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unexpected

1,349 karma · joined October 20, 2007

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unexpected··on Colleges at the breaking point, forcing ‘hard choices’ about education
$10,000 a semester is cheap. The current price at the university I attended is $73k a year.
unexpected··on Colleges at the breaking point, forcing ‘hard choices’ about education
I disagree a bit. The big name schools can get away with charging their current prices, but small schools would radically re-think. No more football stadiums, fancy dorms, etc. People still need to get educated. The rest of the world has universities with sensible pricing - only the US is an anomaly.
unexpected··on Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending
I wish I could find a news source for this, but english newspapers suck in their coverage. I was actually in Kuwait as this happened, so I know it's 100% true. I spent that day being driven around at 130 mph in some guys's new porsche 911 turbo s. Energy industry is wild.
unexpected··on Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending
exactly what exhilaration says below! I work in the oil and gas business. U.S. independent oil companies are survivors. If I have to pick between the U.S. shale producer or Saudi kingdrom, I'll pick the U.S. shale producer every time.
unexpected··on Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending
Saudi makes up shit when they say their extraction costs are $3/barrel. A lot of clever accounting in that one. Actual extraction costs are roughly $10-$15/barrel.
unexpected··on Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending
Every Arab ruler has tried to do this for decades, but this is a HARD problem:

1) Their climate sucks 2) They have very little arable land and lack water 3) Production of electricity is expensive 4) A lot of interior cities - not a lot of port access

So, from a geographical perspective, what is SA supposed to produce that gives them a comparative advantage against the rest of the world? Then you move into the political/religious aspects:

1) Uneducated workforce, despite offering scholarships to study abroad for every one of their citizens 2) They import most of their labor from other countries, ergo, their labor costs are higher with respect to the rest of the world. A factory in India will be cheaper than a factory in SA, all else being equal.

These disadvantages make the only real route to a viable economy a service-based one. This is what Dubai has done - Dubai has done their damndest to establish free trade zones, a legal framework, and a tax regime to get companies to establish their MENA HQ's there (and they've done so accordingly). SA is WAY behind on this (I would argue irrecoverably behind).

unexpected··on Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending
Dubai is definitely a tourist destination, and it's not just for hyper-wealthy people. They get a huge amount of middle class tourism from South Asia and China. There's a wide variety of hotels, from 2* to 7* and you can stay in a superb 5* hotel for $150/night.

It feels like a destination for the hyper-wealthy to Americans because our tourist offerings here are so much better - but not everyone can come here. My best analogy for Dubai is that it's like Vegas without the gambling - and while that may suck for some people, it can definitely be done. Vegas is also done at every price point!

unexpected··on Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending
Qatar makes 95% of their revenue on LNG. These are long-term contracts at fixed prices. Kuwait and Qatar also have the fewest amount of actual citizens that it would need to "pay off".

Ex: During the Arab Spring, Kuwait handed out $500k checks to all Kuwaiti males above 18 years old. He also told the citizenry that he would forgive all car loans - population went and bought ferraris, range rovers, etc. and got the loans all forgiven by the government.

I worry more about the Arab countries that have high populations and cannot afford to pay everyone off - Saudi is on that list.

unexpected··on Coronavirus Work from Home Model
Man, I'm trying to just copy the model and keep getting the error "The file might be unavailable to heavy traffic". Never seen that before.
unexpected··on Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools
I disagree here. Denmark is acting proactively and shutting down schools for 2 weeks. This is a "rip the band aid off early" type of move. By shutting down everything for 2 weeks, they effectively self-quarantine during the entire incubation period and will dramatically slow the rate of the virus.

China, on the other hand, did not do this, and they were forced to shut down schools for 6 months.

These moves are HARD and painful, but the key to stopping a pandemic is acting overly aggressive and far-reaching. The USA is not doing nearly enough. We're going to be Italy in about 2 weeks.

unexpected··on How Allstate’s auto insurance algorithm squeezes big spenders
Car insurance is not that opaque. They are fairly standard policies, with only a few optional items. An independent insurance broker can quickly navigate through these for you.

You're right, though, that what insures promise to do and what they'll do are two different things - its hard to price that in upfront. I don't think the insurer in question, State Farm, is exceptional in that regard either. They dropped a family members coverage after 2 hail storms. They dropped a friend's company's policies after a single claim.

State Farm makes its money by bilking people with it's solo agent model. "Talk to your friendly neighborhood State Farm agent"...who only gets quotes from State Farm.

We would not do that in any other industry. Insurance is a commodity. It's like electronic items. We price hunt Amazon vs. Newegg vs Monoprice because we're nerds, we should do the same thing from our insurance providers.

You don't have to settle on some no-name insurance agency - you can set a high bar, but expanding your marketplace of options from 1 to 5 or 6 can only mean good things for you as a consumer.

unexpected··on How Allstate’s auto insurance algorithm squeezes big spenders
if you've been with State Farm for over a decade, I would reckon you're getting hosed. State Farm agents only get quote from State Farm - they're not an independent brokerage. When I was shopping around (mid-30's, family, standard 2 cars) in the DFW area, they were the most expensive.

Go check out an independent insurance agent. It's not "gaming" it literally takes 20-30 minutes, and could save you $1500 over the whole year (especially if you have multiple cars).

