Hacker News Reader

westwingon Moderna Covid vaccine candidate almost 95% effective, trials show

Even if the risk were greater, it would be unreasonable to assume that the age group of 15-25, which is most likely to die from risky behavior, could easily be convinced to change said behavior.

westwingon Moderna Covid vaccine candidate almost 95% effective, trials show

Of course, the perceived risk is quite different from the statistical risk.

Currently, about one in 4000 Scots is hospitalized, which says that approximately only one in 40 Scots directly knows someone hospitalized with COVID, assuming they know 100 people each.

However, the chance of directly knowing someone that had a positive COVID test is 1 in 40, which says most Scots will know someone who had a mild case of COVID.

westwingon Moderna Covid vaccine candidate almost 95% effective, trials show

"Coronavirus in Scotland: People are taking risks because vaccine is close, says John Swinney"

This reminds me of the speculative rationalizations that are given after-the-fact whenever the stock market rises or falls.

So let me chime in with the speculation:

The biggest factor is probably the realization that COVID is not as big a personal risk as feared, no matter what the media or the government says. People are gladly using COVID as an excuse to work from home or avoid meeting their elderly relatives, but when it comes to avoiding infection in order to save "the system", enough people simply don't care anymore. It's too abstract.

westwingon On Learning Chess as an Adult – From 650 to 1750 in Two Years

That fails to account for the fact that many bullying victims aren't physically weak and that bullying can also be entirely void of physical aspects.

What makes you so certain about it? Is this not simply what you would like to believe, because you desire some form of cosmic justice?

westwingon On Learning Chess as an Adult – From 650 to 1750 in Two Years

I'm not talking about complex societies, but about the kind of small tribes that we evolved in, where such information is local. School classes resemble such tribes.

If bullying was simply dominating behavior, it should be generally directed at anyone, yet it more commonly affects the stereotypical nerd.

In any case, this isn't to give credit to bullies. There is no credit to be given for behavior that I consider innate.

westwingon Moderna Covid vaccine candidate almost 95% effective, trials show

I'm concerned about the safety of mRNA vaccines, but I'm not at all knowledgeable on the topic.

What are the assessments of the HN crowd?

westwingon On Learning Chess as an Adult – From 650 to 1750 in Two Years

Here's a theory on why nerds get bullied:

Bullies instinctively realize that there's an unusually smart person in their tribe who is wasting their gift on fruitless endeavors, thus reducing the survival chances of the tribe.

Of course, our modern society can afford to have smart people play chess. However, there is no evidence that chess skill transfers to other areas. Therefore, until proven otherwise, developing chess skill should be perceived as frivolous, just like developing skill in any other less prestigious game.

westwingon Benford's “law” does not detect voting fraud

> ...whereas "independently certified" refers to a less formal declaration of the results by a third party other than the candidates and their proxies or government administrators such as election observers or independent media outlets.

Can you provide a reference for that assertion? I tried to find it myself, the best thing I found is this blog post, describing the wording "independently certified" as curious:

https://excessofdemocracy.com/blog/2020/10/what-does-it-mean...

westwingon The Lonely Work of Moderating Hacker News (2019)

Consider that HN is a tool to measure how dissenting your views actually are with the crowd that you are interacting with.

This is useful in a time where taking some stance can cost you your job or career, even years down the line.

However, it's unfortunate that instead of showing up- and downvotes, negative-scored comments turn grey. There is no distinction between a universally disliked comment and a controversial comment.

westwingon Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

This isn't specifically about Trump, but about the political tactic of accusing the opponent of "enabling extremists". Both sides are using it.

Let's focus on the falsifiability: What would a candidate have to do in order to disprove the accusation?

If there isn't a clear answer to that question, then how is this tactic materially different from name-calling?

westwingon Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

> Genuinely interested when/where Trump disavowed right wing extremists.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/trump-has-condemned-white-...

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54381500

> I've seen him refuse to denounce white supremacy in the first debate...

That was clearly a missed opportunity to clear things up, but the counter-question "Who do you want me to condemn?" is a fair one. It's easy for Trump to condemn the KKK, not so easy to condemn militia groups in general. Similarly, it's easy for Biden to condemn rioters, not so easy to condemn Antifa in general. Effectively, both candidates dodged that question.

> ... I haven't seen him denounce anyone who might vote for him.

That's moving the goalpost a bit too far for my taste. Trump has condemned white supremacists, that at least is on the record.

westwingon Pro Rata and User Centric Distribution Models: A Comparative Study (2017)

It's more complicated than that. If economics of scale applied to music pricing, why do records cost all more or less the same?

A small act can't support itself from licensing fees alone either way, it would make sense to settle for less, or waive fees entirely, just to increase exposure.

westwingon Pro Rata and User Centric Distribution Models: A Comparative Study (2017)

The algorithm isn't dumb at all. Lady Gaga is relatively more valuable for the platform, so she can ask for a bigger slice of the pie.

If all you wanted was a streaming platform that didn't have all these major artists on it, it could be provided for much less than £15.

westwingon Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

There are extremists on the left, Biden disavowed them publicly.

There are extremists on the right, Trump disavowed them publicly.

Nevertheless, media commentators on either side try to portrait these candidates as if they supported, or at least "enabled" extremists.

Can you be more specific on how either of these candidates "enable" or "do not enable" extremism? How would you falsify an accusation of "enabling" something?