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timoth3y

3,111 karma · joined June 9, 2016

Personal: https://www.disruptingjapan.com/
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timoth3y··on Woolly mammoth 'de-extinction' is nearing reality
The point is not how much they weigh, but that we can't survive without them.

It's not just the digestive tract. Our eyes, out lungs, even our skin rely on a huge diversity of specialized and symbiotic organisms to function correctly. This ecosystem evolved in parallel with our DNA, and it's been lost for the mammoth.

Yes, it seems we have the technology to create something with this DNA, but it won't be a mammoth as the organism existed in the past. It may not be viable, and it may suffer horribly.

timoth3y··on Woolly mammoth 'de-extinction' is nearing reality
They are not operating from the full DNA, but "enough DNA to piece together functional genomes."

However, even if we had pristine copies of mammoth DNA we could not re-create a mammoth.

Complex organisms like mammoths (or humans) are not fully defined by DNA. They are an ecosystem of bacteria and smaller organisms. We don't know the number for mammoths, but about 40% of the cells in the human body are not human. They don't have our DNA. Without them, however, we could not even process food. We get those organisms, not from DNA, but from other humans and the environment around us.

These scientists may be able to create something, and hopefully something that will not suffer horribly, but de-extinction is not nearing realty.

timoth3y··on First engine in history without cylinders/pistons: Turns on its own without fuel
If by "the first in history" they mean "yet another."

Wankel engines, various EV engines, ran jets, etc have been in commercial use for decades.

timoth3y··on What happens to our breath when we type, tap, scroll
A lot of great answers here, and I would add the book "10% Happier" to the list. There is also a worthwhile companion app, but I prefer Insight Timer for an app.
timoth3y··on The oldest ecosystems on Earth
That was an enjoyable read, but the oldest ecosystems on Earth by far are the deep-sea hydrothermal vents. Many remain pristine and are quite possibly the origin of life on Earth.
timoth3y··on Geothermal Power, Cheap and Clean, Could Help Run Japan. So Why Doesn’t It?
Years ago, I helped spin up TEPCO's (Japan's largest power utility) innovation and investment group.

Geothermal has a lot of potential in Japan, but as the article points out it's a political nightmare.

The data and research ahas been done. There are plenty of real-world examples of geothermal plants operating in Japan for years with no impact on local hot springs. Opposition from hot spring operators is real and it's been going on for decades.

A big part of the problem is that the developers are not just negotiating with local governments and the population as a whole, but effectively with families individually. The way things are structured, just one family can usually stall negotiations.

"Well yes, we've seen your fancy science and heard your promises, but grandad isn't convinced. It's just not worth taking the risk of putting our onsen out of business."

To be fair, these people generally are not trying to extort money from the developers, and seem to be sincere in their beliefs.

In recent years, the Japanese government has started allowing limited development on national lands to combat this. Despite it's technical promise, most of the time geothermal is not worth the political effort required.

timoth3y··on Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?
The problem is not that automation will eliminate our jobs.

The problem is that we have created an economy where that is a bad thing.

timoth3y··on “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice
That was an overly simplistic and silly take. But there is a kernel of truth to it that has always bothered me a little.

I've started four startups with two exists and two failures. In every cases there were deals that, if they had come through, would have have pushed the startups to huge success. There were were also deals that, if they had not happened, would have killed that startup.

If you are skilled, you prepare. You plan contingencies. You are ready to take advantage of any opportunity that comes, but after that, a lot is outside of your control and comes down to luck.

The line between success and failure is often razor thin, but the world does not see it that way.

If you are an inch over the line you are a success; a role model. You are expected to share the secret to your success. If you are an inch behind the line, well maybe you had better go work for someone else and let the successful people talk.

Many successful founders give terrible advice, and many failed founders have fantastic insights.

timoth3y··on $6.96B was raised by private longevity companies in 2022
Promising longevity to the wealthy has been an effective way to raise money for thousands of years.
timoth3y··on Mini Wind Turbines for Rooftops: ‘Up to 50% More Power’ and No Spinning Blades
> their boxy turbines generate energy in 50% greater amounts then a solar panel

Huh? That's like saying "The wind is blowing 50% faster than the sun is shining"

It's a nonsense comparison from a company making what seems like questionable vaporware.

=== Edit : I couldn't resist one more.

> I like to think of this as kind of disruptive and complimentary to the solar business

Ah yes. Disruptive and complimentary.

timoth3y··on A mistake that killed Japan’s software industry?
Hi. Tim here.