To "nudge" you in the right direction, buy not switching, you're basically saying, "I make money at $1000/hour, so it's okay that I don't expend the mental budget to compare quotes".

unexpected··on Unofficial Winamp Web Site
Does anyone else remember the mp3 player wars? Sonique, NAD, Winamp...it was like the early Android/iOS split of the mid-90's. I remember so much from that era!
unexpected··on The Curious Case of Aurelius Capital vs. Puerto Rico
...and this is where Puerto Rico's status comes into picture. PR's tax rate at the highest level is 33%. If you want to go higher, wealthy Puerto Ricans just decamp to Florida (no state income taxes!) and fly in as needed. The corporate tax base has also dwindled. Still, PR has raised taxes - across the board, but due to the wealthy's ability to decamp, these tax increases are disproportionately felt by the middle and lower classes.

Additionally, the costs of goods and services is much higher than in the states. GDP per capita doesn't measure purchase power parity, and your dollars in PR don't go nearly as far as they do in the USA. Energy costs, water costs, shipping costs, are all much higher in other countries, and legislation (such as the Jones Act) that helps mainland USA hurts PR.

PR is trapped, and has a perpetual brain drain of people escaping. It has a negative population growth of -2% a year (in a heavily Catholic country), and GDP growth has been negative for 13 years in a row. More austerity measures are not going to help the situation.

unexpected··on The Curious Case of Aurelius Capital vs. Puerto Rico
the wealth is not there - that's the point I'm making. Hurricane Maria cost $140 billion. Puerto Rico's GDP is $100 billion. They need to repay $75 billion in bonds, and they have $50 billion in unfunded pension liabilities.

Using GDP per capita (which is the wealth per person) is a very poor measure for the overall size of the economy.

This is akin to saying a SV silicon valley engineer who makes $250k a year should be able to pay his $2 million mortgage when he all of a sudden gets hit with $300k in medical expenses because he got hit by a bus while riding his scooter without a helmet - fuck it, he's wealthy. He just needs to budget better.

unexpected··on The Curious Case of Aurelius Capital vs. Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico is desperately poor. GDP per capita is a poor measure of income inequality. 45% of Puerto Ricans live below the poverty line. Italy's economy is literally 20x the size of Puerto Rico. If Puerto Rico was a state, it would be the poorest state in the U.S. It's unemployment rate is double the United States.

Hurricane Maria has caused $140 billion of damages to a country with a GDP of $100 million. What would the U.S. look like if it had a natural disaster that cost $20 trillion in damages?

It sounds like you need to make a visit and drive around. Some parts of the island still don't have power, even today.

unexpected··on Uber’s self-driving car could not detect pedestrians outside of a crosswalk
In Texas, you cannot even go around a stopped school bus. Very expensive ticket ($400!)
unexpected··on Amazon won't spin off AWS. That's hurting AWS
he's saying "other retailers pushing down to their partners". Other retailers (Target/Wal Mart/etc) won't work with companies that use AWS.
unexpected··on Thunderbird 68.0
We can date ourselves by what email clients we have used!
unexpected··on Thunderbird 68.0
I have read the book, and I don't think it's a case study of Python - it's a case study on releasing an MVP. Chandler tried to do every.single.thing right out of the gate, and got bogged down. What would have happened if it just focused on email?
unexpected··on Fake-branded bars slip dirty gold into world markets
you can also identify where oil has come from based on a sample of it. Oils have unique signatures for different regions.
unexpected··on Thunderbird 68.0
Thunderbird, Chandler....feels like ages ago.
unexpected··on H-1B: Federal judge backs government’s narrower view of ‘specialty occupation’
This is not true - in your Congo example, the driver claimed asylum, won his case, and then was able to apply for his green card. You cannot go from illegal immigrant to green card directly. Many people don't win their asylum cases and are deported.
unexpected··on Apple begins exporting India-made iPhones to European markets
Let's use your reasons, but look at it from the opposite side: 1) The largest contributor to the poor air quality in India is the practice of burning to clear fields, cook stoves that use wood, and the burning of cow dung [https://www.vox.com/2018/5/8/17316978/india-pollution-levels...].

One easy way to bring these people out of poverty is to provide them with good economic opportunities (like factory jobs!). High-tech factories would demand cleaner, more stable power (natural gas, nuclear instead of coal, wood, cow dung).

2) India's totally overpopulated, agreed. One way to decrease the population growth is to bring these people out of poverty. Every developed country has seen their birth rate decline once they move to the middle class. These guys need jobs, college, etc, and people will start having less kids!

unexpected··on C. Hoare and Co., a British banking dynasty in business for more than 300 years
1) They're old, but they're not that big - book value is "only" 370 million pounds. 2) They're not Jewish. A lot of the diatribes directed at the Rothschilds are anti-semitic in origin.
unexpected··on Joyent Public Cloud EOL
another fun fact: a lot of the early HackerNews posts were the daily drama of Twitter's RoR struggles.
unexpected··on The End of an Era for EasyDNS
man the headline made me nervous - thought this was going to be another "we're shutting down" post!
unexpected··on A Spoon That Shakes to Counteract Hand Tremors (2014)
These guys sold their company to Google!
unexpected··on Amazon customers will be able to return purchases to any Kohl’s store in July
Kohl's is king of overpricing items to then offer massive sales through "Kohl's points", coupons, etc. Their retail prices are B.S. I don't know anyone that pays retail at Kohl's - people shop there to brag about how much of a 'deal' they're getting, which isn't much of a deal at all.
unexpected··on How I Eat for Free in NYC Using Python, Automation, AI, and Instagram
I mean, I agree with you philosophically, but he's not stealing their photos - he's re-sharing other people's photos and giving credit back to their pages. This is common Instagram practice - it's essentially a "re-tweet".

If he were copying and pasting the images, that's one thing, but what he's doing has no losers - it amplifies the original user and falls within acceptable instagram practices.

That doesn't mean that I don't feel slimy about the whole thing.

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