

So... why would you use Fable now?

Open models wont be open for long. No one is going to release an open model capable of chaining zero-days. Even the Chinese aren't that reckless because it will just be turned around and used against them.

It'd be way better if the clusters showed the average price for all the stations underneath each cluster. Then you could get a sense of prices nationally immediately.

I thought ARC-AGI-3 was explicitly a test of raw model performance excluding the harness? Adding the harness back in doesn't tell us anything new. We've known that agents are capable of long horizon reasoning with sufficient harnesses. GPT-4(?) was capable of beating Pokemon 18 months ago but models only became capable of beating it without a harness in the last six months...?

Is there any scenario in which Github doesn't start yanking features out of the free tier to protect the core service for paying users?

Not really. Grad students are already essentially working for free.

This makes no sense. To believe this you have to think that the models are somehow being overfit explicitly on academic mathematics and it doesn’t carry over at all to more practical software engineering. I wouldn’t make that bet.

No bud, it’s just the beginning!

So… your model is 100% vibes based. Got it.

Anthropic: "Look at how dangerous our models are!"

Anthropic next week: "Why did you ban our models Mr Trump Daddy?"

A lot of people are slowly realizing that code generation was not the bottleneck in their internal development process, and waving a magic wand to make that go faster doesn't actually lead to more revenue.

This is also at the end of the tokenmaxxing era, so I'm not sure I would draw a straight line out from here. A LOT of companies are clamping down on token costs right now.

A couple anecdotes:

I noticed that were a lot of traditional, non-tech companies interviewing for AI engineers in the Feb/March timeframe that have halted hiring in those roles entirely. It seems that if those roles didn't close by mid-April that they didn't close at all. This seems to match the timeframe in which cost suddenly became prominent in the AI zeitgeist.

I don't know _anyone_ outside of SV who has successfully replaced even a single employee completely with the current models. Maybe someone has pulled this off in call centers, but the POCs have all failed.

I'm very much pro-AI, but I just think we're on a false summit. As the article points out, there is absolutely no way to recoup the investment costs unless the models allow companies to start displacing human workers by the millions _and_ recapture a significant fraction of the displaced workers total comp. If either of those aren't true, then the bubble is going to pop... soon.

I don’t get it. There’s no moat here. OpenRouter isn’t hard to rebuild.

Yes, but the market prefers store bought bread despite the fact that homemade bread is: cheaper, tastes better, and nutritionally better. That's the exact point. Homemade bread should objectively win but it doesn't!

Agents will make all of these migrations trivial. I expect margin collapse across a lot of tech darlings.

There’s actually a strong case that agents will erode cloud providers’ margins because the lock in migration cost will be much lower in the future. No one ever migrated before because you’d spend $$$ to save $$ then the new vendor would gradually raise your rates negating the savings.

So then your argument would be that we could see a bifurcation in the SP493 where those who adopt AI see increasing margins and those who do not have their margins crushed. What's funny is that in that scenario, the aggregate market might look zero sum.

I can't take these indexes seriously when Germany is about to outright ban an entire political party. The US takes the first amendment very seriously.

Thatched roofs don't exist in CA.

>Mythos level really doesn't seem that scary.

This is not a serious comment. A model capable of chaining exploits together is capable of causing massive damage through cyber attacks.

This assumes that AGI is not a winner takes all or winner takes most scenario. We just don't know that. If RSI actually happens, then it really could be winner takes all, and in that case being 6 months behind is the same as not even playing at all.

How many people are going to call Jeffrey Kessler? lol.

You are delusional if you think China is going to let Europe have access to Mythos level models for free.

The choice of the name Sol is interesting for those Raised By Wolves fans out there… “Praise Sol!”

I’m surprised Claude worked on this… in the not too distant past my attempts to build human-CAPTCHAs triggered safety refusals. What model did you use?

That's fine, but there are a lot of used EVs that have more features in the low-mid 20s now. You really have to want an _EV_ truck.

Slate was far more compelling when we still had the federal EV incentive. Now... you can get a far better equipped Ford Maverick hybrid just around $30k (maybe less with dealer discounts). Hard to see what the market is for the Slate.