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treis

9,659 karma · joined November 28, 2017

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treis··on GPT-5 outperforms federal judges in legal reasoning experiment
Not really. Ultimately it's just a job and a job without any tangible benefit to doing well.

Most regular folk that end up in front of a judge would do well to have a quick and predictable decision. It's months to years before things happen in court and are usually gated behind 10s of thousands in legal fees or a ton of effort. To have a judge bot available for a decision immediately is enormously beneficial.

treis··on Oxide raises $200M Series C
Companies spend an eye watering amount of money on AWS relative the underlying hardware cost. There's definitely a market for something like a mainframe that runs K8s, Postgres, Redis, and the like where you buy once and then run forever.

I don't know if it's true or not but it seems like our AWS bill is something like paying the full purchase price of the underlying hardware every month.

treis··on Shifts in U.S. Social Media Use, 2020–2024: Decline, Fragmentation, Polarization (2025)
Right on cue
treis··on U.S. jobs disappear at fastest January pace since great recession
I'm not so sure either have much impact. Economic policy doesn't change much between administrations and Congress has been ineffective for a long time. Politics is mostly culture war things these days.

The Fed seems to be the big driver of the economy. Other than that, the government is moving things at the margins. Even Trumps tariff shenanigans don't seem to have rocked the boat much.

treis··on Tell HN: Another round of Zendesk email spam
That is true. There's a lot of magic that goes into parsing the emails. But end user configuration of the infrastructure of sending didn't really exist when I was there
treis··on Tell HN: Another round of Zendesk email spam
I worked at Zendesk on the email team. I think that's just support being support. The core engineers knew what they were doing.
treis··on Proof of Corn
It's cute but it seems like it's mostly going to come down to hiring a person to grow corn. Pretty cool that an AI can (sort of) do that autonomously but it's not quite the spirit of the challenge.
treis··on Miami, your Waymo ride is ready
Probably but I go back and forth. Likely means that it will end up a mix like taxis and private cars are today
treis··on In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels
Depends on the city. Here in Atlanta we are a "city in a forest" and for older neighborhoods with mature trees it's more common than not.
treis··on Miami, your Waymo ride is ready
I think it fundamentally shifts the cost of transport from marginal to capitalized. Meaning a 20 minute trip is $0.50 of gas and some fraction of the manufacturing cost of the car. Today it's that plus $5-10 to the driver.

It's somewhat equivalent to the advent of trains but on a personal level. In the way that trains made shipping goods across the country more or less free once the rail was built that's what's going to happen to people and packages getting around cities.

treis··on Miami, your Waymo ride is ready
The zombie lots can be consolidated and moved to less desirable areas.

And I think there's some demand shifting that can happen. People get driven to the office in the morning. Deliveries happen during the day and then people are driven home.

It also eliminates the need for parking for a lot of places. A restaurant doesn't need a parking lot if people are primarily arriving in self driving cars.

treis··on Miami, your Waymo ride is ready
I think the pie will grow more than Waymo takes out. Stuff like a plumber realizing they're missing a part. What might be a trip to the supply house can be a self driving delivery instead.

Either way, it's not all that much different. Most of the money spent on getting around a city goes elsewhere through vehicle and gas purchases. Adding the cost of self driving to that probably won't move the needle all that much.

treis··on Meet the Alaska Student Arrested for Eating an AI Art Exhibit
Holy rationalization Batman
treis··on Miami, your Waymo ride is ready
We got these in Atlanta. I haven't had the chance to ride yet but watching them it's pretty clear that they're legit.

I think we're on the cusp of something that will change the landscape of our cities. It's going to revolutionize getting around and take a chunk out of the land dedicated to parking.

treis··on Significant US farm losses persist, despite federal assistance
"retrained as tech support" isn't a real solution either.
treis··on Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries
It's still absurd. Today isn't close to what we saw during the depression or the 70s or desegregation or the Rodney King riot. Besides that, there's no plausible fault line in the military or any sort of ethnic or religious or regional fault line where two sides could form to fight each other.
treis··on Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries
We've literally had a civil war so I'd say your argument is a bit off the mark.
treis··on The microstructure of wealth transfer in prediction markets
Yes? Nobody cares that they killed a bunch of Cuban body guards. Taking down a civilian airliner would have been a big deal.
treis··on American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
For the Euro, lower than last year, higher than 2021, lower than 2017, higher than 2014, much higher than 2008...
treis··on American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
Eggs were the same way. Now they are at their lowest point since 2019 and cost 5% of what they peaked at. There's an inherent volatility in food prices that can't really be helped.
treis··on American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis
I think it's the opposite. These were announced 9 months ago and none of the doomsday predictions have come to pass. There's been major impact to some things but for the most part the economy has hummed along without a blip. Certainly not the everything in Walmart is going to get 34% prognostications that some were making:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43561253

treis··on Eat Real Food
Nope, here's the can:

https://www.kroger.com/p/kroger-garbanzo-beans/0001111010648

treis··on Jensen: 'We've done our country a great disservice' by offshoring
You're using officer/administrator role for your number. The number of people who work in an office or sitting at a desk is much higher. I see numbers ranging from 40-60% for that.
treis··on Eat Real Food
You're probably talking about dry weight. My can says 6g protein / 130 g. I'm about 100kg and to hit the 1.6 g protein/kg I need 160g of protein. 6g/130g * 3500 g is 161 g of protein.
treis··on Eat Real Food
The bigger problem is nutritional density. I tried meeting the 1-1.5 g/kg protein level through a vegetarian whole grains diet and it's a lot of flipping food. Equivalent of like 3kg of chickpeas a day to make it.

It was definitely eye opening on the sort of ancient benefit of meat. It's really hard to reach your muscular potential without it.

treis··on Jensen: 'We've done our country a great disservice' by offshoring
Maybe not literally all but certainly most. We hardly have any farmers or factory workers compared to what we had at one point. They've mostly moved onto cushy office jobs.
treis··on I rebooted my social life
Honestly I don't talk much. But generally things related to whatever we're doing, entertainment (books, movies, sports, and so on), my kid when I had him, and now that I am getting older a bit more philosophical meaning of life type stuff.
treis··on I rebooted my social life
>Everyone ALSO loves talking about themselves

I see this a lot and it's interesting because I don't like to talk about myself much. Doubly so about work. I wonder how many of us there are.

treis··on Firefox is becoming an AI browser and the internet is not at all happy about it
Why would my browser that is used to display static HTML need high performance 3D rendering or a low level assembly target?

The websites that use LLMs don't exist yet. Think of something like meetup.com. Instead of that you ask your LLM for something to do this weekend. It finds events, other people looking for something to do, and you have an ad hoc meetup.

Beyond that it's like looking at a blackberry and predicting what it'll be used for in the future. Hard to say "oh gay men will use that for casual hookups and it'll be called Grindr".

treis··on Firefox is becoming an AI browser and the internet is not at all happy about it
If they were training their own foundational model your analogy would be on the mark. But this is more like porting a command line application to a GUI.
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