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welshwelsh

577 karma · joined August 30, 2021

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welshwelsh··on Bypassing GitHub Actions policies in the dumbest way possible
Nobody outside of the IT security bubble thinks that using AppLocker is a sensible idea.

Companies have no business telling their employees which specific programs they can and cannot run to do their jobs, that's an absurd level of micromanagement.

welshwelsh··on Amazon to display tariff costs for consumers
What's wrong with Amazon trying to make a political point?

Amazon is obviously trying to pressure the Trump admin into easing the tariffs. Why wouldn't they? Why shouldn't they? Amazon is as much a political actor as any other company, and they have a major stakeholder when it comes to tariff policy.

welshwelsh··on America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back
Manufacturing doesn't have to involve large amounts of low-skill manual labor. It can be highly automated and serve as a source of jobs for engineers.
welshwelsh··on Brazil's government-run payments system has become dominant
We should focus on getting rid of KYC, instead of giving up on privacy and security.
welshwelsh··on Let's Ban Billboards
There is zero chance that capitalism will solve this problem.

Even if you personally choose not to buy overly advertised goods, the overwhelming majority of people will not make the same choice. Advertising works extremely well, and it will always work no matter what you or I do.

So we will still have the problem of excessive advertising, which negatively impacts even people who try to ignore that advertising.

welshwelsh··on Goblin.tools: simple, single-task tools to help neurodivergent people with tasks
>my intense hyperfocus on one thing at a time but also inability to keep consistently focused on one thing for more than a few weeks

Sounds extremely normal to me. I wonder what I'm missing.

For example, suppose a typical person decides to learn a new language.

At the beginning, they are very excited and enthusiastic about it. They might buy a textbook, download an app or sign up for language classes, and spend lots of time on it for a couple of days.

After a week or two, as the tediousness sets in and the goal seems farther off than they expected, they start to shift their focus to something else. After a month, there's a 50/50 chance they completely forget about language study and stop doing it. Only a very small minority will last more than a year.

That's what I'd consider normal. How is ADHD different?

Another example: meditation. A new meditation practitioner may try to focus on their breathing, but then find they usually get distracted and start thinking about something else within 10 seconds.

I have a feeling that if I were to say "I find it difficult to focus my attention on something for 10 seconds without getting distracted", many would reply "that sounds like ADHD." But this is, in fact, quite normal.

welshwelsh··on Ask HN: Former devs who can't get a job, what did you end up doing for work?
The average office worker is productive for less than 3 hours per day https://www.vouchercloud.com/better-living/office-worker-pro...

That's normal across all industries. If there are people who are actually productive for 7 hours per day, they are extreme outliers.

I used to think that I worked 8-10 hours per day. That was until I measured my actual productivity.

I worked as a translator once. When I timed myself, I found that I can translate about 2,000 words in 1 hour. But in a day, I struggle to do more than 5,000 words, no matter how hard I push myself- even though that's just 2.5 hours of work! And if I do 5,000 words every day, I burn out within a week.

welshwelsh··on 41% of companies worldwide plan to reduce workforces by 2030 due to AI
Replacing a CEO would save a lot less money than replacing even a small percentage of workers.

The typical CEO of a F500 company makes $17.7 million compensation. That might seem like a lot, but it's only about 0.04% of the average F500 revenue, which is $42 billion.

On the other hand, the average F500 has about 65000 employees and payroll expenses can easily be upwards of $5 billion. About 300 times as much money is spent on employees than on the CEO!

welshwelsh··on What we know about CEO shooting suspect
Executive salaries represent less than 0.01% of UHG revenue.

Total revenue is about $320B. Thompson's compensation was $1M cash + about $10m stock (the stock part doesn't impact the company's profit margin).

In any case, executive salaries are basically a rounding error in the books.

welshwelsh··on A Week of Failing to Pay with Bitcoin in El Salvador
That might seem like a bad thing if you're a government trying to boost consumer spending so you can keep the economy running.

But from a consumer's perspective, deflation is a feature. I don't want to spend my money! I want to save it, and to be rewarded for saving it, so that by consuming less I can also work less.

