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vearwhershuh

717 karma · joined October 7, 2019

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vearwhershuh··on Our Political System Is Hostile to Real Reform
The United States is ungovernable in any coherent manner, except as an empire. It's far too large and culturally incompatible. There is no logical reason the people of appalachia should be governed by people on the west coast, or vice versa.

The real power centers, the banking, corporate and foreign-policy elites, are content to govern the empire indirectly, and keep us all fighting with one another over things like pronouns, so long as wages are ruthlessly suppressed.

It will keep going. Until it stops.

vearwhershuh··on Covid-19: Landlords will kill our economy
Proposal: set an immediate 3% interest rate ceiling on all credit cards. This eliminates the immediate cash crunch that everyone is feeling. If a cc company complains, nationalize them.

Then take six months to put together a comprehensive debt-forgiveness program that looks at income, family situation, etc. Forgive things like food, rent, etc. Slowly increase the interest rate cap as the economy recovers.

We need ongoing money in peoples hands now to put everyone at ease that they aren't going to be out on the streets in a week with their kids, not a piddling one-time payment in a month.

vearwhershuh··on States reject Trump talk of restarting U.S. economy early
My Proposal: Set a 3% limit on credit card interest for the next six months. If a credit card company complains, nationalize it. Use the six months to set up a debt-forgiveness plan that works for middle and low income earners. At the end of six months, consider lifting the limit incrementally.

Get spending power into the hands of common people and ease the cash-crunch anxiety immediately, without any stupid one time payments that will be too late, won't be large enough to help, and require the entire legislative branch to agree.

vearwhershuh··on Covid-19 in Hungary: Viktor Orbán pursues dictatorial powers
Compare and contrast with the highest voted comment here:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22663106

"If there’s anything the current debacles in Europe and the U.S. has taught us, it’s that selfish and/or irrational jerks abound, and asking nicely doesn’t work at all."

Who, whom?

vearwhershuh··on Psychologists figure out why your toxic colleagues climb to the top at work
Everything I needed to learn about corporate psychology I learned from ribbonfarm:

https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2009/10/07/the-gervais-principle-...

vearwhershuh··on JPMorgan Chase and Citibank Have $2.96T Exposure to Credit Default Swaps
The timing isn't random. In an economy as debt-addled as ours, any time there is a major economic crisis the banking system is going to be exposed and require a massive bailout.

This is obvious to everyone, so it is either by design or the elites are indifferent to the situation.

vearwhershuh··on This project posts one new startup idea every day for a year
ice cream trucks but for toilet paper
vearwhershuh··on Stop the Coronavirus Corporate Coup
> if people on the populist left and people on the populist right work together.

Yes.

vearwhershuh··on I’m Bill Gates. AMA about Covid-19
I think one lesson we might learn here is that having domestic capacity for most essential supplies is a worthwhile endeavor, even if it costs a bit more per lot.
vearwhershuh··on I’m Bill Gates. AMA about Covid-19
Exactly my point. I agree entirely.
vearwhershuh··on I’m Bill Gates. AMA about Covid-19
Ah, well, that explains it. Mask technology is extremely advanced, after all.

And how long does it take to produce a safe, well tested vaccine that we are supposed to give to our kids?

vearwhershuh··on I’m Bill Gates. AMA about Covid-19
How about these rich guys just open a domestic mask factory or two? I think I'd like to see that as an ante in the "Here is how you should all live going forward" game.
vearwhershuh··on Gavin Newsom: 56% of California will be infected with coronavirus in 8 weeks
I don't know where you live, but where I live they have issued a shelter in place order and my understanding is that this is widespread.

If 56% of the state gets the virus under a shelter in place order, either we all already have it or the virus is so virulent that even limited runs for essentials is extremely risky.

vearwhershuh··on Gavin Newsom: 56% of California will be infected with coronavirus in 8 weeks
Ad free-ish at the Sac Bee:

https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241349341.htm...

If 56% of CA is infected in 2 months then we aren't being told something about this virus.

vearwhershuh··on Questioning the Clampdown
Anyone concerned with individual rights should be concerned at the government responses. H1N1 caused 10K+ deaths and infected tens of millions in the US, and we had nothing even remotely approximating this response.

This is not to say that we shouldn't be concerned and diligent in our efforts at containment, but that we should also be concerned and diligent about our liberty. Right now I see a lot of emphasis on the former and almost none on the latter, and anyone who voices concerns is labeled a crackpot or worse.

vearwhershuh··on Giving Americans Money to Offset Coronavirus Impact Gains Support in Congress
I sincerely hope they do this as debt-free greenbacks.
vearwhershuh··on One way to fight a coronavirus recession: $1k for every American
We can afford it if we print the money, that is, it is debt-free money. The fear if we print the money is inflation, but, as Steve Keen has shown, in the current situation inflation isn't going to happen, especially if we put the focus of this money on paying down debt.

I really highly recommend reading Keen's stuff.

vearwhershuh··on Dow Falls 2997 points worst drop since 1987 crash
The current S&P P/E ratio is still higher than it was at any other time except the 1920s bubble, the .com boom, and the top of the 1960s bull market.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

There are problems comparing the P/E over time periods this long, but it is a cautionary datapoint.

vearwhershuh··on A Modern Debt Jubilee
Executive Summary: A Modern Jubilee would create fiat money in the same way as with Quantitative Easing, but would direct that money to the bank accounts of the public with the requirement that the first use of this money would be to reduce debt.
vearwhershuh··on One way to fight a coronavirus recession: $1k for every American
I agree. The best thing would be a modern debt jubilee, coupled with direct payment for public labor with debt-free money from the government. This was implemented by a certain unmentionable and won him the widespread adulation of his country despite his other rather significant faults.
vearwhershuh··on One way to fight a coronavirus recession: $1k for every American
Number 3 will not create inflation. Not in all cases and not in our current environment. That is a myth pushed by the banks in order to keep the current system in place.

