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tuberelay

101 karma · joined February 10, 2019

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tuberelay··on Hetzner Cloud Goes US (Ashburn/VA)
Anyone know how I can invest/get exposure to hetzner as a business? Doesn't seem to be a public company.

I can honestly see these guys becoming a HUGE cloud provider.

tuberelay··on 2021 Nobel Prize for Economics
There are big questions about the amount of gravitas that mainstream economists are afforded by people in power.

Misnaming the econ prize as a "Nobel" prize and placing it's winners on the level of great physicists, chemists etc risks in exacerbating this problem.

Much of the research done by econ memorial prize winners is walked back or proven false later. It isn't hard science. Much of it is politically driven and advice and practitioners are used by politicians to justify certain actions, many of them dysfunctional or corrupt.

tuberelay··on China blocks Wikimedia from entering World Intellectual Property Organization
China corrupts any global organization it touches.
tuberelay··on Show HN: Extract Table from Image
UI Path does this in a nice way
tuberelay··on Thai baby elephant hit by motorcycle survives after receiving CPR
The elephant didn't have a cardiac arrest and humanity shouldn't get "feel-goods" about this crap.
tuberelay··on MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Debt Bet
Based comment, 10/10. Feel bad for these rubes. We're currently in the "giant sucking sound and harbor incomprehensibly drains" phase of the hard money tsunami, and people can't see it.
tuberelay··on S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021
21M is the basis of bitcoin for most hodlers.

Any fork or decision by anyone to change this 21M number means that for me (and most hardcore bitcoiners I know) the chain which sticks to Satoshi's 21M becomes the REAL bitcoin chain.

21M is non negotiable. If it doesn't have 21M, it simply isn't BTC.

tuberelay··on Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist
Dow dropped 90% in great depression, so even trading the dow with 10% leverage would've wiped you out.

Dow also dropped >50% in GFC, so 2x leverage would've ended you.

Taking ultra risky bets when you are young is sensible because it isn't actually risky. This is because for a 30yo with good career prospects, your future career is probably worth an amortized $5 million dollars. If you have $200k in savings, that is only 4% of your true net worth. If you lose it, you still really have $5 million dollars. Therefore playing loose with it is pretty reasonable.

If you're 63 and will retire in 2 years, your amortized future career earnings are probably $200k and your assets $5million, and then you should be conservative.

tuberelay··on Xi Jinping personally halted Ant's IPO after Jack Ma snubbed government leaders
China only farms out the scammy companies to US exchanges. Luckin coffee, TAL education, iqiyi
tuberelay··on Former CEO of RadioShack now an ER doctor on frontlines of Covid-19 fight
Anaesthesiologist here.

I did EM for 6 months and hated it. This is because it just doesn't suit my personality.

To be good at EM you need to be: - Comfortable with being a kinda bad at everything and great at nothing - Comfortable with large amounts of uncertainty and risk and having to make decisions anyway - Being abused by drunk/mentally ill patients constantly - Being patronized by medical colleagues in other specialties

tuberelay··on Angela Merkel estimates 60% to 70% of the German pop. will contract the virus
Transporting a patient that sick requires a specially trained doctor and nurse, ambulance transfers to helipad/airport, an 8 hour+ return trip, and a high likelihood of giving the disease to a bunch of people at the new centre.

If you had all the resources spare to achieve that, you could just keep them probably.

tuberelay··on Breast cancer detection in mammography using deep learning approach
MD here.

In the short term, more information might cause harm because doctors are risk averse & scared of lawsuits and err on overbiopsy/overtreat, and many of our treatments aren't as good as we think they are, and all of this makes patient anxious.

In the long term, turning the information firehose on full blast means we can work out which incidental findings are best ignored or pursued and overall more data will help us.

The problem is that it is unethical to do #2 in the short term even if it is the long term ethical thing to do.

tuberelay··on Economists’ projections of interest rates and unemployment have proved too high
The official US inflation measure is garbage.

It doesn't include enough of the big 3 costs in people's lives : housing, education and healthcare.

It includes whacky stuff like "oh your cellphone is faster now than 5 years ago, we're going to say that you're getting 10x the phone for roughly the same price and use that to disprove inflation".

It ignores asset inflation (stocks, real estate, venture capital, everything else) driven by QE. The average person never saw the QE because it went straight to banks and inflated asset prices. Rich people with assets made 4x their money. Wage slaves saw none of it. None of this is counted in inflation measures.

tuberelay··on Neural correlates of the DMT experience assessed with multivariate EEG
Did you get to the "break through" level?
tuberelay··on Against Economics
If you print money and then give it all to big banks who use it to ramp up the price of equities, it never really reaches the average person for them to be able to ramp up the price of the basket of things which CPI measures. Inflation here is seen in the stock market tripling, but that isn't included in government measures.
tuberelay··on Saudi Aramco: The message from the world’s biggest and wildest IPO
With a small float and Saudi state owning the other 98% it means that high price can be maintained with little inflow, but global passive equity investors are mandated (I think?) to hold a big chunk of this overpriced equity due to the huge market cap. Anyone know if that is correct?
tuberelay··on Saudi Aramco: The message from the world’s biggest and wildest IPO
2 trillion market cap?

Corrupt russian oil and gas companies trade at 4x earnings. At that valuation with annual earnings of $90 billion aramco should be valued at more like $360 billion.

Sorry, but that's the penalty you pay for being a corrupt journalist murdering autocrat.

tuberelay··on What's Blockchain Good For, Anyway? For Now, Not Much
I disagree with almost all of this. I doubt there's any point arguing the individual points with you though.