I find the "it's just Japanese culture" explanations to be weak sauce. Examining the market and political forces at play will usually get you closer to the truth.

The fact is, Japanese companies have taken big, creative, successful risks in many industries. If you look at the developers who work in console gaming, they find ways to push those machines far beyond what they were designed to do. If you've been in Japan for a while, I'm sure you've seen the amazing levels of creativity that exist here in both engineering and the arts.

It's not that Japanese are more risk-averse than Americans. It's that the risk-reward equation is different in Japan. On average, people are behaving rationally in both places.

If you want to change the "culture", change the risk-reward balance. That's why I find it more productive to look at market forces and game theory than attribute things to "Japanese culture:".

timoth3y··on A mistake that killed Japan’s software industry?
I do. I don't want to post it here. If you go the the disruptingjapan.com site, you'll find it pretty easily.
timoth3y··on A mistake that killed Japan’s software industry?
Great questions!

> 1) Could you share examples of bad, good, and open-source Japanese software Outside of the gaming industry and except for Ruby.

"Outside of Gaming and Ruby" cuts out a lot. There is plenty of very good software, but not much that has made it outside of Japan. Nulab has made some cool stuff. I love what Mui Labs are doing with UI.

> 2) Does they have some kind of the hacker culture? We are getting there. I think there are almost two "hacker cultures" in Japan. There are developers who model their lives on the Silicon Vally lifestyle, and there are people who just love programming. The overlap is not as large as you might imagine.

> 3) May you know links which answer question: Why Europe/Brazil/Turkey/Russia/etc failed to build well-known and international software companies, FAANG-like. I'm not an expert in those counties, so I don't have a great deal of insight. During the dot-com book, companies like SAP and Nokia did great, but this time around the US has certainly been the winner in this winner-take-all marketplace.

timoth3y··on A mistake that killed Japan’s software industry?
Hi. I'm Tim, the author. I'm delighted to see the interest in this subject on Hacker News and happy to answer any questions.

To group and respond to a few common comments:

> 1) Is this unique to Japan? Most other countries have not developed world-dominating software industries. That is true, but most other countries did not enter the PC era after spending several disrupting and dominating multiple global industries. So, expectations of Japan were much higher.

> 2. Was cloud computing really that pivotal? Hell, yes! Being able to prototype and get a handful of paying beta customers for a few thousand dollars changed everything. It totally short-circuited the VC "experts" who would say "no one will ever pay for that".

timoth3y··on Musicians wage war against evil robots (2012)
I'm kind of surprised that this article did not mention John Philip Sousa, who was both one of the most successful "recording artists" of that time and one of the most outspoken opponents of recorded music.

(If you are American, you definitely know Sousa. Think of any patriotic march you've ever heard. Sousa probably wrote that.)

Sousa was not so much worried about the economic effects, but about how the new technology would change the social function of music. It would change what music was. He worried that instead of people gathering around the family or neighborhood pianist and singing together, they would be alone in their own rooms passively listening.

He worried that children would no longer gather on neighbourhood stoops to make up their own little songs and sing them together, but would all start passively consuming the same music as every one else in the country.

Sousa was worried that recoding technology would change music from active social interactions where we create music together into isolated, passive consumption.

Sousa was right.

timoth3y··on Ask HN: What to do with old computer books?
> I can't really see there's much demand for Java 1.3, or Dreamweaver 4.

Designate one bookshelf as your "memory shelf". Keep the books on the languages you learned the most from or that remind you of your best (or most horrible) projects, and place them on that shelf.

Display it prominently, and it will be become a conversation starter for every nerd that comes to your home. "OMG, I haven't thought about Dreamweaver in years!". You can then share war stories.

It will only get more fun as the years pass.

timoth3y··on Tom Lehrer has released all of his songs into the public domain
A man after my own heart!
timoth3y··on Ghosn’s daring escape cost his extraction crew their freedom
For reference the US federal government has a 99% conviction rate.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/11/only-2-of-f...

== Edit 91.8% if you include the cases that are dropped.

timoth3y··on Intentionally making close friends
“If you go out looking for friends, they are scarce. If you go out to be a friend, you'll find them everywhere.”

― Zig Ziglar

timoth3y··on How is Japanese web design different?
I've lived in Japan for 30 years, and built several Internet based startups in that time. Three quick things the author does not seem to really consider.

1. Japan's information-dense design pre-dates the Internet. If you look at commercial fliers from the 80s (and probably before) until today, they have similar information-dense designs.