Why would I hand over my Bitcoin for some bread? Because I'm hungry and need to eat. Otherwise yes, I'll save my money for later, no need for needless and wasteful spending.

welshwelsh··on A single cloud compromise can feed an army of AI sex bots
Wow. Honestly, no part of my brain is screaming about possible escalation, it's something I'm not worried about in the slightest. Why would someone risk their freedom and harm another person IRL by committing a serious crime, when they could get the same stimulation from a computer program?

But let's say we do live in a world where fictional crimes often escalate to real ones. Suppose that playing DOOM increases the chance that an unstable person will buy a gun and shoot real people. Even in that universe, I would not be OK with laws that restrict me from playing DOOM, because that violates my freedom. I do not want the law to treat everyone as a potential criminal.

welshwelsh··on I Am Tired of AI
I thought the big thing with computers is that they are much cheaper than humans.

If we are evaluating LLM suitability for tasks typically performed by humans, we should judge them by the same standards we judge humans. That means it's OK to make mistakes sometimes.

welshwelsh··on Uber charges more if you have credits in your account
If a driver's average rating falls below 4.6 Uber typically removes them from the platform. A rating of less than 5 stars is treated similarly to if a customer reported a driver for poor service.
welshwelsh··on Brazil Court votes unanimously to uphold X ban. Users switch to Threads, Bluesky
I'm glad they didn't comply. I don't want social media platforms banning people just because some national government told them to.
welshwelsh··on Brazil's X ban is sending lots of people to Bluesky
A court ordering for social media accounts to be blocked is censorship, no question about that.

If there are "election rules" that regulate what can be posted online, that's censorship. Even if people are inciting violence or formenting revolution, banning them is censorship.

Most governments participate in censorship, and most people are OK with some level of censorship. But Brazil's constitution guarantees freedom of speech without censorship, so their courts have no business issuing orders to censor social media.

welshwelsh··on No one expects young men to do anything and they respond by doing nothing (2022)
What I took away from this article is that many low-income men have no real interest in being fathers or raising children. Yet, they tend to produce children anyway.

We should focus on making birth control more accessible, instead of trying to make people take responsibility for raising children they obviously don't want.

That guy who spends all his money on weed and booze while his kids go hungry? He should have gotten a vasectomy. We need to be asking why he didn't- was it a lack of education, or was the procedure too expensive?

welshwelsh··on The Death of NYC Congestion Pricing
There are still plenty of roads though, which shouldn't exist in a dense city like Manhattan. We have a long way to go still
welshwelsh··on FBI raids Atlanta corporate landlord in probe of rental market price fixing
RealPage's formula is largely the opposite of that.

Before RealPage, most large landlords would aim for 97-98% occupancy and set their rents accordingly.

RealPage would encourage landlords to instead aim for 90-95% occupancy by setting higher rents. Most of the time, this turned out to be a more profitable strategy, even though it makes property managers nervous because they feel like empty apartments = lost money.

welshwelsh··on Sal Khan is pioneering innovation in education again
While these are all valid concerns, they also apply to human teachers. Humans spew bullshit all the time.

But that's OK. A teacher's knowledge doesn't need to be perfect, it just needs to be better than the student's.

If ChatGPT explains Chinese history in a way that is 80% accurate, to a student whose understanding of Chinese history is 10% accurate, the student will walk away with a better understanding of Chinese history.

welshwelsh··on What the Supreme Court case on tent encampments could mean for homeless people
The purpose of the government is to serve the interests of the taxpayers that fund it. Not to transfer resources from taxpayers to non-taxpayers.
welshwelsh··on Bluesky's stackable approach to moderation
You make a good point about on-topic moderation. But I think this misses something.

Rejecting a cell microbiology paper from a computer science journal is not an attempt to suppress the paper. If anything, it is of benefit to the paper, since publishing it in the correct journal will increase it's visibility to the relevant audiences.

In contrast, content moderation, particularly in political subreddits is often motivated by tribalism and a desire to suppress particular viewpoints. It's true that these people could just go to another subreddit, but by the same logic reporters in Russia could just go to another country.