Time will tell who is correct.

tuberelay··on What's Blockchain Good For, Anyway? For Now, Not Much
> With the introduction of the US Fed, recessions became less frequent, less damaging, so much so that the period called the Great Moderation still has economists working on exactly how come the previous boom and bust cycle got so smoothed.

Well, this was the narrative up until 2008.

> From what I can find, a large majority of the world's population has access to and uses bank accounts, and the vast majority of the rest use cash to transact wages and purchases.

All of which are at the mercy of whoever is in power at the time. In the past few years: - 80 million turks have lost 80% of the value of their cash savings - 40 million argentines have lost 90% of the value of their cash savings - 30 million venezuelans have lost 99% of the value of their cash savings

Many other countries have high single digit or double digit true rates of inflation. Even the US rate of inflation is likely double what the official measures are.

You think this is good?

tuberelay··on 1.5M Packages a Day Bring Chaos to NYC Streets
I am founding a startup looking to use modern tunneling tech like horizontal directional drilling and pipe-jacking to build networks of tunnels under major cities to allow high speed "just in time" deliveries using small autonomous vehicles.

These would deliver packages, groceries and takeaway meals.

Looking for cofounders/enthusiasts - see:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19131135

tuberelay··on Fake-branded bars slip dirty gold into world markets
How do they know that these bars don't have 10% tungsten content deep inside? Have they drilled them?
tuberelay··on YouTube shuts down 210 Chinese channels posting about Hong Kong
https://www.youtube.com/user/CCTVNEWSbeijing/videos

There are armies of weird looking accounts posting and upvoting obsessively in odd, non-organic patterns. Someone is obviously running a massive sockpuppet army.

tuberelay··on “Angels” that aren’t actually angels, and the problems that poses
Does anyone else think that angel investing seems like an odd concept in that it implies a single person investing a large amount in a very early stage business.

Most people with sub 9 figure net worth should probably steer towards investing in larger derisked businesses as they are unlikely to back the 100+ startups required to get the 1 really big winner.

In contrast, large VCs who have the capacity to invest in several hundred startups are much better suited to this form of investing as they can derisk by having a large portfolio size?

tuberelay··on [dead]
Pierre Omidyar is using his ebay billions to fund the intercept and Glen Greenwald et al to directly attack islamo-skeptics like Sam Harris and push his far-left agenda.
tuberelay··on Lo-fi hiphop beats mixed with live police scanners
filipino air traffic control, a smattering of rain and some micro house does it for me!
tuberelay··on IQ rates are dropping in many developed countries
Premature infants have >10 IQ points drop, and as hospitals reduce their threshold of viability to 24 or 23 weeks, these infants often have really significant cognitive defects. Here in NZ around 1/3 of these infants will fail the end of year exams at age 15, vs 10% of the non-premature population. Fortunately this isn't "negative eugenics" it isn't a change in genes which cause this.
tuberelay··on Trump unveils 'merit-based' immigration policy plan
Japan has almost negligible immigration. I don't think they even record statistics on it - last time they did a few years ago it was a total of 8000 people for a population of 125 million, compared to sweden which took 180,000 with a population of 10 million.

Japan is probably the closest the world has to an ethnostate and could well be described as ethno-supremacists. They don't cop any flack for this because they're not westerners and only white people can be guilty of racism and xenophobia because colonialism (which ignores the fact that japan was a brutal colonial overlord to korea and taiwan).

tuberelay··on Google Wing will deliver to about 100 homes in Canberra
Can engineers please critique the following idea:

Design city size "Spidercam" style delivery systems https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDGAa6ww7S4

3-4 tall pylons with heavy duty winches and kevlar cable linked in the middle to hold a winch system that can lower a delivery box anywhere in the city.

1/4 inch kevlar rope weighs 2lb per 100ft, therefore a 2 mile kevlar rope would weigh 210lbs, but has a load bearing capacity of 9500lbs. So this system would allow accurate delivery anywhere in a 2mile x 2 mile area.

Potentially these could be coupled to allow transfer between areas to allow deliveries to be passed along a chain.

Multiple winches could be stacked on pylons to allow multiple sets of ropes, with winches which are near to delivery/pickup points moved downwards and to lower rope tension to avoid other winches/ropes bumping into them.

tuberelay··on Ask HN: Do you like/use Reddit's redesign?
When I finally get tired of being nagged to install the app and concede, I find the app is exactly like the mobile website, except all my normal browser functions like select/copy, copy image link, find are all non-intuitive or don't exist. Its just so pointless and stupid. Are these guys doing any UX testing?
tuberelay··on Death by a Thousand Clicks: Where Electronic Health Records Went Wrong
Doctor here - honestly, a paper record works great generally.

The really useful low hanging fruit of EHR is an electronic portal for radiology results, blood results, discharge summaries and letters. If you have a way to link family doctor/pharmacy prescriptions with hospitals, thats great too.

My ideal health IT system assuming perfect AI and everything else would be:

- Automatic recording of everything discussed and done between nurses/doctors with no input from the doctor and producing a record which reads in a sensible way

- Automatic prompting for things the doctor/nurse was likely missed or should discuss during a consult (but only to a sensible level of detail)

- Automatic checking for common ommissions, or things that are being done that perhaps shouldn't be, so a patient who has a microcytic anaemia triggers a check to ask a doctor "do you want to order iron studies on this patient?"

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