Debt spends the same as money. We have already had the inflation, paid for with debt. Now the debt system is becoming unstable and will lead to deflation unless we put non-debt spending power in the average persons hands.

Read Keen's site, he explains the situation:

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/manifesto/

Most economists view debt as a wash. "We owe it to ourselves." But, at Keen demonstrates, that isn't the case. We need a debt jubilee if we want the economy to function properly again, and he, alone and mocked by any mainstream economist who actually paid attention to him, came up with a modern, fair way to do it.

vearwhershuh··on One way to fight a coronavirus recession: $1k for every American
Obviously there is a level that makes sense and a level that does not. Using the big-bank/government debt-system to manage our money supply is no more or less free market than a citizens dividend, it just ensures that the wealthy get first dibs on the new money and then the rest of us pay interest on it.

Steve Keen's idea for a modern debt jubilee is more important for the long term growth of the economy:

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/manifesto/

I get where you are coming from, but the current system is completely out of control, as always happens with a usury-based economy.

vearwhershuh··on One way to fight a coronavirus recession: $1k for every American
This is how we should manage the money supply, and it should be monthly. Direct, debt free issuance of a citizens dividend to every US citizen. Coupled with a wind-down of the debt bubble. Maybe take Steve Keen's idea and require that a certain portion of the payment be used to extinguish any debts.

Unfortunately whenever a president starts talking about this, he has a tendency to be shot.

vearwhershuh··on Do hierarchies lead to a stronger society?
It's a very shallow article, as one would expect. Most committed liberals (in the classical sense of the word, NB that in the US both parties are liberal by this definition) can't conceive that there are any problems created by liberalism that might be addressed via illiberal systems, and therefore give both left wing and right wing critics very little hearing.

Despite not being a libertarian or (non-ironic) monarchist at the time, I found this to be an interesting and thought provoking book:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy:_The_God_That_Failed

It argues for monarchism as a better alternative than democracy for libertarians. The premise, on it's own, is interesting enough and the author makes quite a case for it.

vearwhershuh··on Microsoft plots the end of Visual Basic
Back in the very old days I wrote Excel Apps in VBA. You could pull an entire range in as a 2d array and dump it back out the same way.

The debugging environment was better than any I have used since. You could drag the execution point anywhere, edit code in between steps, view everything. It was amazing.

IntelliJ is pretty good now, but not like that.

vearwhershuh··on Peacetime CEO/Wartime CEO (2011)
I'm indifferent towards the content of this article, but a meta-point: it is interesting how our civilian society has militarized so thoroughly. There are the obvious things like the militarization of the police forces, but it has trickled down to seemingly frivolous things like "Cupcake Wars" and "Cutthroat Kitchen".

I wonder if this is organic or not.

vearwhershuh··on [dead]
This is a crash, not really a bear market, it's happening too fast.

This is what a bear market looks like:

https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical...

NB: The graph is log scale, uncheck that to see what the fun looks like on a day-to-day/month-to-month basis.

Until we prioritize dividends over capital gains in the tax code, we can expect these massive swings due to investor sentiment and liquidity. As I have said elsewhere: make dividends deductible to the company (akin to LLCs) and tax capital gains at a windfall rate. Watch how fast the financial world sobers up.

vearwhershuh··on Devil’s Haircut
The article isn't bad but it beats around the bush quite a bit.

The reality is that the architectual establishment is largely responsible for destroying the aesthetic inheritance in the west. Kunstler lays this out for the layman in "Geography of Nowhere".

It was a confluence of events: the architectual establishments hatred of traditionalism and regional forms, combined with the corporate elites love of the inexpensive, anti-skilled labor, massed man internationalist style.

As the article mentions, we will continue to cycle around in various modernisms that reject one another in a simulacrum of progress while, to the layman, offering nothing of aesthetic merit. What will not be considered, until after the revolution, is a return to the forms that created the towns and cities we all love.

Meanwhile, any remaining charming old neighborhoods are bid to the moon, and Christopher Alexander is read mostly by software designers.

vearwhershuh··on Open Source Initiative bans co-founder, Eric S Raymond
"The worse, the better." -Nikolay Chernyshevsky
vearwhershuh··on Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet
lol fine:

Banking shouldn't have a reserve ratio. Rather, banks should have to show that they have a claim to each dollar they have loaned out for the period they have loaned it. This means they have to lend short and borrow long.

The insight here is that the problem with banking since time immemorial is rooted in a lie: multiple people have claims of ownership on the same dollar at the same point in time. Rather than using a reserve ratio to paper over this lie, we should simply ban lying. Banks offer CD like products that lock up money for a certain amount of time, and that money can be loaned out for a period less than or equal to that amount of time.

Practically this would imply a balance curve for a bank at time T, B(T) and their loan curve L(T) would need <= B(T) for all T. You would be able to see if a bank was in trouble way out in advance.

Again, this would mean that banks would not need a reserve ratio. A dollar could theoretically be lended out an infinite number of times, so long as the dollar was put back into the bank at a term longer than the next demanded loan.

Finally, I would make banks a special entity partnership, where partners were held liable for losses up to a certain % of revenues.

Yes, I am this much fun at parties.

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