2,088 karma · joined November 4, 2007
I appreciate that he shared his story, though.
A lot of films with budget below 1 mil. (although some of them are very old and you have to take inflation into account)
Well, that's the case when you glimpse from the window. Probably I'm wrong but I don't see why there is a fix, you still don't know if you see a G in GB or in BG or in GG
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Nebulous Neighbours:
Your new neighbours have two children of unknown gender. From older to younger, they are equally likely to be girl-girl, girl-boy, boy-girl, or boy- boy. One day you catch a glimpse of a child through their window, and you see that it is a girl. What is the probability that their other child is also a girl?
Solution.
The probabilities that a glimpsed child will be a girl for each of the four possi- bilities (girl-girl, girl-boy, boy-girl, and boy-boy) are respectively 1, 1/2, 1/2, and 0. Since the probabilities must add to 1, the probabilities of these four possibilities are respectively 1/2, 1/4, 1/4, and 0. Hence, the probability is 1/2 that the other child is also a girl.
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Can someone explain how glimpsing to one child and seeing that is a girl is different from hearing the parent saying that one child is a girl? How come and getting the same information from your eyes instead of your ears changes the probabilities? (1/2 for the other child to be a boy when seeing, 2/3 when hearing).
Anyone that can explain this?
I hope you don't include the Economist.
Are they?