The effect of this type of moderation is that it creates tribes or "communities" of people who have similar opinions and never encounter opposing viewpoints.

Moderating based on topic is different than censorship based on viewpoint. If an argument is allowed but it's counterargument is not, that's censorship, not moderation.

welshwelsh··on Facing reality about the EU is a core requirement for good management
I'm skeptical of this interpretation.

There is a middle ground between people making $20 an hour and business tycoons. Policies that help big business might not trickle down to people stocking shelves, but they often advantage middle class people.

For example, the US is an excellent place for software engineers. There are far more of them and they make far higher salaries than their European counterparts. Is it unreasonable to believe that American policies that empower big tech companies also benefit a developer making $250k at Google, even though he does not own the company?

What if policies that benefit the top 1% did, in fact, trickle down to the top 30% of Americans, at the expense of the bottom 70%? What if this bloc of people was organized enough to win elections and control politics without relying on people delusionally voting against their own interests?

welshwelsh··on AI PR adds auto generated comments to whole Spring Boot Project
You don't think it's possible to integrate an AI system with JIRA so that it can link to the relevant tickets?
welshwelsh··on Being Poor vs. Feeling Poor
He might have not founded Amazon if he was poor, but that's not a question anyone was asking.

The overwhelming majority of people, if they were given $245,573 in 1993, would not go on to build a trillion-dollar company. What Bezos accomplished was extraordinary, whatever way you look at it.

welshwelsh··on Artificial General Intelligence – A gentle introduction
What counts as "human level"?

I would contend that a 5-year-old has general intelligence, and therefore an AI system with the language and reasoning abilities of a 5-year-old has artificial general intelligence.

But the discriminator of having to "pay an intelligent professional otherwise" sets the bar very high. That implies AGI must be an expert in every subject, surpassing the average human. I'd prefer we use a different term for that, like "artificial superintelligence."

welshwelsh··on Want employees to return to the office? Then give each one an office
No need to wait, the future is now. I've already seen huge gains in income and work-life balance by spending time automating my workflow.

I hope that by "trickle down to the workers" you aren't talking about technically illiterate workers who are not actively contributing to the automation effort. Unfortunately, they will receive some benefits as well, which is completely undeserved.

welshwelsh··on Catching up on the weird world of LLMs
I would have said d. XXX. My reasoning being that in sets 1 and 2, the third tile has an X in every space where the first or second tile has an X.

Anyway, it seems to me that you are holding AI to a higher standard than humans.

Abstract reasoning abilities do not imply the ability to solve every abstract reasoning problem. Even humans cannot do that. If there is even a single abstract reasoning problem ChatGPT can solve, that means it has abstract reasoning abilities.

Similarly, general intelligence does not imply the ability to solve any problem. It means problem-solving abilities that are not restricted to a specific task or domain. ChatGPT has general intelligence because it can handle situations that it was not explicitly programmed to handle in a wide variety of contexts.

welshwelsh··on The back-to-office backfire: Companies ending WFH perks lose out on top talent
You're assuming less hours = less pay, which is unwarranted.

Someone who is at work for 40 hours is not necessarily "working more" than someone who is at work for 30 hours, it just means they are less efficient. If both workers produce the same output, they should be paid the same.

In many cases, it's easy to make a 40 hour job into a 5 hour job with proper planning and automation. But since workers are required to be at the office for 40 hours a week anyway, the work "expands" to fill the time with useless meetings and time-consuming manual processes.

welshwelsh··on CEOs’ pay climbed before layoffs at tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft
That's why you'll never make CEO pay. Most people, myself included, will happily retire with a couple million.

A lot of these people have ambitions that require a lot more money than that. Maybe they want to cure aging or explore space or something.

Another way of looking at it: if someone makes 100m a year and they are thinking about retiring, how much would you need to offer for them to choose to work another year instead? That's how much you need to pay them next year.

welshwelsh··on Why We'll Stay Remote
I consider those people to be on the "I want to work in an office" side.

Companies with RTO policies still usually give the option to work from home a couple days a week, right? Just not every day. You still need to live within commuting distance of an office, which is a pretty big restriction.

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