2. This design is not a result of a "critical shortage of competent IT professionals." Just because something is different doesn't mean it is wrong or the makers are incompetent. Some of these e-commerce firms have thousands of good developers. Designs are extensively A/B tested. They are common because they work.

3. Hacker News is also very info-dense and has changed little over past decade. It's not due to incompetence, but because we users like it this way. Now, imagine we had a steady steam of designers posting about how backwards we are and how they needed to "fix" the site to improve our experience. That's what it often feels like reading these articles from Japan.

timoth3y··on What to do if a nuclear disaster is imminent [pdf]
Place your head firmly between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye.
timoth3y··on Vocaloid 6
Thanks for turning me on to that.

It's definitely not my thing, but Tsumiki's use of vocals is interesting and well executed.

timoth3y··on Twitter to Lay Off 25% of Workforce
Maybe this is the right move. That's not what bothers me.

Musk's joking about firing 1,700 people bothers me. It might be a necessary, but these people have lives, families, mortgages, and commitments. Getting fired is never easy.

But Musk shows up carrying a sink laughing and joking about "Let that sink in", and the Internet yucks it up and talks about what a clever boy Elon is.

The unnecessary cruelty and the utter lack of empathy -- or even the need to feign empathy -- is what bothers me.

timoth3y··on Meta's Shares Plunge by 25%, Zuckerberg Asks Investors for Patience
> 'firs they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you and then you win'

Sure, and there is 90% attrition at each stage. Most ideas are stupid. Some stupid ideas get enough attention that people laugh at them. When incumbents resist a new idea, they usually with.

Unless you have a very compelling strategy on how to survive this filtering. In all likelihood, people are laughing at your idea because it is really bad.

timoth3y··on Godfather of Self-Driving Cars Says the Tech Is Going Nowhere
Even if they never get anything else to work, it will have all have been worth it for self parallel parking.

I enjoy driving, so I don't want an AI to take the wheel, but the first time I had a car tell me "Yep, I can fit in there" and then park itself in the spot, was the most joyous tech-experience of my entire life.

I was in a good mood for the next few days.

Even if all progress stops, they have made the world a slightly better place.

timoth3y··on Someday aliens will land and all will be fine until we explain our calendar
An interesting aside the Cotsworth Calendar is such an obvious approach to the months problem it makes me wonder why it was not adopted in the first place.

We have 13 months of 28 days each. The 9th is always a Monday the 19th is always a Thursday. "Two months from now" always means the same thing and always means the same number of days.

The extra day is New Years Day. It's a holiday and does not belong to any month - or belongs to it's own month if you prefer. On Leap Years there are two of these days.

timoth3y··on 4-Day Workweek Brings No Loss of Productivity, Companies in Experiment Say
We should be skeptical of these announcements.

Over the past few years, we've seen a steady stream of companies issuing press releases about these kinds of experiments showing a four-day workweek is just as (or more) productive. The firms pat themselves on the back about how forward-thinking they are and talk about their commitment to employee well-being.

However, none of these companies actually move to a four-day workweek. It seems like theater at this point.

timoth3y··on Refreezing Earth's poles feasible and cheap, new study finds
“Every complex problem has a solution which is simple, direct, plausible — and wrong.” -- H. L. Mencken
timoth3y··on The term ‘quiet quitting’ is worse than nonsense
I mentioned this on another thread, but it's work repeating here.

The acceptance of the term "Quiet Quitting" tells us a lot about how we currently view the relationship between labor and management.

Somehow we have accepted that showing up when you are supposed to and doing the tasks you are required to is not "doing your job" but rather "quiet quitting".

It does not seem that these people are goldbricking or maliciously complying or really doing anything wrong at all. They are just doing their jobs. Not going above and beyond may be a bad career move, but it's not "quitting" or somehow stealing from your employer.

timoth3y··on Analysis Shows 'Quiet Fleecing' of US Workers–Not Quiet Quitting–Is Real Problem
The general acceptance of the term "Quiet Quitting" tells us quite a bit about how we currently view the relationship between labor and employer.

Somehow we have accepted the idea that showing up when you are supposed to and doing the tasks you are required to is not "doing your job" but rather "quiet quitting".

It does not seem that these people are goldbricking or maliciously complying or really doing anything wrong at all. They are just doing their jobs. Doing the minimum required is a bad career move, but it's certainly not "quitting" or somehow stealing from your employer.

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