tmansour

It's really hard to say. We tend to be dynamic in how list markets: we monitor whatever is trending every week/month, and create a market out of those things.

I guess the number of markets we post next year will be a function of how crazy 2023 will be. In some ways, we capitalize on volatility.

Antifragile...

We're not doing sports for now. We're focused on events that have broad economic/social utility (not that sports doesn't, but it doesn't as clearly).

For now we're focusing on the US. We're expanding to other jurisdiction soon... potentially in 2023.

Intrade was awesome. Great respect for that platform.

We're doing a fully regulated, full scale version of Intrade. Regulation allows us to take this to the next level: getting market makers onboard, integrating with brokers, etc.

Glad you find the economic calendar useful. We're currently thinking of ways to improve/expand it...any events you'd like to see on there?

There are definitely areas where automating market resolutions/creating smart contracts can be useful....the most important thing is having a very well-defined contract upfront, so that outcomes are clear, the validators are authoritative, and unexpected edge cases don't come up. This is something we spend a lot of time thinking about when listing markets.

Kalshi is the first federally (CFTC) regulated exchange allowed to do this. We spent 3 years working with regulators to get this regulated and opened up the market for events trading.

Here's more about our regulatory status: https://kalshi.com/learn/how-is-kalshi-regulated?

We're evaluating the idea of adding pictures (they were there in an earlier version). Totally agreed it makes the site looks livelier.

Kalshi doesn't currently involve any crypto. We're fully centralized, regulated by the federal government, and customer funds go to a traditional bank, where they sit in segregated member accounts.

Though we've built our exchange from the ground up, we're focusing on innovating on the markets side, rather than the financial plumbing side.

There's a fundamental difference between gambling and financial trading.

In gaming, you are trading on risks that are artificial, eg. betting on a dice roll or on a roulette spin. Those risks do not need to exist, and they risk solely for the purpose of betting.

In the derivatives markets, the risks you're trading on are not artificial, they're already existant. The purpose of markets is to transfer those risks from people that bear them and need to offload them (hedgers) to people that have appetite for them (speculators).

This debate has been at the core of these markets since the dawn of derivatives markets. See this fascinating Court Case on grain futures: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Board_of_Trade_v._Chri....

At the time, there was a lot of debate on whether grain futures were gambling. The final decision by justing Wendell was not because (paraphrasing) "sure a lot of people will speculate, but saying that these markets exist purely for speculation is off - there's a subset of participants that need to hedge risk, and that makes these markets crucial" (note: intent to deliver was the early form of hedging).

The original response:

"[T]he plaintiffs chamber of commerce is, in the first place, a great market, where … is transacted a large part of the grain and provision business of the world. Of course, in a modern market, contracts are not confined to sales for immediate delivery. People will endeavor to forecast the future, and to make agreements according to their prophecy. Speculation of this kind by competent men is the self-adjustment of society to the probable .... It is true that the success of the strong induces imitation by the weak, and that incompetent persons bring themselves to ruin by undertaking to speculate in their turn. But legislatures and courts generally have recognized that the natural evolutions of a complex society are to be touched only with a very cautious hand. .... It seems to us an extraordinary and unlikely proposition that the dealings which give its character to the great market for future sales in this country are to be regarded as mere wagers or as ‘pretended’ buying or selling, without any intention of receiving and paying for the property bought, or of delivering the property sold, within the meaning of the Illinois act"

+1 on this. This is not how any of us operate.

Regulation in this space is really tough and thorough - we've been battling through it for years now (also explains why this post is coming so long after the end of our batch!).

This article had a bunch of interesting insider info on what went down (most of it was news to me as well): https://www.capitolaccountdc.com/p/gambling-on-politics-an-i...

Thanks for the input! We have plans to expand many of our existing markets, and introduce many new markets. Geopolitics is definitely an area we're excited to grow over time. If you have any specific suggestions, please send them our way!

The determination of an event will vary by contract, but are all external sources of validation, listed in the contract up front. For example, the moon landing resolves to yes if NASA announces by X date. GDP is resolved by Bureau of Economic Analysis, Inflation by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and so on.

Generally, event contracts are legal contracts technically. We have a team that spent a ton of time developing templates to incorporate all types of events (hard problem). Here's an example definition: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/regulatory/ruleb...

The time has finally come. After nearly a year of engagement with the CFTC (federal regulator) to enable Kalshi to list election markets on our exchange, the CFTC just announced that it is seeking public comment on our market for a 30-day review period before it will make a determination.

The election markets are the holy grail and this is a critical step towards our mission of expanding access to the utility of the derivative markets from Wall Street to Main Street. I just shared our public statement in response to the CFTC in a tweet, I'd really appreciate if you would tweet or retweet it, so we can build public awareness of election markets and their purpose. I'd also appreciate you submitting a comment with specific examples of how you would use the contract to hedge your economic exposure. https://twitter.com/mansourtarek_/status/1564315602184978435...

Thank you!!